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Portugal Is Next: Improverished PIIG Demands US Assistance, Debt "Haircut" To Come Next

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It has been just over 48 hours since our call that PIIGS the world over will scramble to demand the same concessions that were just granted to Greece courtesy of its economy being in the toilet and getting worse (thanks to lies to misrepresent the Greek economy as being worse than it really was). We already got Ireland yesterday. Now it is Portugal's turn. Reuters reports that "Portugal asked Mexico on Saturday to tell fellow G20 members next week that the United States should offer "financial help" to resolve the euro zone sovereign debt crisis, describing it as a "systemic and global" problem, a Portuguese government source said." Of course, the "US" is a clear proxy for "everyone else" - that the US, whose politicians can't agree on a fiscal stimulus for the US, let alone for some country by the straits of Gibraltar they have never heard of, will not move an inch to save Portugal is a given. Which means that once Portugal is, as it anticipates perfectly well, shut down by the US it will commence demanding for help from those who at least can grant it - the EMU and the Eurozone. And when those refuse, Portugal will do the glaringly obvious: take a page right out of the Greek textbook and proceed to suicide its own economy. And why not - it worked miracles for Greece. Now: two down and two to go. The only question is when does Italy do precisely the same logical next step, and tell the world that its $2+ trillion in debt, the second most in the Eurozone after only Germany, is unsustainable, and will need a modest haircut. 20% should do it. We wonder, what will that do to French banks (and their "perfectly hedged" US proxies - such as MF Global and others)?

The story from Reuters:

"The crisis isn't in the euro zone. It is a systemic and global crisis and we hope that other big G20 countries intervene," the source told reporters in the capital Asuncion, speaking on condition of anonymity.

 

The source added that Washington should help resolve the crisis "by boosting trade and also with financial help."

 

No one from Calderon's delegation in Asuncion could immediately be reached for comment.

 

Financial markets rallied strongly this week after European leaders hammered out a deal to recapitalize their banks, boost the firepower of a euro zone rescue fund, and impose hefty losses on holders of Greek debt.

Portugal's deepending financial plight was described in great detail late last week by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph:

Monetary contraction in Portugal has intensified at an alarming pace and is mimicking the pattern seen in Greece before its economy spiralled out of control, raising concerns that the EU summit deal may soon washed over by fast-moving events.

Data released by the European Central Bank show that real M1 deposits in Portugal have fallen at an annualised rate of 21pc over the past six months, buckling violently in September.

 

"Portugal appears to have entered a Grecian vortex and monetary trends have deteriorated sharply in Spain, with a decline of 8.4pc," said Simon Ward, from Henderson Global Investors. Mr Ward said the ECB must cut interest rates "immediately" and launch a full-scale blitz of quantitative easing of up to 10pc of eurozone GDP.

 

The M1 data - cash and current accounts - is watched by experts as a leading indicator for the economy six months to a year ahead. It has been an accurate warning signal for each stage of the crisis since 2007.

 

A mix of fiscal austerity and monetary tightening by the ECB earlier this year appear to have tipped the Iberian region into a downward slide. "The trends are less awful in Ireland and Italy, suggesting that both are rescuable if the ECB acts aggressively," said Mr Ward.

 

A shrinking money supply is dangerous for countries with a high debt stock. Portugal’s public and private debt will reach 360pc of GDP by next year, far higher than in Greece.

And where monetary shrinkage arrives, economic deterioration is always next. But just to make sure of that, Portugal has just set the first of many dates for a General Strike. Mark November 24th on your calendars. This is when Greece officially becomes Portugal.

 

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Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:34 | 1824991 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Scrambled PIIGS bitchez!

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:14 | 1825088 gojam
gojam's picture

Rush to play dead, They're no longer PIIGS, they're Possums!

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:15 | 1825101 ratso
ratso's picture

Actually, they are money eating Zombies that can't be killed.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 21:45 | 1825486 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Portugal translation:  USA PLEASE ICANHAZ PRINT?

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 00:16 | 1868915 haibop
haibop's picture

Seriously they ARE memory foam...

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 19:23 | 1825252 SamAdams1234
SamAdams1234's picture

Bacon, PIIGS

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 02:46 | 1825462 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

Lipstick on PIIGS is making the markets go hog wild.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 22:11 | 1825522 philipat
philipat's picture

Let the PIIGS take RESPONSIBILITY for their own actions and let the French Banks fail. Problem solved. Now, can we move on?

Sat, 03/10/2012 - 21:24 | 2244024 haibop
haibop's picture

good idea. Inteligator

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:36 | 1824999 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

That's only fair.  I always thought Portugal was the 51st state.  Oh wait, that was Porto Rico and the food stamp thang.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:37 | 1825004 max2205
max2205's picture

Been tracking MF for 4 years. This came out of the blue....

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:40 | 1825013 malikai
malikai's picture

I wonder what the chances are for a double top secret bailout from Benocide and co.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 11:48 | 1915105 haibop
haibop's picture

sure nice to know walk in cooler

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:41 | 1825018 glepo
glepo's picture

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:43 | 1825020 Mae Kadoodie
Mae Kadoodie's picture

#occupy PIIGS

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:53 | 1825045 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

I wish these Occupy folks would steps things up a few notches. It would be nice to see some violence. Molotov cocktail projectiles directed at those who anger them. Maybe a few unprovoked attacks of the innocent pedestrian 'observers' who come to gawk at the protesters. Something. I want action.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:19 | 1825113 malikai
malikai's picture

You want action? Take it. They are not there to entertain you.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:23 | 1825130 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

Oh I do. Do not assume I am actionless. Check this video. I do this every day.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgkSiyIUz_w

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 19:56 | 1825310 Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

Nice, death by 1,000,000 tiny purple nurples.

I always wanted to run into a big bank building and have everyone flush all the toilets at once. Synchronized watches and everything, where eagles dare style.

 

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 02:04 | 1825833 Bruin4
Bruin4's picture

Really? everyday...I am not sure I can take that video seriously but I suppose if everyone in this country did it for just one month it might work...until they caught on and had the postal police at your door with some trumped up charges of mail fraud or something like that, but come to think of it when I was younger I used to mail everything., and I mean everything...bricks included.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 04:29 | 1825913 malikai
malikai's picture

I saw that earlier. I think that's awesome. I'd like to suggest adding midget porn in the letters if available.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 12:46 | 2399426 haibop
haibop's picture

pretty nice video want you

Tue, 05/01/2012 - 19:54 | 2389701 haibop
haibop's picture

seriously... Inteligator

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:43 | 1825022 stopcpdotcom
stopcpdotcom's picture

Short back and sides or crew cut?

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:57 | 1825056 knukles
knukles's picture

Oh and there'll be no charge.  It's default free all week here at Eu's Clip Joint

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 19:58 | 1825314 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey, k-nuk!

i think this was "anon-y-mouse" b/c this kinda speech might get one hauled off at this point for the euro-crime of "eroding confidence"

 

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:47 | 1825024 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

suggesting that both are rescuable if the ECB acts aggressively

I like the word "rescuable". What's its opposite? Unrescuable? Irrescuable? Arescuable? Disrescuable? Non-rescuable?

I am going to apply as a PR manager with ECB, and and want to provide some examples of virtual press releases in my letter of application.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:25 | 1825128 gojam
gojam's picture

Opposite of rescuable is 'Doomed'

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:43 | 1825179 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

irascible.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 19:43 | 2108209 taxi952
taxi952's picture

free cooking games

I think that irascible describes this situation the best

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:48 | 1825029 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Did anybody else notice a negative tone in this article or is it just me?

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:52 | 1825039 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

It's just you. Everything is fine.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:32 | 1825156 Popo
Popo's picture

Did anyone else notice a bizarre inability to communicate?

For example:

Portugal asked Mexico on Saturday to tell fellow G20 members next week that the United States should offer "financial help" to resolve the euro zone sovereign debt crisis.

So...wait.  Portugal asked Mexico to tell the G20 for them?  Is the beurocracy really that fucked up?

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:45 | 1825185 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"feelers." they "didn't want anyone to find out." shhh. don't worry Portugal..."your secret is safe with us."

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 19:15 | 1825237 prophet
prophet's picture

Italy is the only PIIGS that is a G-20 member. 

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:54 | 1825049 knukles
knukles's picture

Negative?  There's nothing fucking negative in the EU. Why would anybody start negative rumors about the EU? 

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 14:44 | 1826502 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Anytime a City of London TBTF mouthpiece whore like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is moving his lips...

He is probably talking his master's book...

City of London Banksters must be positioned to payoff on EU turmoil...

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:59 | 1825065 knukles
knukles's picture

It's all in your mind.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:51 | 1825036 knukles
knukles's picture

Portugal asked Mexico to tell the US that Spain and Italy were picking on her saying that they were dumber than Greece and Andorra combined even though nobody's said shit about Andorra for weeks when in fact she'd been in France for the G-willickers meetings all the time and not told Germany, said Britain.
(walks off in a huff)
America starts yelling behind her back that if she wants something to talk to her directly and stop this caddy two faced nattering.
(Portugal breaks down in tears)

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 19:13 | 1825232 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

I swear this is the plot from the "Barber of Seville"

Don't know it ....

Here

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Jv3lL6imzU

 

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 14:50 | 1826518 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Because There is NO Plan B

Wanker Timmay will be dispatched by Wall Street Teleprompter-Puppet-in-Chief Obama Bin Lyin' to tell the EU their answer is Big Time QE, "Leverage that shit up bitchez," and save the banksters at all costs..

Timmay-'n-TOTUS Plan A...

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:54 | 1825044 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Is a 100 percent loss on bonds a "credit event"?  Is there any way of knowing?  Cue Twilight zone music.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:58 | 1825061 knukles
knukles's picture

That depends on if you count them all or not.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 22:34 | 2252815 haibop
Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:06 | 1825082 XitSam
XitSam's picture

Not if it is "voluntary".

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:57 | 1825057 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Europe is melting down and wants to drag the US down with them. We can't, of course, but Geithner will likely try.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 17:58 | 1825063 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

While everyone is looking at Portugal, the illusionist are crafting plans to fund collective motives in negative arrears (EU bailout)

Taken from a liberal media outlet..

Obama Sends 100 US Troops to Uganda to Help Combat Lord’s Resistance Army - October 14, 2011

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/10/obama-sends-100-us-troops-to-uganda-to-combat-lords-resistance-army/

 

Statement by the IMF Mission at the Conclusion of a Visit to Uganda - October 28, 2011

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2011/pr11384.htm 

New membership tranches have been successfully secured. Begin Code 4 protocol-- media transmission to immediately commence by cornering new revenue stream fees. Negative press and graphic images to illustrate humanitarian violations per United Nations photo gallery.

 

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 02:14 | 1825841 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

who least deserved the nobel peace prize: kissinger, begin or obama?  you decide.  willing to entertain alternatives.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 16:10 | 1826687 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Arafat.  Hands down.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:03 | 1825078 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Portugal had recently offered to give independent well-off immigrants to Portugal, 10 years tax-free on income sourced outside of Portugal.

It is a very nice country, with friendly people.

And the 'fortified' Port or Porto wine from Portugal, is very tasty and good for your health. Plus being about 50% stronger than regular wine (wine with a little brandy, often quite sweet), a couple glasses of Porto will send you to bed in a nice mood.

But, For What It's Worth FWIW, a Portuguese businessman recently told me ... "We're just all waiting for Portugal to go bankrupt. But we're waiting for the right moment."

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:34 | 1825160 falak pema
falak pema's picture

portugal should be loaned to Brazil for twenty years; problem solved. And the portuguese are really nice people.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:51 | 1825198 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

and an American bank robber was recently "discovered" there even though he'd been there for more than a decade. that would be catastrophic for the EU if Portugal became a tax haven. it would be a "very big one"...easily the biggest in the world. if they added "bank protections"...that would make them "Switzerland on the Sea."

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 21:48 | 1825489 trav7777
trav7777's picture

maybe they will become a gold haven in case of confiscation, for the few of us whose gold did not fall out of the canoe

Sat, 11/19/2011 - 14:28 | 1894289 haibop
haibop's picture

this is really impressive... walk in freezer

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 20:20 | 1825357 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Got the feeling that the whole world is going to be a lot nicer once the governments act on behalf of the people.  It's the unknown amount of down time that has me alerted.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:06 | 1825081 knukles
knukles's picture

Hey just wait a fucking minute. 
We haven't even gotten done with Greece yet and now you're talking about Portugal raising their hands for the Greek Screw-Your-Buddy Deal when Cypress has already called first dibs?  God, you ungrateful fuckers keep this up and everybody's gonna want sombody else to take a lick on their hairy end of the lollipop before it's all over. 

Should be good for 100 points on the ES and a free App.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:14 | 1825096 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

The web of deception is so ill-crafted, you'll never know which hairy end of the lollipop you licked. LOL

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 14:56 | 1826532 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

So wait... Now it's:

C-PIIGS? Or PICIGS? PIS-GIC? SPIGIC?

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:30 | 1825149 Mark123
Mark123's picture

So when can I buy that cheap place in Portugal and live like a king? 

 

I like their wine.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:38 | 1825168 eurogold
eurogold's picture

Pretty soon.....I am also thinking about a nice penthouse in Lissabon...soon to be had dirt cheap!

And nice weather!

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:30 | 1825150 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Let's run an experiment.  If we started feeding all the stray cats we could find, watcha think might happen????

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:41 | 1825171 falak pema
falak pema's picture

If all the Oligarchs relinquished 30% of their personal fortunes. Eu problems would be over. I'm talking about 10 000 people...

They could do that to save the ouzo, the chianti, the porto, the guinness and the rioja-sherry!

If they don't relinquish EU should invade Caymans and requisition the banks. after having disconnected it from the world.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 18:52 | 1825201 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

It's time to do a global writedown and be done with it.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 10:08 | 1826095 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

There's more to be had if they invade Tel Aviv.  Problem is defence is stronger too.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 15:00 | 1826544 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Bankster Plan A

Or the Oligarchs could completely privatize Greece into 10,000 pieces and islands with 1130 slaves each...

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 19:18 | 1825241 catch edge ghost
catch edge ghost's picture

The outcomes of these sovereign debt deals, both past and future, only make sense from one perspective. You have to forget all about the poor peasants and focus on the collateral (or is it derivative) damage.  If only you could see 99.9% higher up the food chain you would discover who is the barber and who is sitting in the chair. Got scope?

The entertaining, indeed enlightening, part of all this will be digesting the spin that explains away the obviously corrupt process governing who ultimately gets the Mullet.

Therein lies the transparancy that allows freedom to the modern investor.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 19:19 | 1825243 prophet
prophet's picture

The G-20 will be "forced" to take some SHOCKing and AWEful actions as all these imbalances are unwound.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 19:29 | 1825260 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Let's not forget what kind of debt is being written down, or 'haircutted". It is unearned money used to fund insupportable social benefits schemes when the governments in question didn't have enough revenues to balance their books. Most European debt is because the politician gave everybody what they wanted all the time - especially the immigrants. So in order to stop accumulating debt, the social order that was being supported by the debt will have to be eliminated. The problem with that is that the entitled way of life is so ingrained in Europe, and so many of society's fringe-dwellers are so totally dependent on government handouts, that to withdraw them would create a continent-wide violent revolution. Unless so-called 'austerity' is accompanied by the largest relocation/repatriation program in the history of the world, literally sending home every immigrant who has come to Europe in the past 30 years, there is simply no hope of saving Europe - none at all. The wogs have simply done you in, old chaps.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 21:48 | 1825492 Rynak
Rynak's picture

In a word:

NO.

 

Now go crawl back into the bankster ass you came from.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 10:28 | 1826109 reload
reload's picture

Many think that was the plan all along - create a huge dependant class whose very existance prevents meaningful political change  - because the threat of unrest is very real, the productive tax paying classes can meanwhile be looted at leisure.

The UK immigration figures are interesting in that a look beyond net immigration shows a lot of anglo saxon, productive tax payers have been saying `enough` for a decade now and jumping ship. Many older folks have gone to retirement and leisure ghettos in Marbella etc, but a lot of the young and energetic have gone to South America, the Antipodes and Asia.

I am explaining to my teenage children that they need to learn a transportable skill (medicine, engineering, agriculture) and make sure they work and travel before deciding where to live. All my grandparents left England in their very early 20`s to go out into the world and earn a living not returning to live here again until in full retirement. It is likely that a lot of todays youth will need to be as flexible and adventurous.  

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 19:39 | 1825278 Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

For precisely the reasons stated in this article, there will be other shoes ready to drop. Debt is same old poison, in any country. What we are seeing is intoxication becoming debilitating addiction.

http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/10/13/fiat-addiction-update-1...

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 15:05 | 1826557 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

A Shoe To Drop?

Europe must have twelve feet...

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 19:54 | 1825305 gwar5
gwar5's picture

European Elites: "We're all economic Quantum Tunnelers now.  Keyenesianism is tinker toys."

 

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 23:45 | 2164736 haibop
haibop's picture

make sense... french door refrigerator

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 19:58 | 1825315 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Whose banks did we bail out in Europe last time and why not now?  Hard to see the twinzini tots, Benke and Timit not coughing up whatever the people thatown them want. They have always known the money doesn't exist,  but they get to have more of it, and that may be all that matters to them.  BoA with 75T in derivatives have already died but no one can bury it because it will crash the network of lies,  just like it will when any one of them goes.  Look at the idiocy the other nations have to point to as a rallying cry.  We wear scapegoat like a glove. 

These aparatchik's are going to kill us by starting a war after having pissed off every other nation on earth for crashing them.  Don't we have any independent law enforcement in DC that has the obligation to act in cases of high treason, sedition, aiding foreigners to destroy the nation,  and other such primitive white collar crimes?  These kinds of crimes have to be stopped due to their destructive power, but we get nothing.

Tim Leary would think he was on a bad trip.

 

 

 

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 20:29 | 1825376 polizeros
polizeros's picture

Portugal et al needs to go Iceland against the banksters. Call their bluff. Default. Nationalize the banks. And arrest the CEOs.

 

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 21:08 | 1825436 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Freaking Major Bullish!

LSAP away!

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 02:37 | 1825857 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

This is slowly becoming a very sick joke.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 09:40 | 1826072 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Portugal, knowing the CONSIDERABLE influence Mexico exerts on American Policy - was wise to ask the Mexicans to ask us.

 

All kidding aside I think the USA is more kindly disposed towards the Portugese - they should have asked directly and discreetly.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 10:09 | 1826090 reload
reload's picture

The Portugueese Finance minister was on BBC Newsnight a few weeks ago. He made it pretty clear that `for now we remain committed to servicing our debts as per the schedule agreed with our creditors`. When asked if that would remain the case should Greece be offered some debt relief, he smiled broadly and when pressed admitted that such an event would be a `game changer`.

Perhaps markets will realise that 1+1 is not 17 after all - and sell off next week. How long can reallity be kept at bay. It would be more than epic if the major indicies which shook out a lot of shorts (self included) with their vertical climb through the 200dma did a spactacular reversal - right about now!

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 13:39 | 1826417 Parth
Parth's picture

The check is in the mail.

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