Predicting Tomorrow's NFP Based On The US 4-Sigma Beat Model of "Truth": +210,000 Jobs

Tyler Durden's picture

Since everything is making so much sense this week, we thought it worth using our statistical skills to estimate tomorrow's NFP print. Based on extensive and intensive analysis of macro, micro, and technical trends, we 'expect' a +210k print that fits nicely into the 4-Sigma-model that has been adopted by the data-providers-of-last-resort. This is literally off the charts and a cool 60k more than everyone's favorite bull from Deutsche Bank. Nothing would and could surprise us more... or less.

With an average of 126k and a Standard Deviation of 21k, we arrive at a sensible 210k estimate - trumping even Credit Agricole's bid (where have we seen them before?).

Chart: Bloomberg

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goldencross10's picture

Whoa Lavorgna does not have the highest estimate this month! That is something new.


SheepDog-One's picture

All is WELL! So we can now cancel all bailouts and clawback all QE...hell theres no problems anywhere, the economy is rockin!

trav7777's picture

all the kids in lake woebegone were at the 4th sigma from their own mean too

redpill's picture

ZHers must do a shot for every +10k over consensus.

mf7lakes's picture

I like that .... lookin' fwd to 6 shots --- thinking , hmmmmmmm, Patron, yeah, that should do it!

distopiandreamboy's picture

Shot of whiskey for every 10k below consensus! Looking forward to being drunk before the open!

ratso's picture

So now we have it. If the numbers are good, it must be rigged. If you're the administration, there is no way to making progress - bad numbers are bad and good numbers are bad.

Isn't that special.

LowProfile's picture

The good numbers wouldn't be seen as bad if they hadn't later revised them downward for the past 3 odd years.

redpill's picture

That's because things ARE bad.  Reality and fantasy are not equally sound arguments as you seem to suggest.  The question is not whether things are bad, only how much the Bureau of Lies, (Damn Lies, and) Statistics decides to distort that reality.

JPM Hater001's picture

I have a really important test tomorrow.  Can I just do a bong hit?

DOT's picture

Sorry, no bong hits in math and science; for the arts and letters only.


kito's picture

just got done reading How the Hippies Saved Physics....plenty of bong hits in math and science for sure.............

Frastric's picture

But I don't drink alcohol!

HedgeAccordingly's picture

maybe this NFP will sh*t the bed and break us out of this 10 handle channel - .. boring market.. 

saints51's picture

yep very boring market. Fell asleep in my chair today and woke up around 1pm to see basically the same crap i saw this morning. Hard to spot good supply and demand levels on M30 and H1. Had to switch to M5 like yourself and basically scalp some trades in Fx.

1835jackson's picture

Hope so I am making a killing on CARV

FoieGras's picture

+200k and I think we're in for another +80 day for the ES huh? I can't wait until we get -200k NFPs in Q1 2012, how will Liesman explain those?

hugovanderbubble's picture

Credit Agricole

Societe Generale

Credit Suisse



What a completly PERMABULLISH desperation of the Swiss - French Scammers....


MY BET +66 k

jcaz's picture

Say 225K, as long as they're jacking up numbers........

Captain Kink's picture

What about a 4 sigma miss?  That would bail me out of some CAT put options I put on at 91+ rather nicely. Ouch.

Central Illinois's picture

I've tried and failed many times with the Cat puts, it refuses to go down with any conviction.   Now if I could get out of my GS puts...

Captain Kink's picture

I did alright with it last time, and I was up Thanksgiving...Then Ben and the rest did their job on me, delaying the credit disaster that was brewing in europe.  It's okay, I still think they'll pay off, and I put on some longs elsewhere to offset while we ride.  

Hohum's picture

4 sigma miss?  Very bullish!

slaughterer's picture

Fuck it, let's go for broke, and throw away all semblance of sanity:

+500,000 jobs!

hugovanderbubble's picture

Apple store and Mcdonalds doesnt count:)

El Viejo's picture

Besides Apple corporate will probably start layoffs after Christmas.

geotrader's picture

OBAMA will agree to that.  Go BIG or go home.

The Axe's picture

I nice adjustment to the birth-death number should do the trick.....mes thinks.....

El Viejo's picture

Don't forget, "Oops, someone made a typo."

Smiddywesson's picture

Remember Carrie Fisher and John Belushi in the sewer in The Blues Brother's?  You tell the wildest lies just before your life comes to an end.  You know it's coming.  The year end rally!!!!!!

Rally so hedge funds make their month, but you don't rally so they make their year?  They are going to pull out all the stops, and 4 sigma lies are just the start.  If anyone is left alive on the short side, look out.

TradingJoe's picture

Spin Baby, SPIN!!!

defn8Dog's picture

All these estimates come from foreign banks and brokers.

alfred b.'s picture


Just what are these people smoking.....whatever it is, I want some!


135k would be bullish!!!!



Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Corporations need to fire people or their margins get compressed.  Negative numbers are bullish, positive numbers are bearish.

SheepDog-One's picture

Isnt it all about downsizing now, to show better numbers? When half a national chains stores close, thats celebrated as bullish.

The big dump will come on some 'good news', no doubt about that, its a bear market bottom line we're in a down cycle.

geotrader's picture

+1.0 jobs will be bullish.

Tsar Pointless's picture

Stop the noise, please!

In October, the household data survey showed a gain of 485,000 jobs, but the participation rate actually fell a tenth of a percent.

I think we see a drop in the number of employed in the household data. I think the not in labor force compoenent rockets up another 300,000 or so.

And the unadjusted U-3 should be around 8.6 to 8.7%.

Comay Mierda's picture

yea but the kicker will be the revision lol

Moneyswirth's picture

Any number less than "anticipated" by the "experts" is clearly the fault of the freak October "blizzard" a few weeks back.  It's always the weather. 

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

<---- No jobs/Negative Job growth

<---- Jobs/Positive Job Growth

Guesses?  +/- what people?

Tsunami Wave's picture

OT: Ron Paul plans on releasing a cookbook.. it includes "28 pages of tasty recipes from the Paul family and friends,” according to a description on the campaign website. It only costs $8 and doubles as a campaign contribution.

Frastric's picture

I'm going for a sub 100k print. Sure the data has been massaged upwards, but how many months have we seen when the economic data looks good, but then the NFP report misses expectations? I dunno but I have a feeling about tomorrow...

slewie the pi-rat's picture

i think a 5 sigma bump would be possible...

...if only there weren't so many people out of work!

Dust in the wheel's picture

Going to be a big UP. Just look at how many people must be on the Tilson PR payroll.

rodocostarica's picture

Im going with plus 106,000. WHat is the prize for correct guess? A nice ZH T shirt perhaps.

SheepDog-One's picture

'Problem reaction solution' and the big plunge coming at any minute now, but never today. Or tomorrow.

And for all their BS 'numbers' whatever they come in at, still no one out there will buy into it so circlejerk on, broken markets.

chump666's picture

market will sell if it is 200K big, that is a ridicules number, 175 is generous.  If we get 200+ large, you'll see the 30yr climb, equities will freak on that.

Between 100K and 110K will be the number/s. 

CrashisOptimistic's picture

A strong number undoes any pressure to extend or increase the SS payroll tax cut.  If that returns to its previous value, it should be about 0.75% off GDP next year.