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Please Highlight The Housing Recovery On The Following Chart
...of New One Family Homes for Sale (source) which at 150,000 is the lowest print... Ever. And no, "it can only go up from 300,000, 250,000, 200,000, 150,000... 0" does not work with us.
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Really? Who would have thought one couldn't afford a new house on one of minimum wage service sector jobs being "created" these days. Of course if it was 2005, all you would have needed was a signature and a paystub from McDonalds and you could have bought 10 McMansions.
and with property taxes rising, and every fee under the sun rising, water ,sewer, electricity, you name it, all going up up up. WHy wouldnt a young couple want to strap themselves to the runaway debt wagon?
but, but, didn't obama say he was cutting taxes?
Where the hell did all of those strawberry pickers go? It is a shame they can't get loans. Angelo Mozillo must be rolling over in his grave right now.
Okay, maybe that is wishful thinking.
They are in college on massive student loans. Don't ya know - everyone must have a college education now... and a house.... and cool car with bitching wheels... and an iPhone for every member of the family.
ha ha if fucking SHLD can go from 28 to 83 on a 25 dollar lose....housing stocks can go much higher on a print of ZERO homes SOLD.....fucking nuts
wheres the chart for new single family homes being built from cardboard boxes and shipping pallets?
'Linked in' is bugging the shit out of me...obviously a shill for the Obama re-election campaign, for the last 4 weeks they have announced in their weekly email updates that the housing crisis will end this year as banks are loosening credit...right! When I see shit like that I wanna take my info down and go somewhere else...I love a business networking site that doesn't know shit about the business they're talking about.
We've fucked up the housing mess to the point where the cost to fix is is now so much more than we can afford...if we would have just recognized it was a $4 trillion fix 3 years ago and had the cojones to do it right, we might not be in the position we're in...but, after failed interventions, massive deficits and record debt, we now can't afford to 'fix' it anymore. Time to let it run it's course...stop supporting the housing markets and the banks that caused the mess. Maybe if the government got out of the way, the banks and their investors would get real about taking some haircuts to solve the problem.
The funniest part is how much fools think that endless credit creation equals Capitalism. All you can do is shake your head, say a prayer, cry a few tears and drink heavily.
Then they find out it is cannibalism. Close. Spelled sort of the same. Understandable mistake. LOL.
RINO
Recovery in name only...
LOL ! and the countries greatest RINO , just said that NJ is making a comeback !
what they skip over is the fact, if a comeback is needed, than you have to admit we are currently LOSING.
and as long as we keep hearing about 'signs of a recovery' - there ain't one.
'your father slept very well last night and we are hoping he well be doing better tomorrow'.
thanks nurse big b..b's - and by the way, ignoring the triple bypass etc. - green shoots? doing the tango by tuesday?
yup. right now i'm looking at empty lots in trenton and camden and simple housing on toxic waste lands and i've got HUGE backing from hedge funds.
this stuff is going to turn around like nobody's biz. (sarcasm). i even have a few 'snooki slept here' places going at real premiums for 'long term buyers'.
Selling back seats of cars?
that chart will from now on be called the BRUSCA CURVE
HOUSING IN THE US WILL NEVER RECOVER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-5 YEARS....EVEN WITH THE FAKED DATA REPORTS FROM THE NAH. GOLDMAN CAN ALSO CIRCULATE A NICE REPORT TO ITS M-CLIENTS AND ASK THEM TO INVEST OF COURSE ..NO STRINGS ATTACHED
13-15 years
there fixed it for you
Never.
Fixed it for you.
The recovery was from about Dec '82 through about March '85.
just what is the american dream anymore? a job that may last 5 years? full dental benefits? a house which may well be a debt anvil? a marriage that is likely to fail? a college education that will bury you in debt?...... oh I know what the american dream is.. an Ipad, a sixpack and an angry bird app. I almost forgot.
God Im glad Im old and didnt have to grow up in this society. Poor kids havent a clue as to how it is suppose to be.
I'm with you on that "glad I'm old" sentiment. My American dream includes returning to the time when boys walked around dressed like Hopalong Cassidy, two Colts on their hips, and didn't worry about a SWAT team showing up. It includes being able to fiddle with one's car without a) a degree in electrical engineering with a minor in computer science and b) worrying if you were violating the law and subject to a fine from the EPA or some similar agency. In other words, my dream includes a return to Constitutional limited government. Oh, and silver dollars in circulation.
Glad your old and gobbled up all the wealth while you could.
no more dealing with you howard. gobbled up all the wealth, and here you are claiming it's a good time to
buy housing? why would you do that, other than to gobble. turkeys gobble. or are you ready to buy in order
to be a good guy and help the neighborhoods?
Market clearing. The bottom is here!
Land banks
B of A rental program
Price of real estate in gold
Strengthening Canadian currency
Boomers buying 2 homes
Ben working to lower mortgage rates
Shrinking value of the dollar
Equity market disgust and money must go somehwer
Rents exceeding 30 year mortgage
Cash buyers stepping up
Tremendous number of homes owned outright (40% or so)
Freddie and Fannie with unlimited funds to offer financing to marginal credit risks
One of the only assets that has income power and inflation hedge
the list goes on
Looking very bright for the real estate market.
Definitely a real estate agent.
"suprising housing data" - paid cnbc liar
That chart looks like Barney Frank in profile...bearish.
Purchasing a new single-family home = purchasing any new (eg GM Volt?) automobile:
Immediate depreciation and debt enslavement!
What are you talking about? Debt enslavement? Do you read the news? The people in debt are the ones that are enslaving everyone else.
You will get a mortgage reduction IF you are underwater.
You can refinance IF you are underwater.
You get bailed out if you are underwater.
How is that enslavement?
Here are your answers;
1.Because the mortgage reduction will have paperwork where the actual homeowner will have to sign their rights to litigation away.
2. the refinance will have paperwork where the actual homeowner will have to sign their rights to litigation away (no lawyers are ever allowed to participate),
3. No bailout is required because you aren't underwater on a loan that doesn't legally exist.
Do I need to answer your last question or are you a shill?
No entiende.
Not a shill just understand the philosophy of this country. The people who make the mistakes are the majority. The majority rules. The majority votes in people that create benefits for themselves. Responsibility is out of fashion.
Using the word enslavement with the word debt is a joke and counter to any facts. No one has been enslaved. they either stay in the house for free or walk away and rent somewhere. How is that enslavement? Why I am even responding to such nonsense is what I'm asking myself rght now.
didn't you learn the factual data means nothing now a days. you simple need to follow the NAR/GOV advices "Close your eyes, throw all commonsense out of your head Click your heals" and repet after me.... "Theirs now better time to buy"
Hmmm.... NAR says there's a housing recovery - are you sure you have the chart the right way up?
It is called market clearing. It is how bottoms are reached.
Do you think a glut is what forms a bottom?
Man the lack of thinking regarding real estate here is astounding.
It is called market clearing.
However, demographics in the US, coupled with the "soft landing " in living standards for the bottom 80% of Yanks, will mean a "new normal" in housing.
Student loan overhang + wage deflation/stagnation means household formation is going to be much slower in the future than in the past. Plus baby boomers, are going to want smaller and smaller homes. The houses of the future are going to be smaller, and closer to urban centers than the were in the past.
The perios between 2000-2006 was a FALSE signal. Mean reversion is a bitch.
There are two times the dollars that existed in 2000. That can be levered up 8+x
Boomers had lots of babies. Biggest set of boomers are 15 plus years from downsizing mode and lots are in own 2 homes mode or moving there. Immigration is a reality (Canada and Mexico). Populations in countries that inflate like the US go up very fast (see China)
Housing prices in nominal terms did quite well during stagnating wages
http://www.jparsons.net/housingbubble/
They also acted as a store of value in real terms during high inflation. Taxes are going up and people are looking for tax shelters, depreciation and interest right offs are valued. Income potential from rentals (real or not) is valued.
Where else are people going to put those devaluing dollars? Some will put it in gold but lots of people wont and other will want diversification. There are very few places to store value, real estate historically has been one of the best places to do it.
For every negative you bring I can bring a positive.
You've got no sense of scale.
Take a look at the demographics of annual incomes in the USA. You may move in circles in which a successful couple is grossing over $100K annually, but that's such a small percentage of the US population that it completely skews your perception of what's "normal."
You also sound like someone who hasn't been ripped off yet, which makes me think you're a bit too young to be giving any financial advice.
But I wish you the best.
I like to think I have a pretty good sense of scale. I understand the scale of the US government, the scale of money printing, the scale of wealth transfer, the scale of immigration and all the other factors I mentioned.
Don't know what you mean by ripped off. I am the type of person that takes responsibility for my decisions. I don't like to consider myself ripped off because that is a blame game that does not account for my lack of due diligence. Being ripped off usually means not accounting for risk which ultimately is my responsibility.
Friend just qualified for 300k loan on 70k income
Weimar Germany
1970's inflation housing did fine and stored value
current Europe housing market
I'm sure many of the MF Global victims took responsibility for their own risk, too. And the Enron employees, and the WTC insurer, and the...oh, nevermind.
Enjoy your 20s.
Attack the person not the argument.
The MF global people were defrauded. I do not blame them but it is irrelevant. If you want to prosper in this world you have to account for risk and be willing to take responsibility for the risk you incur. I really dont know what your point is.
BTW I have been the victim of fraud of a sizeable amount of my net worth. I take responsibility for the part I played in that experience. Live and learn.
What does fraud have to do with the housing market and my claim that it is at a bottom?
It proves you're wrong. The housing market is a fraud, and has been for decades. You're acting as if it isn't.
And I'm not attacking you. I'm telling you you're wrong.
…sells real estate.
If I wasn't busy doing other stuff right now I would be someone who buys real estate. But no I neither sell it or buy it (with the exception of my residence) I just have an opinion that is counter to 99% posting here and like to see if there is someone who can offer a rational counter opinion and not one that involves complete non truths like
1. no one has jobs
2. no one is lending
3. no one has money
4. no one has decent credit
Flat out fallacies.
it may not be 'no one' - but there are ENOUGH people to match the your 'riphowardkatz' rants that infact -
very few people have enough to pay for basics, let alone a mortgage. and when that happens - the IO stream that the lenders and the servicers depend on disappears - because it only takes a small percentage of people to stop paying and then they see losses.
the only thing floating the big banks right now is they borrow tens of billions at .25% and buy treasurys and mbs paying 1.25% and make the difference, which is called 'carry'. the difference is stuffed back to the tax payers that are left, sometime into the future. i know. it's complicated. i doubt you will figure it out.
You are overestimating how many people actually have free dollars sitting around to invest in housing. Baby boomers need younger generations to buy their crap. Younger generations are broke and getting more broke each day in this environment.
So you are going to debate the tape?
What tape? The tape on these charts look great to me. What part of those charts can't you understand?
http://www.jparsons.net/housingbubble/
I have no idea what you are talking about which is probably because you have no idea what you are talking about.
Hilarious to read all the BS on these comments.
Please answer one question for me
There are 2 x more dollars with tons of ability to leverage those up. Where is that money going to go? Its a simple question no one here has answered it yet. Very curious to hear anyone rational persons thoughts (I know that is wishful thinking)
There are 2 x more dollars with tons of ability to leverage those up. Where is that money going to go?
Now for sure you must not be paying attention. This has been covered here in tremendous detail for years.
The money goes into:
1) The enormous holes in all the banks' balance sheets
2) Short-term speculation in assorted commodities and futures
(You're on a site called Zero Hedge. There are news stories here. Read them.)
Yes, I am sure that the money facebook, google, apple, zynga,fed government workers, defense contractors, bankers, gov contractors, bridge to nowhere builders, health insurance providers and the people producing the commodities is all going to buy corn and copper. Holy smokes.
Also bank balance sheets for all intense and purposes are irrelevant. You think the balance sheets have stopped them from continuing to lever up and buy assets?
You may be able to read but you sure can't connect the dots.
I'm always ready to listen to another dumbass on the innerwebz with a differing opinion.
Show me up and drop some knowledge.
But Barrons says otherwise / sarc
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904797004577281453828447714.html?mod=BOL_hpp_cover#articleTabs_article%3D1
The low number of new houses for sale, as shown in the presented chart, is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. It is somewhat of good sign for the housing market and the home builders. What it really shows is that the huge overhang of existing homes for sale is not beeing made worse by adding new homes for sale. The restriction of supply has to happen somewhere, sometime, for home prices to bottom, and that is what we are seeing in the data of this chart.
Don't try to catch a falling knife!
Bullshit!
Reggie's March 2011 shadow inventory analysis.
http://boombustblog.com/index.php?option=com_content&catid=55&id=8866&la...
What the chart shows is an unhealthy housing market with no demand. Anything you read into it about timing is an opinion. In my opinion, people without jobs, or with jobs where pay is not being adjusted for inflation don't buy houses.
I am very well aware of the people I see day to day. The Fed has ruined this country for anyone that doesn't have direct access to printed money.
Damn that chart is bullish as all hell, think where the market will be when we get back to 2006 levels...
If you have a decent downpayment and relative job security, there is zero excuse why an American (or foreign investor) should not buy at these price levels. Your never going to be able to time the exact bottom, but...boy....homes are cheap right now on historical levels, especially since sentiment is rock bottom. Canadian real estate on the other hand is looking like an approaching tidal wave of destruction. Sell Canada, buy America.
middle-class wages in the 'kwa will NEVER come back.......EVER.
as long as the jew is in dc, new yawk, and hollyweird, the country and its unfortunate denizens are cursed.
Hitler was right.
Concur with your insight into Canadian real estate.
However, I would not buy a US house right now, give the underlying fundamentals there is no such thing as "relative job security".
A house purchase ties you to that local and limits your options. Rents are plentiful and of decent quality, purchasing is a bad decision, particularly if you have to take a mortgage out and are not paying cash.
If Wall Street bankers were so smart they'd IPO a company that turned single family homes into multi family apartments.
It's a good thing that houses aren't built as solidly as they used to be. With all the Chinese, Mexican, etc. construction materials, they'll start falling apart in 5-10 years.
So, short answer: Bullish.
2001 which is about 20 years after Japan's last housing recovery. They need to make financial instruments that anticipate housing prices will always fall. That is when I'll buy.
Had a buddy who was kicking ass as a housing consruction foreman from 1997-2007.
I haven't heard from him in five years now...
He literally dissapeared one day in 2007. His whole family. Gone.
This chart is his life, and he got seriously fucked. I hope he's been able to move on.
I know alot of people that fall into this same category. The construction did not slow down and then slip off a cliff. It hit a brick wall. It was a full stop inside of a few months. Never seen anything quite like it.
...on the chart
...down here
...in the black hole
....we is broke, immaculate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHNa_f28Q-s
The recovery has been Brusca'd.
But wait TD Securities "Chief Economist" Eric Green says otherwise...
"More bullish news for housing… Permits for homebuilding approached a 3.5-year high in February… New building permits increased 5.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 717,000 units last month – the highest rate since October 2008, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. Analysts were expecting a 690,000 unit pace… "The data provide further evidence of a rebound in housing activity. Housing is being nursed back to health, but getting out of rehab takes time," said Eric Green, chief economist at TD Securities in New York."
I wish I could be a Chief Economist some day...
Does anyone know of a developer/builder that was ahead of the housing bust?
Builders are naturally optimistic...they will pull permits and build empty homes until they file for bankruptcy.
Some of us have it made. IRA with a big bank, Social Security coming soon with regular increases for inflation (which is quite low BTW), our house will rise in value soon (just as soon as the 'inventory' clears...retirement ...looking good...all it took was attitude readjustment and these....not sure what the bottle says... 'happy pills' I call em..
In Hartford MI I seen an auction house sell for $25. It wasn't even a bad place either.
Just to state the obvious ... if we had a free market, then there was a normal trend lind of new houses sold (we can probably create that line); then the area under the actual sales line which is above the normal trend line has to be balance out by the area under the trend line ...
... In other words, don't hold your breath for a great year of new home sales this year or next.
You can actually see Barney get an erection in that chart.
People have been broken down so much, all they care about is keeping their house or their car and feedng their family. The words freedom, liberty and honor mean nothing when you are living hand to mouth. Things will change when people quit living on their knees and kissing the pinkie ring of "the chosen one".
Apparently Reuters thinks the housing market is just rosy
Signs of recovery grow in U.S. housing markethttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/23/us-usa-economy-newhomes-idUSBRE82M0PG20120323?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher