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Presenting The Biggest Tradeoff Of A Surging Stock Market
Something funny happened on the road to Dow Jones 13,000 - the car ran out of gas, and the driver noticed what the latest and (literally) greatest price of unleaded is...
and perhaps in even clearer language...
Despite all the appearance of wealth creation in the US equity markets, the S&P buys 10% fewer gallons of gas for your car than its average since the MAR09 lows (and 20% fewer than its pre-QE1 peak) with the last few weeks of action also removing almost 10% of purchasing power even as stocks soared...
Charts: Bloomberg
(h/t Omid Malekan)
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The Rep primary season has gotten in much lower voter turnout than the last election cycle. Looks like it's Obama again. At least if you've invested in guns and bullets you'll have something rising in value.
For the love of geeks everywhere, please let The Donald get back into the race. Debates are already my favorite reality tv.
The Donald really is the gift that keeps on giving.
See any signs sayin' 'Will Sell Your House for Food' yet?
Yah, It was Big and Clear.
As per John Williams' Shadow Stats, real unemployment is somewhere between 22% and 24%. The headline U3 "official" figure is at 9%. So I'm willing to bet that real white unemployment is at ~18% and real black unemployment is at ~33%. I bet that if you included individuals in the justice/prison system, the black male unemployment rate would be over 50%.
water powered cars, bitchez
/sarc
You just need to make sure that the water comes from the Gulf of Mexico! ;)
or from around Honshu.
Every time the economy even smells like it might be getting better the price of gas goes up. I have said since 08' that if the economy recovers I will not be able to afford the gas.
$4-5 is going to just kill some marginal $35k/yr commuters.
$5 gas and nothing gets delivered.
Red is the new black and Oil price is the new fed funds rate.
"roadhazard"...
You've been kidding yourself. perhaps, just a sign of desperation, on your part.
MY MAIN MAN, has a unique gift of smell, furthermore, ain't no two-ways about it...NOT EVEN, A WHIFF, of recovery has he posted!!
QUIT HOPING AND PREPARE FOR THE WORSE...it's coming!
The stock market is not supposed to correlate with oil. It's supposed to move inversely. Tragic joke of a market.
Staycations bitchez!
My staycation is at the local watering hole.
I haven't left my cave in months. Who else is going to guard the ammo, food and water?
Permanent staycation.
maybe if the MSM told everyone gasoline is a barbaric relic people would not want it. price would come down. it works for people that want cheaper gold.
Yeah you can't eat gasoline. You can't pay for stuff with gasoline. So what use is it? /snarky sarc
So now that Greece is solved do we move on with the next one? We'll do one at a time. Everytime something bad happens the market stalls. When they come out with good news it rallies. By the time we get done with the entire EU the DOW really will be at 36k. LMAO.
On a serious front isn't this shaping up like 2008? How high can gas go before this whole POS crashes? It's not sustainable and everyone knows it. Lipstick prices should be outrageous right now.
it's only a matter of time before Escorts up their rates for outcalls. That's when Wall Street will panic.
Oil above 106 now, looks like it could touch 115 this week.
And then.....?
Black Diamond! Maybe two.
Just hit market closing time. I checked the comments here before looking to see if the market was up or down. My guess from reading the comments that stocks went up and gold moved up slightly.
Now I will check. I was moderately wrong.
Conclusion: reading comments on ZH do not necessarily equate to booking profits. But you have great rating on the laugh meter.
Not from this comment in particular. Just saying.
Oh Dear, another "profit-taker"!
Did you not put on the 40% up Whitney Tilson - NETFLIX and ZNGA dump triple-play?
You peed on your shoe.
"Yo Pumpy, have ya' seen Dumpy yet?"
"No, but gettin' ready, already!"
TANK IT BITCHEZ!
Iran attack has been cancelled.
China showed them they have hacker-recorded logs of all the MERS transfers they've been denyin' like a baby-daddy on Mon-tel.
Short US treasurys, it's time.
http://theimperatore.blogspot.com/
Not until after Europe goes belly up.
I am an eternal bear, but we have to face the facts, yields are going higher, Europe or not :)
Or the Fed and Treasury print and sell debt until there is no tomorrow.
In the meantime, oil goes to the moon, people watch in awe as they are totally priced out of the gold market, the gold market that could not go any higher last year, and Grandma wonders if she has to start eating cat food for every meal.
Long Cat food then :)
I'd rather eat the cat.
Hahaha, I wanna eat your cat.
Here kitty, kitty....
Gulf of Mexico shrimp and crab have to go somewhere.
top ramen, it's the new cat food. less than 20 cents per package.
Grampas across America are pulling a Dangerfield and living like they're back in college no doubt!
Can someone create analysis over the last 6 months or so showing how much of the S&P's gains have come from overnight, first 2 hours / 2nd two hours / final 15 minutes etc.
my bet is on a large portion from overnight.
..... Eye ball says 70% easy.
Around 4am eastern they jam the futures on Euro bailout agreement and US economic optimism, then of course the last 20 minute meltup during market hours on more bullish Euro news rumors, followed by the futures bouncing up again on official gubberment CNBC program "script."
How much does it cost to install a single pump gas station in the front yard?
Including the bribe to be declared "properly zoned" to contain known "hazardous materials" on short notice?
Please state the name of your representative and senator into the flower.
Self sustainability is a suspicious activity. You are a terrorist. I'm going to have to report you.
Gold is manipulated down by the cartel of Big Banks and Central Banks
Oil is manipulated up by the huge global oil monopolies (just ask that twitching, stuttering scumbag Wank Paulson who's an expert at flogging paper oil to rig prices: a criminal prerequisite for a top job at Goldmans and US Treasury)
The CBs need to use gold as their leveage for their Fiat Ponzi. They hold gold as a reserve, make it loaned, spin the cash as assets, and balance their books. When you say manipulated, you mean, gold is made to stay within a range where it balances the CBs books, but does not go any higher, for else then everybody would want it.
Interesting. I'm buying physical Gas from now on.
And what's going on with Methane? Are my farts worth more?
They will be if Al Gore has his way.
Gore, what a Green House Gas Bag.
Although I do believe in global warming and science and that the earth is somewhat more than 5,000 year old.
I liked Four Easy Pieces as much as anybody, but who says global warming climate change is a science? I draw the line where it doesn't matter other than the fact that we need to stop polluting for pollutings sake. We need to care for the earth because it is all we have.
finally! someone understands.. nobody wants to drink gasoline, yet we surround our lives with it. the stuff is poison.
Been neglecting the news lately Alex?
http://althouse.blogspot.com/2012/02/because-of-importance-of-clarity-in.html
Lying liars..
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/08/glaciers-mountains no melting, oooh no.. Himalayas
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2011GL050207.shtml same Antartica
And on and on the lies go but they only work becasue folks internalize the bits they like and never follow up to make sure they don't continue to believe bullshit..
so, you talk about scientists lying and then proceed to link 3 stories where scientists have revised estimates based on new information, or openly admitted using information garnered dishonestly.
Honest inquiry in science always produces changes in the data,precisely because that is how science works. To categorize this as bullshit is somewhat...hypocritical...and negates any valid points you may have been trying to make.
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/02/peter-gleick-confesses-to-obtaining-heartland-documents-under-false-pretenses/253395/
"We are all going to die as the oceans rise and rage around us" " The heat wil lbe tremendous and the Sahara will swallow Europe" "The Himalayas will melt completely within 30 years" says the Indian railroad engineer head of IPCC...
Climategate, Al Gore, the consensus in Science, really...
Ahh wait a second we are going to revise that a bit.. No one believes the fucking lies anymore asshole.. You and climate science can fuck off..
And do tell Alex what your 'scientific' beliefs are concerning the crocodiles, dinosaurs, tropical plants etc. that flourished in the Arctic region in the near and far past....also lots of info out there on the difference in the age of the Earth and the 'Creation' events which were witnessed by our forebears, for instance
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OH7lrjixaNA&feature=related
Yeah, global warming is real but it won't be the disaster that the left thinks it will be. World government would be a much bigger disaster.
Let's compare shall we...the last time the Dow was above 13,000 was 20 May 2008 (Truly the days of WHINE & ROSE')
What's different?
20 May 2008 21 Feb 2012
Good leg work...
Now compute the ratio of Brent to RBOB (noting where RBOB is delivered)....
Are you surprised?
Also, if you want to play refinery games, take account of where the refineries are/were...
Hint, they are not where one can take advantage of the WTI-Brent spread...
While you are at, could you post the EURUSD and Heating oil contracts for those dates??
Edit:
HO contract is currently $3.23..... in May of 08 it was about ~$3.30
Working on it Flakmeister....I am kinda a newbie but geekie enough to give it a try...thanks for the refinery games insight...Post back in a few -
EUR/USD = 1.5625 - 20-May-2008
1.3228 - 21-Feb-2012
Heating Oil Spot Prices: New York No. 2 - FOB, (USD/gal) = $3.76 - 20-May-2008
$ $3.1889 21-Feb-2012
Heating Oil Spot Prices: Gulf Coast No. 2 - FOB, (C per gal) $372.75 (20-May-2008)-This series has been discontinued - 28Sept2010 - To your point about refinery location -
Brent to RBOB - 38.84567901234568 - 20-May-2008
Brent to RBOB - 39.48208469055375 - 21-Feb-2012
Gasoline Spot Prices: New York No. 2 Conventional - FOB, (C per gal)-20-May-2008-$3.14
Gasoline Spot Prices: Gulf Coast Conventional - FOB, (C per gal)- 20-May-2008-$3.15
Gasoline Spot Prices: Los Angeles Conventional - FOB, (C per gal) - 20-May-2008-$3.3049
Gasoline Spot Prices: ARA Conventional - FOB, (C per gal)- - 20-May-2008-$3.0436
Gasoline Spot Prices: Gulf Coast Reformulated Regular - FOB, (C per gal) - 20-May-2008 - $3.3013
Dupe Post
Santorum worships Satan:
http://drudgereport.com/flash3s.htm
Santorum is a putz. How can anyone take that douchebag seriously?
"The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it" Proverbs 27:12
Yeah, ....when you look at the candidates it sure looks like the Oligarchy wants four more years just like the last. Free for all in the "Markets" on a wide open expense account.
What? Me Worry?
sick as a dog
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P20i0nMKy58
Since 1972, IBM has raised it sales from $10 billion to $120 billion.
A factor of 12. Unfortunately the price of a barrel of oil has gone from $2.50 to $105.
A factor of 42. Everyone still considers IBM as widely successful over those years...
...and gold has gone from $35 to $1760/oz. A factor of 50.
42? Oh fucking shit!
Aren't you ZH'ers tired of always being wrong? I agree the mkt is insane but jeez, you guys are the worst with your headlines.
When has ZH been wrong?
Thing is, Gas prices are so cheap in the U.S
The average price of gas in the U.K is $24.30 a gallon.
The S&P would be significantly lower when priced in British "petrol".
It's cheaper for me to pay the costs of buying, insuring and taxing a small engined 2nd car to use for commuting, rather using my main car which has now been reduced to Weekend/summer use.
How many F-350s are there in the UK?
Probably enough to count on 2 hands.
At a recent car show, a punter had a 1968 Charger R/T which had arrived on a trailer. Someone asked him to start the engine so they could hear it.
He refused unless they covered the petrol/gas costs.
I think he was kidding, but the look on his face suggested he may not have been!
A big Holley double pump (Or a 6 pack) will consume half a gallon easily quickly.
I know mine did.
$24.30....drink much?
at 140p per litre. x 3.79 (litres to gallons) x 1.58 (conversion rate)= $8.38
Still a ton but put it in perspective
Indeed that's right. Petrol 'gas' in Europe would tend to be around US $7 - $10 per gallon, converted from our litres and via the varying exchange rates. I laughed at that US $24 figure for the UK. Even the nutty Brit gov't doesn't go that far with their taxes.
Petrol and diesel have long been hugely more expensive here than the US or Canada. The high prices have helped Europe to develop along much more sustainable lines, much better public transport, many fewer kilometres of 'commuting' to work. As a result, there is little complaining about petrol pricing, despite being 2x or 3x what Americans have been paying.
Yet people here love their cars, despite paying over what Americans would call 'a hundred bucks' to fill up a small fuel tank. - But cars here are more 'toys', and we tend to own them for many more years given how much more lightly they are driven.
Even millionaires here sometimes buy small cars, a VW Golf or similar. Rich people here often take lower profiles. Visiting Americans sometimes think we are 'poor' because the average car size is smaller, ha!
Just came back to revisit having realised the error of my calculation.... though the sharp eyed have already spotted it.
No idea how I came up with that figure, though I did calculate at the British 4.54 litres in a gallon. But even then it still doesn't add up. Something to do with the 2 hours sleep the night before I'd imagine.
They can pump liquidity. They can mess with balance sheets. They can do the magic hoopla adjustment. They can dream up alot of crock in a day. They're financial wizards and bankers.
Demand is falling off a cliff. Not just in Greece. Retail numbers are fucking ugly. There's no volume on Wall Street and there's no volume on Main Street.
Austerity here, economic uncertainty there and soon you have collapse.
Oh my friend, you need to watch Kudlow (sarc)! Demand is UP, UP, UP. Emerging markets are HOT! HIgher oil....that won't hurt stocks, NO, NO, NO. And the $....the lower $ is good for stocks..... but if the $ rallies.....that is good for stocks too! And the Fed..... their low rates are good. But if inflation picks up and they have to raise rates? Oh, that'll be so super good for stocks!
Yes, all is rosey my friend....just ask Larry K! Just BUY, BUY, BUY!
Shit is fucking hot here today.
That is all.
Said inside of Fukushima Diatchi?
O.K. I'll add another dumbass response ---------------- AMERICA!!! HELL YEAH!!!!
Yeah right, those friggin' latin and arab immigrants are depleting "our" oil that we happened to import from Mexico, Venezuela, Kuwait and Iraq.
My grandad had big canteloupe farms in AZ. He only hired wetbacks. Truthfully I couldn't keep up with them when I was 15 years old. They literally can have that job. I don't personally know any white person that could do that. Throw a gunny sack over your shoulder, bend over and throw them in the sack till it's full, probably at least 80lbs or so, and work in fields hundreds of feet long in 100 degree weather in the sun all day long. Yeah uh huh.........you go ahead and try that for $6hr. Let me know how it works out.
Shit just got REAL!
(It didn't really, I just wanted to say that.)
If only there was a solution to higher oil prices.....something simple......like executing the price manipulators and speculators that are being given free reign to do what they please while their facilitators are chanting hourly on every TV station that higher prices are coming automatically triggering short-term demand while everyone starts filling their tanks every day as they ratchet up the prices simultaneously. Get the crooked hedgefunds and security firms out of the oil patch. Problem solved.
Wait, wait I got it....
People who can't afford to be in stocks are getting raped by gas prices because they have no gain to offset the loss.
Exxon can be the huge drop off in demand it's easy, just have your traders lose 500 million dollars this year in the crude market to run up the crude price, and than make 2 billion in income off of the higher gasoline prices, and lets not leave out the gubbament sacks of shit payroll windfall due to all that sales tax from higher gasoline prices. I am starting to feel like one of those unemployed greek side walk squatters that the 1% say dont exist.
Eat shit and die banksters, and monopolists.
Saying that assets "buy" other assets is meaningless. Only fiat money buys anything in this world. A situation the oligarchs would rather have you forget.
As the world goes broke, the price of all of these assets will fall, as they are liquidated to pay for stuff that matters, like fuel. In the process, the value of fiat money goes up.
Even as the value of fiat money goes up, it will be printed to oblivion, rendering it, too, worthless. Deflation followed by hyperinflation.
The winner: gold. But it will be a pyrrhic victory, indeed. That's the unfortunate, inescapable truth of our situation.
Does that include dividends?
risk off on China:
despite fudgy headline
That is an interesting point someone brought up about what gas does for us in terms of labor. I pretty much suspect we'll all die without it. And much higher prices will start killing us off. Seriously. How many people can self sustain? And those that can everyone around them knows what they have. Ok.....went a bit extreme here but who knows. Looking at what's happend to past civilizations you'd be an idiot to not think it couldn't happen now especially with the level of technology we have which is all in the wrong hands.
Something funny happened on the road to Dow Jones 13,000 - the car ran out of gas, and the driver noticed what the latest and (literally) greatest price of unleaded is, the ECB squatted over Greece, Iran found no Black Gold buyers, Money Creation untethered to the needs of workers continued unabaited, and GOD quit.
A day in the life, what is a robot to do.
Nice pump on the ES Did I miss another bailout of greece?
Wow, I'm really impressed by the correlation between gas prices and the S&P 500, but I don't see why there would be a relationship. It seems to me that if gas/diesel prices go up, profit margins of most businesses go down - some more than others, and so the P/E ratios would be decreasing. Wouldn't this drive down stock valuations? That is to say, shouldn't stock prices be inversely proportional to the price of gasoline?
Or is it that free Fed money is pumped into stocks, driving up oil and gasoline?
I am so glad I am not invested in the market. It makes no sense to me.
I remember the ultra cheap gas
It gave me a big wobbly ass
When the fuel was all gone
It didn't take long
Til my butt had lost most of its mass
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