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Presenting Birinyi's Parabolic World... And Bi-Ruler

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The last time Laszlo Birinyi came out with a bold market prediction was back in January 2011, when he forecast that the market would go to 2,854 by September 4, 2013 (more or less precisely to the dot). Many thought he was joking; he was not, and a month later he repeated the same forecast, leading to the advent of the Birinyi ruler. Needless to say, a year after his initial forecast the market was down. However, now that we have had yet another of the now traditional market blow off top moves on massive liquidity injected by central banks, the time to trot Birinyi back on the stage is upon us, and sure enough earlier today he made an appearance in Bloomberg where he proposed his latest forecast of 1,700 in the S&P by year end. Granted this is less aggressive than his previous forecast, which however still stands, so below we present visually the move that the market has to undergo in order to hit both of his targets, courtesy of John Lohman. Since we now have two waypoints on the road to exponential market nirvana, it is no longer a smooth single sloped, but rather a bi-sloping ramp, for which we can only assume one has to use a "bi-ruler" whatever that may be.

Presenting: the parabolic world according to Laszlo.

 

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Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:18 | 2214822 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Thanks ... but no thanks.

I'll sit this little ride out on the sidelines.

 

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:30 | 2214861 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

That's crazy talk.  S&P 500 returns are always linear and always 30-40% per year to infinity and beyond.  With a prudent amount of leverage, every investor should be able to double his or her money every few days.  Who would be so crazy as to sit this out?????

Fuck the Fed.  So many other CB's to mash Ctrl+P buttons.  We don't need no stinking QE3!

 

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:37 | 2215058 JPM Hater001
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Anyone have an account application?  I want to fill it out in crayon.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:55 | 2215113 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

I think Birinyi is misunderstood and that chart represents his Viagra goals.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:56 | 2215117 non_anon
non_anon's picture

psycho-tropic drugs required to participate

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:21 | 2214829 Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

...so we should buy?  ok, I am in.,..where is the offer in Au?  MINE!!

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:23 | 2214835 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This works well with the Israel CB article no?

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:24 | 2214841 CuriousPasserby
CuriousPasserby's picture

I'll stick with physical, bitchez!

And buying PO money orders for cash keeps it low profile.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:39 | 2214894 resurger
resurger's picture

"Impossible is Nothing"

the S&P has tied the knot with robo

Bid is disabled

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:41 | 2214902 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

...What's that again?

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:24 | 2214843 fourchan
fourchan's picture

didnt he used to be a huge short in the 90's?

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:25 | 2214848 joq
joq's picture
Laszlo Birinyi is reaching an age where one might suspect he is getting senile.
Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:35 | 2214879 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

And with the worst case of ED in the free world

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:10 | 2214971 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

A shark reportedly jumped Laszlo Birinyi today.

If he's right, Citi will be around $500 in about 19 months

Maybe I should buy after all...some of the worst companies (that literally have negatives in every metric) have been 5 or 10 baggers in the last 3 years, so they probably have a lot more room to run, and there's probably no risk that they'll revert back to pricing reflective of their fundamentals ever again.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:22 | 2215021 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Ever is a very long time

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:26 | 2214849 Mongo
Mongo's picture

Exponential ponzi

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:26 | 2214850 Death and Gravity
Death and Gravity's picture

How many here watch television as anything other than a reminder of how retarded and manufactured public opinion is?

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:53 | 2214938 Snapperton
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I am with you on this one.  I have been trying to convince certain members of my family that they need to stop digesting televised news.  There are people who find it way too appealing.  It seems like an emotion fest with one side constantly aggravating the other with no resolution.  This is the divide and conquer social engineering strategy in force.  I also find it interesting that we focus so much time and energy on foreign news, but domestic policy and public interest news is mostly lost in the fog of talking heads and political commentary (which is mostly bullshit anyway).  Americans generally have no clue about what's happening in their own country.  The people I work with illustrate this to me every day.  They are always ranting the same bullshit that you hear coming from Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, or even the "A Team" leader of political news, Wolf "Fuzzy Beard" Blitzer and his round table of expensive designer suited cramtheshitdownourthroatswithanger knights.  I have decided to turn it all off and play some more board games with the kids and the occasional bike ride for my increasingly large ass.  The good life doesn't come cheap and it surely won't be maintained by these jokers.  Liberate your mind and try eating less partisan cheese.  You might not find yourself filled by truth at the end of the day (it is elusive), but at least you won't be totally unsatisfied.  They report, you still have no fucking idea what just happened, but decide anyway.  Have a great day sheeples!

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:21 | 2215014 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

Richard Weaver referred to this phenomenon as the "Great Stereopticon."

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:26 | 2214851 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

great, put my automatic sell everything in when the S&P hits 2,800, don't want to get greedy

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:26 | 2214852 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Have 0 interest in this market outside of physical and some miners. No thank you.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:38 | 2215065 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I bought Shorts on the S&P 1150 today with June calls.

Im gonna be rich.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:43 | 2215080 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Good luck covering.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 21:36 | 2215383 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Im not a broker, But i play one one TV. As your broker, I say, Ahhhhhhh, No.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:31 | 2214868 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

Hahahaha 2800 might be a reality...

Remember, markets crash up during hyperinflation. The Zimbabwe stock exchange during their Bernankean era achieved robust growth, vastly outperforming other global exchanges. 

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:32 | 2214871 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

Hmmm interesting.  My forecast was a mirror image....

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:35 | 2214876 Caviar Emptor
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AAPL = X^2 + 500  - Where X = CB Liquidity ! Parabolic !!

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:47 | 2214886 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Exactly. Tiger Gottley, Bi Ruler, Hindenberg Omen, Bollinger bands.. Who cares?   Bi ruler this...There is only one. The Bernank - ruler

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 21:40 | 2214930 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Correction...AAPL = X^2 + 500 (+3/7/12)Ipad/3=APPLx1000

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:34 | 2214877 Frastric
Frastric's picture

Laszlo Birinyi is so wrong; the S@P500 will be a 1000000 when Bernanke and his central banker minions are done releveraging everything they can get their hands on in the next few years...

 

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 20:00 | 2215128 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

long wheelbarrows...short wallets.  Weimar, here we come!

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:35 | 2214880 Zola
Zola's picture

He is "BI-RULING"...Ruler here , ruler there ruler everywhere.... for those who dont understand : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QS0q3mGPGg

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:23 | 2215025 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

Unfortunately, we get it. No need for the link.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:35 | 2214881 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Ok so Apple will be at 1700.  Everything else down the drain?

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:35 | 2214883 Snapperton
Snapperton's picture

The real tragedy is going to be the rush into the markets from all the people who can least afford to lose.  The other side of this parabolic move is going to be a crash into the depths of hell.  Good luck timing that you greedy bastards.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:40 | 2214884 solgundy
solgundy's picture

 

The world was still in order until the summer of 1920, from there on  CPI accelerated within 3.5 years from 10.2  to 1,247,000,000,000.00 !

 

 

http://rinaldoshealthblog.wordpress.com/2010/11/05/inflation-in-germany-...

 

 

http://nowandfutures.com/weimar.html

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:37 | 2214885 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

How many people here - such as myself - remember being told by EW "experts" since back in the Summer of 2009 that "one more rally, then...".

The S&P was in the 800s, or thereabouts. How has the bearish call worked over the past 2-1/2 years since?

It might have been correct, in a normal world, but if you haven't figured it out by now, this ain't no normal world.

The flood of CB money isn't near completion. Correspondingly, neither is the world equity ramp.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:39 | 2214890 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

A "bi-ruler" measures both ways (marks on both sides of the ruler).

If you don't like 4" flip it around and it will say 8".

Viola!

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:40 | 2214898 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

The FED needs to raise interest rates, but before they do that they need to devalue the USD by 40%. So, Gollum, er-I-mean, Laszlo could be right.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:45 | 2214914 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

40%  Sounds optimistic.

Before this is over, most cupra-nickle US coinage's melt value will be worth it's nominal value.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:39 | 2215069 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

You mean another 40%?

Can I get a timeframe?  Is that hours or days?

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:42 | 2214906 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Physicists at CERN have just disclosed that, contrary to traditional thinking,  matter in the universe follows  The Birinyi Certainty Principle. 

Principle # 1 : Everything in the universe proceeds from lower left to upper right

Principle # 2: Everything in the universe follows a parabolic equation

There's a good chance that Birinyi will be up for a Nobel

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:40 | 2215073 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Krugman nominated him.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:45 | 2214915 Island_Dweller
Island_Dweller's picture

So if THE Major stock market index goes from 666 to 2854 inside of 5 years.  What?  We're supposed to think this is a sign of strength?  The good times are gonna roll? Wake me when the debt ponzi is over.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:45 | 2214916 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Have the good folks at CERN certified the Bernank's perpetual motion machine, yet?

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:48 | 2214923 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

They're on the brink of a new era in physics thanks to the economists. Bernank is over there now showing them that, yes, perpetual motion IS possible (but you have to believe!)

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:59 | 2214957 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Close your eyes, click your heels three times and believe: That 5% economic growth is possible for eternity, with the correct monetary policy.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:46 | 2214918 poor fella
poor fella's picture

If I see it, I won't believe it..

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 18:52 | 2214936 Professordoomfinger
Professordoomfinger's picture

Gonna need a bigger purple crayon

 

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:25 | 2214985 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Chart looks a lot like the election year seasonality chart.  The 200 has recently turned up.  What's the bfd?

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:19 | 2215005 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

With hyperinflation, this is pretty conservative forcast.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:23 | 2215023 soopy
soopy's picture

Laszlol

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 19:28 | 2215028 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

 

 I totally agree with Birinyi on this one, if anything his forecast is too low. The reasoning? Mainstream has not priced in hardly any of the phony accounting practices, massive easings, massive dirivatives, and all the other shenanigans and that is not even counting the sovereign bond situation. Especially the U.S. and Japanese, and Chinese bonds. When the masses and their money managers start to head for the exit, where will they be able to run besides gold? Equities will be one of the default value plays in the near future as the hedgies and various mega buck managers scramble to find places where their assets have a chance of surviving.

 

 

 

 

4

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 20:11 | 2215159 Barometer
Barometer's picture

MDB is reaching for the tissues

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 20:32 | 2215204 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

gas $9.99

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 21:00 | 2215265 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

the time to trot Birinyi back on the stage is upon us...

I must say, you have a way with words that suggests a backround with Horses in the Theater or perhaps as Shakespearean Actor or a Red-Bull Aerobatic Pilot performing the Birinyi unlimited sequence.

"Since we now have two waypoints on the road to exponential market nirvana, it is no longer a smooth single sloped, but rather a bi-sloping ramp, for which we can only assume one has to use a "bi-ruler" whatever that may be."

Aerobatic Pilots are very familiar of course with the Birinyi two waypoint bi-sloping sequence:

Pull up into the famous Birinyi "half loop" then "Roll of the Top", "Nose-up Vertical" into an "inverse Tailslide" followed by an inverted "spin - recovery" before landing hopefully and safely in the "Horse-shed".

( you can tell when it's raining and the avgas is high)

piece of cake !

wr;)

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 22:02 | 2215432 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Geez maybe there will be a trickle down effect.

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 22:05 | 2215440 Centurion9.41
Centurion9.41's picture

Please, for the sake of credibility, log scales when appropriate.....

Thu, 03/01/2012 - 22:47 | 2215530 cnhedge
Thu, 03/01/2012 - 23:26 | 2215695 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

S&P adds AAPL.

 

Bi-sexual wins?

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 00:07 | 2215804 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Is the S&P 500 a currency yet?

 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 01:28 | 2215917 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Tyler..."....we can only assume one has to use a "bi-ruler"....you mean a French curve, ne c'est pas?

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 07:56 | 2216289 ivars
ivars's picture

He could be right-this time-or close to it ( S&P 1500 should be expected):

Here is a prediction chart for DJIA taking into account QE'sssssss.

 

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...

 

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:53 | 2216493 thebark
thebark's picture

well ya better get this trade right....cuz pussy and booze is gonna cost a LOT more!

Fri, 03/02/2012 - 09:59 | 2216515 beaker
beaker's picture

You know, this is not that big of a number if you say it fast.

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