Plunging Empire Manufacturing Index Confirms Ongoing Economic Slide, Imminent Central Planner Intervention

Tyler Durden's picture

Recall last month's soaring Empire Manufacturing Index which jumped far above all expectations, and was the last of the "baffle them with bullshit" series? Well no more need for baffling: we are in NEW QE mode. In June the Empire Manufacturing plunged from 17.09 to 2.29, on expectations of a 12.5 print: the lowest in 7 months. Confirming the crash in the economy, New Orders, Shipments, Unfilled Orders, Inventory, Prices Paid, Prices Received, Employees and Workweek, or all the subcomponents were lower in June than in May. Gold soars as the NEW QE becomes more and more obvious on the horizon, as there has now not been an economic indicator beat in weeks. So much for the 2012 recovery. Without the central banking CTRL-P'ing, the US, or any other country, continues to be in free-fall mode. Hopefully that can kill any debate about a "virtuous cycle" once and for all.

Chart:

And from the report:

The June Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity expanded slightly over the month. The general business conditions index fell fifteen points, but remained positive at 2.3. The new orders index declined six points to 2.2, and the shipments index fell a steep nineteen points to 4.8. Price indexes were markedly lower, with the prices paid index falling eighteen points to 19.6 and the prices received index dropping eleven points to 1.0. Employment indexes also retreated, though they still indicated a small increase in employment levels and a slightly longer average workweek. Indexes for the six-month outlook were generally lower than last month’s levels, suggesting that optimism was waning somewhat, with the future general business conditions index falling to 23.1, its fifth consecutive monthly decline.

In a series of supplementary questions, manufacturers were asked about their capital spending plans: 43 percent said that they expected to increase capital spending over the next six to twelve months, while just 16 percent planned reductions—a somewhat more positive balance than in the August 2010 survey, when the same questions had been asked. In the current survey, high  capacity utilization emerged as the most widely cited factor contributing to higher capital spending; it had not been identified as a  leading factor in 2010. High expected sales growth and a need to replace existing capital equipment (especially non-IT equipment)  were also widely cited in the current survey as reasons for the increase in capital spending.