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Pre-LTRO - Place Your Bets
It appears markets have re-converged in the last few days across asset classes as European credit markets have rallied to meet a modestly underperforming European equity market after quite significant drops in the former a week or so ago. In the US, equity futures have reconverged with CONTEXT (our proxy for broad risk assets) as Treasuries have weakened and FX carry has improved tone overnight while futures themselves have drifted sideways. Commodities have largely drifted also with a modest improvement in Copper and slow drift up in WTI (back over $107 now). For some perspective, GDP-weighted European Sovereign risk has improved 80bps from its Nov2011 wides (or around 23%) but remains over 200bps wide of Post March 2009 lows and over 500% higher still - back only to levels seen in August 2011. Consensus appears to be that a larger than expected LTRO is positive for risk assets with Equities and then Credit the main beneficiaries (with FX the least) and a notable divide between European traders and non-European traders with the former believing the EUR will strengthen vs USD and the latter not so much (more focused on carry trades). For now, Italian and Spanish sovereign yields are leaking higher but in general wait-and-see mode remains with anxiety high.
After a rather large drop two weeks ago, credit has recovered notably well (and stocks have lost ground) but the two asset classes are in general back in sync with the pre-NFP print levels - with perhaps modest underperformance by financials.
Broadly speaking risk assets did not follow US equity futures in the day session through Monday and Tuesday but overnight have started to converge upwards (more risk-on) as Treasuries have leaked higher in yield and FX carry pairs have pushed up. Oil's modest rally has also helped.
GDP-weighted European sovereign risk has improved post Thanksgiving (and most so since LTRO 1) but the improvement must be seen in perspective and remember that Italian and Spanish banks are loading up on this increasingly contagion prone sovereign debt.
Charts: Bloomberg
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You're up early again :)
My bet is boring as usual: Ag and Au. I'm a simple creature, you see.
don't you know that Ag and Au in their physical forms are evil? mine force me to take crazy boating excursions
careful with that precious, Gollum said
The only way to return this great nation to fiscal responsibility is with a return to the Blowjob Standard.
My bet is physical __________________
...nice hint to the roulette table. though real casinos are quite honest. in comparison.
My bet: 800 fucking billion
There's no methodology to this bet. Just a lifetimes bad habits...
lol. 800 ''bidders''
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFueCN3r8SM
Just a matter of time, bitchez.
ONE MILLION DOLLARS!!!
You people can think this is radical, and I dont give a damn.
If you have money invested in any shape form or fashion, (401s/brokerage accts/bonds/money in a bank, etc...), then you are as much of a traitor and criminal as Bernanke or Geithner. You are enabling a system of slavery. You are the enemy. Go look in the damn mirror.
If this is you, then why are you participating in a system designed and built by evil people? If this is you, why are you cooperating with people actively destroying your country, your well being, and your childrens future... So you can feel safe? Because everyone is doing it? Wake the fuck up. If youve got monies moving through Wall St, or youre paying taxes, and you dont support these criminals and their mafias, then you have no right to bitch. Whats more is that you are on this site and should know better, and if you know and still do then you are as dumb as rocks or a collaborator.
Enough is enough, pull the plug. Ive had enough of people talking about trading and investing in one thread, and bashing the fed/wall st/ dc in another; you fucking hypocrites. Are you working for or against the people destroying our home?
IF YOU DONT AGREE, DONT PARTICIPATE; SIMPLE.
Crab Cake, one who's voice is crying in the wilderness, made me think of John. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sg-9cx8FEQ&feature=related
My bet, markets UP, UP, UP initially on whatever LTRO number published. After that, sell the news and another successful pump and dump job comes to light.
first reaction was down... now up up up... sicks markets
euro now disconnected from stocks... initially were both down, then reversed both up, now euro down and stocks stil up... bund is reversing... interesting...
sick central bankers, sick markets... SIKFUK
Behind the LTRO shenanigans lies the battle of Us-Anglo Oligarchs against Euro Oligarchs; the LTRO is the temporary liquid pill used by the latter to calm the former's shenanigans of drilling holes into the hull of their common ship, the financial Titanic of global ponzi; all this to pull the rug from under Euroland to gain a relative victory in Pax Americana land; land of uncalulable debt and prolific deficit spending.
When you are at the Mad Hatter's Ball on financial Titanic that's the sort of game that seems a good uber-alles pastime; all the while the young and desperate cry out their anger at the old and gutless, but rich and apparently hubristically callous, about their mindless propensity to dance till midnight on the ballroom floor of Titanic, while the band plays DJIA to 20000!
"Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first drive mad!"
@ Crabcake
Chill the f*** OUT!
You're presuming everyone gets it.
I have a question for you because it seems like you think you get it.
Once the system implodes what are the solutions? What are they? How will tehy help? Its all very well to espouse revolution but I want to know how people are going to be looked after because ultimately we're all responsible for each other right?
Put your money where your mouth is.
My guess is not enough. Why else would 81 CEOs and other top execs from banks around the world have resigned since 9/1/11?
http://americankabuki.blogspot.com/2012/02/81-resignations-from-world-banks-22712.html