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Presenting Anthony Polini's Bank Of America Price Target Accuracy Track Record

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today CNBC had to dig very, very deep to find a C-grade sellside analyst willing to stick his neck out and defend Bank of America. They ended up picking Raymond James' Anthony Polini. Why would Polini go out on a limb saying that Bank of America can exist for 2 years without incremental funding, and that all fears that the bank is undercapitalized are overblown? Well, as the chart below shows, he has been consistently wrong on the bank for the past 3 years, and his average error to the true stock price is about... 50%. On the chart below, the white line is his Price Target recommendation. As for the green square, it is self-explanatory. Anyone who listened to Polini over the past two years, has lost about 80%. But this time it is different. We promise. So, to answer our rhetorical question: one can not lose any credibility, if one never had any to begin with.

 

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Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:17 | 1594886 unky
unky's picture

Off Topic: What is going on with Gold and Silver? Gold down $70 in few minutes?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:19 | 1594893 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Liquidations and rising stops hit.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:20 | 1594907 NewThor
NewThor's picture

Tyler are you Batman or Julian Assange's brother?

you can only pick one.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:23 | 1594920 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Batman.

He looks really hot in tights and a cape (or so i have heard).

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:27 | 1594937 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

And he and Marla live in a cave.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:41 | 1595023 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

I miss Marla

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:25 | 1594932 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I see Tyler as "the Joker" as played by Heath Ledger. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:29 | 1594952 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Gold always had to come down before the QE3 announcement.

Let me guess, the cartel was behind the move upwards since Wednesday last week. They bought tons of futures, only then to have a firesale by Monday, escalating through to the next COT report timeframe, which means "selling" will probably stop around Thursday. This leaves COT reports relatively neutral from the perspective of the commercials.

That will then leave gold to whip back up a considerable amount on Friday as QE3 is announced.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:34 | 1594972 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

+ Options expiry on friday.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:48 | 1595062 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

How much worse is Polini than the mass of Wall Street's sell side??? Look at broker accuracy to determine if you would have made more following broker recommendations or shortng said recommendations!

http://boombustblog.com/BoomBustBlog/Did-Reggie-Middleton-a-Blogger-at-BoomBustBlog-Best-Wall-Streets-Best-of-the-Best.html

Thu, 08/25/2011 - 00:33 | 1598159 NewThor
NewThor's picture

REGGIE! REGGIE! REGGIE!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:19 | 1594897 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'No QE3' has been leaked I bet.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 11:16 | 1595191 Rikki-Tikki-Tavi
Rikki-Tikki-Tavi's picture

Agree, USD also getting stronger.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:19 | 1594898 NewThor
NewThor's picture

I don't know.

No QE3 should be good for gold and silver.

Yes QE3 should be good for gold and silver.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:24 | 1594926 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'No QE SHOULD be -2,000 instantly from the DOW....'no QE' does not mean we've printed less fiat.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:32 | 1594960 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

I would think 'no QE' would also be US$ positive but the DXY is currently 73.74   

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:43 | 1595033 OuaisBla
OuaisBla's picture

Their is lots of divergence on the DXY right now. So Consolidation phase near the bottom might be close to be done. IMO

 

Then next is an epic fall (stop loss being hit)  or an epic rally (short covering) for the green back. I'm inclined for and epic rally. 78 maybe. The FED might sell expose themself on the longer term of the yield curve to "support" the economy and less on the short end "to help reduce inflation expectation." Of course if that is the case then no QE3.

 

The up tick at 76on the DXY few weeks ago out of the BB was impressive. "No QE3" might habe been leaked back then IMO. The QE3 drama was well played by institutional player IMO.

The S&P Downgrade was timely if you ask me. And merely a reason to unload their bullish bets, something that was planned few months back.

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:19 | 1594901 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

Roubini dancing with joy...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:21 | 1594912 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Equity pumpmonkeys wont be dancing with joy Friday when they realize theyre locked in a burning building.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:38 | 1594996 Seer
Seer's picture

Is there anything more negative than DEAD?  I mean, the guy has to be dancing on his own grave if he's dancing.  He'd claimed that gold MIGHT go to $1,100/oz but never $1,200/oz.

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:37 | 1597531 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

NEVER is such a long time, I only use the word when I'm being facetious!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:21 | 1594909 Gunther
Gunther's picture

Options expiration tomorrow.

Banks do not like to pay out theit loosing bets.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:23 | 1594922 They_Live
They_Live's picture

Freegold genesis?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:26 | 1594935 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Just take the opportunity to buy silver. Gold should have a larger pull back once Paulson has to start liquidating gld to meet redemptions.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:18 | 1594891 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Meanwhile, equities continue to euphorically price-in QE7 apparently...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:18 | 1594892 working class dog
working class dog's picture

asia increasd gold margins

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:19 | 1594896 Catullus
Catullus's picture

I heard Ogolfer is hiring. Hahaha.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:19 | 1594899 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Polini will be "King for a Day" (precisely today), until his followers wake up in a pool of blood and vomit a short time from now. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:19 | 1594902 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

The amount of time CNBC seems to be dedicating to defend BAC should in and of itself be substantial cause for concern about the viability and solvency of BAC.

I feel that they have confirmed that all the rumors are in fact true.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:29 | 1594938 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Has Cramer made a "BUY BAC" call yet?  Or does he just think it is "safe to keep money in BAC"?   Nuances, nuances.   

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 15:39 | 1596317 Western
Western's picture

Excellent memory. Even after Cramer exposed himself as a tool used to destroy retail investors, he still is looked up to like a messiah.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:41 | 1595020 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

If BAC goes down it could well take the entire fraud which is the US financial system with it.

It's not a simple matter of solvency, it is a question of how far you can bend the legal system before it snaps.

The fuckers are sweating on this one, lying awake at night questioning whether the game is up.  But let's be really clear about one thing - none of them wants to fix this, what they want is to pretend it will just go away, so they can get back to sucking blood out of the system for just a bit longer...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:54 | 1595095 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Second Rule of Zombieland: Double Tap.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:46 | 1595049 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Wouldn't it be funny if the guy who dead dropped Perry with his "I'm from BofA, We'll help you" spiel went up to Moynihan in a breakfast lobby-ist's party and said the same thing :

"I'm from B of A we can help you..."

Lol, self fulfilling philosophy personified. 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:49 | 1594903 Nate H
Nate H's picture

Thanks Tyler - these are so classic.  These high paid analysts are incredibly articulate, but have huge self-deception modules that erase their prior record. Such modules are adaptive - if we wallowed in our own bad calls, we'd never be able to motivate when we wake up. But sell side wall st has more than their share...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:20 | 1594905 PaulsMom
PaulsMom's picture

While you're at it, take a look at RX Bove's record. The same chart, but with higher targets..

 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:20 | 1594906 working class dog
working class dog's picture

contrary to Polini, cramer said he was disappointed in BAC the other night, so Cramers buy signal from god should offset Polini cheerleading. SO BAC is sideways.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:21 | 1594910 kahunabear
kahunabear's picture

What a freakin' hack this guy is.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:21 | 1594911 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

From June 2009 when BAC was trading at $6.87:

“I’ve been following banks for more than 20 years and I’ve never seen a company come out of a recession with so much core earnings power and so much strength,” Polini told CNBC.

“Bank of America

looks like an easy double in a year and it looks like a triple in 2 years from this level.”

And he got bonused on this great great predication.

Sell side analysts: adding value since never.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:53 | 1595622 AbandonShip
AbandonShip's picture

Why do they even talk on CNBS?  They should just show charts like Tyler's above and it would be more enlightening than anything their anchors or guests could come up with.  Oh and leave the pretty girls on, but they can't talk either.  C'mon Comcast, DO IT!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:21 | 1594913 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Agreed, if there was a 4th tier, RJ would definitely fit right in.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:21 | 1594916 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

bubblevision will be interviewing winos down at the park next.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:22 | 1594918 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Meredith Whitney and Pressprich from Brain Charles defended them on bloomberg this morning too, along the lines of - not in need of more capital and the move in the stock was shocking etc.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:28 | 1594945 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

Whitney was almost bullish on the banks this morning

has she gone to the dark side (she did get  invited back to Jacks hole maybe that was the cost of admission)

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/08/24/meredith-whitney-backs-bank-of-ame...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:23 | 1594921 orca
orca's picture

Well, I have gone long 6,49. The only thing more fun than being right on a good share is being right on a bad share. GM and FNM and C etc also doubled and tripled before their wipe-out, purely on false rumours and short covering. So I salute you tony Polini, good call!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:43 | 1595036 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Long BAC, short GLD - it's like swimming in shit to find a diamond ring...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:24 | 1594928 pendragon
pendragon's picture

a proper barrel scraping operation

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:25 | 1594931 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Polini is probably right.  Hell if JP Morgue-n can make $93million risk free on $111 billion from Fed why can't BAC?

Free money...what could go wrong?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:27 | 1594936 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Which bank will be forced by the Fed to buy BAC?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:34 | 1594967 Catullus
Catullus's picture

JPM. Its already done

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:28 | 1594947 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

 

Today is "Fire Extinguisher Day" over at jsmineset.com.

David Duvall had to drag the burning fax machine out into the parking lot in order to hose it down.

Biggest 2 day point decline in GLD history.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:39 | 1595006 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

yes that two day decline must certainly be painful for those that rode the 1000 day climb. painful...yet...not nearly as painful as holding BAC now is it?

Let's review the history of gold price shall we?

September 1999: Gold @ $253
August 22 2011: Gold @ $1917
August 24 2011: Gold @ $1779

yes...painful indeed. idiot.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:51 | 1595076 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

You mean the same Jim Sinclair that has been telling you to expect $100 swings in both directions when things start to get out of control?  

Somehow I doubt he's crying himself to sleep.  Probably enjoying time with his flock instead.  How's your 100% all in portfolio been doing the last two months?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:42 | 1597554 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Curiously, the SEC had some paper shredders burst into flame.  Coincidence?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:32 | 1594958 Fazzie
Fazzie's picture

OT, Can sombody give me a clue why I cant get current news from ZH? The page always comes up with old news right now if I use any search engine and simply click on the ZH search result home page link, it takes me to 8/21 and today is 8/24. Never had any trouble before, TIA for any help.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:35 | 1594977 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I replied to your other post.  Clear your cache, delete cookies and return.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:38 | 1594994 Aguadulce
Aguadulce's picture

I think someone said y/d you have to clear your browser cache.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:44 | 1595044 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

Too many cookies from porn surfing.  Empty the cache and it should be fine....

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:55 | 1595102 citta vritti
citta vritti's picture

or, if your emptying it anyway, why not just send me your cash?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 11:16 | 1595188 Fazzie
Fazzie's picture

 Thanks everyone, I ran crap cleaner and all is well. Over a gig of crap removed. Someone must be sneaking on my computer and surfing porn! Im shocked,I say shocked by this!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:44 | 1597562 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Another Windoze™ User saved from their own silliness...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 11:10 | 1595165 Kayman
Kayman's picture

 it takes me to 8/21 and today is 8/24. Never had any trouble before

It's the new fiscal plan.  Turn the clock back to the good old days.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 11:12 | 1595175 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Google Chrome kept doing that to me, regardless of how often I cleared the cache, etc. So since the upcoming version 7 is supposed to fix the memory issues, I've gone back to trusty old Firefox.

/Internet Explorer 9? Fuck me, that's a horrible browser.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:33 | 1594963 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Last shorts seem to have been squeezed in gold last night. They provided a floor under the market for the last couple of days.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:34 | 1594969 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

FROM NPR May 2011

 

 by Jacob Goldstein and David Kestenbaum

Gold is in a bubble...................... a 4,000 year old bubble

is gold in a bubble? We asked Tim Harford, an economist and author. Here's what he said:

Gold is a tricky one, and here's why. ... bubbles should be defined in terms of fundamental values. For the price of corporate stock, we should be looking at future profits, and you need to make your best judgment for what that should be. But ... it's just not clear what the fundamental value of gold is. It's worth something because people have always thought it's worth something. And that's really weird, because what it tells you is gold is in a 4,000-year-old bubble. And if it's lasted 4,000 years, maybe it will last another 4,000 years. Who am I to say

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:35 | 1594974 digalert
digalert's picture

C'mon CNBS!

 

Just the other day Jim buybuybuy Cramer had an epiphony and said "get out of banks and tech"

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:37 | 1594987 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Just yesterday he was screaming to buy gold too...

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:39 | 1595007 rsi1
rsi1's picture

lol! Good one ZH!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:41 | 1595027 adr
adr's picture

CNBC's only mandate is to convince sheep to part with their money and leave them as the bag holders.

TPTB never thought it would take running crap stocks up to triple digits to entice them to buy in. They just can't figure out what is wrong with people when they see stocks more than double between January and May. THAT IS SUPPOSED TO BE A BUY SIGNAL. Instead sheep removed billions from funds.

NBC managment must be getting PO'd at Cramer since it seems he can no longer entice the sheep to wander blindly into the wolves den.

But no we should expect Netflix to go to $500 and LULU to hit $250. If Apple can have a bigger market cap than Exxon then LULU with a $50 billion cap should just be par for the course.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:47 | 1595056 Surly Bear
Surly Bear's picture

...his average error to the true stock price is about... 50%

Well, fuck, even an I could do that. :-/ 

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:53 | 1595091 AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

I smell a conspiracy.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 10:58 | 1595113 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Next up to take on the story planting ZH...Dick Bove.  He is on deck at the BlowHorn.  I can hardly wait.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 11:03 | 1595137 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Was a man named Pollini

Who liked his picks all peach and Keeney

Risking the flak

He pumped up the BAC

And called it the new houdini

Vivek

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/24/precursor-03-bottom-falling-out-still-still-and-a-gander/

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 11:23 | 1595216 Clark80
Clark80's picture

Of the 25 stocks Polini follows 2 are "Market Perform"; 10 are "Outperform" and the rest are "Strong Buy". Apparently his keyboard is missing the "SELL" key.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 20:47 | 1597581 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

It's to the left of the "Any" key, easily overlooked! :>D

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 11:27 | 1595239 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

WHAT THE FUCK ELSE IS HE SUPPOSE TO SAY? THE TRUTH? ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME???

 

HE IS NOT AN INBECILE BUT A TERRIBLE LIAR AND A DICK SUCKER(NO OFFENSE TO THOSE WHO ARE)...HE HAS TO ASS KISS TO KEEP HIS JOB....HEADS HE WINS...TAILS WE LOSE.......

 

YOU WANT THE TRUTH? YOU CANT HANDLE THE TRUTH!

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 11:34 | 1595273 prophet
prophet's picture

WE DON'T GIVE YOU ENOUGH INFORMATION TO THINK.  JUST DO WHAT YOU ARE TOLD.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 11:31 | 1595240 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Just cool air coming from JH this year.. lasy yr pm.s were off to the races.. NO QE co ming.  The stock junkies won,t be too happy..

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 11:32 | 1595267 prophet
prophet's picture

Is the biosphere a "bubble"?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 11:34 | 1595275 mendigo
mendigo's picture

give the guy some credit

polini is tracking the trend pretty well - slight bullish offset and lag in response to yesterdays news

about as usefull as any analyst

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 11:35 | 1595278 indio007
indio007's picture

Someone really needs to start the Lamestream Media Talking Head Financial Expert Shorting ETF.

I'd buy it and retire in short order.

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 12:51 | 1595616 drswhaley
drswhaley's picture

Any reason you did not save this for your Fri afternoon comedy segment?

Wed, 08/24/2011 - 14:00 | 1595933 Havana White
Havana White's picture

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