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Post QE2, Corporate Earnings Outlook Changes On A Decidedly Negative Path

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As opposed to what many talking Pollyannas have been broadcasting for the last month or two, companies are progressively downplaying their earnings outlooks. It would appear that along with every 401(k) holder, TBTF CEO, and CNBC anchor, even CEO/CFOs are now hoping for more QE.

If earnings are 'the mother's milk of stock returns', then management are increasingly reducing that flow of milk as day after day they guide below (lemming-like sell-side) analyst consensus estimates.

The index is based on the changes that management make to their outlooks judged against sell-side consensus expectations - the significant drop in the index indicates a (still too high) sell-side consensus that remains in a rosy world of its own relative to management expectations.

105 of the S&P500 names (that Bloomberg explicitly tracks) have provided outlook changes during Q3/2011 with 43 down, and only 10 up.

The bottom line is clear - 'cheap' valuation chatter based on P/E multiples may just have to rein itself in a little given an increasingly anxious corporatocracy and a still Birinyi-ruler-driven sell-side analyst crowd.

 

 

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Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:02 | 1621652 Caviar Emptor
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Guess some things are 'cheap' for a reason. You get what you pay for. 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 07:08 | 1622098 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Price stabilization = completely fucking over the middle class by keeping prices high while wages decrease or remain stagnant. You gotta love the goals of the Fed. /sarcasm. If they do decide to go with QE3, I hope there is a reaction from the sheeple (a large movement to end the Fed would be nice). 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 07:24 | 1622111 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Some laid off workers have cashed out retirement accounts so they benefited a little from the artificial levitation. Those who are still employed are getting hosed though. [/silver lining?]

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 07:48 | 1622146 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

If they withdrew before 59 1/2 they're going to get hit with an additional 10% penalty. They will have to pay taxes for cashing out their over-valued equities.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 08:08 | 1622176 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

true dat but it beats the hell out of trying to cash out in a 1931 environment.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:05 | 1621659 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Whoops.  Did I forget to mention we are screwed.  For more we go to Trisha Taka-now-we-are-screwed.

All kidding aside.  When you read this tomorrow (that is thursday morning) you are only going to feel smarter.  That is to say... "I told all you mother fuckers to shut the fuck up and listen!"  of course... it's better if you say it in the voice of Samuel L. Jackson in Pulp Fiction mode but I think you get the gist...bitcheezzz

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:18 | 1621663 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

 

Little reality check: From Ivy League to Welfare

"Generation Limbo"..or perhaps rationalizing a failed system: Clippings from today's NYT article:

 

About 14 percent of those who graduated from college between 2006 and 2010 are looking for full-time jobs, either because they are unemployed or have only part-time jobs, according to a survey of 571 recent college graduates released in May by the Heldrich Center at Rutgers

 Ms. Kelly said her classmates seemed resigned to waiting for the economic tides to turn. “Plenty of people work in bookstores and work in low-end administrative jobs, even though they have a Harvard degree,” she said. 

Some of Ms. Morales’s classmates have found themselves on welfare. “You don’t expect someone who just spent four years in Ivy League schools to be on food stamps,” said Ms. Morales, who estimates that a half-dozen of her friends are on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. A few are even helping younger graduates figure out how to apply. “We are passing on these traditions on how to work in the adult world as working poor,” Ms. Morales said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/01/fashion/recent-college-graduates-wait-...

 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 07:11 | 1622100 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

I had shitty jobs when I first graduated college after the tech bubble burst, it seems to be part of growing up nowadays.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:40 | 1622942 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Amy Klein, who graduated from Harvard in 2007 with a degree in English literature, couldn’t find a job in publishing

Really? This shining light spent upwards of $200K (probably more) to get a degree for which there is no job market. I could maybe understand the logic if she wanted to be an author, but an editor or copy editor for a publisher? You've got to be kidding. And publishing is a dying industry. Fewer people read books these days means publishers will be laying people off, not hiring. Enjoy that lifetime of paying off those student loans while working as a barista, Amy.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:14 | 1621670 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I cannot tell you guys how SICK and TIRED I am of these assclown bankers over at the BlowHorn [CNBC], all lying in perfect unanimity each and every f'n day.  These sicko salesmen are still so short sighted that they fail to consider that repeating the same lies over and over again DESTROYS CREDIBILITY.  This, in turn, destroys market integrity.  And this, in turn, repels CAPITAL FORMATION.

So the next time you see one of these sniveling idiots begging for QE3, remember that it is these very same fellows that keep driving capital OUT of the market.

Until such time as these clowns are fired, and the BlowHorn finally loses its license to broadcast financial "news," welcome to your Greater American Depression.  Brought to you by American bankers everywhere.

Good grief!  [and by that I mean...when is this banker owned financial "news" network experiment finally just going to be scrapped?]

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:15 | 1621687 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I can't tolerate that shit.

I turned it off 4 years ago and never looked back.

CNBS = Mouthpiece of Federal Reserve/U.S. Government, ala Green Shoots & Recovery Summers (CONfidence Game Ponzi).

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:38 | 1621727 Cdad
Cdad's picture

It really is amazing, brother Truth.  You can be watching a company report a horrible miss, and the clowns come on and simply treat it as a situation that needs the proverbial lipstick.  These guys seem to believe that everyone within their broadcast range is a complete chump.

You take a guy like David Darst [Morgan Stanley].  He is a proverbial favorite on the Closing Bell...leading up to that bell, in fact.  He seems to think that blurting out nine ticker symbols in his one minute appearance, and punctuating their announcement with the words "global growth" is a fucking investment strategy.  It doesn't matter if the stocks are up, down, firing half their employees, currently situated next to a melting down nuclear power plant, sliding off some hill in CA...doesn't matter.  Nine tickers, "global growth."  Buy.

And they all operate this way.  

I am perpetually stunned that COMCAST [with far less in resources than GE] has done nothing to restore the network's cred.  It is simply staggering.

 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 01:03 | 1621768 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

CNBS's viewership base is so small that I have to believe that it's literally a Tokyo Rose style proxy mouthpiece of the federal government and central bank, so that Comcast (and formerly GE) views it as a valuable asset in terms of being able to do favors for whatever administration is in power at any given time.

For those who may think this is unfounded or conspiratorial 'talk,' consider than Jeff Immelt was just the latest ex-GE official to join a POTUS's Administration, and also consider that a private dinner was just held on Martha's Vineyard for Obama at the "cottage" of Comcast's CEO, Brian L. Roberts.

 

Comcast CEO Brian Roberts hosts President Obama on Martha's Vineyard

 

MSNBC's Parent Comcast CEO Obama's Biggest Donor
Thu, 09/01/2011 - 02:11 | 1621864 nyse
nyse's picture

You are smart. /serious

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 08:01 | 1622160 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

That says it all!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:44 | 1621734 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Fortunately I got so badly beaten up in the tech wreak in 2000, I got out of the markets and have been putting all

my savings into PMs for the past 11 years. I did so only to preserve my savings. I figured PMs would always have

some value. Now that I look back on it, 2000 was a blessing for me because it made me aware of the scam that

the stock market really was. It also made me aware of what was really important in life. When I told my wife

that I had lost 2/3 of our savings/retirement, I expected her to be furious. But she calmly said that money was

not that important and that we still had each other. I am now wealthy and retired and my main goal in life is to

bring joy to this wonderful lady that I am so lucky to share my life with.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:49 | 1621740 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

Awesome.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 04:21 | 1621982 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

This is something to hope for. That is, to have a decent mate, and to avoid getting bent over by the money lenders and money changers. I got a few bucks in the market, some high yielders, but a significant portion has now been moved into assets, including PM. Continue to build my position.

Will consider buying a house, for cash, in the future, but not at these still-bubble prices. Much further to fall, esp. when these goddamn boomers realize no one is paying them $800k for three small bedrooms on a postage-stamp lot.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 04:44 | 1621999 Ahwooga
Ahwooga's picture

There must have been something particularly obnoxious about the news/presentation/price action etc yesterday because I really lost my rag and almost hurled my laptop through the television. Glad to know I wasnt the only one who had a worse then normal day with frustration at the MSM reporting of the "news." Ta.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:13 | 1621673 Timmay
Timmay's picture

No Bernanke no cry.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:15 | 1621682 sasebo
sasebo's picture

Oh shit. Poor CEO's, etc. All the people they've layed off & have run out of unemployment benefits can't buy their shit anymore.

Too fuckung bad. Stupid assholes forgot that the people they layed off are also consumers. They might need to read some Austrian economics. 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:20 | 1621694 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

They don't care. They don't have to. All of those trillions of corporate welfare dollars went to making beautiful golden parachutes, as well as padding CEO pay (rose drastically over the last 2 years)

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 07:20 | 1622103 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Their plan was to have their workforce in China pick up where the American consumer left off. It doesn't appear to be working too well. Don't worry that prick Bernanke can stabilize prices for them and further gut the American consumer.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:15 | 1621685 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Def. Noting guidance down and misses.

Would really love to see some momos like Nflx and cmg vome back to earth.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:22 | 1621696 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

NFLX won't exist in two years.

There's little barrier to entry in their business, and they have no proprietary model nor IP.

By the time 10 companies or more are offering streaming content, NFLX will just be another marginal player, if they have adapted well enough to still exist.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:20 | 1621693 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Now who didn't see this coming? Eventually, all the negative data pouring in was going to affect S&P earnings expectations.

The question is; How will this affect the stock market tomorrow? Will the MSM be able to somehow put a positive spin on

this? Has the market been climbing because this downturn in expectations is likely to cause the Fed to ease sooner than latter?

Who knows what is driving the equity nowadays? It certainly isn't fundamentals anymore.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:23 | 1621700 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Who knows what is driving the equity nowadays?

Your tax dollars (and your future tax dollars) funneled to WS through the Fed. 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:31 | 1621713 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

So much for the stock market being forward looking.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:51 | 1621742 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

The hits just keep on coming.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 01:02 | 1621767 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The parameter is earnings and the number popular is $95 for 2011.

If that isn't coming, P/E has to go over 13 to justify present levels.  Where is the boom boom engine to justify valuations north of 13?

Government has shot all its bullets and Brent is $115.  Where is the boom supposed to come from with $115 oil?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 02:19 | 1621874 seoerlin
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Thu, 09/01/2011 - 02:51 | 1621926 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

SPAM as in corporate accounting practices

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 08:02 | 1622163 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

seoerlin, you're the most annoying dude I've ever seen, brah.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 09:25 | 1622356 sqz
sqz's picture

Please can everyone report this "seoerlin" at abuse@zerohedge.com so we can get him and his IP banned.

He has posted marketing spam on *every* single thread I've read today. I doubt it is possible to automate posting on ZeroHedge (let alone getting an account on here), so this must be a real no-life dweeb who does this for a "living". Except the muppet has targetted pretty much the worse ever audience for marketing anything ...

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 07:31 | 1622128 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Maybe they're all following the Apple model: lower guidance and expectations and then beat on those lower expectations. People have very short term memories and they really are impressed when people exceed expectations.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 07:50 | 1622150 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Pre-QE, that is how they got the stock market to recover some losses. I remember hearing about the earning expectation being in the gutter, then when they beat expectations CNBS would go crazy and act like it the best quarter they have ever had.

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