Portugal 10 Year Yield Passes 15% For The First Time, Is Where Greek 10 Year Was In August

Tyler Durden's picture

As the world awaits resolution out of Greece and the debt exchange offer which even if passed today would have to cram 6 months of actual work into 54 days, the global bond vigilantes are not sticking around, and continue to attack the next weakest link - Portugal, whose 10 Year bonds just passed 15% in yield, and were trading well below 50 cents of par with CDS hitting a new record of 1350 bps. Naturally this has brought out the ECB's crack bond buying team (only at a central bank does a "trader" need only know how to buy, selling skills are optional) which tried to put the genie back in the bottle but now it is too late. After all, vigilantes are just wondering what form the Portuguese restructuring will take place considering that unlike Greece the bulk of its bonds have strong protections. So if one does use Greece as a benchmark how long does Portugal have? As the third chart shows, the last time 10 year GGBs passed 15% was back in August. So Portugal has 6 months. Give or take.

Portugese 10 Year Bond Yield:

and cash price of 2021 bonds.

...Compared to Greek 10 Year Yields.

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LongSoupLine's picture



but, but..the earnings today are above "expectations", and everyone in Davos is bullish.

Rodolfito's picture

'So Portugal has 6 months. Give or take.'

or less, because things get faster and faster the nearer we get to the toilet bowl.

disabledvet's picture

six months, six weeks, six minutes. it's all the same. Just remember..."6-6-6." Just like the economic plan that's rescuing the American economy right now.

midtowng's picture

everyone is so focused on Greece, that they seem to have forgotten that the disease has already spread to the rest of the body.

Irish66's picture

I'm trying to find out if Ireland made their payment yesterday. Next

EscapeKey's picture

No doubt the attendees of Davos are currently drafting a proposal which would state that missing a coupon payment is not a credit event.

LongSoupLine's picture

Only one name in Davos really matters...Soros (read: owner of everyone in Davos' balls)

Scroto Gaggins's picture

Here comes that resolution...wait for it, w a i t  f o r  i t, w  a  i  t   f  o  r   i  t.

Silverhog's picture

Sky is blocked out with black swans. Just shoot straight up and you will hit one.

americanspirit's picture

Those aren't black swans my friend - those are chickens and they're coming home to roost.

Dick Darlington's picture

 greek PSI rumours update.  as suspected, the local reports of a new IIF deal were not the whole story.

greek papers now saying the IIF will table a deal with a lower coupon but only on condition the ecb take part.

so we're back to where we were a couple of days ago and the day before that and the day before that and the day before that and...

falak pema's picture

Is that the return on Investment for ALL investment in Portugal? If it is I like that! Not just on sovereign bonds...

falak pema's picture

Long soupline :

Davos is where they dance swan lake, the Oligarchs. Now that all the swans are black ones thy will need goggles to make them all look white as the snow. 

Ha, Ha, ha...listen to Arianna Huffington puffing moral talk at Davos...I love these Oligarchs caught with their bras off...oups, panties wet...oups...


BLODGET and HUFFINGTON: Here's How To Fix Capitalism

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/#ixzz1kZPHrSiC


Dr. Engali's picture

I thought growth fueled by debt was supposed to take care of debt problems? Oh yeah there is no growth. Idiots.

Alex Kintner's picture

Portagee bonds at 15% -- it's the chance of a lifetime.

But I like their wine and chourico better.

pazmaker's picture

Caciola is absolutely delicious and so is the  lingucia and malasadas

NooooB's picture

I almost fell off my chair! Someone on ZH knows what chourico is! Ehy Boy! Ta Bom!

fonzannoon's picture

Can anyone on here tell me if there is a point where the plunging baltic dry index actually indicates anything or is it a completely useless indicator?

EscapeKey's picture

You should know by now;

BDI goes up = strong demand.

BDI goes down = overcapacity.

There are absolutely no other factors at play.


fonzannoon's picture

no need for sarc when you are totally correct.

jmcadg's picture

The half life of all current events dictates max 3 months.

fonzannoon's picture

Then I am going long for 2 1/2 months.

bgilliam83's picture

I'm just a gambler but to me this signifies that it's done like dinner.  The value has been sucked out of betting against Greece now, and if you know they are defaulting then much better value to spread around.  Get ready, the end is nigh.

RobotTrader's picture

CAT up $3.50 pre-market, where's the recession?


Was Rosie short CAT?  $70 to $113 in just 4 months, that's an eye-popping move for a big Dow stock.

somethingisrotten's picture

Spam Lizard is back.

WHERE is the IGNORE button?

Irish66's picture

What are they gonna do with all that inventory?

RobotTrader's picture

Why do we need zero interest rates with cyclical names like Dupont warning on earnings yet the stock continues to accelerate higher?


We need interest rate hikes, not cuts.  The economy is booming.

At this rate, we are going to have yet another stock market bubble in 2012.

fonzannoon's picture

HAHAHA Robo...I really enjoy your posts. Someone please send Robo the debt clock and explain interest payments on debt and rising interest rates to him.

kralizec's picture

OK, we have a "P" and a "G", lets get that "I" & "S" going and we can have that spit rotating full!

jmcadg's picture

The economy is booming! RT you're an idiot.

RobotTrader's picture

Gold made a statement yesterday.


If gold continues to rocket up higher with the mining stocks leading after the huge pummelling they took, then Dow 15,000 is a lock.

The crashing mining stocks was really the only hope the bears had of seeing the Dow fall back below 11,000.  After yesterday, looks like scenario is off the table.

disabledvet's picture

no different from an oil company--save for the fact that the oil majors (and minors) make mucho dinero even if oil is at 15 bucks a barrel. of course Barrick is your number one choice if you're gonna 'go for the gold." Nothing even comes close.

Hulk's picture

Notice to readers of zerohedge:

When the Dow is below 11,000 and gold is above $2000, Robo will be nowhere to be found.

We have been playing this game every since Gold breeched $1000

That is all for now, except we are all Portugese now, oui?

jmcadg's picture

We'll see Dow 6,000 before we see Dow 15,000.

Anyone can take a random stock to try to prove a point. And fuck we all know you're good at that RobotTrader.

Try telling 23% of Spain that the economy is booming, or the real level of unemployed in the US, which anyone who has a brain knows is nowhere near 9%.

Oh gold made a statement yesterday. Say, you're not rooting for Mitt Romney are you? Flip Flop Fucker.

bgilliam83's picture

no chance man.  0% locked in to 2014 even wiemar/germany could explode under these conditions, and they didn't have a cartel like this did they?

vegas's picture

These PIIGS peripheral sovereign debt is like a bad movie that keeps appearing on TV and I am forced to watch. The fact is, there is no interest rate that is justifiable for this shit. You can't make chicken salad out of chicken shit no matter how much cinnamon you sprinkle on it. WTF.