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Point Out The Recovery On These Charts

Tyler Durden's picture


The last couple of months have been characterised by some weak but 'relatively positive' surprises in macro economic data compared to dismal expectations; but that rising momentum has begun to fade very recently. Sagging domestic growth and weak external demand have created noticeable slowdowns in the industrial production and manufacturing sector. This, as Bloomberg Brief notes, has been the area of the economy that has been the primary driver of growth throughout the recovery and represents the greatest risk to the current economic outlook for sub-trend growth at or below 2 percent. As Joseph Brusuelas points out, these disappointing charts indicate, fiscal gridlock aside, the deterioration in the industrial sector is a 'dagger pointed straight at the heart of a weak cyclical expansion'.





The current challenge to the economy is that the risk of a truncated business cycle due to a modest inventory correction is rising. This is in part due to restrained domestic wage growth and a sharp slowdown in demand from the external sector.


While investors have been nothing short of giddy about the open market transactions by the European Central Bank and the third round of asset purchases from the Fed, it is difficult to see how those actions will do little more than prevent another downturn, let alone push overall output in the U.S. toward its potential.




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Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:36 | 2817326 GetZeeGold
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No cheating....put on the blindfold.....spin around...and throw the damn dart.


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:39 | 2817332 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I found the recovery "right in here in this area that include the Chicklets but not the erasers."

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:42 | 2817339 GetZeeGold
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right in here in this area


If you're in the 47%.....just take won't cost you a dime.


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:51 | 2817360 LawsofPhysics
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Now that is encouraging some animal spirits, nice work!

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:21 | 2817433 BadKiTTy
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I havent seen The Jerk for ages and forgotten that bit. Nicely done! :) 


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:09 | 2817402 SusanJ
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Charts are in line with ECRI, their latest missive reminding the MSM of how bad people are at recognizing a recession:

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:10 | 2817403 SusanJ
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Charts are in line with ECRI, their latest missive reminding the MSM of how bad people are at recognizing a recession:

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:37 | 2817330 Haager
Haager's picture

You're blind, sir. There is a lot of recovery: Gold, silver...

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:52 | 2817366 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

battle lines broken above $35 silver, $1,780 gold, until the margin hikenator awakens!

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:59 | 2817375 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

wondering what lit this fuse at 8 05 am

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:08 | 2817396 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

not the dollar, index up from 79.05 at 4:00am to 79.30 now

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:57 | 2817334 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The upcoming war will do a lot to help industrial production. That should turn things around for them...that is if they can get things up and running.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:20 | 2817430 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

War....what is it good for?

Per Krugman........economic recovery. But from my point of view I would rather have the space alien invasion.

<Then again Mrs. Cog says I'm a sick bastard, so don't listen to me.>

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 10:53 | 2817873 Seer
Seer's picture

"They" don't reall care about production as much as they care about retaining power.  What wars do for them is to allow them to alter the production climate, likely take more direct control over it (the most covert way, the way that most miss it, is via "consolidation").

But... iBombs will be the new "rage!"

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:40 | 2817336 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

talking heads say it's a recovery,problem is they are reading charts upside down

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:51 | 2817359 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Standing on their heads is more likely.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 11:05 | 2817957 Seer
Seer's picture

Kind of hard to hear them with all that colon around their heads...  Maybe that's the problem?

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:41 | 2817337 pods
pods's picture

Pretty simple.  America has too much debt.  Nobody can afford to pay it forward anymore by going deeper into debt.

So we will grind slowly down, with the banks kept alive by the FED.

Welcome to the desert of the real.



Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:59 | 2817377 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

But I thought that deficits didn't's seems like maybe they do.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:09 | 2817401 RSloane
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Not only deficits don't matter, debt is good, and uncertainty adds a positive 'hungry' aspect to the markets. You've not been keeping up with propaganda, my good Dr. E. Just open up the NYT and peruse the editorials section. Bring a sense of humor and a sense of belief suspension required by most fiction.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:49 | 2817550 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Deficits don't matter. The debt doesn't matter. It is not as though it will ever be paid back so it doesn't matter...

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 11:11 | 2817979 Seer
Seer's picture

Deficits are based contractual debts.  The REAL problem, the one they won't own up to, is that the contracts have gotten so complex that they cannot decipher them.  In the meantime we print funny money as a placeholder until... well, until we can figure out what really has value...

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:41 | 2817338 Sheeple Shepard
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Emmm...there,no......emmm...there? No,,no.We are definitely fucked.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:42 | 2817341 Howdan
Howdan's picture

This total decoupling between the REALITY of (fundamentals) and the actual current market levels, is so utterly staggering that I am just slack-jawed in amazement.

Shorts have been burned (well maybe it's just me) but I cannot understand how indices and industrial commodities (e.g copper) are so high when real demand and sentiment are so low.

I shake my head in disgust.

Bernank is a financial terrorist who is utterly incompetent and should be held accountable (by the likes of Ron Paul) for his actions. It's been nearly half a decade now since 2008 when ZIRP was forced upon us.

Stagflation looks like it's on the way.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:49 | 2817352 LawsofPhysics
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Correct,I'll only add that all the only thing the paper-pushers need to be held accountable to is the guillotine.  Nothing changes until the moral hazard  is addressed and we see the return of real consequences for bad behavior at all levels of society.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:57 | 2817369 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Save your jaw and get used to it. Whether this is the 'new normal' or everyone wants to be Japanese, I don't know. Bernanke will NEVER be held accountable and, in fact, will be white-washed in the history books now being written as our savior and hero. His bungling will be described as 'courageous and bold', his financial terrorism will be described as having 'saved the US economy from depression', and his followers will feel justifiably assuaged. This will be the TPTB's propaganda coup d'etat at its finest, and its happening right now.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:06 | 2817385 crusty curmudgeon
crusty curmudgeon's picture

Okay, you're fired. :-)

-John Connor

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:11 | 2817407 RSloane
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Oh noes! Not the 'F' word. :(

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:59 | 2817591 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

No, it is not just you, Howdan

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:44 | 2817345 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Is that a smiley face i see in 2009???

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:45 | 2817347 KickIce
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There's only 2 charts you need to be concerned with...

Banker bonuses and money supply and since they are one in the same we're back to one chart.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:50 | 2817349 LawsofPhysics
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I see a distinct recovery in the value/purchasing power of all my physical assets, especially PMs since I first began purchasing in the lat 80's.  WTF?


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 11:30 | 2818057 Seer
Seer's picture

Well, "recovery" really isn't, as it implies a "return."  We will NOT "return."

But, yes, meaningful assets will be more valued that then overwhelming non-meaningful crap that we've been surrounded by.  TRUE fundamentals make it clear where to look to identify what's what, separate the wheat from the chaff...  slowly, very slowly we shall learn.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:47 | 2817353 RSloane
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Alright. Whose kid attacked the Manufacturing:New Orders chart with a box of crayons?

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:55 | 2817368 crusty curmudgeon
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I think it was Ralph.

"I like bushes cause they don't got prickers, unless they do; this one did...ouch."  -Ralph Wiggum

"Me fail English?  That's unpossible!" -Ralph Wiggum

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:03 | 2817382 RSloane
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Haha! Yep you're right, it must have been Ralph.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:50 | 2817356 LongSoupLine
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Obviously, American flag manufactures have been excluded.  Production can't keep up with global burning rates.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 12:16 | 2818271 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Outsourced... Chindiazilurmaxico can keep up easily enough.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:51 | 2817357 mademesmile
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How far down the slope before another recession is called? Or is a matter of holding off till November 7th?

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:58 | 2817374 RSloane
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Fri, 09/21/2012 - 08:51 | 2817358 TWSceptic
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PM just got a major morning wood.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:04 | 2817383 hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

You mean tungsteny.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:06 | 2817387 Vegetius
Vegetius's picture

"Bernanke will NEVER be held accountable and, in fact, will be white-washed in the history books now being written as our savior and hero. His bungling will be described as 'courageous and bold', his financial terrorism will be described as having 'saved the US economy from depression', and his followers will feel justifiably assuaged. This will be the TPTB's propaganda coup d'etat at its finest, and its happening right now."

Problem with this outcome for the Elite are two things OIL and FOOD. Price of food will double in the next 12-18 months we can all see the crop problems over the major food exporters and oil should be going down in price in the teeth of a Depression such as the one we are entering, its not, its going up. These are the things that really matter and when people start to get really hungry there will be Blood

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:13 | 2817414 crusty curmudgeon
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You say that as though food and oil shortages aren't being created by design.  It's hard to rebel against the same authority that's handing out your next meal at the front of a very long line.  Or that owns the house you're living in.

Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag and begin slitting throats. —H.L. Mencken

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:23 | 2817438 LawsofPhysics
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...wait for it.  Timing is everything.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 17:07 | 2819309 Seer
Seer's picture

"You say that as though food and oil shortages aren't being created by design."

Of course there will be shortages by "design."  This is a fucking finite planet!  We either start killing ourselves (well, that's pretty much heating up now), or we agree to spread the "bounty."   I'm not thinking that the later will happen as that would be "socialist"  (or whatever is supposed to scare people the most); AND, people would STILL overrun the planet's resources: any "solution" is moot because we don't understand what the real question is...

Wed, 09/26/2012 - 01:00 | 2830938 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Nature understands. It's entropy. It's evolution. Keep growing the most efficient energy-converting mechanisms, life, and keep consuming other life to do so by destroying the lesser-efficient strategies. It's still working and working well.

Spreading the bounty is NOT how we do this.

Reducing the population starting with the least useful is how we do it. When we aren't killing each other in war it's called starvation. Happens all the time. It's arrogant for humans to think that while every other life-form must face it, sometimes even due to us, that we will not face it. We WILL face it.

Wed, 09/26/2012 - 00:42 | 2830919 MeelionDollerBogus
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it is design - the design is called the real true fact of global warming destroying all crops & moving the rains from the oceans precisely where you DON'T need them - drought one place, monsoon in another and extra humidity in summer.

But as soon as facts get seen the zombies step forth and scream the most horrific lie of all - that there is no global warming - there by demanding suicide for us all.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:21 | 2817432 RSloane
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TPTB are way ahead of you. One word - drought. Another two words - Saudi oil. Besides that, oil and food are discretionary items, don't you know. They are not part of  inflationary pressures and will be disregarded. How can TPTB be blamed for an act of nature and the actions of a foreign government[s].

If you find yourself paying almost double for food in the upcoming months [which I think is a realistic possibility], its because -YOU- are not being discretionary enough. Stop buying luxury items like bread and milk. Savers are already being punished. Next up, consumers.

Wed, 09/26/2012 - 00:40 | 2830917 MeelionDollerBogus
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Actually oil did take a big drop & nat-gas & electricity and uranium are way down compared to recent highs. Gas isn't though because until you're willing to refine it yourself or switch to diesel (and veg oil in a diesel engine) you depend on central planners & their mafia protection-racket.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:21 | 2817434 adr
adr's picture

The believers in Animal Spirits thought they could print money and manufacture massive amounts of inventory to get the economy rolling again. If they built it people would buy it, because they would see fully stocked shelves and think the economy was doing better.

The same thinking went into the stock market. That if they could levitate it, people would buy stocks. If the stock market recovered, that must mean the economy is growing.

The idea is to get people to believe an illusion. The economy isn't actually getting any better, but if it looks like it is people may spend. The problem is an illusion only works when people can't figure out the mechanism of the trick. If you see the bar levitating the girl, it isn't impressive at all.

What policy makers, politicians, economists, and silver spoon billionaire heirs don't understand is the "wealth effect" comes from employment. People won't spend if they are worried about their job. I think they don't understand that fact because nearly all of them have never held a real job in their life. If you never had to worry about paying bills, or figuring out if youcould afford to eat, you can never understand the mindset of an average American.

Barack Obama can never understand America because he was spoon fed a manufactured lifestyle his whole life. He lived in Hawaii and went to the best private school. Wealthy Chicago socialists paid his way through an ivy league school. He didn't have to try and find a job, he was given one and then was groomed for public office by the same people that paid his way through college. He may think he actually worked for a living, but there was never any danger of failure, and therefore no risk. Perhaps if he lost the election in 08, he would have ben cast out as a failure. If he lost we probably wouldn't have heard from him again.

Barack was a Manchurian Candidate manufactured by elite socialists to win a presidential election so he could grant them their every wish. He was never anything more than a tool to be discarded when it was no longer usefull.

That is why there hasn't been a recovery outside the 1% and the bottom welfare class. There wasn't ever meant to be one.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:59 | 2819292 Seer
Seer's picture

"Barack Obama can never understand America because he was spoon fed a manufactured lifestyle his whole life."

People really out to catch on how things really work...

Obama and all the other PUPPETS are TOLD how they are to perform.  Whether the PUPPETS believe a certain way, "understand America," is really beside the (TPTB's) point...

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:25 | 2817442 Shizzmoney
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Tyler, I dunno what the fess is all about. 

"The jobs are coming"

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:41 | 2817504 RSloane
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....any minute now....

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 17:23 | 2819341 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
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"Jobs is on the way..."

(up arrow from anyone who remembers Firesign Theatre)

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:40 | 2817501 Tombstone
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Relax, the markets will not go down until Benny has forced every last dollar into them.  Then, like 2000 but worse, in the blink of an eye, we will go from feeling wealthy to lining up for a handout from Obamafare.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:48 | 2817540 Metalredneck
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Welcome to the new normal.

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