Presenting Anthony Polini's Bank Of America Price Target Accuracy Track Record

Tyler Durden's picture

Today CNBC had to dig very, very deep to find a C-grade sellside analyst willing to stick his neck out and defend Bank of America. They ended up picking Raymond James' Anthony Polini. Why would Polini go out on a limb saying that Bank of America can exist for 2 years without incremental funding, and that all fears that the bank is undercapitalized are overblown? Well, as the chart below shows, he has been consistently wrong on the bank for the past 3 years, and his average error to the true stock price is about... 50%. On the chart below, the white line is his Price Target recommendation. As for the green square, it is self-explanatory. Anyone who listened to Polini over the past two years, has lost about 80%. But this time it is different. We promise. So, to answer our rhetorical question: one can not lose any credibility, if one never had any to begin with.

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unky's picture

Off Topic: What is going on with Gold and Silver? Gold down $70 in few minutes?

Tyler Durden's picture

Liquidations and rising stops hit.

NewThor's picture

Tyler are you Batman or Julian Assange's brother?

you can only pick one.

lizzy36's picture

Batman.

He looks really hot in tights and a cape (or so i have heard).

slaughterer's picture

I see Tyler as "the Joker" as played by Heath Ledger. 

EscapeKey's picture

Gold always had to come down before the QE3 announcement.

Let me guess, the cartel was behind the move upwards since Wednesday last week. They bought tons of futures, only then to have a firesale by Monday, escalating through to the next COT report timeframe, which means "selling" will probably stop around Thursday. This leaves COT reports relatively neutral from the perspective of the commercials.

That will then leave gold to whip back up a considerable amount on Friday as QE3 is announced.

Reggie Middleton's picture

How much worse is Polini than the mass of Wall Street's sell side??? Look at broker accuracy to determine if you would have made more following broker recommendations or shortng said recommendations!

http://boombustblog.com/BoomBustBlog/Did-Reggie-Middleton-a-Blogger-at-BoomBustBlog-Best-Wall-Streets-Best-of-the-Best.html

SheepDog-One's picture

'No QE3' has been leaked I bet.

Rikki-Tikki-Tavi's picture

Agree, USD also getting stronger.

NewThor's picture

I don't know.

No QE3 should be good for gold and silver.

Yes QE3 should be good for gold and silver.

SheepDog-One's picture

'No QE SHOULD be -2,000 instantly from the DOW....'no QE' does not mean we've printed less fiat.

Vincent Vega's picture

I would think 'no QE' would also be US$ positive but the DXY is currently 73.74   

OuaisBla's picture

Their is lots of divergence on the DXY right now. So Consolidation phase near the bottom might be close to be done. IMO

 

Then next is an epic fall (stop loss being hit)  or an epic rally (short covering) for the green back. I'm inclined for and epic rally. 78 maybe. The FED might sell expose themself on the longer term of the yield curve to "support" the economy and less on the short end "to help reduce inflation expectation." Of course if that is the case then no QE3.

 

The up tick at 76on the DXY few weeks ago out of the BB was impressive. "No QE3" might habe been leaked back then IMO. The QE3 drama was well played by institutional player IMO.

The S&P Downgrade was timely if you ask me. And merely a reason to unload their bullish bets, something that was planned few months back.

 

doomandbloom's picture

Roubini dancing with joy...

SheepDog-One's picture

Equity pumpmonkeys wont be dancing with joy Friday when they realize theyre locked in a burning building.

Seer's picture

Is there anything more negative than DEAD?  I mean, the guy has to be dancing on his own grave if he's dancing.  He'd claimed that gold MIGHT go to $1,100/oz but never $1,200/oz.

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right...

StychoKiller's picture

NEVER is such a long time, I only use the word when I'm being facetious!

Gunther's picture

Options expiration tomorrow.

Banks do not like to pay out theit loosing bets.

Dr. Engali's picture

Just take the opportunity to buy silver. Gold should have a larger pull back once Paulson has to start liquidating gld to meet redemptions.

SheepDog-One's picture

Meanwhile, equities continue to euphorically price-in QE7 apparently...

working class dog's picture

asia increasd gold margins

Catullus's picture

I heard Ogolfer is hiring. Hahaha.

slaughterer's picture

Polini will be "King for a Day" (precisely today), until his followers wake up in a pool of blood and vomit a short time from now. 

alien-IQ's picture

The amount of time CNBC seems to be dedicating to defend BAC should in and of itself be substantial cause for concern about the viability and solvency of BAC.

I feel that they have confirmed that all the rumors are in fact true.

slaughterer's picture

Has Cramer made a "BUY BAC" call yet?  Or does he just think it is "safe to keep money in BAC"?   Nuances, nuances.   

Western's picture

Excellent memory. Even after Cramer exposed himself as a tool used to destroy retail investors, he still is looked up to like a messiah.

A Man without Qualities's picture

If BAC goes down it could well take the entire fraud which is the US financial system with it.

It's not a simple matter of solvency, it is a question of how far you can bend the legal system before it snaps.

The fuckers are sweating on this one, lying awake at night questioning whether the game is up.  But let's be really clear about one thing - none of them wants to fix this, what they want is to pretend it will just go away, so they can get back to sucking blood out of the system for just a bit longer...

alien-IQ's picture

Second Rule of Zombieland: Double Tap.

falak pema's picture

Wouldn't it be funny if the guy who dead dropped Perry with his "I'm from BofA, We'll help you" spiel went up to Moynihan in a breakfast lobby-ist's party and said the same thing :

"I'm from B of A we can help you..."

Lol, self fulfilling philosophy personified. 

Nate H's picture

Thanks Tyler - these are so classic.  These high paid analysts are incredibly articulate, but have huge self-deception modules that erase their prior record. Such modules are adaptive - if we wallowed in our own bad calls, we'd never be able to motivate when we wake up. But sell side wall st has more than their share...

PaulsMom's picture

While you're at it, take a look at RX Bove's record. The same chart, but with higher targets..

 

working class dog's picture

contrary to Polini, cramer said he was disappointed in BAC the other night, so Cramers buy signal from god should offset Polini cheerleading. SO BAC is sideways.

kahunabear's picture

What a freakin' hack this guy is.

lizzy36's picture

From June 2009 when BAC was trading at $6.87:

“I’ve been following banks for more than 20 years and I’ve never seen a company come out of a recession with so much core earnings power and so much strength,” Polini told CNBC.

“Bank of America

looks like an easy double in a year and it looks like a triple in 2 years from this level.”

And he got bonused on this great great predication.

Sell side analysts: adding value since never.

AbandonShip's picture

Why do they even talk on CNBS?  They should just show charts like Tyler's above and it would be more enlightening than anything their anchors or guests could come up with.  Oh and leave the pretty girls on, but they can't talk either.  C'mon Comcast, DO IT!

ZeroPower's picture

Agreed, if there was a 4th tier, RJ would definitely fit right in.

buzzsaw99's picture

bubblevision will be interviewing winos down at the park next.

scratch_and_sniff's picture

Meredith Whitney and Pressprich from Brain Charles defended them on bloomberg this morning too, along the lines of - not in need of more capital and the move in the stock was shocking etc.

anynonmous's picture

Whitney was almost bullish on the banks this morning

has she gone to the dark side (she did get  invited back to Jacks hole maybe that was the cost of admission)

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/08/24/meredith-whitney-backs-bank-of-ame...

orca's picture

Well, I have gone long 6,49. The only thing more fun than being right on a good share is being right on a bad share. GM and FNM and C etc also doubled and tripled before their wipe-out, purely on false rumours and short covering. So I salute you tony Polini, good call!

A Man without Qualities's picture

Long BAC, short GLD - it's like swimming in shit to find a diamond ring...

pendragon's picture

a proper barrel scraping operation

Temporalist's picture

Polini is probably right.  Hell if JP Morgue-n can make $93million risk free on $111 billion from Fed why can't BAC?

Free money...what could go wrong?

PulauHantu29's picture

Which bank will be forced by the Fed to buy BAC?