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Point Out The "Housing Bottom" On This Chart

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The chart below is a representation of the Establishment Survey (B.1)showing workers in the Construction of Buildings Space, aka those who, as the name implies, build buildings. At 1,213,500 workers, this was not only the lowest number of 2012, but the lowest since May 2011, and is just 2100 workers above the last decade lows. Perhaps instead of relying on the NAR's self-promotional brochures and Housing Starts data which capture if and when a shovel has met the earth, one should perhaps track how much actual demand there is for building construction workers and how many jobs this critical component of the economy creates. Sadly, as the chart below shows, not much.

 


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Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:10 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Point out the bottom in housing on that chart?  Easy...just off the right side of the chart somewhere...right along with the "recovery" in housing.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:17 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Exactly.  Extend the chart to 2050 and the bottom will be obvious.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment economics9698
economics9698's picture

Down 28.6%.  Not a problem.  Green jobs will replace the old construction jobs.  Obama is a Harvard graduate.  

“I am concerned, as I’m sure many of you are, that these jobs not simply go to high-skilled people who are already professionals or to white male construction workers.” (Fmr. Sec. of Labor Robert Reich, Jan. 7, 2009, on how the stimulus money should be spent.)

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Did it ever occur to you that there were too many construction jobs before given that the demand was artificial....

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 13:49 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

- 2 million unemployed illegal aliens never counted. There, fixed it for ya.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:10 | Link to Comment Minyan Vince
Minyan Vince's picture

framers in short supply for the development where I'm building

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

which FEMA camp are you building?

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment Minyan Vince
Minyan Vince's picture

not building personally but having house built in suburb development

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:44 | Link to Comment HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

What is Lawrence Yun doing on ZeroHedge???

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

Good framers are always in short supply. Plumb, level, square- why that's old time thinking.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:21 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Lol.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:30 | Link to Comment orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

Framers? Framers? We dont need no stinking framers!

 

Just pick up some non-US citizen who doesnt even know what framing is...THEN HAVE HIM WORK FOR YOU!!

 

WORKS EVERYTIME...YOU SAVE MONEY....FUCK THESE HOME-BUYING SUCKERS.....

 

too easy

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 11:00 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

New housing starts in DFW UP 22%.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment LayPersonWatchin
LayPersonWatchin's picture

Of Course.  They are all expecting Texas to SECEDE.

I'm headed that way too.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Rental appartment bubble. Even CNBC figured it out.

Please build much more, I wanna buy cheap.

 

 

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 12:22 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

I know the "framers" of this country are rolling in their graves.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:11 | Link to Comment johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Snicker. Add that in with the U-6 NSA chart at the link below (up 0.8% month over month) and the question remains:

 

Who is going to buy all those empty homes again?

 

http://johngaltfla.com/wordpress/2012/07/06/all-you-need-to-know-about-t...

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Many of those empty houses were a mistake from the get-go.  They will be bulldozed.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

A lot of them are self-composting...

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

You stalking me, again, Flakey?

================

LOL, did you get your boyfriend to downgrade me, too?

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Can we please see a chart indicating employment in the Housing Demolition category to match that for Housing Construction?

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment deez nutz
deez nutz's picture

Who is going to buy all those empty homes again?

64 million empty apartments in China can't be wrong?

 

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

As long as the crooked, incompetent, lazy, surly retards ARE STILL BUIDING AND RENOVATING HOUSES....ROCK ON.

KICK OUT THE GOOD ONES.....I WANT SOME FOREIGN CROOK BUILDING MY HOUSE! PRETTY PLEASE!

 

Builder test: DO YOU KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A HAMMER AND A NAIL?

NO.

Hired on the spot!

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Construction has always been boom-bust but this bust will be the longest imo.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment Benjamin Glutton
Benjamin Glutton's picture

Link to PDF of Justice Department agreement dated june 26th/2012 not to prosecute Barclays criminallyfor LIBOR fraud.. Issued by Denis Mcinerney Chief Criminal Division,Fraud Section United States Dept. of Justice signed by Daniel Braun Deputy Chief of same and by Barclays  attorney Steven R. Peikin. crazy!!!

 

http://www.corporatecrimereporter.com/documents/Barclaysagreement.pdf

 

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:45 | Link to Comment strangeglove
strangeglove's picture

Redacted!

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I hear the DOJ issued something similar to Eric Holder regarding Fast & Furious. This is currently unconfirmed.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 15:33 | Link to Comment Amagnonx
Amagnonx's picture

A corporation is just folder with some papers in it, how can it be charged with criminal activity?  This entire process, and the entire idea of 'prosecuting' corporations is a joke - its a smoke screen, its an illusion of justice.

 

Only people can commit crimes, and only people can be punished - a corporation is a piece of paper, what punishment can it be subjected to?

 

Its time people woke up to this psychological trickery - some people are responsible for crimes, they need to be identified and punished then we might see some changes in behaviour at the boards of these cesspools of plunder.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:17 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I don't know how the union trade pensions stay solvent when it takes 4 guys working to support 1 retiree. there are less than 40% of the guys working out of the halls here in N IL. some retirede carpenters i know make $10K a MONTH in pension. and f-ing treasuries(where alot of this pension $ is parked) are paying %1.5???

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

The Pensions will buy the Spanish 2 years paying 7%..all is good

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Fake bottom created by gov real bottom still to come.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

People are now working mostly off the books in order to not be counted and ruin Obama's chances at getting re-elected especially true in construction jobs.  Expected statement sometime later today -- Jay Carney 2012.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:17 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Double bottom with an extra side of butt clevage....duh.

Seriously, can't you just feel the pent up demand that QE4, 5 and 6 is going to unleash. Recovery is going to be amazing. 

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

What's a small dip between economists?

Chalk it up as a productivity increase....

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

This is the new normal....I think we will see this for the next 5 years...the easy money demand curve is gone...its the 20-30% down curve now...remodeling will be the growth generator for builders IMHO

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:22 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The "bottom" is off the right of my computer screen...

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I have a multiple monitor setup, allowing me to extend the graph farther toward the future. The graph fell below zero and kept going down. We already have NIRP, so why not Negative Housing Construction Employment?

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

Vancouver Bubble still overpriced:

 

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/buyer+market+until+prices+drop/6892...

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/03/05/crea-housing-forecast.html

 

It's a global Housing Bubble that has a long way to go before corrected.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:28 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Housing bottom is at far right. Marc Faber and Warren Buffet bought in at the hump just to the left of the bottom right. I'm buying in after the end of the world in December.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:28 | Link to Comment Postal
Postal's picture

*points excitedly* There it is! I see it! I see it!

</sarc>

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:32 | Link to Comment Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

The housing bottom is off the chart, and not in a good way.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:40 | Link to Comment AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

I saw it but it managed to scurry under the shed before I could catch it.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:45 | Link to Comment giggler123
giggler123's picture

Nice curve, it just never happened in the UK though...

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:52 | Link to Comment johnjkiii
johnjkiii's picture

And to think it only took a $3 Trillion Fed balance sheet to stimulate this industry. Wow, I can't wait to see what we get for the next $3T. And then the Obammy Swami will kick in another $6T in deficits when he has more flexibility and I bet in 4 years we have a real bottom!! Whooppeee...

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment Patriot Eke
Patriot Eke's picture

New construction is ongoing near where I live (Charlottesville, VA).  It's hard to believe there are enough suckers to buy them.

Houses are not really framed as they once were either.  Most come on semi trailers with the walls already made.  They just put the pre-framed pieces together.  The house goes from the foundation to ready for inspection in a couple weeks.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

The reality is that during the housing boom of 2001 to 2005, especially in the sand states, the majority of construction workers on any job site were 3rd world illegals who have now returned to their home countries.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment theTribster
theTribster's picture

At least 20% more on the downside with a spike to the downside of as much as 50-75% in certain markets. The spike down should start sometime in December and continue through at least March of next year. The housing market is years away from a recovery, it will end up being a generational timeframe for the true recovery. The first quarter of next year will likely be the best time to buy to a house then you can expect a more typical 1-3% appreciation going forward. The spike down will represent the bottom of the market but it will still take yeras and years for prices to get back to 2007 levels!

We still have foreclosures at record rates and I've read that in California they want to use Emminent Domain as a way to leverage down the principle (house value) and then have the owners come back in under those favorable conditions. Problem with that is it will further destroy housing prices as these properties are revalued down. Not saying they shouldn't be lower priced but the market should determine the value not some group of politicians and banksters.

 

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 10:00 | Link to Comment GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

My youngest brother is a carpenter who works for a housing contractor.  He worked only 8 weeks this entire year.  90% of his co-workers are experiencing the same exact thing. 

Just now I saw some dumb ass white house correspondent on CNBS... spinning every piece of bad news into gold. 

There is no housing recovery.  There is no economic recovery.  The US does not produce anything anymore.  US factory/manufacturing jobs are gone FOREVER.  This service based, banana republic economy is on it's last leg.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 11:02 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

This service based, banana republic economy is on it's last leg.

Obaba & the 40 thieves are forecasting a 5.6% increase in 21013 with stimulus.

They are smoking Crack, if they believe WE believe that.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 16:27 | Link to Comment oldmanofthesee
oldmanofthesee's picture

That dumb ass had to be Mark Zandi. Struggling for a positive spin. Even Liesman was incredulous.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment geoffb
geoffb's picture

I know economists use econometric methods, sigma's and what not, but I found that if you hold a mirror to the top of the chart everything looks great! This economics stuff is e-z.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment Postal
Postal's picture

*holds a left-facing vertical mirror on the right side of the chart*

By golly, you're right. Just look at that recovery! </sarc>

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment phat ho
phat ho's picture

"This service based, banana republic economy is on it's last leg."

EZ answer: we'll just attach a RPG (or something) to this sexy strippers leg from the movie "planet terror" and let the good times roll.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/planet_terror/

 

 

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment TrainWreck1
TrainWreck1's picture

Since we now have negative interest rates (Denmark) it is reasonable to expect that somewhere, perhaps in a 2nd term for Obama, the concept of negative workers will emerge.

These anti-workers will increase as the economy is further disintegrated, leading to charts showing impressive growth in 'negative workers' and happy AP soundbites for the media to regurgitate.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

 

“Look across the chart, Lennie, an’ I’ll tell you so you can almost see that housing bottom.”

Lennie turned his head and looked down the darkening slopes of the housing chart.

“We gonna sell our McMansion when we get past there, Lennie,” George began.   "When we ain't under water no more." 

He reached in his side pocket and brought out Carlson’s Luger; he snapped off the safety, and the hand gun lay on the ground behind Lennie’s back. He looked at the back of Lennie’s head, at the place where the spine and the skull were joined.

"We're gonna cross that bottom, and things are gonna start lookin' up."

Lennie giggled with happiness. “An’ live off the fatta the lan’.”

“Yes.”

George raised the gun and steadied it, and brought the muzzle of it close to the back of Lennie’s head.


Fri, 07/06/2012 - 11:40 | Link to Comment Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Bravo.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment phat ho
phat ho's picture

'Of lies; and Ben'

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Look at the mortgage applications. Applications for purchase have been stuck in a rut since June 2010.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/05/consumer-discomfort-mortgage-applications-fall-6-67-consumer-comfort-drops/

There is some magical about June 2010. NOTHING HAS GOTTEN BETTER! See employment since June 2010.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/06/summertime-blues-u6-unemployment-rises-to-14-9-nonfarm-payrolls-grow-only-80k/

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 14:28 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Michael,

Their employed if they want road work,or fast service food jobs.

In my A/O, there are ZERO caucasions working at all convience stores, and gas sations,and 90% of all Fast Food joints are hispanic or blacks. And this city has a median income of six figures.

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