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Post Summit Rally Fatigue?
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
Post Summit Rally Fatigue?
The deal seems a disappointment on almost every level and still needs approvals - UK out. Finland expressing concerns.
The ECB has confirmed what they said yesterday. This agreement does not turn on the printing press (any more than it is already doing)
Rating agencies likely to be underwhelmed. Countries will still be on watch and might still be downgraded.
The budget rules seem unlikely to be met anytime soon.
Unleveraged ESM is smaller than leveraged EFSF though ESM may actually be created.
Central banks have found money to lend to the IMF so it can lend back to them - more form over substance and some debt burden shifting.
Everyone seems in a rush to get ahead of the Christmas rally but that seems to require ignoring what actually happened in Europe this week.
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The answer is to have a summit on when to have the next summit......all good as $550 a plate
I ain't fatigued.
I've got my weapon and my pork and beans right by my side.
Plus my tool is quite long.
I'm a happy camper.
Fuck 'em all.
Merry Christmas, my brothers.
And FLB.
http://fucklloydblankfein.blogspot.com
Central banks were selling gold earlier... so it was for this IMF package then...
Yup.
'The deal seems a disappointment on almost every level and still needs approvals - UK out.'
Well of course Pete, whaddya expect? Can't have UK banks regulated by the new German-lead EZ.
The Queen would not be amused her ancestors are back in her business.
Sachsen Coburg Gotha
LOL
Gimme a "D"! Gimme a "fault"! DEFAULT, DEFAULT, DEFAULT!!!
Dec 16th ceiling limit gets hit. Doesn't matter because they will print.
This whole situation is absurd...only thing that would make it complete is aliens and unicorns showing up now.
Nothing absurd about it CPL, we're back to where we were before the credit expansion made friends among Brits/Germans, German/French, Greek/Albanian etc etc.
See here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-07/franco-british-alarm-of-1989-co...
So we have an amorphous partial agreement that has been sketched out on the back of a napkin at the 25th hour that will "save the Euro".
Where have I seen this movie before?
PT : you really like to beat the drum till you turn the world deaf don't you? Give it a break. Your crusade is spot on, to take the eyes off the US's own dire state, don't over do it. There is such a thing as "over kill".
Remember the action of breakup british pound in 1992, when Soros won a 1 billion dollars.
UK were put on the corner at that time
Now,UK and Bundesbank return to center of the table
See what happened at that time between UK and Bundesbank, market and SOROS..
http://pracompraroupravender.blogspot.com/2011/12/1992-erm-x-reino-unido-e-2011-reino.html
off topic but best medicine available ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdQnuqFlD7U&feature=player_embedded ... rofl
ANNNDDDDD....EL PRINTO IT ISSSSSSS!
TIME TO CALL IT QUITS...EUROPE PROJECT WILL FAIL, COUNTRIES WILL BE KICKED OUT, INSOLVENT COUNTRIES WILL DEFAULT AND DEBT SPIRAL AND CONTAGION WILL SCALATE FURTHER DRAGGING THE US AND ASIA ALONG WITH IT. TIME TO WITHDRAW MONEY FROM YOUR BANK, BROKERAGE FIRM, AND STORE IT AT HOME. STOCK UP WATER, FOOD IN THE GARAGE AND BUY A VAULT FOR HOME AND BUY GOLD AND STORE IT AT HOME....GOLD WILL ONLY SURVIVE THE CHAOS THAT WILL FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS...GOOD LUCK EVERYONE.
Good luck to you to, Ted, and to everybody. Have a Merry Christmas. I'll see you on the other side.
You know, if Europe, the 2nd cradle of Christianity, weren't now a bunch of human-worshiping atheist secularists, I'd say that this holiday season might be sufficient to strengthen their resolve for the tough times ahead.
As it is I'll just say a prayer for 'em in front of our nativity scene, turn on the Tree and some Bing Crosby and enjoy my God-fearing family.
Peace.
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha....
classic.
Nothing happens until something happens.
They left the summit a confused indecisive mess.....which leave the markets ripe for rumors that benefit the bulls given how well the market has been holding up.
Until another bond sale tanks or the UK says fuck the euro we're out of this shit, then just plan on the saucer eyed dummies will keep buying.
You know....that whole "blue Skies, all around meeeeeeeeee....." syndrome
...........until they get poled in the head and wake up with their pants around their ankles holding a bag.
tank after/because of summit = too predictable. Mr. market likes to skull fuck people who take the predictable path.
ECB President Mario Draghi announced that the bank will make three-year loans to euro zone banks for the first time without penalty interest rates, and with looser collateral rules.
"What the ECB did is intelligent and a good move," Tim Skeet, Managing Director, RBS Global Banking & Markets, told CNBC.
"The banks have had an awful year-end in terms of raising liquidity and we have the ECB recognizing this."
**************
So we have...
1) Banks have had an AWFUL year of raising "liquiditing' ie.... m-o-n-e-y
2) So the ECB will just GIVE them infinity money for a minimum of 3 years, and reduce collateral rules.
3) This is INTELLIGENT and a GOOD move.
Somehow, I dont think A + B = C....
Seems like backdoor QE, so where's the "risk on" ?
But, ultimately, isn't a deal which focuses on structural reform better than one which relies on printing? Never mind whether they actually manage to agree on & actually implement real structural reform, but from an Austrian point of view isn;t that at least better than just blindly going for the sugar-rush of QE? I know the markets are disappointed and they want that sugar high, but in the long term the idea that the ECB is resisting should be Euro positive...no?
Guess we are going to see the Italian bonds at 10% before they go "uhhh on second thought"
This is looking like a pickup sandlot game. One kid gets mad because he doesn't like the rules, takes his bat and ball, and goes home. Another doesn't want to give up the change in his pocket to buy soda pop. Others leave because they were ruled out. the game ends for lack of players.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
How can there be a rally when even the IMF predicts horrible GDP growth??? But look at Greece. That is what the IMF thinks is the big GDP gainer. Tourism?
Europe Moves Ahead With Fiscal Union, UK Declines – Europe Buys More Time With Bailout And Vague Promises Of Budget Cuts – Mission Impossible!http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
No longer are bailouts the snooze button for central planners, as summits and summits to schedule the next summit have become the preferred method of delaying the inevitable.
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