Predicting Tomorrow's NFP Based On The US 4-Sigma Beat Model of "Truth": +210,000 Jobs
Since everything is making so much sense this week, we thought it worth using our statistical skills to estimate tomorrow's NFP print. Based on extensive and intensive analysis of macro, micro, and technical trends, we 'expect' a +210k print that fits nicely into the 4-Sigma-model that has been adopted by the data-providers-of-last-resort. This is literally off the charts and a cool 60k more than everyone's favorite bull from Deutsche Bank. Nothing would and could surprise us more... or less.
With an average of 126k and a Standard Deviation of 21k, we arrive at a sensible 210k estimate - trumping even Credit Agricole's bid (where have we seen them before?).