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    05/03/2016 - 11:35
    Crude oil time-spreads have completely dislocated from inventories. Historically, such dislocations have proved to be short lived. We expect that either spot prices will sell-off again or the back...

Philly Fed Misses For 5th Consecutive Month, Employment Index Lowest Since September 2009

Tyler Durden's picture


Even though in a centrally-planned world nobody cares about fundamental data anymore, and high frequency economics can't hold a candle to high frequency trading, today's Philly Fed was not good, missing expectations for the 5th month in a row, and printing in negative territory for the 4 month in a row, coming at -7.1 on expectations of -5.0, and down from -12.9. Sadly for the market, the data was not horrible enough to suggest that despite the seasonally adjusted economic data euphoria from earlier this wee, that the Chairsatan would surprise to the upside and preannounce MOAR NEW QE in 2 weeks. The data, however, was quite realistic, in that unlike BLS data which lately only keep track of part-time jobs, the Employment index in the Philly Fed printed at -8.6, the lowest since September 2009, and likely the most realistic indication of the jobs picture possible. And with prices paid soaring far over priced received, margins got crushed even more, as US companies continue to discover with every passing day.

Some meaningless pictures.

And some meaningless text from the meaningless survey itself:

Indicators Suggest Continued Weakness

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased 6 points, to a reading of ?7.1. This marks the fourth consecutive negative reading for the index but also its highest reading since May (see Chart 1). Nearly 30 percent of firms reported declines in activity this month, exceeding the 22 percent that reported increases. Indexes for new orders and shipments remained negative. The new orders index improved one point, while the shipments index fell 3 points.


Labor market conditions at the reporting firms deteriorated slightly this month. The current employment index, at ?8.6, remainednear its reading in the previous month. The percent of firms reporting decreases in employment (15 percent) exceeded the percent reporting increases (7 percent). Firms also indicated fewer hours worked this month: The average workweek index increased 3 points but posted its fifth consecutive negative reading.


Price Indexes for Output Near Steady Indexes for prices paid and prices received both increased from their readings in July. The prices paid index increased from 3.7 to 11.2. The percentage of firms reporting higher input prices was 26 percent; 19 percent  reported higher prices last month. Fifteen percent of the firms reported declines in input prices. With respect to their own manufactured goods, however, firms reported nearsteady prices. While the percentage reporting an increase in product prices (13 percent) was slightly higher than the percentage reporting a decrease (10 percent), 73 percent reported steady prices. The prices received index edged up slightly, from to 1.6 to 2.8.

Blah blah blah (More here). Less talky, more printy.

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Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:18 | 2710205 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

But spain is getting bailed out by China again. Or something like that. Maybe China is getting an ECB seat?

Can't keep up with the odd lots trading and the reasons why i should be #btfd today.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:20 | 2710227 fireangelmaverick
fireangelmaverick's picture

"coming at -7.1 on expectations of -5.0, and down from -12.9"....should that be  UP from -12.9?


Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:23 | 2710255 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

You know that part where Wiley E Coyote heads over the cliff and right before he falls he looks straight at the camera and blinks?

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:24 | 2710256 ekm
ekm's picture

Any bad news makes the crude oil price go higher hoping that the Fed will do QE.

The idiotic morons either do not understand or are really idiots that the MAIN REASON the economy is getting worse is because the crude oil prices are not ALLOWED to go down and oil is being sent to storage but not consumed.

Sooner or later storages will be full and the oil will be unloaded into the market causing a sudden collapse.

How desperate are these people? This is beyond lunaticism.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:25 | 2710272 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture


Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:25 | 2710274 Snakeeyes
Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:27 | 2710285 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Missed it by <        that      > much.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:35 | 2710302 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yeah yeah nice charts. Hey can anybody tell me what happened on Everybody Loves Raymond last night?

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:30 | 2710318 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

Ahhh, I was wondering why the market just started to rally

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:37 | 2710369 madcows
madcows's picture

Well, nobody is buying anything (except food, gas and guns), so no company is manufacturing anything.  Brilliant, I know.

In other news, NEBR is late for the party, again.  Lactation Achooman (ECRI) called it in March.... R-E-C-E-S-S-I-O-N.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:49 | 2710466 adr
adr's picture

I just got the latest price from one manufacturer of my product, $8.10 per unit, up from $7.25. My wholesale price is $9.10 for $20 retail.

Do you think there is any profit in that $1?

Not even close, I will lose money if I have to pay that price. I can't raise my wholesale price because the retailer won't take less margin out of the $10.90 they make. They actually want more margin because sales are down. Of course the consumer isn't paying retail anymore, and will only buy during a 20% off sale.

Do you see the problem there?

A real company making real products can't survive. We can barely make payroll. BUT THE FUCKERS AT FACEBOOK THAT HAVE NEVER ACTUALLY WORKED A DAY IN THEIR LIVES JUST CASHED OUT FOR MILLIONS.

The stock markt does not represent the economy. But just like any con some people get very rich and get away with it. The Dark Knight moment will be coming very soon, I fear.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:58 | 2710523 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Out of cuiriosity. What do you make?

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 12:34 | 2710940 SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

Same here, sales are down and so we do not get a huge discount from the raw materials. Since we do not get a huge discount like normal we have to raise prices, as people have stopped buying those products because the cost went up so now we have discontinued some part numbers further dimishing profits...basically a downward spiral. Going to get my EBT card soon and me some Obamabucks Bitchez!

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 15:21 | 2711781 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Your retailer is buying for 9.10 and selling at 20.00? The retailer is ripping you off. You should be able to find other buyers that will pay you a fair price.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 11:01 | 2710540 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Time to pound the SPX higher.


Thu, 08/16/2012 - 11:07 | 2710564 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I love the way all these Corps. are blaming revenue misses on the strong dollar! These aholes aren't repatriating their profits, of which in many cases 50% or MORE are derived from over seas! 


Thu, 08/16/2012 - 11:15 | 2710602 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Looks like we need to sacrifice more muppets on the alter to please the gods.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 11:59 | 2710837 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Amazing how many corps are reporting revenue down, but profits up.

So bullish!

And the Philly Fed report has invigorated the markets, which have turned upward around noon.

Fundamentals are back!


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