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On The Predictability Of European Lies

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Earlier today we were delighted to predict precisely what the script of the European headline flow would be now that the only thing that matters is instilling the fear of Chairsatan in the Greek people, who are so confused that 75% of them wish to keep the Euro, but 80% wish for austerity to end - two mutually exclusive events. We outlined the daily event flow for the next month as follows:

  1. Europe releases definitive rumor that everyone is preparing for a Greek exit full of bombastic jargon and details of how Greece will be annihilated if it does exit the EMU;
  2. Immediate election polls are taken;
  3. If "anti-memorandum" Syriza support is not materially lower, rumor is promptly withdrawn for the day, only to be unleashed the next day with even more bombastic end of world adjectives describing the 9th circle of hell Greece will enter unless the Greek people vote "for" the pro-bailout parties, "for" the Euro, and "for" a perpetuation of the status quo;
  4. Rinse
  5. Repeat

We got the first confirmation of precisely this a few short hours later.

First, in response to the Grexit story Reuters reported earlier, we promptly got the denial:

  • GREEK FINANCE MINISTRY SAYS EUROZONE MEMBER STATES WERE NOT ASKED TO PREPARE FOR GREECE TO EXIT EUROZONE - BBG

And minutes later, the counter-denial:

  • BELGIUM FINANCE MINISTER SAYS IT WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE TO SAY WE DO NOT HAVE A CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR GREEK EXIT - WIRES

Rinse.... Repeat....

Sadly, the take home here is that if we could figure this BS out after thinking about it for 2 seconds, so can everyone else.

The sad ending of the soap opera has now become all too transparent.

 

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Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:19 | 2455216 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Sadly it is common knowledge that all politicians do is lie. They should be ashamed of themselves.

 

http://ericsprott.blogspot.ca/

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:31 | 2455294 HarryM
HarryM's picture

I can't believe things could be much worse if they just told the truth for a change ?

 

 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:34 | 2455322 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Seems like a variation on the "Ron Paul is unelectable" crowd here.

Paul got no delegates in the primary. Paul got lots of votes in the caucuses. Paul can't use those votes in the convention. Rinse. Repeat.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:07 | 2455514 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

Just like with any totalitarian (or oligarchical) system, there is a sense among the population that we NEED the caretakers just as much as the caretakers believe that we NEED them.  It is perpetuated by the Hegelian Dialectic, but it is an unhealthy circle of dependence that is not necessarily real (think Stockholm Syndrome).  It is perpetuated by both sides for failure or unwillingness to look outside the cycle.  Greeks will break the cycle once they are able to see and believe that, while breaking the cycle will be messy, chaotic and yes, perhaps painful, it is best (or a matter of survival) to seek solutions outside those provided by the caretakers.  When they refuse the debt-backed solutions of these caretakers, it will represent their first positive step to break the cycle.  The breaking of the cycle will not come from the caretakers.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:07 | 2455521 Rubicon
Rubicon's picture

I believe Nuremberg is still operational 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:30 | 2455974 odatruf
odatruf's picture

Perhaps things could not be much worse if they told the truth in terms of policy outcomes, but things would be much worse in terms of election outcomes for those same people.

Let's be honest: voters are not going to reward politicians for now telling the truth about how bad things are when those same politicians are largely to blame for putting the bad things in motion.  When things go bad, it is human nature to want to point fingers.  And those fingers will end up voting those in office out. All well and good so far as I am concerned.  But not so much for the politicians who make a nice living, have access to power and prestige and whose egos could not bear being turfed out.

Think about the ones who announce they are not going to stand for reelection after a long career and then all of sudden discover telling the truth. This indicates to me they know what is going on but only ring the bell on the way out the door when there is zero risk to them.  Worse than them is us.

We know - we damn well know - that all of the above is true.  Yet, we continue to tolerate them. We continue to let them tear apart what has been build.  And we continue to let them sit on cradles carried by the masses - us.  For all of that, I blame us.  Myself and everyone else. We suck.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:39 | 2456029 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Exactly, the middle class folks were slothful with the good life in the 50's, 60's, 70's and they allowed the fox to guard the henhouse. To our surprise, wink, wink, there are no more eggs.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:40 | 2455347 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

....the cronyism and lies of our leaders (politicians, bankers, lawyer, judges, CEOs) leads to.......

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-more-30-blocks-grey-decay?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

Many of these leaders are not guilty of the evil acts; however they are guilty of NOT prosecuting their peers who did cross the line. As in all other Banana Republics, the American legal system just requires money to go free after committing criminal acts. If the rich plunder through the legal system, then the poor plunder Sears.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:19 | 2455219 Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

Pass the popcorn please,  this is going to get good!

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:26 | 2455265 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

All that's left from my former popcorn bowl are the farts...

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:30 | 2455292 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

Dire times in Europe. I sometimes talk to people in Brussels through by job regulating small businesses. Recently I've been recommending they get someone who can really take the bull by the horns, a world respected statesman. Yes, every conference call I have with Brussels now ends with me telling them: the man you need is Tony Blair...

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:53 | 2455419 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

The man they need is Billy Mays.

 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:37 | 2455723 Satan
Satan's picture

You are fucking out of your mind! Tony Blair?

"regulating small businesses". Are you the fucker who wanted to fine my 12 year old daughter for setting up a lemonade stand on our street without a licence?

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:23 | 2455226 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

not to be an ass, but the rinse/repeat cliche needs to be replaced due to overuse....any ideas?

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:29 | 2455281 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

opinion=/= fact

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:24 | 2455640 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

4. Spunk

5. Refract

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:20 | 2455229 Conman
Conman's picture

Greek government has been scaremongering since the "memorandum" .Sad part is most Greeks fall for it.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:22 | 2455239 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

As Merkel stated about 5 mins ago "we are only here to exchange opinons".

2.5 years of fucking opinions  - brilliant.

"Opinions are like assholes. Everybody has got thm and everyone thinks everyone else's stinks"

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:31 | 2455287 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Yup, just a bunch of smart fellers with their noses lined up behind each others sphincters...

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:47 | 2455389 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

I believe you are describing a fart smeller - not a smart feller.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:31 | 2455298 walküre
walküre's picture

Remember, lizzy ... Merkel's opinions aren't her own. She's merely the messenger.

If her job is to protect German interests and nix the idea of Eurobonds than that is what she gets paid to do.

Personally, I think she's doing a fine job. Uniting Europe to the lowest common denominator is bullshit.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 19:52 | 2457102 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

she is great at protecting german interests with lowest-common-denominator fiat accounting bullshit and "suspense" accounts, imo, walk..

but the germans like her, so i'll be nice, ok?

hopefully the germans will begin to perceive that every single thing she had done has "also" been squid strudel and there is some "suspense" now, for them, too perhaps, or is it still too early?

france is a gonna take trainloads of "target" credits, now too, doncha think?  can california get some? 

but, you are correct;  these are "not EU-bonds"

i think...  are they? 

what do the "targetII balances" mean?  how does angela understand them as financial "instruments" and present them to the voters?  and why is this the best arrangement for germany? 

seriously.  can we be trusted with this intel? 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:24 | 2455256 Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

If someone owed me a lot of money I'd do whatever it takes to make them pay no matter how fucked up they were.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:43 | 2455361 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

To use a quote from another ZH poster:

The amorality of a Mafia enforcer supports

… a great solution if you are a bank that has bonds that are underwater. Taxpayers of the various EU countries? Not so much. Let's see what have they tried so far...oh right bail out the banks.

Guys its the same thing all over the world …

You put in a politician who is a banker shill. Shill runs up debts throwing pork to the elite and crumbs to the proles (they love to buy expensive military gear e.g. Greece buying GERMAN subs). Then the banks say "oh you can't pay back your debt why don't you just sell us your national assets?" They always want stuff like gold, islands, ruins (acropolis anyone?), oil (in Africa) and so forth and so on for pennies on the dollar in a fire sale which in no way gets you out of debt (read our control).

They also want everyone in debt so they can blow up the system and replace it with a single unified currency out of the BIS and a Brussels style unaccountable, unelected, opaque bureaucracy to run the entire world.

That's what's going on peeps. They tested it out in Africa in the 1960's and 1970's also in Central and South America (Don't cry for me Argentina...cry for yourself) and it worked like a charm. Greece is a test to see if it works in the 1st world. Btw don't buy the Germany vs Greece etc stuff. It's banks vs everyone else. Greece is to the EU banks (and American bond holding banks) what AIG was/is to Goldman Sachs. A conduit of cash from taxpayers to the bankers that makes it look like that money is being used to keep society (insurance, or Greek social structure) from crumbling when its really just a transfer from taxpayers to bankers.

 

 

 

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/everything-you-need-know-about-europes-dilemma-4-minutes#comments  

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:18 | 2455567 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

If I'd loaned money to someone continuously for years when it was increasingly obvious they couldn't repay it, I'd do whatever it takes to understand WTF I was thinking.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:38 | 2455730 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

"75% of them wish to keep the Euro, but 80% wish for austerity to end"

The rats were promised FREE CHEEZE! if they supported the leftists, and by god, they want that damned FREE CHEEZE! they "paid" for it, doncha know.

This doesn't end well, in any scenario.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:06 | 2455885 tallen
tallen's picture

Naughty Greece for thinking it can have its cake and eat it too.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 18:00 | 2456791 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

Yeah - just like those TBTF banksters who think they can bet on anything, anyway they want no matter how much they lose, and still get their multi-million dollar bonus!!

-30-

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:25 | 2455263 Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

It's a race to debase, and we're losing.  Ben can't do anything right.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:26 | 2455264 veyron
veyron's picture

Technically the two announcements are not mutually exclusive.  BELGIUM wasn't asked to prepare but they did anyway ...

 

No one asked me to prepare for the apocalypse but I still stockpile food and water ...

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:26 | 2455272 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

I wouldn't say they are liars, but what I think is getting really old is all of the gold/silver bugs on the Internet saying how Ag & Au (and associated mining stocks) have bottomed and that "any day now", the bottom will be in (or already IS in).  The current trend is down, period.

(Of course, after being up for 11 straight years, Au is allowed a breather, but the incessant ranting is getting annoying.)

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:35 | 2455324 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Agreed, bottom calling is silly - and the chants keep telling me that the derivative gold price has further to fall

That said, great time to pick up bullion

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:36 | 2455329 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

If gold were a commodity it probably would not have gone up 11 years in a row, something bigger is going on. If/when gold is monetized it will happen at a higher level. The paper price of gold may fluctuate wildly as other assets collapse and paper gold must be sold. The physical metal however....just watch....close to zero one day and then boom.

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 04:02 | 2458116 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

From:  http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1337803200.php

[quote] When the USTBond tower topples, it will lead to the great release upward in the Gold price. A grand Gold bull market is near. As the safety and security of the USTreasury Bond market is unmasked (an asset bubble), enduring a devastating wreck, the global funds will flock into Gold. The timing will be simultaneous with the rejection of the USDollar in trade settlement, and the end of the famed Petro-Dollar. The Gold cartel cannot stop the price rise, because they will have no physical gold. They are being raided of their gold bullion by the East, to the tune of 5000 (five thousand) metric tons since the end of February. That figure was confirmed by my source, who also claims that the major banks are short well over 20,000 metric tons after illegally grabbing the Allocated gold accounts held in their custody. Law suits are occurring in Switzerland to this effect. [/quote]

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:30 | 2455278 MrPoopypants
MrPoopypants's picture

"The Fed has the authority to buy foreign government debt ... [t]his class of assets offers huge scope for Fed operations because the quantity of foreign assets eligible for purchase by the Fed is several times the stock of U.S. government debt." - Ben Bernanke

Europe will continue to deteriorate, then the Fed will step in as savior.  QE3 may well be about purchasing PIIGS debt, in which case, get ready to buy EURUSD, and sell EUR and USD against all physical.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:32 | 2455295 Parabolic
Parabolic's picture

Sadly, the take home here is that if we could figure this BS out after thinking about it for 2 seconds, so can everyone else.

Uhhh, I'm sorry, but haven't we all observed the power of COGNITIVE DISSONANCE in this world??

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:33 | 2455310 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Shock and awe with financial weapons - politics of the 21st century. 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:37 | 2455335 walküre
walküre's picture

Tylers, you're suggesting there is a concerted effort in Europe.

I say there's much confusion and despite their statements trying to persuade everyone that there is a plan or at least the collective will to form a plan, there is neither.

Confusion reigns and the common currency between nations who don't see eye to eye is no longer sustainable.

They're going back to national currencies over there which will once again elevate the dreadful USD above all else. This time not a single shot had to be fired.

By design.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:38 | 2455340 dcb
dcb's picture

notice he says irresponsible, but doesn't deny it.

when government officials feel it is irresonsible to tell the truth the government must fall. it also shows exactly whom these elites are working for, and it isn't the general populace

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:45 | 2455375 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

BELGIUM FINANCE MINISTER SAYS IT WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE TO SAY WE DO NOT HAVE A CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR GREEK EXIT

Liars, they dont even have a plan "A".

 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:10 | 2455537 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

Actually he's telling the truth. Read it correctly with the right emphasis.

"It would be irresponsible to SAY we do not have a contingency plan for a Greek exit."

In no way, shape or form is he stating that they possess an actual contingency plan. All he's saying is that its not nice to point out that they don't have one.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 18:02 | 2456798 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

Great catch!!

-30-

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:49 | 2455398 john milton
john milton's picture

have not seen any spanish news today so I lay it here from the ground...

spannish hookers are invading the streets, usually dominated with eastern nationalites

se vende, se aquila or something in every window.. for sell or to rent..lot of them

unfinnished buildings everywhere.. unfinnished ghost towns, communities spotted

people with trollies collecting carton walk everywhere.. (they must have somekind of market somewhere)

if there is something left for this great country.. its just misery.. and i am sorry for my spelling mistakes..such a world

 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:09 | 2455536 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Sad to hear that.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:15 | 2455575 walküre
walküre's picture

Some Americans are already there. Once SNAP gets cancelled due to UST NSF, there will be a lot more..

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:06 | 2455508 TonyCoitus
TonyCoitus's picture

How many licks does it take to reach the middle of a Toostie Pop?

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:14 | 2455565 Sweet Chicken
Sweet Chicken's picture

Three

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:08 | 2455523 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I just can't believe that 4 years of meetings, statements, committees and promises have done nothing to resolve all these problems.  Somehow it seems like all this debt won't go away, no matter what proclamations the governments, central banks, etc.  make.  In fact, if anything it seems like the debt just keeps getting WORSE every year, even though I've heard many stern words and warnings about how this couldn't be allowed to happen.  It just seems like for some reason, continuing to spend the same or more amounts of money, without increasing revenues is making the debts and deficits BIGGER, in spite of all the earnest efforts of the governments of the world to talk these problems away.

 

Luckily, the effect of spending and borrowing seems to have the surprising side effect of making interest rates, and prices for the things I need (gas, oil, etc.) go down, while the only things that go up in price are paper products, so actually, I don't know why they're making such a fuss about this, seems like they've created the best of all possible worlds.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:17 | 2455589 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

 

 

I just can't believe that 4 years of meetings, statements, committees and promises have done nothing to resolve all these problems.

Clearly, you don't understand Europe.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:17 | 2455582 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

The FED is the rich uncle from Mars with all the cash needed for bailing out the world finacial elite.. They don't have the money - you may say, -  but they are NOT CONSTRAINED by anything other than the will of American Politicians. We should know what that means.

Don't fool yourselves. When endless liquidity is needed the FED will always be there. Its either that or the financial abyss. Every attempt will be made by the financial elite to keep us away from the abyss (European, US or Asian,) at all costs - primarily our costs not theirs.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:30 | 2455688 Vegetius
Vegetius's picture

The dance continues but the music has stopped. In an earlier report on ZH we have - 

UBS summarizes the situation more profoundly: "Integrate Or Die" as without a Euro confederation (in their eyes), continental Europe will cry 'havoc' once again.

We have CITI and JPM telling us how it is; well all I can say to that is Have you Guys not done enough Damage peddling your Bullshit since the 1980s

The power of the Financial Markets has grown at an expediential rate, so let’s point out that this is your mess, your dumb greed driven project and it has crashed and burned. But don’t worry Banksters unlike the old days you will not escape due in no small part to that great invention called the internet, you tagged yourselves in the good times and when those in power get really desperate it’s your heads that are going to be for Madam Guillotine


Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:50 | 2456067 Loukanika the r...
Loukanika the riot dog's picture

Suggest you add

3a) If "anti-memorandum" Syriza support is not materially lower, threaten employees with dismissal

as the Eurobank is alleged to have done here. Statement from SYIZA accuses employers of threatening employees with dismissal which of course the Bank denies.
It is of course illegal even here in Greece so the Attorney General may have a cursory glance at it.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 15:00 | 2456097 The Onion Of Tw...
The Onion Of Twickenham's picture

But that's how it works. If you don't have a Grexit plan then you're incompetent. If you do have a Grexit plan then obviously you think it's inevitable.

 

So you get someone in "The Ministry" to anonymously say you do have a Grexit plan. Then you deny it on the record.

 

It's called Baffling With Bullshit. It's the oldest trick in the political book. Why are you sounding surprised?

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 15:01 | 2456102 Chuck Mentzel
Chuck Mentzel's picture

It's funny how leaders of self-proclaimed model democratic countries (like Germany and UK) are trying to force the outcome of a democratic vote in another country by threatening (Greek) voters with expelling them from the euro if they don't vote "properly".

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 15:30 | 2456207 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

...and angela, getting ready for ?,  is choosing what to wear...

where isBalzac to describe the coquetry of her toilette?

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 21:01 | 2457264 zippy_uk
zippy_uk's picture

Here is the secret EU plan for dealing with the crisis. It is code named "Dead Parrot" so as to deflect the public from its true crisis managing purpose.

 

Praline Hello, I wish to register a complaint...Hello? Miss? Shopkeeper What do you mean, miss? Praline Oh I'm sorry, I have a cold. I wish to make a complaint! Shopkeeper Sorry, we're closing for lunch. Praline Never mind that, my lad. I wish to complain about this parrot what I purchased not half an hour ago from this very boutique. Shopkeeper Oh yes, the, the Norwegian Blue. What's wrong with it? Praline I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. It's dead, that's what's wrong with it! Shopkeeper No, no, it's resting, look! Praline Look my lad, I know a dead parrot when I see one, and I'm looking at one right now. Shopkeeper No no sir. it's not dead. It's resting! Praline Resting? Shopkeeper Yeah, remarkable bird, the Norwegian Blue, beautiful plumage, innit? Praline The plumage don't enter into it - it's stone dead. Shopkeeper No, no - it's just resting! Praline All right then, if it's restin', I'll wake him up! (shouts into cage) Hello Polly! I've got a nice cuttlefish for you when you wake up, Polly Parrot! Shopkeeper (jogging the cage) There, it moved! Praline No, he didn't. That was you pushing the cage! Shopkeeper I did not. Praline Yes, you did! (takes parrot out of cage, shouts) Hello Polly, Polly (bangs it against the counter) Polly Parrot, wake up. Polly. (throws it in the air and lets it fall to the floor) Now that's what I call a dead parrot. Shopkeeper No, no. It's stunned. Praline Look my lad, I've had just about enough of this. That parrot is definitely deceased. And when I bought it not half an hour ago, you assured me that its lack of movement was due to it being tired and shagged out after a long squawk. Shopkeeper It's probably pining for the fjords. Praline Pining for the fjords, what kind of talk is that? Look, why did it fall flat on its back the moment I got it home? Shopkeeper The Norwegian Blue prefers kipping on it's back! Beautiful bird, lovely plumage! Praline Look, I took the liberty of examining that parrot, and I discovered the only reason that it had been sitting on its perch in the first place was that it had been nailed there. Shopkeeper Well of course it was nailed there. Otherwise it would muscle up to those bars and voom. Praline Look matey (picks up the parrot) this parrot wouldn't voom if you put four thousand volts through it! It's bleedin' demised! Shopkeeper It's not, it's pining! Praline It's not pining, it's passed on. This parrot is no more! It has ceased to be. It's expired and gone to meet its maker.This is a late parrot. It's a stiff. Bereft of life, it rests in peace. If you hadn't nailed it to the perch it would be pushing up the daisies. It's rung down the curtain and joined the choir invisible. This is an ex-parrot. Shopkeeper Well, I'd better replace it, then. Praline (to camera) If you want to get anything done in this country you've got to complain till you're blue in the mouth. Shopkeeper Sorry guv, we're right out of parrots. Praline I see. I see. I get the picture. Shopkeeper (pause) I got a slug. Praline Does it talk? Shopkeeper Not really, no. Praline Well, it's scarcely a replacement, then is it? Shopkeeper Listen, I'll tell you what, (handing over a card) tell you what, if you go to my brother's pet shop in Bolton he'll replace your parrot for you. Praline Bolton eh? Shopkeeper Yeah. Praline All right.   He leaves, holding the parrot.
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