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Presenting The 10 Most Spectacular Financial Speculations Of The Past 300 Years
Submitted by Gresham's Law
10 Spectacular Speculations from The Great Financial Adventures of the Past 300 Years
Sometimes it seems like the investment community operates on the assumption that the world started in 1929 – or at least that the financial booms, busts and speculators preceding the 1920s are irrelevant to the modern investor. We think this is misguided. Just consider that this common worldview ignores an age where speculators lived in sprawling mansions on Fifth Avenue (as opposed to apartments in the same place measuring about 1/100th the size)! We imagine that there’s a lot to learn from looking at the past 300 years as opposed to the past 80. With this in mind; here we present what we believe to be the best trades of all time.
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Shut up and take my money !
Bend over first please.
How do I play this exponential chart:
http://www.population-growth-migration.info/images/Past-World-Population...
Bet on levelling off of the trend. Do this by buying gold now, then selling it for productive assets as the rate of population growth slows.
As the population rises, you can lever your gold into more man-hours of work. Once it levels off, productive assets will supply the products that all those people want, and are working hard for.
If you didn't notice yet, not one of these investors got rich either going long or shorting gold.
They all blew there brains out not too many years later.....
AFAIK that was just Jesse...
"If you didn't notice yet, not one of these investors got rich either going long or shorting gold."
It is a very short list.
Bernie Smith made a quick 75% buying gold just before FDR's USD devaluation, assuming he was buying with cash and wasn't leveraged.
In addition you can read above where MANY of these people were paid in GOLD as it was the currency of choice at the time and it turned out to be an EXCELLENT store of wealth. Just try getting anything but collector value for your "tally sticks" today...
bet on war.
Compare it to energy use and debt, then buy beans, bullets and bullion.
Everything thats unsustainable will end
Exponential functions are unsustainable
GUNS AND FOOD BITCHES
[How do I play this exponential chart:] ...
"Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist"
Kenneth Boulding
The next great play will be made soon enough.
http://ericsprott.blogspot.ca/
You are missing Gary Shilling who also had a huge speculative bet on long US treasuries and has HELD them for the entire length of the rally!
Certainly one of the finest strategists ever.
Shilling: global recession imminent. Fed is "out of bullets". Deflation, not inflation, looms. Dollar is best horse in the glue factory and it will be decades before another alternative is floated for a viable reserve. China is going to hard land. Yen is getting to the end of it's run as a safe haven. JGBs near the point of a reversal. Short stocks (esp financials), commodities, long dollar index and treasuries. Neutral on gold.
I'm still pissed they cancelled his show. His opening song was such a catchy jingle.
Man I agree - loved the Gary Schilling show on HBO. I loved it when Warren Zevon was on and they basically told him, 'Play Werewolves of London or GTFO.' Funny stuff.
Come november, THE SHIT WILL HIT THE FAN, beginning sirs, with U.S. Bond market collapse.
Come november, THE SHIT WILL HIT THE FAN, beginning sirs, with U.S. Bond market collapse.
time that bitch phucker! become famous!
I truly love stories of Great Americans who produced nothing but just placed a correct bet. Say, how about stories of Great Americans who bet on red and make money in Vegas? What great fun! Fuck that Salk or Jobs guy; my heroes will always be the feckless ticks who shuffle paper and make nice piles of tidy fiat.
God Bless Amerixa.
HELP GET RID OF DIMON! - Simon Johnson's Petition To Remove Jamie Dimon From The New York Fed Passes 40,000 SignaturesThanks in advance to anyone who signs the petition to remove the Dimon Cancer from the Board of the NY Fed.
Hahahahahaha, He fucks you anyway possible and you want to sign a petition.......
Repeat after me: Mehhhhh
You're right but you also have to admit that 50,000 signatures calling for Dimon to be removed is not completely useless.
We gotta fight these fuckers with every tool in the arsenal.
Even though political posturing is unlikely to unseat the oligarchy protests and petitions introduce one to the fray and offer the opportunity for one to become radicalized by the (broken) process thereby opening the door to other possibilities.
No I don't, because it is completely useless.
Useless as compared to posting on Zerohedge, I suppose.
Yes you do, but.
What amazes me to most after 2+years of ZH that after all the chest thumping and retaliatory brouhaha not a GODDAMD single thing is done, not ONE THING.
Not even one of those boehoe letter to one of those evil banksters that made the news, let alone that someone REALLY "harmed" one.
I mean, between 2008 and 2012 how many big wigs have been in the papers or on tv, not like they are hard to find are they?
So bankers and their ilk are pure evil, right, then why are they stil running the show?
I read Zero hedge and pound my chest for my own consumption and amusement. When it comes to my ethnicity, I confess to being about 3/4 cynic, however, the info I get from reading Zero Hedge and the comments does not fall on deaf ears. I utilize any valuable thought or data in my own selfish desire for knowledge & survival. I, therefore, am doing something concrete. I am endeavoring to survive and keep my personal ideals alive in this world of no ideals. Change begins one person at a time so start with the "man in the mirror" 50K selfdescribed rugged individualist Zero Hedge readers and their 100 camp-follower trolls don't have to sign petitions or put on public displays of patriotism to make a big difference in the future of this world. If you can keep from being flattened by any of a thousand huge inertia bound dominos then maybe you can be one of the rebuilders, hopefully with friends and family which survived, perhaps by ones own preparedness and truly concrete actions.
I wonder how all of these guys would have done vs. the Algos and all the current market manipulation. Its hard to beat the house when they take your money if the market goes up or down.
Buy (sell) carefully when sentiment overshoots and prices are at an edge. Hold your position.
Financials cannot levitate forever. Look at the reported revenues for the sector as a whole. Deteriorating ratings quality, low interest rates, low trading volume, economic headwinds, sentiment and regulatory environment make this sector very vulnerable for a correction.
If you don't mark to market, eventually the market will do it for you.
BAC is flirting w/ a 6 spot this week and MS could touch single digits
Just remember that coordinated global intervention happened within hours of BAC closing under five last year. It's called Too Big to Fail for a reason. But along with the spirit of this article shorting TBTF will be a major winner some day. Zombie banks, unbacked currencies and negative interest rates are all things that can't last forever.
Then, long / short. There are way better stimulus plays out there.
As long as OPEC only takes dollars for oil, no worries.
Take a look at Goldman Sachs and contrast with Apple. Both are trading at 14X trailing P/E's. One company has 90% earnings growth with a huge pipeline of cheap stimulus friendly products in it's pipeline. The other has an especially levered business model and shrinking revenues. Apple may be expensive, but valued in banking shares it is as cheap as dirt!
Buffett says the banks are in great shape. Fortunately for Buffett, he owns PREFERRED shares.
I agree Monkey. And buy tillable land. Rice land is good if possible. The family can always vacation productively, wading in the water while planting rice.
that's called "The Government." Business does not succeed in a ZIRP universe by "stealing the customer money." They are...literally...stealing from themselves. Government on the hand doesn't understand this until...well, everyone is dead.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tl0LZsyi_tA
Good point. Before computers and HFT, these guys WERE THE MARKET MANIPULATION. Livermore explained how in detail, and he could no longer make money when rules were put in place.
It wasn't the rules, it was the market. In the twenties you could swing a big line. Buy or sell 50,000 shares of a popular stock, which could be $100 $200 a share or more. That means a $5,000,000 or $10,000,000 trade in a day or two. Livermore and others did operate that big.
In 1931 the stock market was so dead, brokers played baseball on the floor of the NYSE for something to do. In brokerages around the country, brokers and customers would be dozing in their chairs when suddenly, the ticker started clattering and wake everybody up. Someone would look at the tape, it would be 20 shares of Montgomery Ward at $7. Then the tape would fall silent and everyone would go to sleep for another 20 minutes.
Livermore was still involved in the markets up until his death in 1940. I have his book, How To Trade Stocks, also published in 1940.
In 1932 trading volume picked up.
The boy plunger could have bought the lows and simply held (as a very few did), but, it wasn't in his blood. He could have bought bonds and went fishing. Instead, he lost 100 million and killed himself.
Lots to learn from Livermore including what NOT to do.
I guess Christmas is gonna be bleak with Bling Blings and Waffle Irons. Can;t wait for the whiny azzz bitchezzz about how miserable Christmas was .
Christmas has been cancelled in favor of beatings until moral and the stock market improve.
actually "The Big Short" by Michael Lewis had a list of guys in addition to K.Bass that made a ton of $. I hope it works out for him on the Japs. His prepper compound in TX sounds pretty cool also.
Hands down, without question, the U.S. Fixed Income market is by far the biggest bubble in world history, particularly when "weighted" by the size of the market and the number of dollars invested.
Just look at these charts, they are almost un-natural.
U.S. Treasuries have gone virtually straight up since the AAA downgrade a year ago.
And muni-bonds have had their biggest, fastest rally in history in the 2 years since Meridith Whitney was screaming about a muni-crash.
http://www.wallstreetbear.com/board/view.php?topic=103657&post=377379
good/scary charts. my favs are the ones that you click on the link at bottom of page about home improvement/paint manufacturers. Sherwin Williams @ $135 a share-WTF. and the HDs by me are like ghost towns-overpriced/shitty sales and all tools can be had for much cheaper on AMZN
It was tough time dealing with that Housing Market in 2008. After I told them to "Paint it Red" however, that just about solved it!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9splceYBXQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhSc8qVMjKM
And why are people buying bonds hand over fist? They are afraid of a stock market crash. I heard someone on Bloomberg radio talking about a possible 1% ten year by the end of this year. I'd say S&P sub 1100 or even sub 1000 if that happens.
Also, the Fed is the biggest buyer of the long end with Op Twist. Will the ballon deflate or pop?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxKJyeCRVek
Looks like they saved Goldman AND JP Morgan/Chase. But it was a close call!
Maybe on day Robot, but Japan is much worse off. Japan is approaching the stage of importing capital. Debt has been held internally and ratios are changing. Rate of change for US is th opposite.
How would you play Japan?
With a bottle of sake and a karaoke mic...giggity.
LONG HENTAI & MANGA. SHORT RADIATION DAMPERS.
I'm glad someone else is pointing out how wrong Meredith Whitney has been. Every time I see TD or someone on this board says "Paging Mrs. Whitney" because .01% of municipal bonds default my eyes nearly roll out of my fucking head. I've made a killing not listening to her and tried to tell everyone that would listen. I was junked left and right for my comments.
so what do you think of her Citigroup call then?
"Stockton is trying to become the first American city since the Great Depression to use bankruptcy to successfully force bondholders to take less than the principal they’re owed. "
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-21/bankrupt-stockton-says-it-revealed-bondholder-offers.html
I wouldn't say that Meredith Whitney is wrong just yet.
Best Trade Ever?
Simple. It was the trade that private bankers foisted upon the willing population when the Fed was created.
edit: I assume it's obvious that "best" means most profitable for the victor, and not "best" in any moral sort of way. That trade dwarfs all the others listed on that chart.
Or the couple of million the rothschilds and other old seedmoney put into the Bank of the United States, shortly after founding. Since then yow asses been powned.
The Act of the FED was not a trade but a coup d'etat.
The common denominator in all these trades is an uncommon denominator.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbBXoYf7O4g
I'm not trying to pander to power, i say they are uncommon denominators because the people that are often right are on their own. Which is something Greenspan never was, nor Gold bugs, nor most factions in this split world we all live in. What i'm interested in is which current loner will end up holding the keys to the kingdom. Or if a true loner exists in this interconnected world.
"they say we're dangerous." I say "we're just small." Thanks for noticing tho!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMFvr1VwSSo
Thanks, nice review to the cargo cult worshipper he always was.
after a while "all we do is go beep beep." the only wonder theb is "why all the attention?"
Silver...?
& guns etc
Duck :)!
Still waiting on Kyle Bass' Japan call. A declining homogeneous population is somehow a bad thing in his head. What a lunatic. It will bankrupt him.
I don't think its a "bad" thing in his head, i think it (the declining homogeneous population) is a situation that creates a shrinking tax base in the face of a growing debt burden which leads to a checkmate. Waiting is something he can afford.
He's already lost 61 percent on it. Wonder when he will eat his pride and end his position.
Remember he's assymetric on this trade. 61% of what? He's long too. I've no doubt that he's sweating tho.
Sweating. He used options right? High-reward, fat-tail trade. You only gotta hit one of those.
Nothing is ever guaranteed. You have to be solvent in the face of scared redeeming clients usually when you hit that fat tail.
he buys his shit for pennies on the dollar-and uses OPM.
True. If that ain't so special why ain't all of our sorry asses doing the same?
Absolutely nothing beats the ' PET ROCK ' for the zaniest and most profitable exploitation of the stupidity of American humanoids.
Oh really? Consider the concept "Dollar". The biggest ripoff of an entire population in world history; by an order of magnitude.
A rip off is involuntary, A sales compaign persuades people to voluntarly part with their cash! Not the same at all!
You are right about that Rainman, That was truly Genius marketing, think how proud Bernays, and Goebbels too, would have been if they could have seen that? I've still got my Pet Rock, after you invest emotions in something how can you just throw it away?, perhaps it really doesn't have any feelings, as many say, but surely I do! I admit, I don't sleep with it anymore, (The relationship has grown cold with times passing, and no longer offers me the emotional support I crave.) Still it has a place of prominence in my house, I mention/introduce it to all visitors and many seem compelled to pet and fondle it! A person who invests their emotions in a rock has invested in something solid! Don't forget that, if you ever get to feeling lonely, let me know, I'd never let my pet go of course, but there are a few family members around, for a small fee I'll rustle up one for you.
I would never PURCHASE a pet rock. I would at least have one of my children paint one from the creek for me. At least then I could find some value in it.
i would think the pet rock evolved into that digital thing you had to feed and eventually ended up being farmville....with a few other absurdities along the way
You are barking up the wrong tree. I don't do FB or any of its life sucking little games. I don't even have cable. Virtual fun would be as amusing to me as happy pills. Not interested.
A very good take on things Smlbizman, I can see how the interactive, `Digital thingy` could deliver a more satisfying emotional reaction, and would actually "Die" if too long neglected, evoking a response no rock, lying supine in it's place ever could. (As I've mentioned before, I was and am, a pet rock owner, a Pet rock could of course give you a good workout if you played a game of `Throw and fetch with it`, throw and fetch is just what it sounds like, when people are exercising their dogs and themselves the people throw and the dog fetches, when played with a rock the human plays both roles thereby getting twice the exercise.,Great fun and very exhilarating! With all best wishes!
Bottled water?
from robo's posts... I thought he would be on that bull (shit) side of the list...
No, today his good side is posting. When he forgets to take meds, he flips to usual Robo.
The greatest speculators of all-time are unknown. They made a fortune and kept their mouths shut.
that I believe.
Don't forget Bill Clinton and his horrid National Homeownership Strategy whicn encouraged banks and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac to streamline underwriting and target middle and low income households with debt they couldn't afford.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/21/the-atlantageorgia-housing-market-victims-of-clintons-national-housing-policy-and-fed-monetary-policy/
Too bad it didn't go back 400 years - my favorite is the Dutch Tulip Mania, 1637.
Most all of these people made money in "free markets" when bank failures were allowed.
Many of these trades just can't happen now with the Fed acting as central planner and manipulating every aspect of the market to prevent any "pain". Its the financial extension of the Nanny State.
What if the fed/govt itself fails?
"your State first, phucker."
this just in: heebs rake in ill gotten gains again and again ad nauseum.
Jewish Copper Kings Reap Rich War Profits
nothing pays like resource destruction, the blood sacrifice is an added spiritual bonus.
setting up market crashes pays well too, plug gets pulled again in 3..2..1.
Goyim die so that the 12 Tribesman can worship the Golden Calf. Hank Ford- that fucker had some balls. they don't make them like him anymore. you brighten my day tamboo :)
The most odious speculation without doubt in this country's history is Alexander Hamilton's establishment of the First Bank of the United States.
Hamilton cleaverly disguised his true intent (that of gaining greater wealth for the already wealthy) by allowing the citizenry to mix private money with "government" money. In his plan the issuence of bonds was also accomplished. They were horrendously oversubscribed and the wealthy benefited once again. The country now had a central bank. The individual citizen lost.
Thom Jeffferson stated it best:
"The Bank of the United States is one of the most deadly hostilities existing, against the principles and form of our Constitution. An institution like this, penetrating by its branches every part of the Union, acting by command and in phalanx, may, in a critical moment, upset the government. I deem no government safe which is under the vassalage of any self-constituted authorities, or any other authority than that of the nation, or its regular functionaries. What an obstruction could not this bank of the United States, with all its branch banks, be in time of war! It might dictate to us the peace we should accept, or withdraw its aids. Ought we then to give further growth to an institution so powerful, so hostile?" --Thomas Jefferson
'Nuff said
You forgot to mention Hilliary Clinton's cattle futures trades.
Yes.
It's not in human nature to mak 100K on your first trade and then walk away.
I don't know so much about that. I won $200 playing Bingo one night. First time I ever played and also the last. Now, if she had done it 2 times running and then quit I would be much more skeptical.
She did it the old fashioned way with a little help,, you place 2 trades a day , one up , one down ,, you book them after the market close , the winner goes in your column , the losing trade goes in the muppets column ... rinse lather repeat
Sad...my shorts in August last year didnt make the list
How about Mitt Romney's $100MM IRA?
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/95e5029c-d276-11e1-abe7-00144feabdc0.html#axzz21HQ24sCd
Shiite, as an outsider (from Australia) i can't fail to notice that you people are failing to notice that what makes a country great is not political correctness. It's a willingness to be yourselves in the face of what the global wish for economic homogenisation bestowed upon you may be.
I've been to your country over fifty times in my life. I admire you folks. I am a member and former participant in the Henley-On-Todd Boat Regatta, Alice Springs,NT. great fun!
Please provide the formula for the emetic we need to injest to rid ourselves of PC. We already tried Liberia back in the day. Unfortunately that failed.
As mentioned before, market intervention has only postponed the inevitable.
Despite short and medium term market vacillation - the following remains a constant :
>> USDX monthly indicators [ie big picture] continue to warn of significant long term USD upside. (thus EURUSD & AUDUSD etc bearish)
>> SPX monthly indicators [ie big picture] continue to warn of significant long term downside for equities which will be worse than 2008.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis
bring back the scary clown...
Dead Canary makes a fortune buying silver in 2008. Retires on his personal south sea island in 2014 with his super model wife.
Where is ZeroHedge reader with tinfoil hat buys gold at 1800.00?
Dude. You didn't?
We have Charles Yerkes to thank as financier for the original parts of the London deep level Tube syatem around 1900.
JP Morgan in the Silver Market....to date.
Let us not forget Bunker Hunt, the richest man in the world on a cash basis, who went bankrupt in the early 80's speculating in silver futures.
The Hunt brothers were ruined by by the destroyers of wealth for trying to sell their silver which they had over time accumulated (on their own Mr. President) at a time not approved by the squid.
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?251604-The-Hunt-Brothers-were-destroyed-by-the-Federal-Reserve
that is the truth. Off the gold standard for international trade settlement in 1971, OPEC oil embargo, Libya nationalizes oil industry put hunt brothers out of business, hunts look for value.. buy silver, squid gangs up on them as the fiat $ not looking so good... hunt brothers made into the bad guys though they lost most of their fortunes.
Pretty pathetic article
Don't neglect Nathan Mayer Rothschild.
funny how that name isn't mentioned isn't it?
I don't see how these measure up to the successful speculations in mining or high-tech. Cecil Rhodes played a hunch about the breakdown of Kimberlite and took over the richest mines on earth. Chuck Fipke gambled everything on a hunch about diamonds in Canada and discovered one of the largest troves on earth. The story goes on and on. Who were the early investors in Apple, Cisco, Google, etc. These are the real speculators and entrepreneurs.
Why no mention of Jay Gould or his nemisis, Cornelius "The Commodore" Vanderbilt (yeah Vanderbilt Commodores)
These guys were your railroad tycoons and stock market players of the post Civil War era.
What about:
(1) Soros's short on the British Pound netting him $1 Billion in a day in 1992?
(2) Paulson's $15 Billion profit shorting sub-prime?
(3) Bernard Baruch's "exit" from the 1929 stock market after a "discussion" with his shoe shine boy?
(4) Jay Gould's 1869 gold "trade" resulting in all kinds of chaos?
(5) Nathan Rothschild's "trade" on British government bonds on insider information that the French had lost the battle of waterloo.
And many many more to think about Im sure.
SP500 downleg expected to continue next week onwards.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis
book written by / published by Kyle Bass ???