Pre-NFP Summary And Miscellenia

According to Bloomberg's First Word Cross Asset Dashboard, sentiment rose modestly in European session and into U.S. open, with EU and U.S. equity indexes as well as Bunds and Treasury yields modestly higher, Bloomberg analyst TJ Marta writes in following note:

• Payrolls est. 155k; market possibly expecting upside surprise after yesterday’s ADP 325k vs est. 178k
• After most Asia equity indexes fell moderately, EU equity indexes, U.S. futures modestly higher; S&P futures +0.7%
• Treasury yields modestly higher ~1bps; Bund yields modestly to significantly higher, led by 2-yr +3.6bps
• FX, commodities, EU sovereign yield to Bund spreads mixed in mostly modest ranges
• In Europe, Hungarian bonds jumped by the most in 6 weeks following hope that talks between the Premier, Central Bank Chief and Ministers would resolve the IMF rescue impasse. The meeting was concluded with Orban saying that Hungary wants IMF aid and is ready to support central bank - in other words Hungary just caved to the banking status quo. CDS declined modestly from all time records.
• Germany November factory orders collapsed by 4.8%, on expectations of a 1.8% drop - biggest drop since September 2008 - the recession has now firmly moved into the core.
• ECB deposit facility usage rose to a new record of €455.3 billion.
• Liquidity conditions are measured by Swap Spreads improved modestly, and are now at early November levels: the 3M EURUSD basis swap rose 6.8 bps to -102.25, highest since November 7; the 3M Euribor/OIS dropped to 0.93, lowest since November 25

All eyes are on the BLS website where at 8:30 we get the latest Birth-Death and seasonal adjustments to make us all feel better just how great the recovery, which now needs over 250k jobs a month to return to pre-depression unenmployment rate by the end of Obama's potential second term, is proceeding.

Comments

[nolla]

Those German manufacturing orders, from WSJ:

"Foreign orders took the biggest hit, falling an adjusted 7.8% on a monthly basis after October's 8.1% gain. Of these, orders from outside the euro zone fell 10.3%, following October's 8.1% gain. Meanwhile, orders from within the common currency area fell 4.1% in November, after an 8.2% gain the previous month.

Domestic orders fell a more modest 1.1% in November, after gaining 1.3% in October."

So, if there were some decoupling going on, those figures would look like a bit different, right?

[jcaz]

LOL- yep, will be interesting to see how long this fantasy that anyone can "decouple" goes on-  probably as long as the US can fluff our GDP numbers, another month or so....

[distopiandreamboy]

Once is an anomaly, twice is a coincidence and three times is a trend.