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PPI Prints Below Expectations, As Expected
2 minutes before the PPI number, expected at a 0.0% print, came out, we said:
When PPI comes below expectations does that mean Dimon's plan for quick QE release is on?
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 11, 2012
Sure enough:
- PPI: -0.2%, a decline, and a miss of expectations of 0.0%, Y/Y +1.9%, Exp. 2.1%, first drop in 4 months.
- Core PPI: 0.2%, in line.
- April PPI “should allay fears of producer costs being passed through to customers downstream,” says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
- Supports Fed’s assessment of transitory inflation increase on rising oil, commodity costs at end 2011
- Intermediate costs decline points to reduced pressure on profit margins: Brusuelas
- Core intermediate PPI, “closely” watched by Fed, increase "benign," notes Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
- Full release for those who care here.
In other words, a perfect environemnt for more easing. So: when does Jamie order the Code Red?
A quick summary from GS:
MAIN POINTS:
- The April Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.2% (month-over-month), in contrast to consensus expectations for an unchanged reading. The weakness reflected a 1.4% drop in energy prices; both gasoline and natural gas prices fell during the month. Food prices rose by 0.2%.
- The core PPI increased by 0.2% (month-over-month), in line with consensus expectations. The core PPI is up 2.7% on a year-over-year basis. Inflation in vehicle prices decelerated during the month, as expected. However, this was offset by slightly higher inflation for medical prescriptions, apparel and computers. Prices for unfinished products showed slower increases or outright declines. The intermediate PPI fell by 0.5%, and the core intermediate PPI increased by 0.2%, down from a gain of 0.6% in March. The crude PPI fell by 4.4%, and the crude core PPI declined 1.8%.
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Predicted by Ben Shalom Bernanke you mean! "now come in Tokyo!" student of history? PhD indeed...
Don't break out the champagne too soon, Benny Boy. We're about to enter a new deflationary phase in the biflationary cycle. Just more evidence of a broken system.
More money printing on the way, bitchez!
The fact that we have low inflation and high unemployment PROVES that Bernanke's montetary policy is simply too weak. Federal Reserve officials need to step it up, pure and simlpe. Why is this so difficult for libertarians to accept?
You and all of the other trolls are just the Tylers innoculating the hive from idiocy.
Libertarians stacking gold are precisely accepting, and expecting this outcome.
Oh it oughta be good for at least a hummer....
You forgot to allow for the next "adjustment"
Is it Code Red or Code Blue?
CNBC is promoting Cramer coming up next to talk about J.P. Morgan Chase. I'm wondering if he will do a Bear Stearns and say J.P. Morgan is safe keep your money in there?
LMFAO...
There's the word again..."transitory".
What a bunch of pretentious assholes!
They will be learning what the word "transitory" means when the people start to riot like 1789 France...
What incredible liars they are!!!!!!!!
If prices aren't being passed on to consumers why is milk 30% more expensive than a couple of years ago?
If companies passed savings on to consumers they would give me a 10% discount for using those damn "self-checkout" robots.
The FED is focused like a laser beam on banks and equities, and any amount of inflation will always be "benign" for us plebians.
Rightly spoken.
The net result of central bank "Rescue" of the economy since 08-09 has been to maintain prevailing costs high (aka "Reflation policy") without supporting the real economy (aka "demand"). And that has led to biflation. Money printing has led to abrogation of healthy supply/demand relationships: and we now have high prices with dropping demand
Yeah, sure..."tell it to the labor market" you moron. Greenspun KILLED us ALL! "now it's a government problem" because "we're not paying for that Obama!" government programs? Friggin Uncle Tom's cabin? BULLSHIT! Your only program is BORROW MORE to SPECULATE MORE? "Here...let me help you out on that" phucker...
Canned beans up 300%...
Snickers bars up 220%...
Food, in general up 200%...
...and yet...
House prices down 30%...
Clothing down 70%...
Private employee wages down (or at least 'sticky')...
and so on....
Biflation, as the man sayeth.
Milk is a weird case. Just last year I was buying a gallon for $1.88, which is obviously well below cost. Because consumers are so attentive to its price, it often ends up in the role of loss leader and the subject of instance price wars between the grocery stores, walmart/target and big box retailers like costco.
Milk prices are regulated. Every month the retailers are told the maximum they can charge for milk. The Walmarts can charge much lowers since they just want to get you in the store so you can buy an extra large nylon sweatsuit made by a 13 year old Vietnamese girl chained to a sewing machine. Supermarkets have slim profit margins and usually charge the maximum.
Another not so free market
http://www.kleinpeterdairy.com/priceofmilk.html
You aren't supposed to notice food inflation, it's Politically Incorrect to talk about.
Or, you could just be a RASSISS!! (Praise the Messiah Obama!)
No we know why they needed to pump the market so high.......so fkn morons can come clean. Then Darth Vader can come in at the precious DOW 10K moment and save the day again.
Aren't there any spaceships leaving for more sane planets? This entire planet is one huge pile of SHIT.
According to my Sub-Ether-Senso-Matic the only thing in the neighbourhood is a fleet of Vogon ships. Wonder what they want?
I may have my head in the sand - but I think QE is off the table for the moment. Fed needs commodity prices down, both to justify future QE and to keep Obama in office so Ben keeps his job. S&P 1400 won't keep Obama in office - but high food and fuel prices will give Mittens the win.
Don't forget there are 46 million on food stamps. What do they care about the price of food? Or gas for that matter? There's 48 million votes for starters.
Like in mariage... expectations are overrated...
I got a pizza the other night. It's been a while since the last one. It costed more, size has shrunk (when did medium become the old small???), and the toppings seem to be sparsely spread. Pizza isn't the perfect inflation guage but I see it as real indicator of inflation.
The day-to-day living costs has increased significantly over the past 7 years or so. The benchmarks are set up to minimize disclosure of real inflation, kinda like having a thermometer that only goes to 80F. When it's hotter, it's only 80F according to the thermometer.
Wow the entire decline was due to oil dropping a whopping $10 per barrel.
Did this number also include the $1 rise in Nat Gas over the past week?
Food prices are still going up, same with everything else. Gasoline is down about $.10. PRAISE GOD I CAN SAVE $1.20 ON A FILL UP!!!!
I'm going to go buy a new house with all the money I saved. THANKS BERFUCKANKE!!!!
Yeesh, if you can whine about the current rates on natural gas (which hit 10 year lows last month before bouncing back), you really can whine about anything. Stop blaming others for your financial problems and grow up.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/05/cash-cow-liquidity-comparison-wheres.html
Lemme fix that for you:
"April PPI should allay producers' hopes that downstream customers, having been thrown from their jobs, and out of their homes, will have the money to buy much of anything."
When the (gone Galt) "JOB CREATERS" actually start, you know, creating fucking JOBS again, this situation should improve.