PIMCO Releases 2012 Economic Forecasts; Presenting The Wall Street 2011 Market Forecast Track Record

Tyler Durden's picture

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
BandGap's picture

Well, devout Mayans everywhere are applauding.

Almost Solvent's picture

Thanks, captures that sinking feeling ...

AldousHuxley's picture

Here is what I have to say about PIMCO...

  • 2001, Paul McCulley, an economist at Pimco, the giant bond fund, predicted that the Federal Reserve would simply replace one bubble with another. "There is room," he wrote, "for the Fed to create a bubble in housing prices, if necessary, to sustain American hedonism. And I think the Fed has the will to do so, even though political correctness would demand that Mr. Greenspan deny any such thing. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/27/opinion/27krugman.html

  • 2007, hired Greenspan 

http://articles.latimes.com/2007/may/17/business/fi-pimco17

  • 2009, hired Kashkari, former TARP chief

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/01/business/economy/01kashkari.html

  • co-founder Bill Gross was professional blackjack player in Vegas
  • 2007 Pimco's Total Return fund top holdings are 40% in GSE mortages...Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac
  • Bill Gross was a fan of government bailout for Fannie Freddie creditors

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/838d3cb4-7e96-11dd-b1af-000077b07658.html#axzz...

  • most of Pimco's funds under management comes from public pensions....which comes from you taxes
  • pimco is owned by German insurer Allianz
Oh regional Indian's picture

*clap* But it's not so much about the Mayan's as it is about Maya. Illusion., The end of illusion/delusion.

Talking their book or otherwise, even these awful NUMBers sound really optimistic for next year. India's ISM number fell by almost 50% and a good 30-40% below expectation MOM last month.

And the reason the Rupee is being allowed to sink is that software exporters are hurting as business from US/Euro/Banking in general slow down. They have to keep inflated rupee earnings to justify ANY projections for India's growth. Software salaries are driving the BOOM. BOOM it is and BUST it will.

So yep, all going down hard, the can is now heeeavvvyyyy. 

ori

/re-capitulation-collaboration/

BandGap's picture

The inflation numbers, in particular, appear to be bullshit.

PulauHantu29's picture

7% to 12% inflation by Williams....

Sounds about right from a consumer prespective. My oil (USO) has been there avergaing about that rise over the last few years.

 

ThrivingAdmistCollapse's picture

The global economy might well tank next year.  All the emerging market stock exchanges are tanking on the uncertainly.  We could definitely see an economic collapse in the next 6 months.

AbelCatalyst's picture

I think they're being conservative on their predictions.  My guess is if you bumped into these guys at a holiday party and they were a little lubricated and they shared what is truly in hteir hearts they see a much darker 2012 than they share publicly.  

jcaz's picture

7% isn't GDP-net positive for China- whoops.....

Irish66's picture

I'm going with 1150 for 2012

Pladizow's picture

How about S&P 12000 in 2012?

Hyperinflation Bitchez!

Printfaster's picture

What I like is that the oft maligned (here) Laszlo and his ruler:  Winning.

HedgeAccordingly's picture

Santa santa. Bring me some volume and some silicone. http://hedge.ly/sJYWiG

GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Comrade Obama will save us!

nobusiness's picture

They still have 8 days and now $650 Billion to ramp the market.

ucsbcanuck's picture

Not going to make predictions. Sick of making preds then getting hammered.

The Limerick King's picture

 

 

My 2012 predictions

Our freedom will meet new restrictions

Lies will be higher

Crap finds a buyer

And Kleptos will have no convictions

Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

So basically I see the last 3 years have been the same prediction & you just decided to take the day off...

Good for you! Everyone needs a day off...

Hedgetard55's picture

This term "lender of last resort". Is it the same as "money printer"? Please help.

fonzanoon's picture

So according to the biggest bond shop in the world 2012 will be very similar to 2011. Get used to bullshit statistics and more idiots telling you that we are slowly crawling out of this. Get used to banks fudging their earnings and the market celebrating it. Get used to Robo telling you about retail stocks performance and how during the rough spots people will cradle and soothe themselves in the arms of long term US treasuries.

Yup. Happy new year.

in-Credible Banker's picture

I am still unclear on why the doom and gloom among you all.  Everything is BEAUTIFUL baby! 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/economy-ends-tough-2011-surprising-192611459.html

 

I mean - this truly is journalism at its very finest......right from AP!!!! 

Pladizow's picture

Managed Perception!

There were once 80+ independent US news sources, now there are 6.

All six rely upon AP & Reuters.

AP owned by Reuters, Reuters owned by Rothschilds.

 

Oh regional Indian's picture

That's crazy Pladizow. Single source of global news. Frightening when I think of MSM Viewersheep.

Viwersheep. Hah!

ori

Thorny Xi's picture

AP is not owned by Reuters ... good grief!  " The AP is a cooperative owned by its contributing newspapers, radio and television stations in the United States, which both contribute stories to the AP and use material written by its staff journalists. Many newspapers and broadcasters outside the United States are AP subscribers, paying a fee to use AP material without being contributing members of the cooperative."

Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

cooperative of....?

newspapers owned by......?

radio owned by.....?

TV infiltrated with.......?

United States subservient to......?

Hey... When it bleeds all the way down to a dipshit like 'Matthew Berry' being a fantasy football 'guru' for ESPN, owned by Disney, you know the  tentacles are numerous...

Pladizow's picture

To: Thorny Xi

Who owns Wikipedia where you cut and paste your info from?

And if what I say is wrong and what you say is right, then there are still only 2 sources.

 

MeBizarro's picture

Single largest shareholder of Reuters is the Thompson family in Canada since Thompson merged with Reuters.  Not the Rothchilds.   

SilverDOG's picture

1970 there were 95 "independent" news sources.

Now there are the magic (7) seven.

Everything is fine, read along now. Read along.

 

Unplug your TV and open your mind. TV is POISON.

Snakeeyes's picture

Bernake's plea for consumer spending is telling. Look at the charts of househhold debt and savings. To keep growth humming, he needs to enslave consumers to debt. Von Hayek was right, of course.

Bernanke’s Plea to Consume (Not Save) and the Conflicting Economic News: The Good, The Not-So-Good and The Expected (Housing)

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2011/12/22/bernankes-plea-to-con...

Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

Why do you think they wanted Obama as President?

It succeeded in getting a whole demographic of people hooked on credit so they'd be hoodwinked into 'keeping up with the Obamas'... & therefore spend beyond their means...

DaveyJones's picture

the forecast of inflation

is suffering deflation

while the forecast of growth

is not sworn under oath

lizzy36's picture

Odd the Yosef would be high on the street.

Alas, she has has been awesome at monetizing (to the present day) being right from 1996-2000. 

Jlmadyson's picture

Ship is going down just a matter of time. 0-1% wow. At least these are some honest forecasts.

WonderDawg's picture

I'm not sure I'd call it honest. Wildly optimistic is more like it. Or downright bullshit. Recession/depression becomes undeniable in 2012.

Sudden Debt's picture

As long as europe is printing, the us will print and azia will print so I think 2012 will look a lot like 2011.

FoieGras's picture

And of course Pimco is dead right. Very low inflation. Hyperinflation NOWHERE to be seen in the G10. The bears who were screaming fire over inflation since 2007 were dead wrong for 5 years and counting now.

Tsar Pointless's picture

Hmm. Really?

So I'm just imagining things when I see the prices of goods in grocery stores?

And at the gasoline pump.

And with my utility (especially water) bills?

A jar of Miracle Whip nearly $5.50. A can of vegetables almost a dollar now. Used to be, when I was a young-un and working at grocery stores, you could get FOUR cans for a dollar when they went on sale.

This is not the inflation you were looking for, perhaps?

Killtruck's picture

Let's also not forget that hyperinflation, by its very definition, sneaks up on you and kicks the shit out of you with the speed of an angry gorilla-sized exponential function. Sure, it starts small, 1% here, 2.3% there (look around) regardless of cuts in interest rates...a year and a half later you're stuffed.

Maybe this joker forgot the </sarc> tag?

DaveyJones's picture

and don't forget...the jars are getting smaller

Kali's picture

4 cans for a buck?  Not even 3 years ago, especially during harvest season, you could get 10cans/dollar.  And what is up with water bills?  Everyone I talk to all over the country has seen their water bills skyrocket.  I know in my neck of the woods it was because of huge projects the EPA required for wastewater/stormwater management and DHS requirements for security and new lower levels of certain contaminants required for drinking water.  I started going back to baking my own bread, can't believe the outrageous prices for "good" bread, not the ghetto sawdust stuff they sell for 99 cent/loaf.  If you have not noticed inflation, then you aren't doing the shopping in your family.

MeBizarro's picture

It isn't the retail prices of items that have increased that much but the cost per serving size & some of the substitution of cheaper products in the processed items you buy. 

Food prices in the US haven't increased nearly as much either as they have in other countries thanks to the US exporting inflation though the dollar.  Global food riots in '08 that caused massive global unrest & change and they were a key cause in the Arab uprising last spring especially in Egypt.

MeBizarro's picture

Miracle Whip is $5.50?  Vegetables are a dollar a can? BS even if live in CA or NY.  Miracle Whip is half that much and less if you coupon & buy on sale.  Vegetables can be had for 3/$1.00 if you wait for a sale and stock up. 

Dr. Engali's picture

Have you been to the grocery at all? How about a doctors visit? Paid a heat bill? Water bill..........