Pimco's 4 "Iran Invasion" Oil Price Scenarios: From $140 To "Doomsday"

Tyler Durden's picture

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RobotTrader's picture

Los Angeles gas prices continue to crash to new 9 mo. lows.$/G

No wonder WMT, HD, LOW are outperforming.

Retail spending going wild.

CPL's picture

Greg...keep working on the site.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Robo doesn't know what a spread means.

Margin compression, bitchez.  The American consumer can't afford the high price, but supply/demand+"easy" monetary policy is dictating a higher price/barrel.

You want to see a trade unwind?  Watch when the price at the pump catches back up to it p/b.  It will happen so fast people won't won't see it coming.  Most likely, the pump price will jump the week of the 19th, and also likely, the p/b will jump then too.

Basically $5 gas is right around the corner and America is not prepared for it.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

$5 gas = fatal heart attack for real economy and a change in Presidents.  $5 gas will happen over Barry's dead body.  Should be interesting.

i-dog's picture


"$5 gas will happen over Barry's dead body"

So, there is a bright side to it!

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Barry doesn't want another term.  He wants to take naps, golf, and watch ESPN without having to ever put on a suit.

redpill's picture

That certainly hasn't stopped him up until this point.

DosZap's picture

Mr Lennon Hendrix

Great think your dead wrong,(IMHO) but I prefer your take.

HE is never going to give up that office.He's our last duly elected, and our first Dictkaker.

HungrySeagull's picture

Nah. Make it 14 or so when Walmart finally halts the trucks.

SheepleLOVEcheddarbaybiscuits's picture

right,this guy will wait till he gets a second term, THEN he will wage war cause he knows he cant get another term. All bets are off if this commie gets another term. It will bring Amerika to its knees.

constitutionalist's picture

oh good, we're not on our knees yet? i could have sworn we were all laying on the floor with our hands behind our backs already..

DanDaley's picture

Like the song says, You ain't seen nothin' yet!

redpill's picture

The Iran war drumming is becoming absurd.  I hope all the lefties are paying attention.  "The one they've been waiting for" in the White House is playing the exact same game of militarism that we saw less than a decade ago with Iraq.  There's plenty of parties involved that would like a good war to distract from all this.  The Iranian government would be fine with it, so they lose a couple million people, but the ones that survive will be much more loyal to them with such a formidable external enemy present.  And Saudi Arabia's leadership wouldn't mind, the Wahhabis never mind seeing a few impure Shiites get some bombs dropped on their head, and plus they get to sell their oil at elevated prices and get even richer. Israel obviously would be a cheerleader as well.  Domestically the war would have smirking support from the Krazed Keynesian Krugman left, who see a vast military conflict as a life preserver for their failed economic religion, not to mention President Barack "Kinetic Military Action" Obama who would suddenly pretend to be a reluctant leader of the US War Machine as he tries to unify support ahead of the election whilst ordering countless more Tomahawks and bombs from the giddy "defense" industry.  And he'd probably get a fair amount of support from sheeple Americans who don't like Ahmadinejad or figure we might as well continue our "War on Terrah" in the next "towel head country"

And who would be against it?  Individual Americans who can't do much about it except vote, only to realize it will be far too late.  And if the GOP nominee winds up to be someone like Gingrich, you can expect more healthy doses of militarism to come even if Obama loses next year.

This is the ugly world of death we live in.


High Plains Drifter's picture



and now a word about internal iranian politics and culture.....


it is amazing , how similar, really similar islam is to talmudic judaism, in so many ways...........hmmmm..

Iwanttoknow's picture

Drifter,Sure Islam has it's flaws.But it is very,very different from Talmudic judaism.Read David Duke.

kridkrid's picture

It's all so remarkable.  We can elect the same exact leader... same actions... same policies, foreign and domestic, window dressing aside, yet almost everyone who identifies with one party vs. the other is blinded to the reality.  Even if they don't buy the lie 100%, the "lesser of two evils" lie is just a punch card away.  Amazing the control.

Ying-Yang's picture

Ra ra siss boom bah Go Newt... no really go Newt, yeah we really want you to go home or help Robo out at Tiffany's.

"Dr Paul to save us All"

LawsofPhysics's picture

Precisely why you will never see a popular vote allowed.  If voting actually resulted in change, it would be illegal.

Things that go bump's picture

Really, how can I take someone named for kind of salamander seriously? Just look at the face he is wearing! Besides that, he has already proven he is not to be trusted.  

SteveNYC's picture

I have this conversation with morons of both stripes all of the time. Sometimes, it is like living in a twilight zone as the depth of the brainwashing on both sides is inherently deep. Every time the "war" comes up I counter with one simple line: if you are so big into bombing said "towel heads", then you should have no qualms either committing yourself or your son/daughter to the war machine that is going to "liberate" or "protect" and so on.

It always ends the same way "my kid is in college" or "I'm too old" or "we can just bomb them, no need to put feet on the ground". If you choose to live by the sword, you will surely perish by it. Individuals, groups, countries. No exceptions.

redpill's picture

Regardless of how people feel about Ron Paul, the bottom line is that he's the only real peace candidate in this election who wants to stop this suicidal war machine that is bankrupting the country and making us hated across the world.

Flakmeister's picture

This isn't left-right bullshit...

This is Peak Oil playing out and the boys at the table can't admit what the game is about... We therefore get all kinds of misdirection, alterior motives.... What was that song?

"There's battle lines bein' drawn..."


kridkrid's picture

the left-right bullshit is what provides the cover for what really happens.  It's the charade that keeps people in the dark. 

Ratscam's picture

great article on rt.com. George Orwell,s guide to the news


El Viejo's picture

Wrong !!!

This is Sunni Shiite religious battle lines being drawn. And as usual the Russians are on the wrong side.



IQ 101's picture

Mr Pill, please test drive my conspiracy theory,

Barry was installed by the neo cons in both parties, house of Rothschild, who works for the Jesuits, who work for the Pope , who works for the Queen, who works for the Aliens, (I'm still working on it).

The Venezuela / Iran alliance is threatend by an altercation near the Columbian border that draws the attension of the USA but Hugo Chavez succumbs to cancer and a brief revolution creates a pro US gov in Venezuela, (Who require US refineries to process their oil, anyhoo.)

And Venezuela comes with a fine gold dowry, too.

With Canadian, Mexican and Venezuelan oil, on top of it's own, Muddle East supplies become less threatening or relevant to the Western alliance ?

Just throwing around ideas based on the writing on the wall, hope you don't mind, but it is all that can be done at this point.

SilverBaron's picture

Not aliens.  Lucifer.

He also goes by the names: Allah, Krishna, Buddah, Baal, Baal-hadad, Osiris, etc.

It matters not if you don't believe in him because they do, and they are in controll.

redpill's picture

You don't need any conspiracies for this one.  Barry was perfect play-doh for the big money.  He comes from Chicago, so they knew he can be bought.  He's not really interested in policy, but rather just being "the man" who gets to strut around, read his teleprompter, and smile.  This was all supposed to go smoothly, he firmly put all his responsibility in the hands of people that were supposed to be the best at everything, and then he was told he was free to go golf and shoot hoops and it would all get handled.  He never really had a clue about the economy, policy, or anything else.  Which is why he was such a perfect fit.  The sheeple loved him in 2008, so it was an ideal situation.  From his perspective this was going to be a fantastic vacation, he doesn't have to really do anything because he's abdicated all actual policy decisions to others, and legislatively he's been in absentia, even when the Dems had the House.  He figures legislation isn't his problem, and now Congress is deadlocked on everything so there's no legislation to worry about, Hillary tells him who to bomb, the Fed controls fiscal and monetary policy, and the rest is just typical handout BS, more unemployment benefits, payroll tax cuts, easy giveaways.  He was supposed to be FDR helping us through the Bush-recession.  Instead it has gone catastrophically wrong, which is why he looks so confused these days.

ActionFive's picture

Gas price is odd- must want cash in consumer hand for Christmas sales.

Ying-Yang's picture

RoboTease.... we'll check back with you in a few weeks on retail stocks

Oh regional Indian's picture

Robot trader going Wilder. Jean Wilder?

Meanwhile the GOD's of war, Gold, Oil and Dollar are all shaping up for a big swoon.

Doomsday is not an event, it's a culmination, a climax.


/the-plan/ Updated

Spastica Rex's picture

Young Frankenstein?

edit: If I had a blog, I would troll my own site to generate discussion.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Ahaha! Very nice Spastica Rex. Very nice! :-)

Mutating strain.


Edit: To each his own, eh? And perhaps you should write your own blog. You clearly are a wit.

Spastica Rex's picture

The blog comment was not directed at you.

I read your stuff with great interest. Really enjoy your music. I do feel somewhat trapped in a Western brain.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Oh cool! Good to know! :-) The admiration is mutual.

I heard a Dobbs Man talk at Burning Man in 2004. As you can imagine, it was quite a trip.


CPL's picture

DOGs of War sounds better.

SheepDog-One's picture

What do you care about gas prices Robotarder did your bus pass expire?

Max Hunter's picture

There could be numorous "unintended" consequences not listed.. For instance, if Iran is attacked, the Muslim world could say -enough is enough- and do everything they can to cripple the oil production in the entire region (through sabotage).  The only way the ME countries could defend themselves from the obvious western take over of their resources is to put every effort they have into crippling the war machine i.e. reducing petro exports anywhere and everywhere possible..  The only unknown is; when will the region collectively understand the dire situation they are in?

i-dog's picture

The "Muslim world" is divided into Sunnis and Shia ... and they hate each other. Only Iran has a Shia majority; Syria has a Shia minority (which TPTB wishes to eliminate). The rest of the oil states are Sunni and will simply watch from the sidelines ... or even assist NATO.

Calmyourself's picture

Absolutely, the Saudis have given permission for Israeli jets to overfly the kingdom on the way..

earleflorida's picture

yep,... and afghanistan's, kandahar province [air force base] afb to fly the sorties, and drones from jalalabad,afghanistan afb,... not to forget [leave-out] mentioning the shamsi afb [w.pakistan] in baluchistan

good ole israel,... i wonder if they'll do a two-fer and wipe out the 'gaza death camps' while their at it

what has iran done???

ps. they are a better known enemy than those scumbag "ARAB'S"!!!


constitutionalist's picture

im pretty sure they used to be persians as well. I guess they didn't do what they were told. I guess big gas companies/government can't push around the people who have gas already. i hope someday people will realize that NOT ONE MAN OR GROUP WILL RULE THIS WORLD. Its proven fact throughout history. we all need to look deeply into what the word "freedom" really means, because I dont think it means bullying the world for profit and bragging rights.

Iwanttoknow's picture

True.A lot of it has been fanned by the good old english i.e."divide and rule' and installing NWO puppets throuhout the sunni belt.

earleflorida's picture

the iraqi's are shiites (shiites are too  various religious belief as todays  lutheran's, and sunni's quite similar  catholic's[?])


ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shia_Islam

SystemsGuy's picture

Iraq was formed by England from the remains of the Ottoman empire in the 1930s, and is actually made up of three ethnic groups - Shia in the south, Sunni's in the central area around Baghdad, and Kurds to the north along the Turkish border. The division was artificial - the Kurdish clans were deliberately split between Turkey and Iraq in order to reduce their influence in either country.

Most of the Iraqi insurgency was led by Shiites with arms and financial support from Iran (that would LOVE to annex the south of Iraq, since not only is it ethnically similar, but happens to contain much of the oil in the country). The current Iraqi parliament exists primarily because of US support - and is remarkably fractious and unstable. Should Iran get attacked, it is very likely that the Shia minority in Iraq would use it as an excuse to escalate their own attacks in order to retake Baghdad.

Iraq is primarily desert. Iran is desert in parts, but for the most part it's terrain more closely resembles Afghanistan and Pakistan - mountainous, with comparatively few passes for running convoys into. It's an ideal country for guerilla warfare. Unlike the Saudis, the Iranians for the most part could very easily live without oil revenue for months or even years at a time. This makes committing to a ground war in Iran a fool's errand, and you could not defeat Iran from the air.

The same issue with regard to Shiite minorities also holds true in Saudi Arabia. The House of Saud are Sunni. Osama Bin Laden (a Saudi prince) was virulently anti-Shiite, regarding them in nearly as low a regard as he had for the West. However, a near majority of the (largely oppressed) population in Saudi Arabia are Shiites, though there is some ambivalence because the Iranians are Persians rather than Arabs. However, regardless if Iran was attacked, those same SA Shiites may very well take it as an opportunity to topple the House of Saud.

That's one of the reasons why any reasonable analyst is going to get twitchy when war with Iran is in the offing - there are simply too many unintended consequences that emerge out of it. From the West's standpoint, Iran is toppled, a friendly dictator rounds up the Iranian cleric and has them shot, and Iran's oil supplies go towards the West - very best case scenario, and overall a fairly unlikely one. From China's standpoint, an attack on Iran deprives them of one of their most regular suppliers of oil, and they will do anything and everything to retaliate - including finally making a stab at retaking Taiwan or prodding the North Koreans to attack Seoul. The Chinese consider Israel to be the US's proxy in the region, and an attack by Israel will be seen as an attack by the US (with a fair amount of justification). Russia sees Iran as the last major southern buffer to the US being in a position to attack it, and by some indications may in fact be indirectly funding the Pakistani Taliban (most ironically).

No - this isn't going to end well.


i-dog's picture

Thanks for setting out that excellent analysis. I totally agree.

Calmyourself's picture

Lets say the muslims do that, cripple oil production, they will use what to import the food they MUST have?