This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The PM Break Out Is Here: Now What?
Submitted by FMX Connect
Yesterday we published an article calling for a breakout in Precious Metals with a focus on Silver.
The breakout has occurred and you should be long both metals.
If you are long, or want to get long here your stop losses will be wide and volatility based. Here are some tips on managing the positions:
- Silver Stop Loss should be $32.45. You can pick a tighter stop if you like, but this is the proscribed level for pullbacks to go to and the bull move to remain intact. Losses can be managed by adjusting volumes rather than tightening stops.
- Gold Stop Loss Should be $1680.00. This may seem less risky than silver, but that often means worse reward potential.
- Tomorrow morning trail stops higher as profits occur, use previous lows, highs on the hourly level or the top Bollinger Band line on the Daily chart previous session.
- Get ready to take profits aggressively: when these hit, 80% of the projected volatility based move is in the first 72 hours
- Get out if you are not in the money in 48 hours, even if your stop isn’t triggered. Momentum fades fast if you don’t get follow through from the immediate push.
Good Luck.
»
- 18054 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
NEM reports after the bell, I think...
Irrelevant!
Buy gold and silver and fugedaboudit!
Didn't FMX Connect "predict" yesterday that PMs will go lower? Oh, right. They "hedged" their bet by predicting that PMs could also go higher. So I guess they were Wro..ght? Or is it wrought?
"My mind was wrought with things forgot."
JPM is using own shares to suppress silver price. Now that JPM and silver spot are getting closer to each other so watch out for shenanigans to kick in to cap silver's surge.
FX Connect says gold going down, instead it goes up
FX Connect says sell gold cause it went up.
FX Connect hasnt got a clue, and just guesses about tomorrow from whatever happens today.
Are you sure FX Connect isn't warehousing their own dirivitives..frontloading and bagging you?
Well I predicted a long time ago that it would either rain or go dark and I've been right every day since then. Now, who wants some investment advice?
Listen to Robo first, and then go buy some gold...
It was a hard wrought decision.
You don't need luck when you have all the bases covered. Similarly, you don't need buy/sell targets if you are stacking for the long term.
www.pmbug.com
+ 1
Long term.
The winners will be the ones holding physical PMs.
And that will be the one with the most guns. Always is.
except that i'm your gun dealer and i sold your details along with all the other disenfranchised righteous types' details to one of the local cops (he and his mates will pay you a visit if TSHTF)
and my polker buddy (the doc) says you havn't had your kids immunised - he's sold t6hat list to our buddies too
and all those long-life seed purchases you made? Well that's been sold too
i hope you have a lotta guns and a lotta cousins to help ya fight off dem ravenoors when thez a com a-knockin
the gold and silver that we hord
because we fear what comes
we'll give away for a loaf of bread
when the future comes a knockin'
when the future comes a knockin'
when tomorrow's at our door
what today is worth a fortune
will tomorrow make us poor
http://thepeakoilpoet.blogspot.com/2011/08/when-future-comes-knockin.html
what are ravenoors ? just wondering ........
Tax collectors, from revenuers...southern US whiskey runners, source of stock car racing. Yew mus be a furriner.
Peak Oil, Coldsun,
PMs and a couple of guns is about the best a condo-dwelling Bearing can do.
Either I leave for Peru (where I have "infrastructure", if you will) BEFORE, or fight off the zombies / thugs / fascists with what I have. Run or fight..., now THAT is a question.
Do be careful old stick, apparently there's a rapidly growing super volcano down there that could really ruin your day...
Yeah, we all read that POS yesterday and 72 of us green arrowed the second poster who commented "Pointless Article" because much like the scarecrow in The Wizard of Oz, he pointed both directions.
Now he's going to take credit on the record that he called this breakout??? Bullshit. He failed to call the direction of the breakout, so he gets no points from me.
No green from me either. We have been trading in the rough range of $1600-$1700 for more than 5 weeks and we get one 3% rise to the top of the range and everyone claims we have a breakout that's going to take us to the moon? Based on what, the few intraday points above $1700 that we already gave back? With markets in this much turmoil, and with the kind of volatility we have been seeing, We should have expected something like this.
I can't agree this is a confirmed breakout yet. With clear evidence of manipulation on the downside, we have to also consider that same process can be used a bit on the up side too without greatly upsetting the suppression game. Granted, TPTB cannot afford too much of a ramp, but to ignore that they could actually ramp prices to suck in the gold bugs is ignoring reality. Wait for confirmation.
You're right. I think "technically" the breakout isn't official until silver goes above that $33.50 point it hit on the intraday after slamming down to $26.
I think all of the charts, price points, market dynamics, actual demand, etc. are pretty much irrelevant. The ponzi wants the price to yo-yo; if they actually control the paper price, that's what will get them out of their shorts. This will also discourage investors, and shake out the weak hands. At times they'll let the price run, only to crash it again. Whatever makes silver and gold look as unpalatable as possible is what we can expect, now that they're ready to throw away the rule book.
If I could, I'd flush everyones macd's down the toilet. Wake up from the abortion of technical analysis in a manipulated market for Gods sake. All you painted chart chasing morons are going to get a whipping. You never learn.
I thought we would have learned that when gold last dipped to $688 on the intra day.
If that wasn't Goldman clearing out ALL their clients stops (having known precisely where they were and in what compressed quantity) then I don't know what is.
Since that day we just buy long physical and hold it regardless of any paper price.
No more will I hand over my gold to Goldman or anybody else through manipulation...
Smiddy,
I concur, my ass is still sore from the LAST euphoric hopes I had, at 1890-1910's.
CME comes in a hits the margin hikes, fully expect them to do it again, and we have expiry the 27th.
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on you.
CME is going to cover their butts, and we have been KNOCKED down now, what?, 3x's?.
My $ is they throw the sink at it to keep it under $2k.(Once it gets there, the Sheeple will even wake up).
They cannot afford it.
DosZap, go check out pmbug.com, started by above ZH-er bernorange. I think you would like it. And you don't have to jump through any hoops to join in (like you did for my blog).
I thought the saying was 'Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice and ...er...humm.... and ya ain't gonna fool me again..."
You Americans do elect some dicks to be Pesident don't you. I mean at least in the rest of the world they do tend to elect Presidents and Heads of State that can string more than two fucking words together...
It was fool me can't get fooled again. And also the populous actually voted for the other guy fwiw. But ur right. This nation is f'd up
Nuff said, LOL...
Smiddy,
Condy says you can't affort to wait for confirmation when it could come in the form of a currency mushroom cloud.
Seriously, I agree with you we can't yet tell if this is a breakout in the futures prices however these prices to me are increasingly irrelevant. The key issue for a purchaser is, and will increasingly become, the availability of the actual asset for delivery at a given (rigged) price.
The advice given in the article to sell as soon as the price moves ignores the massive imbalances that are showing signs of completely destabilizing the markets. My advice to anyone would be to not get cute and to not try to time the market.
Yep. No cigar from me either. Besides, all of the gyrations simply shake out the shorts on the way up, the weak hands on the way down, etc. All paper trading, knife-catching, chartists to me.
Today doesn't change my strategy or outlook a bit. We've seen a dozen moves of $45+ an oz in gold in the past 3-4 months, so what? Steady accumulation of physical for me. Always happy to see another sleeve arrive, no matter what squiggle things are following on Crimex.
Edit: it's interesting how the ZH crowd (of which I'm one) goes into deep forensic analysis on the inexplicable drops/smackdowns of PMs, but simply breaks open the bubbly on the upswings. Smiddy had a good observation on the other gold post today about bucking the options-expiry trend with some sleight-of-hand...
No.
They said they were poised for a move, and to trade in whatever direction it broke to.
BTW, shit like yours is not helpful (and a good reason for ZH to put an 'ignore user' feature in place).
No FMX said gold was going to break out up or down .They said buy a straddle but they didn't say what date or strike.
Anybody reading the article on the front page of CNBC?!!!!!!! Why the hell would they publish this? ARe they trying to get Bernanke lynched?!!!
That was pretty funny.
BEST TO BUY THE PHYSICAL AND WATCH THE SHOW FROM THE BACK OF THE THEATER
This article that came out yesterday said silver could go either way. I made the case that is was going higher based on five fundamentals. Those fundamentals have not changed.
1) COT Commercial Net Short percentage lowest since 2003....even lower than when silver was $8.90 in OCT 2008.
2) Largest Commerical Short Position against the Dollar I have seen in years. 59,000 Commercial Shorts compared to 9,000 Commerical Longs
3) Wholesale shortage is taking place when industrial buyers have to wait for delivery after buying at $30 an ounce
4) There is no GLOBAL SURPLUS of Silver....that's pure bunk....and there will be no surplus in 2012 or there after.
5) GFMS stated global slver supply would increase 7.4% to over 790 million oz in 2011 compared to 735 mil oz in 2010. Mexico's silver production was at 60.4 mil JAN-JUN, while last year it hit a total of 128.4. Peru's silver production is down 9% JAN-AUG. BHP Billiton just came out with their Q3 and they are down 25% YOY for the Q3 and down 20% for the first 9 months of 2011. Chile's copper production is down 4.3% in the first 8 months so you can figure their silver is down about the same percentage. Finally, the USA is down 10% JAN-JUL. 2011 will show a DROP not an INCREASE in global silver production
Investors may wish to buy PAPER SILVER and place stops, hedge positions and eat jars of tums all day long....but I believe the best strategy is to BUY and HOLD PHYSICAL.
Many mining analysts and CEO's of metal companies are clueless of the falling EROI, Land Export Model and the Peaking of Oil. They keep planning huge open-pit projects years and decades into the future and they have no idea of what the energy situation will be like at that time. Within the next several years this will become apparent.
According to Jeffrey Brown and his Land Export Model, if the 33 top net oil exporting countries have the same trend from 2005-2010, by 2020 Available Net Exports (ANE) will decline from 35 million barrels a day to 21 mbd. Now....if these 33 net exporters have a 1% decline rate per year of production, that ANE falls to 15 mbd by 2020. GOD HATH A SENSE OF HUMOR
The best and cheapest silver to own is that bullion you have in ones sweaty hands right now. Nationalization, trade wars, disintegration of supply routes due to a collapsing Fiat Monetary System will implode gold and silver supply at some time in the near future. We are witnessing the End of a Way of life. Best to be in the REAL THING.
+ 1 SRS
Unless you are a trader (which I am not), physical is the only way to go. Hide it well.
Don't know what you guys will make of this, but a friend of mine is the CEO of Australia's largest arsenic producer. Australia has lots of new gold explorers between 6months and 4 years from production. My friends business is now sold out of all future arsenic production until 2019.
Thats what he tells me anyway, never sure if i can believe everything he says, any opinions?
We're all just stocking up on poli-poison for the upcoming poli-cide frenzy.
Did read this morning that our banks have been 'ordered' to prepare recovery plans to show how they would survive another downturn ...
-
EROI,
Of interest and little covered by the financial media is that industrial silver users are going right to the silver miners to secure silver delivery - and paying premiums for delivery. The exchange prices are for the amusement of the populace.
On the silver EROI front, wait while the new technologies developed over the last 20 years get deployed to discovering and putting silver deposits into production and extending the life of existing deposits. It will take 10 years, and will not meet the monetary / investment demand but new production will come with declining EROI.
No mo Momo, Robo.
Po Robo, fomo go-go momo, oh oh, no mo dough, so low hobo.
Hobotrader has a nice ring to it.
+ 1
Very funny!
Netflix for sale or rent
Lululemon, only fifty cents
No gold, no pool, no bread
I ain't got no ZH cred .....
(dun dun) "King of the Gold!"~~
Thats what has been missing "the ring"
How did those tight stops on Netflix work for the momo crowd? ;)
Worked just fine as long as it was a market order.
Tight stops in Gold and Silver will get blown out if they head in the other direction. The smarter move would be to decrease your position size and use wider spots when volatility is crazy like this
I am still sticking with my topcall in gold.
I dont believe the eurozone bazooka is really 1.4 trillion.
MF off 45% at 2.00 WTF POOF! Another Goldmanite/NJ Gov destroys the world...I am sure they will put the drop in bonds against earnings...LOL LOL LOL OMG IDK OMG WTF whatever!!
I'm not sure it really matters. The consumer confidence number today ramped the likihood of an impending QE3 from "very" to "extremely".
"...., I think..."
LMAO.. Nice one Robo.. I think.. Ha
GRRRR. And today robo gets sodomized by a very angry bear.
NEM pales in comparision to a EU bailout agreement resulting in a 600 point climb in the DOW. Right robo? Thats what you posted Friday. Are we there yet?
NEM reports on the 28th before the bell Robot.
Thank you Tyler Durden for going back to Zerohedge's roots with posts like this one.
Trading is still the reason we're here.
The metals will get hammered tomorrow. It's options expiration day and the minimum payout for the cartel is $1875 gold and $32 silver.
Thanks, usefull info.
I missed the rally to all time highs. Am I too late? I've been known to sleep in. Sorry bout that.
How do i set 'stop-losses' on my physical gold and silver?
Trading gold and silver... seriously... that's an oxymoron, right?
And not just trading, day trading.
I'd take this more seriously had they not gotten a lucky breakout a day after their analysis was released. Pretty sure anyone could see the bollinger bands bending. It's as if because now in hindsight it was correct, the advice given now is relevant somehow to the future of any position you take.
It's thinking this way that kills your mojo. I think it's neat that they're correct, but hilarious that they're trading.
I will happily trade my silver for gold. At 15 to 1.
When the time comes, I will happily trade my silver for land or commercial properties. My gold is for my grandchildren. I'm going to spoil the shit out of them.
Intergenerational thinking gets another green.
Tellin it like it is, gets another.
Stop-losses = bullets
cock the hammer. heh, i just said cock.
I'll be damned.
You'll be in good company.
don't worry Buzz, those FRN's you are hoarding might just be used for buying physical silver coins yet. (I am not smug, but a bug none the less)
hello clymer, i deserve that. since the market is down today i am in a better mood. best.
hey dude, honestly I would rather see the dollar be saved - even if my pm's go down it just means the dollar is worth more. I have just learned to be the most cynical bastard alive when it comes to inept government and central banks
buzz is all right...he just likes to stir the shit & see what floats to the top.
He's holding some shiny stuff, I'd bet a fixed unit of 35 benny bucks on it...lol.
+1 for turning up;
-1 for your nonsense.
What I meant by "I'll be damned" is that zh is discussing an exit strategy. I didn't say gold would be lower tomorrow, yesterday did I? My prediction for silver is ~ $20/oz within a year. I did give a bunch of people an unwarranted measure of shit yesterday though, and I do apologize for that.
Forgive. Next time make your calls based upon more than a guess. Fair enough?
Dude, I've been watching the silver and gold markets since before you came out the crack of your mama's ass. You have the facts but I am just guessing? I'm guessing you were a butthole baby too but I could be wrong.
Well, buzzsaw99, that didn't take long now, did it?
;)
it takes one to know one. besides, i don't like him.
But you love me dont you?
Even if I am an ugly topcalling troll?
yesh i wuv u
The only durable troll in town gets green!
Wow. Are you this much of an asshole in real life, or do you save all of your assholeness for ZH?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IE3KdcTgrno
@IAMNotMark
Buzzsaw 99 and American Patriot do have a lot in common, they just rule their own dominion. Can't say I agree with either of them, but they are fun to read. A stired pot is much more interesting.
Respect.
Nice call on Gold yesterday. I will continue to watch what you write and go the other way.
I doubt you'll be here more than a few more weeks.
edit: here's some reading for you:
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/10/next-two-dates-to-watch...
even jesse is cautious after today. please keep buying, i want to laugh at you at a later date.
I reminded you yesterday of the barbaric metals 5,000 year history, you didn't listen. So I read Leviticus, re-convinced myself and bought more today. Thanks
this isnt the market you were looking for
...or go to the coin shop, buy an oz and put it in your pocket.
This information is such a joke. This is the reason why 90% of all commodity traders lose money. 100% of the fools who follow this advice will get knocked out within the next 48 hours. Buy physical.
Hell yes. Trading volatile markets with stop losses loads the dice..., against you.
More often than not you will get knocked out, but if you stay disciplined your few times you win will more than make up your losses.
I think there might be a small run here, but still doubt any new highs this year or next.
If you believe that we're in the midst of competitive currency devaluations, then there's no need to trade in and out of positions.
Just keep accumulating physical.
http://gainesvillecoins.com
2008, 140 plus crude killed the US economy.
Wonder what that number will be for the Brent for the ROW.
QE3 now will kill the global economy.
Doesnt mean they wont do it tho.
One could argue that $2T+ in toxic MBS played a role in 2008. But who can remember back then.
The toxic shit could have been shuffled around longer if there was some kind of nominal growth, it needed a trigger to set it cascading.
Energy prices set in motion the dominos.
Same thing going on now, nominal growth is allowing the bean counters to keep the balls in the air, when nominal recession destroys that illusion TSWHTF.
Energy prices will be the limiter again.
Maybe the printers can stave it off for a while, but high prices are a cure of their own.
On the 28th of this month a working 1MW cold fusion reactor is being demonstrated to investors. It has the backing of a Nobel laureate, the US Navy is researching a similar process.
Definately in the too good to be true basket, but what if........
Is the Nobel laureate now living at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., and the reactor being demonstrated in the city he last resided in, perhaps at the property of the former owner of the World Trade Center?
peak oil already killed the global economy
What are your thoughts on shale oil? I know you're well-read when it comes to energy, so just wondering if you think the recent attention is warranted?
I am no expert either, but I did read that the Bakken (in ND) and Eagle Ford (S TX) are both slated to produce a LOT of oil. POLAND has just found shales with oil that can be produced by horizontal drilling and fracking.
Shale is warranted as a quality distraction from the fact that peak easy to extract high EROI light sweet crude is quite scarce. This is one of the reasons why the resource acquisition team is in Libya (besides CB installation and the Gold).
RAT. Perfect.
Silver $48.
$48/2 until the warlords have squeezed enough weak hands
Ha - op expiry on 10/27 where every strike gets gamma hedged - consider yourself stopped
Yup. A move into opex, beware you high deltas.
"Ha - op expiry on 10/27 where every strike gets gamma hedged - consider yourself stopped"
Is that kind of like getting gammahooched?
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Flying%20Gamahooch
CME just hiked margins on internet bandwidth
website crashed bitchez
http://www.cmegroup.com/
Service Unavailable - DNS failure
The server is temporarily unable to service your request. Please try again later.
Reference #11.1d931160.1319571532.35b8503b
No problem from Germany.
DNS failure means that there is a problem with you Domain name lookup process not their site, which is at least for me working just fine. Have you been playing around with any of your network settings lately?
my friend at the SEC just emailed me a bunch of gay midget porn. they watch that shit all the time over there. maybe thats what did it
Ha ha. Yes, well from what I understand thats also about all they do. Ever.
It means they are trying to put nasty computers on the net from dark fiber with faked kerbos certificates or more likely faked windblows kaidos pc certificates.
english please?
Try the IP of 216.255.89.37 in your address bar.
It's not here yet...You'll know it when you see it...
Here are real-time, free long gold signals that are invoked when certain order flow momentum indicators align....they are incredibly accurate.
Algo Futures | WOW Index | Gold Day Trading Signals
Hope that you enjoy them....
TapeReader
Everybody make sure your broker knows all your paper PM stop losses because TPTB never pay for that information so they can stop you out and collect handsomely.
What are Gold and Silver stop losses?? I own Gold and Silver physically and don't plan to sell.
Think of them this way:
A PM investment in physical is akin to a potter making a really nice drinking glass.
Now if you want to "stop out" of the investment and share the wealth, this would be akin to the potter making the really nice glass with no bottom, so you could "share" your drink from both ends.
See how practical that is?
</sarc>
When in physical, there is no "stop loss" nonsense. Those are gambling terms.
The specs are making a concerted push. This is what I've been waiting for. Usually moves in 20% runs, so figure 1600 + conservative 15%... This one has legs to at least 1850.
Is it possible that the cartel is getting caught in a short squeeze, as they look to reduce on CFTC position limit requirements? I look for the specs in Asia to push it higher too.
Never bet against the house
Get ready to take profits aggressively. I have the same thing in mind.
i thought only muggers took profits agressively
Don't forget the IRS, unless you keep your "profits" off-shore....
But, then, I'm repeating you....
which would you rather receive as a gift, a new benz c class coupe or a few shiny gold coins?
In the real world most people would go for the benz.
In the ZH world most people would go for the coins.
Until most people in the real world become like the people in ZH I will keep buying gold, thank you very much.
Depends on how many coins. If we're talking a kilo, I'd take gold in a heartbeat. If we're talking 10 ounces, then I'd take the Benz, sell it right away and buy however many ounces the proceeds would allow.
a kilo of gold is worth $53,000, mercedes S600 AMG is worth $150,000. I'll take the car instead
Dirt roads and fancy cars don't mix.
Especially when the snow gets asshole deep to a helluva tall Indian....
You didn't state if the choice was for the car or the equivalent value in gold coins at the time.
No-brainer... coins if valued at current price of car. Far less depreciation likely!
Of course, your point is that the average person would rather have a flashy car rather than flashy gold coins of equal value.
This will change over time...
yeah, equivilent value. point was that most people including me would still go for the car so we cannot be in a bubble. when the time comes I choose the coins over the car I will start to think about unloading AU.
Got my Au stop loss set at $10k, but that's the physical stuff. Got my paper stop loss at Fahrenheit 451...
Nice one Hulk! Good seeing you around.
sure, i will bite. 35nov calls. roll them dice.
Great to see the move. I loaded up on a number of exotic derivative instruments yesterday called canadian maples...
I'll leave the magic to the warlocks and keep stacking. When it hits 9 bucks I'll sell it all to buzzsaw :D
love the avatar man.
thanks dude, likewise.
"Yesterday we published an article calling for a breakout in Precious Metals with a focus on Silver."
Yesterday you posted an article that said something was going to happen and ended with the note: "Last week we told people to keep their powder dry. Now it is time to load’em up. We’ll update you on a direction when we see it in the markets. – Good Luck."
Your call is about as useful as anything Robo utters.
They suggested a straddle position. Claiming that it will either break out or crash IS worthwhile info to a trader.
Fair enough, my bad.
fuu makes a good point though, and how can I straddle my SAEs and GAEs? I want to know if I should buy a little or a lot, or wait to buy a whole lot more later. Maybe his article or "analysis" was never intended for physical PM stackers...
You're better off just riding around on my coattails. Anytime you go off on your own, you fall on your face.
I can actually admit when I am wrong, you just change your name.
Yeah, and hey wasn't his avatar/picture Ron Paul just a few minutes ago? How can you go from freedom loving Ron Paul to a Hitler-esque smiley face?
He is probably having trouble registering new names. Now he just tries to fool people by switching avatars.
You know, the old cognative infiltration thing--give new people the impression that libertarians are abrasive, racist fascists.