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Predicting Tomorrow's NFP Based On The US 4-Sigma Beat Model of "Truth": +210,000 Jobs

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Since everything is making so much sense this week, we thought it worth using our statistical skills to estimate tomorrow's NFP print. Based on extensive and intensive analysis of macro, micro, and technical trends, we 'expect' a +210k print that fits nicely into the 4-Sigma-model that has been adopted by the data-providers-of-last-resort. This is literally off the charts and a cool 60k more than everyone's favorite bull from Deutsche Bank. Nothing would and could surprise us more... or less.

With an average of 126k and a Standard Deviation of 21k, we arrive at a sensible 210k estimate - trumping even Credit Agricole's bid (where have we seen them before?).

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 12/01/2011 - 16:55 | 1936225 goldencross10
goldencross10's picture

Whoa Lavorgna does not have the highest estimate this month! That is something new.

 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:58 | 1936460 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All is WELL! So we can now cancel all bailouts and clawback all QE...hell theres no problems anywhere, the economy is rockin!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 18:20 | 1936524 trav7777
trav7777's picture

all the kids in lake woebegone were at the 4th sigma from their own mean too

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 16:55 | 1936226 redpill
redpill's picture

ZHers must do a shot for every +10k over consensus.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:00 | 1936248 mf7lakes
mf7lakes's picture

I like that .... lookin' fwd to 6 shots --- thinking , hmmmmmmm, Patron, yeah, that should do it!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:28 | 1936354 distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

Shot of whiskey for every 10k below consensus! Looking forward to being drunk before the open!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:33 | 1936381 ratso
ratso's picture

So now we have it. If the numbers are good, it must be rigged. If you're the administration, there is no way to making progress - bad numbers are bad and good numbers are bad.

Isn't that special.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 18:03 | 1936471 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

The good numbers wouldn't be seen as bad if they hadn't later revised them downward for the past 3 odd years.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 18:40 | 1936600 redpill
redpill's picture

That's because things ARE bad.  Reality and fantasy are not equally sound arguments as you seem to suggest.  The question is not whether things are bad, only how much the Bureau of Lies, (Damn Lies, and) Statistics decides to distort that reality.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:33 | 1936383 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I have a really important test tomorrow.  Can I just do a bong hit?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 18:16 | 1936503 DOT
DOT's picture

Sorry, no bong hits in math and science; for the arts and letters only.

 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 18:26 | 1936539 kito
kito's picture

just got done reading How the Hippies Saved Physics....plenty of bong hits in math and science for sure.............

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 18:33 | 1936575 Frastric
Frastric's picture

But I don't drink alcohol!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 16:56 | 1936233 Irish66
Irish66's picture

plus 150,000

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:00 | 1936250 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 16:59 | 1936244 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

maybe this NFP will sh*t the bed and break us out of this 10 handle channel - http://hedge.ly/ttrPUj .. boring market.. 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:53 | 1936446 saints51
saints51's picture

yep very boring market. Fell asleep in my chair today and woke up around 1pm to see basically the same crap i saw this morning. Hard to spot good supply and demand levels on M30 and H1. Had to switch to M5 like yourself and basically scalp some trades in Fx.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 16:59 | 1936245 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

Hope so I am making a killing on CARV

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 16:59 | 1936246 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

+200k and I think we're in for another +80 day for the ES huh? I can't wait until we get -200k NFPs in Q1 2012, how will Liesman explain those?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:00 | 1936251 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Credit Agricole

Societe Generale

Credit Suisse

Natixis.....

 

What a completly PERMABULLISH desperation of the Swiss - French Scammers....

 

MY BET +66 k

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:02 | 1936259 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Say 225K, as long as they're jacking up numbers........

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:04 | 1936263 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

What about a 4 sigma miss?  That would bail me out of some CAT put options I put on at 91+ rather nicely. Ouch.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:27 | 1936360 Central Illinois
Central Illinois's picture

I've tried and failed many times with the Cat puts, it refuses to go down with any conviction.   Now if I could get out of my GS puts...

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 18:06 | 1936476 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

I did alright with it last time, and I was up Thanksgiving...Then Ben and the rest did their job on me, delaying the credit disaster that was brewing in europe.  It's okay, I still think they'll pay off, and I put on some longs elsewhere to offset while we ride.  

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 20:22 | 1936808 Hohum
Hohum's picture

4 sigma miss?  Very bullish!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:03 | 1936266 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Fuck it, let's go for broke, and throw away all semblance of sanity:

+500,000 jobs!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:14 | 1936309 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Apple store and Mcdonalds doesnt count:)

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:34 | 1936342 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Besides Apple corporate will probably start layoffs after Christmas.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 22:12 | 1937028 geotrader
geotrader's picture

OBAMA will agree to that.  Go BIG or go home.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:05 | 1936276 The Axe
The Axe's picture

I nice adjustment to the birth-death number should do the trick.....mes thinks.....

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:24 | 1936351 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Don't forget, "Oops, someone made a typo."

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:07 | 1936277 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Remember Carrie Fisher and John Belushi in the sewer in The Blues Brother's?  You tell the wildest lies just before your life comes to an end.  You know it's coming.  The year end rally!!!!!!

Rally so hedge funds make their month, but you don't rally so they make their year?  They are going to pull out all the stops, and 4 sigma lies are just the start.  If anyone is left alive on the short side, look out.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:06 | 1936278 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Spin Baby, SPIN!!!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:06 | 1936279 defn8Dog
defn8Dog's picture

All these estimates come from foreign banks and brokers.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:07 | 1936285 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

Just what are these people smoking.....whatever it is, I want some!

 

135k would be bullish!!!!

 

 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:18 | 1936322 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Corporations need to fire people or their margins get compressed.  Negative numbers are bullish, positive numbers are bearish.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 18:07 | 1936484 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Isnt it all about downsizing now, to show better numbers? When half a national chains stores close, thats celebrated as bullish.

The big dump will come on some 'good news', no doubt about that, its a bear market bottom line we're in a down cycle.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 22:14 | 1937032 geotrader
geotrader's picture

+1.0 jobs will be bullish.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:09 | 1936293 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Stop the noise, please!

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

In October, the household data survey showed a gain of 485,000 jobs, but the participation rate actually fell a tenth of a percent.

I think we see a drop in the number of employed in the household data. I think the not in labor force compoenent rockets up another 300,000 or so.

And the unadjusted U-3 should be around 8.6 to 8.7%.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:10 | 1936295 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

yea but the kicker will be the revision lol

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:10 | 1936296 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Any number less than "anticipated" by the "experts" is clearly the fault of the freak October "blizzard" a few weeks back.  It's always the weather. 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 18:02 | 1936301 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

<---- No jobs/Negative Job growth

<---- Jobs/Positive Job Growth

Guesses?  +/- what people?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:12 | 1936305 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

OT: Ron Paul plans on releasing a cookbook.. it includes "28 pages of tasty recipes from the Paul family and friends,” according to a description on the campaign website. It only costs $8 and doubles as a campaign contribution.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/republican-presidential-hopeful-ron-paul-coming-a-family-cookbook-article-1.984535

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:21 | 1936334 Frastric
Frastric's picture

I'm going for a sub 100k print. Sure the data has been massaged upwards, but how many months have we seen when the economic data looks good, but then the NFP report misses expectations? I dunno but I have a feeling about tomorrow...

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:28 | 1936365 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i think a 5 sigma bump would be possible...

...if only there weren't so many people out of work!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:38 | 1936401 Dust in the wheel
Dust in the wheel's picture

Going to be a big UP. Just look at how many people must be on the Tilson PR payroll.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 17:49 | 1936430 rodocostarica
rodocostarica's picture

Im going with plus 106,000. WHat is the prize for correct guess? A nice ZH T shirt perhaps.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 18:09 | 1936454 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Problem reaction solution' and the big plunge coming at any minute now, but never today. Or tomorrow.

And for all their BS 'numbers' whatever they come in at, still no one out there will buy into it so circlejerk on, broken markets.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 18:11 | 1936493 chump666
chump666's picture

market will sell if it is 200K big, that is a ridicules number, 175 is generous.  If we get 200+ large, you'll see the 30yr climb, equities will freak on that.

Between 100K and 110K will be the number/s. 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 18:49 | 1936628 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

A strong number undoes any pressure to extend or increase the SS payroll tax cut.  If that returns to its previous value, it should be about 0.75% off GDP next year.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 20:02 | 1936764 chump666
chump666's picture

noted.  so a strong number will have a damper effect on any 'rally'.  so i am thinking that the number will be weak, which should also send stocks down.  This market isn't going higher, hitting resistance now. 

I'll take the bet on a slight (very slight) 100K increase.  With full time hrs cut.  Good for a 200 point drop on the Dow

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 18:28 | 1936550 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Why not 500K+ ? Obama just got reelected.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 18:34 | 1936583 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Where's Dick "Oy-vey" Bove' been hiding lately?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 18:36 | 1936587 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

I think the new jobs number should be reported in Binary. That would make the report much more interesting.

 

1100100K jobs! (sure looks much bigger)

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 19:30 | 1936711 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

4th Stigma. What could go wrong? Lots of fresh young faces stocking shelves at Walmar today. Was in such a good mood, I even tipped the Greeter.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 23:28 | 1937201 OCTOPVS
OCTOPVS's picture

too bad they are all 3.5+ gpa graduates from top tier schools...

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 20:12 | 1936780 vipmoneymachine
vipmoneymachine's picture

All retailers hiring, I say 666,666 is the actual number.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 20:30 | 1936825 Ponzified Plebe
Ponzified Plebe's picture

Does this mean I can stop waiting tables like I was ten years ago and go back to my job in construction management?

 

Screw you naysayers, pass the hopium please

/ BS

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 20:37 | 1936838 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Tyler if you're right on a couple guesses like this it might embarass them enough to cut the crap. Brilliant strategy.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 21:17 | 1936908 Barry Freed
Barry Freed's picture

The real action is trying to figure how how many months before the downard revisions are quietly released.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 21:37 | 1936948 Wixard
Wixard's picture

Im gonna go 163k 

 

 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 21:51 | 1936981 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

Anyone know Mike Darda/MKM's estimate? He called it right on the number  a few times recently, the ONLY guy.

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