Physical Silver Surges To Record 30% Premium Over Spot, In Backwardation

Tyler Durden's picture




One of the main reasons why we have been not so focused on paper representations of real currencies (i.e., gold and silver) is that ever since the MF Global debacle, in which it became all too clear that if physical gold can be "hypothecated" via conflicting ownership, then there is no way that paper versions of precious metals are viable and indeed credible. After all, the only real owner at the end of the day is the certificate holder, which as we have explained before, is none other than DTCC's Cede & Co. Good luck collecting when the daisy chain of counterparties starts falling. Which leaves physical. And for a good sense of what the "real" price of the metal is, not one determined by institutions whose interest it is to preserve the hegemony of paper, one can either try to procure gold and silver at a retail merchant, or one can look to the premium of a dedicated physical ETF over spot. Such as Eric Sprott's PSLV which as of today is trading at an all time high premium of 30%! In other words, someone is willing to pay up to 30% over spot for the right to be closer to the physical metal than merely have a paper claim on a paper claim (pre hyper rehypothecation and what not). Incidentally the last NAV premium over spot record was back in April 2011 just as silver went parabolic and the entire commodity complex experienced the infamous May 1 takedown when it collapsed by $8 dollars in milliseconds on glaringly obvious coordinated intervention. Said otherwise, like back then, so now there is an actual shortage, manifesting itself in the premium. And while last time its was the price plunge which eased supply needs, we are not so sure how one will be able to spin a collapse of the current, far lower paper silver price.

But wait, there's more: As Keith Weiner explains below, silver also happens to be in backwardation. While we have covered the topic before, here is Keith with his explanation of what this means, although for those who like the punchline here it is, as above: shortage.

The Arbitrageur: Silver In Backwardation

March silver has been flirting with backwardation since the end of 2011, and today it has moved more firmly into backwardated territory.  This is extremely bullish for silver, and let me explain why.

Backwardation means (and I am oversimplifying a bit here) that a futures contract is cheaper than buying the physical good in the cash market.  To understand the meaning of this, the first question is this: Is it possible to warehouse the good?  If not, then the futures market is simply the market’s opinion of what the price is likely to be on the contract expiration. 

Silver, unlike interest rate futures for example, can be warehoused.  This means it is possible to simultaneously buy physical silver in the spot market and sell a future in the futures market.  One has no net exposure to the price.  One is exposed only to the spread.  This is a simple arbitrage.  One can “carry” a good (buy spot, sell future).

The possibility of this and other arbitrages in a good that can be warehoused changes the whole structure of the futures market.  One cannot look at the price of March silver as a prediction of the March price.  Absent a shortage or other anomaly, the March price should be close to the spot price + the cost of carry (interest rate and storage).  March silver should be at a slight premium to spot silver.  This condition is normal, and it is called “contango“.

But that is not the case for March silver (or Jul 2013 and beyond).  Those contracts are priced too low for anyone to make any money carrying silver. Instead, it would be profitable to de-carry silver.  See the graph for a picture of the basis (the annualized profit one would make to carry) and the cobasis (the profit to de-carry).  The basis is negative and falling; the cobasis is positive and rising.

A de-carry is the inverse of a carry.  One simultaneously sells silver, and buys a future against it.  Silver (and gold) are unlike all other commodities in that the above-ground inventories are massive, compared to annual mine production.  Whereas in wheat, for example, there is a genuine shortage before the harvest.  If one wants to buy wheat two weeks prior, one must pay a large premium compared to the first contract settled after the harvest.

In a normal commodity, backwardation means shortage.  The backwardation develops because no one has any of the physical good.  So they cannot decarry it, and thus the spot-future spread can go deeper and deeper into backwardation.

But in gold and silver it means something else entirely.  People have the metal.  But for whatever reason(s), they choose not to take this free money.  In the silver market right now, trust is in short supply.  In the past (think fall 2010 through spring 2011), this has been resolved by sharply rising prices which coax fresh metal out of hiding.

Originally appearing at The Daily Capitalist

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Fri, 01/06/2012 - 16:16 | 2040383 dereksatkinson
dereksatkinson's picture

Took you long enough.. Getting slow with age.  ;)

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 16:27 | 2040399 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

No other investment is more obvious at this time.

Physical silver MUST be bought.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IiarVvZguY

and

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCCuLMgyUgY

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 16:28 | 2040424 tmosley
tmosley's picture

At the same time, everyone should note tht PSLV is NOT physical.  Sprott is a good person so far as I can tell, but one angel isn't much help when you dive headfirst into a sea of paper controlled by demons.

It is probably good for those who can't get their money out of the system, though.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 16:35 | 2040449 bernorange
bernorange's picture

I've been watching the inventory of 100ozt silver bars at apmex fall to very low levels over the last few weeks.  Tulving is also reporting a very low inventory (for them at any rate) of silver.  It feels like February 2011 all over again.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 16:38 | 2040463 tmosley
tmosley's picture

It's been a long time since I saw any 1000oz silver bars for sale ANYWHERE.  I wonder why that is? ;)

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 16:53 | 2040536 XitSam
XitSam's picture

So when or how does this premium over spot show up in the price of silver eagles or 5 and 10 oz bars?

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 16:58 | 2040547 trav7777
trav7777's picture

bullshit article by Tyler; PSLV is paper, not silver.

Real silver is not 30% over spot. 

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:00 | 2040553 fuu
fuu's picture

Right on schedule.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:11 | 2040580 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Remember Gringos, The Cabale controls the Dollar Price of PM's.

 

So no matter the REAL PRICE should be AU $25,000 and AG $200., the paper price is what Matters.

 

Mr. Ben Shalom has UNLIMITED PAPER FIATS to keep this SHIT going. Until he doesn't...

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:20 | 2040630 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

125-1 ratio???

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:31 | 2040665 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Well just sayin'...

 

If they eventually try backing a good portion of the paper fiats out there right now with PM's, it could be $55,000, AU and $650. AG.

 

Watch that 10K Chain on your neck...

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:37 | 2040690 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Yep...

The Hedge Funds and CB's of the future will be trading Van Gogh paintings and Gold, instead of the Worthless Paper Promisses of today...

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 18:00 | 2040771 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Silver Nuts:

TD is providing you with actionable advice that you could use to get more of your precious silver by simply selling what you have now and buying a futures contract for delivery later.  I am baffled by your reactions.  You are a fickle bunch with a penchant for losing money and poor reading comprehension skills is all I can figure.  Try reading the damn article you clowns!

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 18:02 | 2040775 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Pfft, yeah, then we can get MF Global'd.  No thanks.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 18:07 | 2040794 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

TD is providing you with actionable advice that you could use to get more of your precious silver by simply selling what you have now and buying a futures contract for delivery later...

Tell you what... Why don't you just sell me all your physical now (paper spot), and then you can go buy all the future contracts you want with the "bride of MF Global" or whoever & we'll call it a day...

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 20:15 | 2041158 Pants McPants
Pants McPants's picture

Well said, sir.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 21:30 | 2041316 clymer
clymer's picture

Hey Trav (sevensevensevenseven):

I was going to respond with a snide retort, but your aggressive looking image caused me pause..

(clown)

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 19:00 | 2040960 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Yet no one with any sense will do so. Not even those on the street, who never turn down "risk-free" money. 

If you're not trolling, go read Prof. Fekete's "Last Contango in Washington." It might help you understand where the risk really lies.

http://www.professorfekete.com/articles%5CAEFTheLastContangoInWashington...

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 22:03 | 2041391 Ponzi Unit
Ponzi Unit's picture

Did Stax forget "sarc off"?

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:22 | 2040638 you enjoy myself
you enjoy myself's picture

until June that is....

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:34 | 2040683 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Nothing lasts forever. Not even this.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 00:17 | 2041609 Marigold
Marigold's picture

Your Gold / Silver ratio is a bit out, I would suggest you recalculate to reflect reality.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 19:25 | 2041009 trav7777
trav7777's picture

you have some problem with the truth, fuu?

Real silver is NOT 30% premium to spot.  The headline is a lie.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 20:13 | 2041094 fuu
fuu's picture

I'm fine with the truth. I also agree that physical silver can be had for under a 30% premium.

 

Isn't PSLV Physical Silver Trust? "So Physical Silver Surges to record 30% premium to spot." See it was a clever bit.

 

Bonus round: Does the spot in the title refer to physical spot price in the retail market or the spot price of the silver owned by the Trust per share?

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 21:22 | 2041304 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Spot price reflects risky counterparty paper in a rigged exchange that is levered to the moon and undependably convertible to physical silver (ask anyone long silver in the COMEX in May of last year).

In that sense spot price is discounted to the real thing and represents a continuous buying opportunity at retail today.

Paper that is unlevered and dependably convertible to physical silver (within the terms of the PSLV trust program) carries a 30% premium.

I submit that the premium will go much higher and is a reflection of the both the real price and decoupling of the commodity from the derivative.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:07 | 2040584 TradingTroll
TradingTroll's picture

Correct

Just like in '08 when the boyz in the theatre were crying wolf over shortages, here in Vancouver Canada it was-and still is- all you can eat for 7% over spot. Check yourself: www.vbca.ca

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:13 | 2040607 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Spam site.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:50 | 2040731 TradingTroll
TradingTroll's picture

Fuck you tmosley. I have watched your inane postings the past year, and I would rather have a discussion with a can of spam. I hope you have to pay 100% premiums. Thankfully I have many more brain cells than you and in 2003, when 1USD bought $1.50 Canadian, made the correct decision to move from Seattle to Vancouver, because at least in Vancouver we have something called an economy (I know, quaint) and a middle class (I know, old fashioned) and I can't get my neighbor infinitely detained because his dog crapped on my lawn.

The little house I bought in Vancouver in 2003 for $450,000 is worth $1.3m today. I just got the mail from BC assessment.

You are just an early example of the cesspool the US will become. By 2016 the President of the US won't represent the status quo, which might be important to you because you aren't the President. So unlike when your crack-whore girlfriend, or your AA buddy, or the guy behind you at the payday loan center, calls you a loser, in my case when I call you a loser it is 100% true. Youy can take it to the bank. Where they will remind you it must be a Canadian bank.

Loser.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:53 | 2040749 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Fuck me?  You are the one posting a spam site that goes no-where while making nonsensical claims.  I was a buyer of silver in 2008.  You lie when you say that it was easily available.  It wasn't.  The largest sellers had a turnaround that was four times longer than normal.

And enjoy your real estate crash, you idiot.  "It could never happen here".  Herp.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 19:05 | 2040968 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Wow, looks like you found his launch button.

In other news, there's still someone left who brags of home price appreciation. How quaint. Of course, it's that tax-man that did the appreciating, so I'm getting a kick out of it.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 19:18 | 2040992 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I did chuckle. But I gave him 2 points for being smart enough to get the fuck out of seattle.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 14:39 | 2051062 wkwillis
wkwillis's picture

greaterfool is the website for the Canadian real estate market. Funny, but repetitive.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 19:21 | 2040999 oddjob
oddjob's picture

I think he might of meant http://www.vbce.ca/index.cfm?fuseaction=fx_services.Gold&Silver , which strangely enough is where I Buy my Maples.

B.C. property assessments came out yesterday, everything down except Vancouver.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 20:13 | 2041151 TradingTroll
TradingTroll's picture

My house is up 7% over last year. North Vancouver.

I will take the tax hit thanks.

Tony Ma runs VBCE. Lineup everyday. More mining guys in there buying PMs than any other PM dealer in N. America. Never an Ag or Au shortage. Quartermain (SSRI, PVG.TO and Giustra (Lions Gate etc) and Beatty (PAAS) are clients

But Mosley can't find the PM quotes on the website!!!

Someone as dumb as him should be paying 50% over spot. Edit: should not be allowed to buy PMs

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 20:19 | 2041169 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Why aren't you doing the smart thing and selling your overpriced home and buying undervalued PM's?

 

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 20:41 | 2041219 akak
akak's picture

Because he is in Canadia now, where the follow-the-herd mentality is, if anything, even stronger than in the USA --- particulary in British Columbia, the capital of smug conformity, hyper-political-correctness and statist central-planning fantasies.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 21:46 | 2041356 Angus McHugepenis
Angus McHugepenis's picture

I used to live there in that overpriced scam of wanna be rich people who masqurade as homeless people. I remember 10 years ago when we would be demolishing 1950's era houses on quiet streets and little lots in the city because the new owner wanted to put up a 3-story McMansion on the lot. The property alone without a house on it was $500k. Property taxes were unreal, even then.

We tore down many beautiful old houses, and literally transformed 1940-1950 era neighborhoods into some of the most stunning pieces of modern architectural SHIT you've ever seen. It was like erasing history. And nobody gave a shit. And everyone lived happily ever after saving the whales and hugging trees as history was destroyed in their pursuit of their own ambitions and wannabe status as they try to blend in with the truly rich... but can't quite cut it. They've got million dollar properties and can't even afford to pay cash for their morning Starbucks as they shuffle off to work pretending to be what they are not.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 22:24 | 2041420 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Well said, uh... dude. A clearly painted picture of the "zeitgeist" of that society, and an accurate microcosm of what has transpired in cities across the US as well.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 01:54 | 2041707 Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

I've gotta give creedance to his story though. The same thing happened in my neigborhood down south. Little 1950s ranch homes demolished for big McMansions. It's only a matter of time till the Jumbo loans stop, and the madness stops too. Just to the north of us is the largest community of low income folks in the region. It will look just like Detroit when the taxpayers leave. It was pretty heddy for a while there, when the boom was going it was the next Shangi La. Now it's only bidding time. That quick commute will give way to the fact that pesky home invasions are on the uptick. And then it's game over.

 

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 23:06 | 2041483 Sockeye
Sockeye's picture

Up arrow for you.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 10:25 | 2041961 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Bay of Pigs posed a sensible question when asking:

Why aren't you doing the smart thing and selling your overpriced home and buying undervalued PM's?

Because the only person that thinks TradingTroll's "investment" is worth 1.3 million CAD is the tax assessor, whose motivation is to assess homes' values as high as he can get away with.

If TradingTroll were to sell today, he'd realize a profit over his 2003 purchase price of 450,000 CAD, but I don't believe he'd get over 1 million CAD. If he's smart, as the deflating real estate bubble in BC spreads to Vancouver, he'll sell for any reasonable offer, because he who panics first panics best. If not, any profit gained on his "investment" of 450,000 vintage 2003 Canadian Dollars will be nominal only.

 

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 20:56 | 2041249 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Click on the link you posted, idiot.  It is an unregistered domain that goes to a spam site.

I wonder why you are so tremendously defensive?  It speaks volumes to your insecurities.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 21:54 | 2041379 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

you fucking horses ass.  you  probably  buy  a  couple  rounds at  a time,   try  buying  ten  million  dollars  worth asswipe

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:54 | 2040755 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I have 3 cases of spam and would be happy to arrange a meeting for a fee.  Or if you would like I can line them up on chairs and you can present to them as a group.  There is a group discount.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 19:34 | 2040864 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

It's a great time to buy a house in Canada (or Australia - or anywhere, bitchez)!

The guy who is chock full of confidence because of what his local Pound of Flesh assessor's office claims "his house" is now worth is hilarious. Don't mind what the assessing offices in Clark County, NV, Glencoe, Il, or Malibu, CA were telling homeowners their homes were worth in 2006.

And Canadian banks are very well capitalized, amidst a cheery Canadian Economic Backdrop, too.

*Brought to you buy RE/MAX Canada & The Canadian ASSociation of Realtors, proud sponsors of The 2012 Curling Championship @ The Devonshire Mall Lanes.

**p.s. - There actually are a very few places left where acquiring real estate right now may pay off, but these areas are few and far between, you're going to be up against those running OPM in competing with them to acquire it, and it's no skin off their sack if those investments actually end badly, also, as they have none of their skin on the table.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 20:55 | 2041247 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

I don't know that I agree with that.

It's a matter of what you intend to do with the houses- while it's true that it's a fool's game to take on maintainence and property tax on empty homes with the hopes that the market will recover right now, I would imagine that a guy who put the time in to learn how to purchase foreclosed properties and reinvented them as rentals could do pretty well.

Even though people lost the homes they "owned," they still need a place to live, and someone who previously held a mortgage is more likely to want a house to live in than readapting to apartement complex life.

I don't like it better than PMs, but it is a reasonable play right now.  Shelter is one of the most basic human needs, and while the property itself may not appreciate- or even continue to depreciate- it does still have the potential to generate a monthly income for the deed holder. 

 

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 21:20 | 2041299 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Or we could stop pretending for one second that we do not have a horrible fucking problem with the state which makes the though of buying property a stupid ass move until it's fucking evicted from your life.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 11:19 | 2041362 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Prometheus418

Two good friends have both done that, and are making good rents, on good homes.And, in a basically NON depressed area.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 22:58 | 2041473 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

The catch is going to be how to finance it all.  You have to be in good enough shape to have a downpayment and eligibility for the loan.  The folks who are in that kind of financial shape often aren't interested in becoming landlords.  Landlording is just another fuckin' job.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 23:11 | 2041488 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

There will be many catches.

Speaking from experience, one of those "catches" will be competing with Uncle Sam, and as just one example of what you're competing with in terms of a owner-rentor experience, Freddie Mac announced today that those who are unemployed get one year's of mortgage payment forebearance, bitchez!

Free Markets, Dolla' Dolla' Bill, Y'all!

Freddie Mac Is Going To Give The Unemployed A Break On Mortgage Payments For Up To A Year
Sat, 01/07/2012 - 00:36 | 2041628 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Fair call from the previous poster who said that being a landlord is just another job- it is.  I'm not afraid of work, but even so, I do better engineering than I would renting out property- it was just an observation that housing is only useless if you intend to flip it.  I don't imagine we'll see new McMansions again anytime too soon, but that doesn't mean everyone is going to move into tent cities.

As far as the mortgage forebearance goes, that doesn't mean much to a landlord, as it is directed at mortgage holders, not renters.  I did meet a guy about 10 years ago who was essentially a slum lord- he rented crappy places out without credit checks and didn't charge much.  His favorite renters were housing assistance slobs, because even though they rarely came up with their $30-40 portion of the monthly rent, he always got the checks the state made out for them.

It's like anything else, all in how you play it.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 02:15 | 2041720 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Mortgage forebearance by Freddie Mac/Banks (pressured by Uncle Sam) directly impacts private developers/owners of rentals, as those dispossessed of housing 'owned' on mortgages would have no alternative but to find alternative rental housing (or, in a highly unlikely scenario, given their recent dispossession on 'ownership,' a newly purchased home), which would fill more now empty (or semi-rented) rentals and drive rents higher.

Paying a mortgage on 'owned' property vs paying rent really doesn't amount to much of a difference over the short term, discounting for what used to be known as a slowly building equity value (timely acquired in the form of an alternative means of savings - even if alternative investments using the money allocated towards the mortgage+taxes+maintenance+expense would have yielded greater returns).

When people get to live in homes free of mortgage payments for long stretches of time, and when the MAC DADDY (pun intended) that is Freddie Mac now agrees to another year of mortgage payment forebearance (i.e. free rent), it directly impacts rental rates and occupancy rates for landlord competitors in the private sector.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:28 | 2040655 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Bullshit. I called several dealers then in the Vancouver/Victoria area. Nobody had any physical for a few weeks.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 20:21 | 2041174 TradingTroll
TradingTroll's picture

4:15pm Pacific
Called VBCE spoke to Edmund at head office
10x 100oz Ag bars 7% over spot

Other VBCE locations have stock for larger orders

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 20:39 | 2041215 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

In 2008. Not now.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 20:56 | 2041251 tmosley
tmosley's picture

He really is a child, isn't he?

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 22:10 | 2041400 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

thats complimentary, a psychotic bank clerk  without 2  nickels that ever met

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:21 | 2040636 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I've heard it costs 30% more to dig paper silver out of the ground...

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:31 | 2040666 akak
akak's picture

But it's still only $5 regardless.

The Mathematics of Methman:

$5 + 30% = $5

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:39 | 2040697 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The Mathematics of francis_sawyer:

$5 [of worthless fiat = 0] + 30% = $0

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 18:12 | 2040806 dugorama
dugorama's picture

extraction costs are unrelated to balancing supply and demand (which is the role of the price mechanism in a (quasi) free marketplace.  The Saudis (or their errand boy American oilmen) can bring crude to the pier for less than $1/bbl FOB.  That has almost no relationship with the daily fluctuations in the price. 

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 20:14 | 2041152 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Post a link.  Because I think you are full of **it.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 21:40 | 2041334 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

What's that shit at the end of your post?

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 20:55 | 2041248 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

No - it costs 30 percent more to scrape the paper silver out of the butt crack it has been rammed up previously, clean it off, and re-insert it up your own asshole. Manually. At a FUCKING PREMIUM ! Brilliant investment, fun seekers.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:32 | 2040675 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

People are missing the point. There is going to be a decoupling of paper from physical silver. This is how it starts. I fail to understand why people think this is so odd. Be thankful dealers are willing to sell it at 30% below its actual worth. They haven't caught on. They will.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 20:35 | 2041209 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture

 

 

Be thankful dealers are willing to sell it at 30% below its actual worth. They haven't caught on. They will.....

Wait a minute...

You actually think the NAV premium of PSLV is the REAL price of spot silver, and only the shareholders of PSLV understand the true value of silver?

Sorry to be blunt, but this is EXACTLY why the silver community is INFAMOUS for being the most ignorant, dis/misinformed segment of investors anywhere. It's amazing.  I truly wish I was a coin dealer just to experience what it's like to have an ENTIRE customer base of paranoid, gullible extremely passionate idiots foaming at the mouth with conspiracy and bad information, and more than willing to get totally ripped off.  That must be the most desirable group of consumers for any retailer, anywhere! 

Price doesn't matter!  "If you buy this silver coin for 30% more than it's worth, JP Morgue will be bankrupt before summer!  Here, just watch this cartoon....."  

*LOL*

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 23:09 | 2041490 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Why did you short something 30% under the price people are willing to pay?  That is the real question.  You'll probably get MF Globaled with forced by in around 120 because your broker was stupid enough to lend you the money to do it.  It goes both ways.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:33 | 2040679 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

I almost agreed with you for a second, amazing..

If you want to get a feel for freely traded physical precious metal prices just watch eBay..

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 18:39 | 2040885 XitSam
XitSam's picture

I quit dealing on ebay over 10 years ago after almost getting ripped off for some gold. Just looked again, ridiculous prices for ASEs with no bids. LCS and APMEX may not be cheapest but way better than that.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 18:48 | 2040920 mortiis
mortiis's picture

I bought most of my physical from ebay in '08 and early '09.  It was usually near spot back then and MSFT was also paying 8% CASH back (bing.com promotion) and ebay 2%.  It was a fantastic deal!  MSFT stopped their program in July of '10? and ebay no longer gives 2% on bullion (since Nov '11).  That and the prices have exploded to way over spot...  twas good while it lasted.

The MSFT deal was awesome because if you purchased enough (which I did) you got the cash IMMEDIATELY and I would turn around and use it to buy more.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 21:51 | 2041371 Angus McHugepenis
Angus McHugepenis's picture

I've been a computer geek long before AlGore invented the intertubes and eBay. I have never, nor will I ever, use that scam called eBay. If you like watching your profits vanish into a pit of eBay fees then by all means go ahead and use their service. I won't even start harping on PayPal. Craigslist is also a piece of shit, but at least it's free. I stopped using Craigshit a couple years ago when it seemed every ad I placed was getting deleted due to their ambiguous TOS rules. Not sure how power tools and other harmless gear made it to their flag list but it did. Fuck, I could have listed baby clothing for sale and it still would have been flagged and deleted. Meanwhile you can scan the list of ads for deviants who will fuck your pet turtle and goldfish for a price, but I can't sell good quality used tools without getting flagged and deleted? WTF?

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 22:19 | 2041410 AgShaman
AgShaman's picture

You seem angry

Might I suggest buying some silver....it's very relaxing

....and it helps you sleep at night knowing there's a bunch a folks workin' their asses off to dig it outta the ground

....while there's a bunch more trying to convince us it only takes $5 bucks to get it above surface and on it's way to market

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0dODJGm3dM&feature=g-vrec&context=G2853373RVAAAAAAAAAg

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:47 | 2040720 Haddock
Haddock's picture

Tyler is comparing one form of paper over another. Non-story.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 17:57 | 2040763 jesusfreakinco
jesusfreakinco's picture

Trav,

 

What is your point?  The fact that PSLV is 30% over spot is indicative of what?  Worship of Sprott?  Check out Apmex - some silver coins like the Pandas are running at significant premiums.  Check it out if you are not convinced.  www.apmex.com 

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 19:29 | 2041018 trav7777
trav7777's picture

My point is thet REAL SILVER IS NOT 30% OVER SPOT?

Was I NOT fucking clear enough when I said "real silver is not 30% over spot"?  Do you need me to fucking say it again before you get the plain language?  Do I need to swear more?  WTF is it going to take? 

PSLV, who cares; it's a fucking ETF that people ARE OVERPAYING FOR.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 19:54 | 2041077 tmosley
tmosley's picture

SO you would say that paper is behaving in an irrational way, perhaps... schizophrenically?

lol

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 21:47 | 2041359 jesusfreakinco
jesusfreakinco's picture

OK Trav - to be fair - ASE's on Apmex are selling for 15% over spot

http://www.apmex.com/Product/59157/default.aspx

Spot 28.78 - 1oz = 32.97

However, you can't deny the PSLV premium (which may equate to safety / physically backed and abiltiy to cover a large purchase and that is trading at 30% premium.  What are buyers of size buying physical for today - we don't know because BOS aren't buying through the Comex any longer because of the MF Global fiasco.  Tyler's comments I think are fair.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 22:00 | 2041387 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

jesus,  whan asshole what looks  back at you in the  mirror  you psychotic  cunt

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 22:25 | 2041421 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

WTF? I'm usually pretty good at translating non-sense posts, but you lost me, brah.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 20:04 | 2041119 DosZap
DosZap's picture

jesusfreakinco

Travs POINT is there is NO 30% over physical spot being sold, unless idiots are buying it, or it's overseas.

As for Specialty Coins like Pandas, leave them out of the debate.We are talking SPOT price and what 1 OUNCE of .999 bulk silver cost's you over that price.

You can buy it all over the NET for as little as $0.79 per ounce,or less, or more............do your DUE diligence.

Or, you can get screwed and pay whatever some shysters are willing to STEAL from you.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 21:41 | 2041342 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

That is both true and not true.

While you might be able to get something like a vial of silver shot at or even below spot, the question really needs to address what kind of silver we're talking about.  Recognised coinage from gov't mints brings an almost automatic premium- while these coins may not any real advantage in terms of actual purity or appearance, they do have the tangible advantage of being consistant and easily identified.

It depends on your strategy, but I only buy US coinage for general stacking purposes.  That includes both 90% silver and ASEs- though I did buy some Philharmonics recently just because I liked the look of them.

What I've been seeing is that Peace and Morgan dollars are holding their value the best when the price drops, but ASEs are still showing a high premium- between 10% and 30%.  Smaller 90% coins such as dimes and quarters are following spot more closely- I bought a roll of mercs a couple of days ago for an 8% premium, and so are generic rounds and bars.

The problem with generics is resale.  I look at it this way- even though I am a buyer of silver, if you bring me something along the lines of (for example) a 1 oz. coin with a star on it that says "Don't mess with Texas" and .999 fine silver stamped on it, I'm not going to buy it from you at spot, and I may not buy it at all.  Because quite simply, I have no idea if it's silver or not.  I might give you 10% of spot for it, just on a lark, but your generic round or bar is useless to me.The point here is that we may be comparing apples to oranges.  

While you may fancy generic rounds and/or bars because you can get them for a low premium, there's no situation in which those generic lumps of silver will sell for as much as an ASE or a Morgan dollar.  You might buy them cheap, but you'll sell them cheap, too.  Unless you've got an industrial application lined up, I'd stay away from them, low premiums or not.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 21:59 | 2041386 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Prometheus418

  You might buy them cheap, but you'll sell them cheap, too.  Unless you've got an industrial application lined up, I'd stay away from them, low premiums or not

Buy the recognized Rounds, and your cool.

Also there are tests to determine real silver.

Easy, and fast, and cheap.Look around the net, nearly EVERY dealer I have seen sells the Buffalo rounds. Matter of fact I haven't seen one who did not.

TO each his own, I trust my Dealers to only sell REAL Generic silver .999(think they buy off a wagon?).

When I go to sell them to other dealers, I never have a hassle.With ANY pure ,marked bullion round.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 01:14 | 2041667 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

It's a matter of strategy.  I buy from dealers, but don't sell back to them.  Selling to a dealer is a good way to take a hit in the wallet- if you can find a private buyer or trade for a good or service directly, it's a much better deal for you.  In that case, my preference is for coins with US mint markings- it's an easier sell to someone who is somewhat knowledgable about silver, but is not savvy enough to be able to recognize generic rounds on sight.

I know there are tests, but again- you run into a situation where someone who does not know how to perform them is still just taking your word for it.  The idea is to have the biggest possible potential resale market- or at least, that's how I play it.  For all the bitching about sheeple, it's still the case that the majority of people fall into that category, and will trust the markings from the US Mint, where they would balk at a shiny coin from a place they have not heard of.  Everyone has an uncle or grandpa who had some old mercs and walking liberties laid away somewhere, and there's not only a recognition, but also a nostalgia premium built into them- especially in bad times.

If you watch it, you'll see that pre-'64 silver dollars have the "stickiest" prices.  Most people recognize them, and many equate them with an oz, even though they are closer to 3/4oz.  In fact, most people I meet tend to round silver content to even numbers, assuming that 90% starts at an oz./dollar, and then divide accordingly- it skews what they think it is worth in relation to spot price.  The ironic thing is that the price tends to stay there even if you point out the weight difference- I think of it as the honesty bonus.  Admitting that what you have is worth less than they think goes a hell of a long way towards building trust.

I did think about the buffalo rounds, but they just don't have the recognition value in the general public- if and when that changes, I'll pick some up.  If they don't start minting more Eagles at a brisk pace, that may come sooner rather than later.

This isn't entirely speculation- while I've only been buying precious metals for a couple of years, I have held other metals as low-grade investments in the past, and I found that it was really hard to sell metals like copper when the market started to turn.  Taught me to think about the counterparty before buying or storing anything, and I discovered that the counterparty always likes to have proof of some kind that your materials are what you claim they are.  Generic copper slugs and chips (leftovers from machining) don't give a crap about the spot price of copper, it's all about whether or not the scrap purchaser believes that they are what you say they are, and takes the purity on faith.  Mint marks take that out of the equation.  It's the same with aluminum- aircraft grade 6061 gets half the scrap price of cans, because scrappers recognize cans at a glance, while chips could be any number of things.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 22:03 | 2041390 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

are you  idiots  retarded? Go make some money,  and then  try to buy silver in size, Thats SIZE,  not your size fuckspittle

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 18:39 | 2040876 sullymandias
sullymandias's picture

trav7777:

Real silver is not 30% over spot.

If you want one ounce pieces it is..

http://goldprice.org/ebay-gold-prices/

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 19:32 | 2041024 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Who gives a FLYING FUCK what a bunch of MORONS on EBAY are charging!??!?!

If you buy from them, YOU ALSO are a moron!  I can give you half a dozen retail sites that will sell to you for less.

Tell you idiots what, I will put up an auction on ebay where I set my reserve price at fucking TRIPLE the price of silver and you can use ME as a data point to make your bullshit claims of "decoupling!!!!!!11"  I mean, LOOK, silver is "selling" for THREE TIMES SPOT!!!!!!1

People are still selling platinum on ebay as if it is worth more than gold, selling Platypus coins as if they are RARE and shit and trying to charge fucking 2 grand for them.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 20:05 | 2041125 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

 

 

Our Trav is an obvious Shill

A hot-head who should take a pill

Japan: He was wrong

PMs: Same old song

Click green to give Trav a big thrill!!!

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 20:17 | 2041156 akak
akak's picture

And now a travku --

 

Hate, lies run amock
dumpster-diving of the mind:
Trav on ZeroHedge.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 21:46 | 2041187 fuu
fuu's picture

I feel obligated. 

Trav's Theme

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 22:27 | 2041427 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Wow! Trav should be flattered by that.

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