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The PPT Must Have Thought We Had Moved To Daylight Savings
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
The PPT Must Have Thought We Had Moved To Daylight Savings
Time and left at 3pm after trying to ramp it up then. Weird day. The morning drop seemed overdone based on "fears" of a German vote against the ECB/Bank bailout using Greece as a conduit for the money. The vote was strongly in favor which made markets happy, though someday maybe someone will present an argument other than "give them money or plunge the world into chaos".
The lack of news out of the IMF wasn't good, but it keeps the ability to create rumors of new money alive and well, which is probably far more useful on a day to day basis in this market.
Pending home sales sparked some excitement too. Though we will see how many close, and more importantly, how much of a role the great weather played.
Greece is moving inexorably towards a CDS Credit Event. ISDA has been asked to opine on if one has already occurred. I understand the argument, but don't think it will be enough to trigger CDS. The PSI process still seems to be run by a bunch of amateurs. Since no one expects anything more from them, it doesn't spook the market. The ECB's holdings of March 20th bonds seems rather larger (same for the May issue). That may become an issue for those looking to holdout.
The Spanish Budget Minister Montoro literally laughed when asked about the ability to bring the 8.51% budget down to the EU's 4.4% target. I guess with LTRO2 coming, budget deficits aren't a big deal.
And finally, the market seems completely driven by Apple. At any moment in time, if you know where APPL is trading, you can get the S&P and Nasdaq pretty accurately. It has replaced the EUR as the thing to watch intraday, or so it seems.
My favorite bonds (or at least series of bonds) were the Italian ponzi bonds issued by the likes of Unicredit on the day of the last LTRO. Clearly they already know what they plan to do on Wednesday, as do other banks. I expect more accurate rumors to start coming out tomorrow. I lean towards a relatively small take-up, which will disappoint the backdoor QE crowd at first, but will try and bounce on the spin that all is good and banks don't need money.
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This means stocks will go up...right?
Using the new sunrise indicator, sun rises = market goes up...(and volume goes down)
Warren Buffett came out of his bathtub and saw his shadow. That means we have 6 more weeks of rally left.
It means that stocks will drop in the morning and then rise. To keep us guessing, they will not tell us in advance whether they are going to rise steadily or do a ramp 'n' camp, but they will rise.
Buffett is annoying, ain't he?
Awww shucks... Buffett, his new face is almost as smooth as Becky's new face. He needs to work on his "on que" lip bite, Becky is miles ahead on that one.
Beyond annoying!
That's one big shadow. I can think of something he can't see when he gets out of the tub.
I just ran the progression of the low volume and found:
If the market volume continues to shrink at the same daily rate, the market will decrease to under 100 shares of total volume in 15 years - but the S&P 500 will be over 37,000. Unfortunately anyone owning stock will not be able to close their profitable positions out since no one will be trading any more.
You will be paper rich but cash poor.
Don't they always go up?
SBSS 15. The Real Hunt Story Part 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swrrAQBsEE0
Were the Hunt brothers battling the Cartel? I would love some commentary.
The sun is still shining down on Wall Street. The boats are scurrying back and forth. I don't know how they could have thought that it was Daylight Savings. Maybe they went to the Killarney Rose for lunch and had too many Patron shots. They are probably at the Raccoon Lodge right now puking their guts out.
Don't you understand??
NOTHING MATTERS but propping up 401K statements until November 2012.
I agree overall for the long run...But many don't like Obama so are high gasoline prices an effort to unseat Obama?
yes, every little bit helps
high gas prices are an effort to get obama to put his name behind war with iran and push gas prices even higher. come back in a year from now and tell mr. lots of fun if exxon and bp (etc.) weren't once again records despite what the 'barrel' price of crude was or what people anywhere paid at the pump. ps. i don't own a car. i walk, train, ride a bike. could luck to the rest of you.
All your 401k now contain paper IOUs from the foraging US Government.
I totally agree with your premise but the market is not a shill for this administration. Soon it will re-assert its "independence".
Bullish
pump and dump ad infinitum
The anarchists are not in Zucotti Park. They are on Broad Street and Water Street.
first of all, the weekly charts indicate to me that we are embarking on a fifth wave up that won't stop till we take out the all time SPX highs.
Is zero hedge getting ready to go public?
I agree that as insane as it is the path of least resistance is still up. However, there is some really bad news out there just waiting for the worst possible time to rear. Seriously, I think this market has been so abused by the pointy heads at the CBs that when it cracks we will see circuit breaker halts for 2-3 days in a row.
The PPT took my profits away.....
I guess we shouldnt complain about can kicking.
For most of us, even those few with resources and recession proof jobs the short term pain of a deflationary or inflationary collapse will hurt our lufestyle and standard of living.
I think the view is that if we let the collapse occurr then we will be enlightened, morally renewed, and build a better system off the ashes of the old.
History suggests otherwise.
If no long term good can come out of the collapse of the current system, yet short term pain is inevitable, then maybe we should just go back to dancing with the stars and talking about paris hilton.
Does anyone have a good counterargument?
not sure if tyler covered this:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/27/us-ecb-banks-deposits-idUSTRE81Q0W920120227
i continue to scratch my head at the idea depositors still have euros in greek accounts. its unfathomable.
Gives new meaning to brain dead.
45% of Greeks have never used the Internet! Nuff said!
Why would you serf the internet when you can party with beautiful women instead?
Maybe I'm mad but I've just shorted DJIA @ 12,980 with a stop above 13,030....
Deep breath........Really not keen to be burned again.
Hopefully the PPT won't be in action
shorts are not allowed. this is a breather between printing. from every nation. i do not like it, and i can't go long, but shorts aren't allowed.
Even the machines are afraid to slam over Dow 13..... a tribute to the utter foolishness of the entire busted market.
Sounds good to short dow @13000 but a little obvious, no. I'm waiting. Next rally could be the short squeeze of the newly added DJIA 13,000 shorts.
You guys are fucking insane to short the DOW now. There are two or three big bullshit catalysts for this market to go higher yet.
Agreed, take a look at SHLD for a good reason to not expect much from a short position right now.
i agree
LTR0 = small + spin
we need gallagher and the sludge-0-matic for debt!
Did you trade short oil off $100? Or someone else here.
Fuck I quit listening to heads a long time ago
I understand my avatar but not yours...
Max a 'no pass ' playa
No Pass the only way to play, if you care about the odds
if there was a classic day on why hft shouldn't be allowed today was it.
well you can listen to the bears like Tyler who have the cogent reason for being bearish, or you can follow price and make money.....It's up to you
Oh I'm sure 13k will be in our rearview mirror soon enough. Lots of supply to be absorbed yet.
Doesn't mean I'm a bull though.