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Plunging Empire Manufacturing Index Confirms Ongoing Economic Slide, Imminent Central Planner Intervention

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Recall last month's soaring Empire Manufacturing Index which jumped far above all expectations, and was the last of the "baffle them with bullshit" series? Well no more need for baffling: we are in NEW QE mode. In June the Empire Manufacturing plunged from 17.09 to 2.29, on expectations of a 12.5 print: the lowest in 7 months. Confirming the crash in the economy, New Orders, Shipments, Unfilled Orders, Inventory, Prices Paid, Prices Received, Employees and Workweek, or all the subcomponents were lower in June than in May. Gold soars as the NEW QE becomes more and more obvious on the horizon, as there has now not been an economic indicator beat in weeks. So much for the 2012 recovery. Without the central banking CTRL-P'ing, the US, or any other country, continues to be in free-fall mode. Hopefully that can kill any debate about a "virtuous cycle" once and for all.

Chart:

And from the report:

The June Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity expanded slightly over the month. The general business conditions index fell fifteen points, but remained positive at 2.3. The new orders index declined six points to 2.2, and the shipments index fell a steep nineteen points to 4.8. Price indexes were markedly lower, with the prices paid index falling eighteen points to 19.6 and the prices received index dropping eleven points to 1.0. Employment indexes also retreated, though they still indicated a small increase in employment levels and a slightly longer average workweek. Indexes for the six-month outlook were generally lower than last month’s levels, suggesting that optimism was waning somewhat, with the future general business conditions index falling to 23.1, its fifth consecutive monthly decline.

In a series of supplementary questions, manufacturers were asked about their capital spending plans: 43 percent said that they expected to increase capital spending over the next six to twelve months, while just 16 percent planned reductions—a somewhat more positive balance than in the August 2010 survey, when the same questions had been asked. In the current survey, high  capacity utilization emerged as the most widely cited factor contributing to higher capital spending; it had not been identified as a  leading factor in 2010. High expected sales growth and a need to replace existing capital equipment (especially non-IT equipment)  were also widely cited in the current survey as reasons for the increase in capital spending.

 

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Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:41 | 2528777 pingpongthesecond
pingpongthesecond's picture

Any thoughts on why silver is so muted lately?

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:48 | 2528801 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Have you been missing out on the all the games they have been playing with gold and silver?

Yesterday silver fell 80 cents in minutes.  Here's why:

 

Between 9:30 and 9:35 AM 4,892 contracts were dumped on the market, and between 9:35 and 9:40 another 4,265 contracts were dumped indiscriminately, for a total of 9,157 contracts in a 10 minute span ON NO MARKET MOVING NEWS!!! - - 45.8 million paper ounces of silver.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/cartel-dumps-9000-paper-silver-contracts-in-10-minutes-during-am-futures-raid/

 

 

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:48 | 2528804 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

the cartel really defending that 1630 and 29 mark.. just had another take down

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:48 | 2528803 urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

People really don't like silver?

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 09:21 | 2528938 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

TPTB are obviously buying it like crazy behind the scenes.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:42 | 2528778 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

more fear than greed for gold.. SPX isnt doing much

silvers getting held down firm.. cant go on forever

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:42 | 2528780 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Wow, what happens when things actually improve?

 

Dow 16,000 next year?

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:46 | 2528794 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Dow 16,000 eh???  That's about 15,956 above your IQ........

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 09:39 | 2529009 IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

I think the Dow will hit 16K at some time in the future. 

The Zimbabwe stock market went way up as well.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 09:02 | 2528836 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

And what happpens when paper pushers stop gambling and start producing things of value.

Keep dreaming.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 09:33 | 2528985 iinthesky
iinthesky's picture

Dow 16000 aint shit.. when double B and the Mario Bros. are done we will have Dow 16000000

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:26 | 2529217 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

Wow, what happens when things actually improve?

Dow 16,000 next year?

only if things improve by then, bra-buster... and slim just left town...

16K in 2020 maybe;  yer 20/20hindsight should kick in, by them...

that capital expenditure number means people will be leasing new yugos thru what's left of their corpo-fascist goobermint-partner shells

zH will buy a new $125K NASA pneumatic screwdriver to see if tyler can do something about loosening these damned banksters screws on the mark-ettes...

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:47 | 2528787 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Irrelevant.

Ben is fueling up Airwolf.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:56 | 2528825 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

I love airwolf.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:59 | 2528834 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

this one's got precision-guided aid for banksters ..and pisses on the rest of the country

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:45 | 2528788 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Prices received plunges to 1.0 while prices paid drops to just 19.6!!!  With that far of a divergence, you got major margin pressure coming.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:54 | 2528819 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Coming?? Margins have been raped for months now.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:46 | 2528795 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

So, what happened to "Ben's waiting for a major gap down before next move? Has our schizoid market outsmarted Heliben with shallow corrections leaving prices elevated towards hyperspace as he finally caves in to "save the world" again? What a circle jerk "fuck tard" mind fuck retarded bizzarro trip!

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:52 | 2528814 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Well, they are the best and the brightest, according to my teevee.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:56 | 2528823 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

"Dragon Slayers"

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:48 | 2528802 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

The market is very bullish on the collapse of the american economy.. if we could only collapse faster I could get rich being long LULU

 

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:53 | 2528818 adr
adr's picture

The real economy is scared, nobody is buying anything. People are walking around stores since it is summer, but nobody is buying. Corproate buyers are hammering suppliers for more margin, but the vendors can't give any more. The economy is fucked if more QE comes.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:56 | 2528829 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

 "..Imminent Central Planner Intervention.."

that's going to work... always a big winner for everyone

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 08:57 | 2528832 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

So this is what if feels like when you start circling the drain.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 09:01 | 2528840 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

dizzying innit?

...worry not, the FDIC has got us all covered (cough)

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 09:05 | 2528851 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Just make sure you stay off of margin. Then, let the games begin. Nice to see Robot back to his old style.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 09:08 | 2528864 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Seems much higher than 2009 and in line with the bull years of 2005-2008, economy must be doing well...BTFD!

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 09:12 | 2528882 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

ES hits parity and *KABOOM* shoots higher.

That is so f'ing strange.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 09:20 | 2528931 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Why QE when just the expectation of QE does the trick?  Fake markets, fake money, fake QE, fake, fake, fake to infinity!

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 09:38 | 2528999 xtop23
xtop23's picture

We're not getting outright QE. Maybe a bit more Twist.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 09:42 | 2529022 asteroids
asteroids's picture

All these numbers are not to be believed. Were you lying to me then, are you lying to me now?

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:49 | 2529294 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Throw in plunging everything else. 

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/15/economy-shows-further-signs-of-weakening-will-the-fed-rise-to-the-rescue/

Bet Obama wished he hadn't said that the priivate sector is in great condition!

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