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Presenting The Capeless Crusader: The Deficit (Non) Super Committee

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While the soap opera in Europe lurches from one extreme to another, in the process creating substantial market knee jerk reactions, even though the final outcome is quite clear to most with cognitive bias blinders, the next major catalyst in the macro spectacle will come not from across the Atlantic, but from these here United States, in the form of the Super Duper Committee tasked with finding the $1.2 trillion in deficit cuts needed in order to make the August debt ceiling hike legitimate. As a reminder the debt back then was $14.4 trillion - tomorrow it will officially surpass $15 trillion for the first time ever, meaning that even as the Super Committee squabbles, half the benefit from its "successful" conclusion has already been implemented. And here is where Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw comes in with a piece in which he makes it all too clear that the Super Committee may be Clark Kent, but it sure is no Superman. "Press reports continue to suggest that the so-called Super Committee, established as part of the compromise agreement to hike the debt ceiling, is foundering. In recent days, Democrats and Republicans have offered competing plans that have little common ground. Republican members appear to remain committed to a no new taxes pledge, which will make it very difficult for the Committee to come anywhere close to its $1.2 trillion target." In other words, just as nothing material or actionable (suffice for some grandiose delusions) came out of Europe, precisely the same will happen in the US, after our own dire fiscal situation is exposed for the naked emperor it is.

From the very same Morgan Stanley: "There is still a very wide range of possible outcomes, but our baseline expectation at this point is that the Super Committee will agree to $500 billion or so of deficit reduction (a significant portion of which may wind up being budgetary gimmickry that will not lead to any real deficit reduction). This means that $700 billion or so ($1.2 minus $0.5) of automatic deficit reduction would be slated to trigger in 2013. Of course, Congress and the Administration (either current or incoming) would still have an opportunity to override the automatic cuts at some later date." It's good that a major bank acknowledges that we have "budgetary gimmickry that will not lead to any real deficit reduction" to look forward to. In other words: expect the market to do what it does best: surge and/or levitate on no real news to sell off to, while at the same time nobody even pretends any more to have a remotely actionable resolution to anything.

From Morgan Stanley's David Greenlaw

The Super Committee Doesn’t Have a Cape

Press reports continue to suggest that the so-called Super Committee, established as part of the compromise agreement to hike the debt ceiling, is  foundering. In recent days, Democrats and Republicans have offered competing plans that have little common ground. Republican members appear to remain committed to a no new taxes pledge, which will make it very difficult for the Committee to come anywhere close to its $1.2 trillion target.

The smartest thing that the Committee members have done to this point is to hold most of the meetings behind closed doors and avoid leaks to the media. This has helped to prevent a situation similar to the one which played out over the summer, when a constant drumbeat of political bickering seemed to negatively impact investor sentiment. Also, in hindsight, the debt ceiling stalemate appears to have had a powerful negative effect on sentiment along Main Street. For example, the chart below shows the results of a simple question related to perception of the government’s economic policies that is asked every month as part of the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence survey. The results show that negative sentiment reached an all-time low in August (using data back to the inception of the survey question in 1978) and remained quite depressed into September and October.

As the Super Committee heads toward the November 23 deadline, they will be forced to emerge from the darkness. Indeed, given that CBO will need at least a week or so to score whatever proposal emerges, the real deadline for an agreement is even sooner. Moreover, the threat of another government shutdown looms as a separate issue. The Federal government is currently operating under a continuing budget resolution that expires on November 18, and some  Washington watchers are anticipating another contentious battle. Indeed, nearly one full month into the new fiscal year, none of the 12 budget appropriations bills has been enacted. So, beginning soon, we expect more press coverage and a greater public awareness of the degree of political gridlock. This may pose some economic risk because the Super Committee’s deadline is the day before Thanksgiving – right in front of the biggest holiday shopping period of the year!

There is still a very wide range of possible outcomes, but our baseline expectation at this point is that the Super Committee will agree to $500 billion or so of deficit reduction (a significant portion of which may wind up being budgetary gimmickry that will not lead to any real deficit reduction). This means that $700 billion or so ($1.2 minus $0.5) of automatic deficit reduction would be slated to trigger in 2013. Of course, Congress and the Administration (either current or incoming) would still have an opportunity to override the automatic cuts at some later date.

From our perspective, it’s unclear whether Super Committee gridlock would prompt a credit downgrade, given the automatic spending cuts that serve as a backstop. But, as we learned in the initial episode with S&P back in the summer, the ratings agencies can make up their own rules as they go along. The somewhat arbitrary nature of a rating decision makes it very difficult to handicap. Similarly, it’s hard to understand why the financial markets would care if Moody's and/or Fitch joined S&P in downgrading the US, but I suppose you could get another risk-off trade leading to a rally Treasuries. However, it seems likely that the impact would be far more muted today than what occurred after the S&P announcement. Markets should now realize that a credit rating for a  sovereign such as the US – which has the power to tax, borrow or print money – is essentially meaningless. As our sovereign credit strategist Arnaud Marès has explained, a credit rating for a developed economy with its own currency basically represents an evaluation of long-run inflation risk – making it even more puzzling why inflation expectations collapsed after the initial S&P downgrade.

We continue to encounter a great deal of concern regarding near-term fiscal tightening in the US. However, we believe that this reflects some confusion regarding the timing of the actions related to the Super Committee and other factors. It’s important to recognize that just about all of the deficit reduction tied to the Super Committee (or the substitute automatic spending cuts) will not kick in until 2013. The major near-term uncertainty on the fiscal policy front involves the payroll tax cut, investment tax incentives, and unemployment benefit provisions that are scheduled to expire at the end of 2011. Together these programs are worth about $175 billion – or a little more than 1% of GDP. Most Washington experts believe that these measures will be extended, but there is  no obvious vehicle to getting this done and it is far from a sure thing. So, there is valid concern about meaningful fiscal tightening in 2012 – but only if the expiring provisions are not extended.

Looking further ahead, there could be a very sizable tightening of fiscal policy in 2013 depending on the outcome of the Super Committee deliberations and the fate of the Bush era tax cuts (which are slated to expire at the end of 2012). Obviously, the election outcome will be an important determining factor, but this means that business and consumer caution tied to policy uncertainty could continue to plague the US economy for quite some time.

 

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Sun, 10/30/2011 - 20:42 | 1827071 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Ponzi prison time. Didn't some one make a movie about that? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shawshank_Redemption

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 20:54 | 1827090 paarsons
paarsons's picture

But where does it all go.

It seems to me these "idiots" are pretty adept at keeping the bubble growing and growing and growing.

When one explodes, they just blow another.

http://geraldcelente.proboards.com

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:08 | 1827111 NewThor
NewThor's picture

These guys couldn't agree on how to make a peanut butter sandwich.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 23:01 | 1827400 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Give them a break, it's a complicated business. Chunky creamy wheat white PB on the top or bottom, jelly jam. So many things to agree on. Then the sticky issues, should they cut it in half??? The jelly may drip out the side...

Will we want to eat the compromise they finally come up with after all the theater is done? I think not.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:16 | 1827130 Doña K
Doña K's picture

It all goes poof!

The uberinflation is upon us.

Buy everything on credit and keep your gold and silver. 

No time to waste.

A south of the border dude with a 3rd grade education, leveraged himself out to the brink with his credit cards for the last 4 years and flew the coop after his house completed and paid for in Mexico City. And all the PHD's, all the Yale, Harvard and wall street geniouses could not have seen it coming.

Give us a break. May your underarms be infested with a thousand camel flies and your soul burn in hell for a thousand years.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 06:33 | 1827866 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Good post.

I've often struggled with the ethics & morality of doing exactly that. Fighting an unethical, immoral thing with the same tactics.

I just don't have it in me.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 00:05 | 1827529 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Blowing one another is what they do best.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 23:58 | 1827512 Milestones
Milestones's picture

I have this tensy little Constitutional question (Yea I know the toilet paper thing) but how the hell can we say this is in between the fence posts. Article 1 Section 7 (Revenue Bills) says ALL bills for raising revenues shall originate in the house of representatives;--) Now I know in theory that this is all reduction supposedly but if any part of this bill boosts taxes it can't be done in this committee as it is also composed of senators in a super duper pooper scooper committee; and will be part of any final bill. 

I would contend that this committee is unlawfully assembled and that any finished product will likely be illegal. Comments welcome.         Milestones

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 01:36 | 1827655 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

Tell that to Ben Bernanke........he seems to have no trouble spending (printing) money on our account.........

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 20:42 | 1827072 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

They will decide not to invade Mars, and it will create $10T savings overnight. 

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 20:48 | 1827081 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

I heard by not invading Andromeda galaxy the US will save 1 quadrillion dollars.  Enough to backstrop the derivativees market when it implodes.  Everything is fine. /s

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 20:54 | 1827089 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

What?!? Andromeda is a threat to our national security. I demand we take action immediately. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a terrorist.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:18 | 1827134 knukles
knukles's picture

Success! By challenging the HedgeMoronic Disposition of the Andromedians through significantly raising our InterGalactic Defese Budget (which for all intents and purposes shall remain off budget until the Department of Intergalactic Defense has been established) we shall create an additional 12.7 million jobs, save in excessof 177 trazillion Denbinapasettas whilst relieveing many American of their overwhelming daily anxieties.
We have always been at war with Andromeda.

(and don't forget to cum in your sperm tube tonight.., Big Brother is watching)    

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:30 | 1827155 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

come on, will you people get real.

140 million or so Americans are employed currently.

Obama's administration 'saves' 140 million jobs every single day they're in office.

If it wasn't for government none of those jobs would exist! So they 'save' 10x as many jobs as there are unemployed people!

please give Keynes credit where it is due!

 

/s

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 23:43 | 1827462 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

speaking of andromeda, i see where she was chained to a rock to be attacked by a monster as punishment for her mother's (!) bragging.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andromeda_(mythology)#Depictions_in_art

reminds me a little bit of the current fate of the 99%+: forced austerity to pay for the careless greed of the 1%-.  actually andromeda's situation was fairer: her mother didn't sell spectators tickets to further enrich herself.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 20:44 | 1827074 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

taxes should not be increased one penny

why give any $ to miscreants - let them eat their bribes

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:19 | 1827136 Clay Hill
Clay Hill's picture

+ $97,000 in the fridge, bitchez

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 20:47 | 1827080 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Gee,I wonder if the US could save some joo bucks by cutting some of that wold dommination Military budget ?

 

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 20:47 | 1827083 Aguadulce
Aguadulce's picture

Like sands through the hourglass, so is the wealth of our lives

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:20 | 1827139 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

That was very good.  + 1

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 20:53 | 1827087 Fibz
Fibz's picture

When enough people realize their lives have been wasted by paying taxes to enrich the elites, the uprising will be like 10,000 black swans and history books will no longer point to 1940s Germany as the darkest period for humanity in modern times.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:06 | 1827108 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

+1 Prescient

Fibz I can believe in.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:21 | 1827138 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I recenly ran across this video/movie made by Aaron Rousso in 2005 (Rousso rip 2007). He was an award winning producer and Grammy winner.  Well done film showing IRS  and Federal Reserve fraud and abuses. Questions the Fed creation and the Constitutionality of the income tax Amendment, the 16th Amendment, which was never ratified and had been struck down twice before by SCOTUS. Apparently, nobody can produce the law under which the IRS compels compliance, because it does not exist, not even the former IRS commisionar who gets upset when asked about it in an interview with Mr. Rousso.

America: Freedom to Fascism-Full Length Documentary - YouTube

 

It will pretty much makes your head explode. Save it and watch it when you get the time and/or pass it along to those who are still asleep.

 

 

 

 

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:36 | 1827177 Clay Hill
Clay Hill's picture

I first saw that movie in early 2007 what an eye opener.

Aaron Rousso (and the interview with Ron Paul) served as the impetus for getting myself out from under a ridiculous amount of debt, and putting aside some of my earnings in PM's.

Rest in Peace, Aaron.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:01 | 1827100 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Did anyone really think this "super committee" was going to achieve anything meaningful? If so, I know of an underwater house you can buy.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:34 | 1827166 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

It will achieve something meaningful, it will ensure that all the fuctard politicians get re-elected including Omarxist.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 23:47 | 1827474 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

obama is not a marxist and he's not getting reelected.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 00:10 | 1827537 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

It ensured that the debate got quieted for a while. That must be meaningful to tptb????

I already know about a few underwater house, thanks anyway.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:05 | 1827106 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Just freeze Federal spending, especially the automatic 10% spending increases.

 

CBO Savings score: $9 Trillion over 10 years.  Result: Priceless.  

 

EndtheFed: don't let them steal it through inflation to do the same thing. 

 

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:35 | 1827163 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Or just freeze the Fed period - agreed.

Domestic & global fckg terrorista.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:08 | 1827110 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Reading that headline I momentarily thought it was another episode of Sovereign Man. Schucks...

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:08 | 1827112 mfoste1
mfoste1's picture

Its all a game with funny money, and were the game pieces. Early in this game small groups of a few hold the power and tailor it to their wants, needs and control hunger. When the game begins to turn sour, the powers will become more and more desperate to keep the current scheme in continuation.  Followers will turn desperate as well and will seek answers from those in power, until they realize they have no more answers. Then the followers will begin to question the status quo. Proceeding the questioning phase, the followers will become educated and then they are no longer followers. They will form their own organizations in mass.This is when the true revolution will begin......  Right now the game is turning sour and those in power are becoming desperate.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:09 | 1827114 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Why does our Congress lie, cheat, steal, and essentially ignore pressing problems? 

Because they can!

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:13 | 1827117 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

 

The corrupted daisy chain of the clueless economic destroyers keeps kicking the can or manages to screw the middle class even more

The US gets a BBB

USD tanks

Gold to $3000 within 60 days

Blythe Masters dies; an apparent suicide; the ME strangely finds a 100 oz siver bar in her anal cavity.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:30 | 1827147 knukles
knukles's picture

... and all her silver fillings suspiciously removed from a entirely bloodless corpse.  Mystery deepens as to when Vince Foster tatoo on upper inner left thigh originated.  Investigation remains open within X-Files section of Somewhere We Can Tell You About Because It's Secret.  The Bernak and Timmah to be appointed Special Investigators.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:17 | 1827121 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Indeed, nearly one full month into the new fiscal year, none of the 12 budget appropriations bills has been enacted.

So what, they didn't pass half of these last year.

Markets should now realize that a credit rating for a  sovereign such as the US – which has the power to tax, borrow or print money – is essentially meaningless.

And what kind of crap is this really? Unlimited deficits is no biggie because America has the world currency? Yes it doesn't matter...till it does.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:25 | 1827144 Earl of Chiswick
Earl of Chiswick's picture

Cheers Stephen Smith

as you wax eloquent on the death of three of our boys

don't drown in you tears as you suck the American teat (dry as it is)

http://www.youtube.com/verify_age?next_url=http%3A//www.youtube.com/watc...

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:35 | 1827145 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

The Super-Committee hasn't got capes?

Are you lads slow on the uptake! Did you not see and hear the CNBC interview with Superwoman Nancy Peloski this very week? Stop trifling with $1.2 Trillion in savings, this over-optimitic Gongresswoman (batty bitch) stated clear as day three times she's "aiming for $4 trillion in savings" 

Maria Bartaflowjo then pointed out how will Superwitch do that when she's running TV campaign adverts promising no cuts in welfare or entitòements spending (great commitment to State spending cuts and "putting everything on the table" that is!)

Superforkedtongue then waffled and stuttered something about making spending cuts wasn't the same as cutting welfare entitlemens.

No Nancy dearest. Your the worlds greatest expert in making back-office cuts that add up to $4 Trillion without cutting any entitlements. 

i for one simply cannot wait to see how laying off the office tea boy saves $14,000 per annum in wages while his generous Govt lay-off package entitles him to $36,000 in severence pay, holiday back-wages, mediicare and pension liabilities.

This is going to be simply SUPER to watch ...pass the super sized $4T bucket of popcorn please, I wanna watch Nancy go to work

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:39 | 1827184 knukles
knukles's picture

Maria (God's very own Lady of the Take) should have pointed out that one of the newspapers sometime ago in the Winter Home of the Great Satan discovered that Little Ms. Von Savings' food and liquor bill for her very own jet that flies her and co. back and forth was running at some $100,000 per month.

(blubber)

I'm wondering if in that scene in A Clockwork Orange that Kubrik hadn't used her eyes as the one's being kept open watching the UV film....

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 05:47 | 1827258 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Oh you cynic ....Nancy may have spent her entire career as a suicide-socialist spending machine. But she is now appointed and annointed to the 'Super Committee'

She'll leave Congress and walk into a public phone box and 'Ta Da' re-emerge caped and in spandex tights ready to enter the Super Committee a new 'super' politician able to save and cut budgets rather than spend the US into oblivion 

Nancy is going to turn from lifelong spender, squanderor and bankrupt credit card junky into super saver and mega-cutter (even if her new campaign adverts give completely the opposite impression that the welfare spending orgy will party-on!)

$4 Trillion in savings are coming down the pipe just like Super-Nancy says it is

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:33 | 1827162 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Anybody who doesn't believe that this is all political theatre for the idiots ,and that some last minute deal won't be made deserves to lose all their money.

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:45 | 1827206 redcorona
redcorona's picture

Do we have to call it the 'Super Committe'?  Why not call it the Politburo?  Or a Kahal?

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 05:30 | 1827828 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

....the Rule of Thumb of Govt is everything it claims on the tin can it achieves the exact opposite

Super Committee therefore translates as Uber Shite Committee

..and it looks like it's replaced the roles of both the US President, Congress and the Senate which between them couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery and just bickered as no political puppet would trim/cut their raking in of other peoples money

So expect the Uber Shite Committees budget cuts to cause yet more bickering and create a wedge between it and the other three gormless roles (and now spare parts) of the US Govt

That's because the other Rule of Thumb of Govt is all political 'solutions' create bigger even more pear-shaped problems ...this is going to be a complete and utter farce, grab your popcorn

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 21:50 | 1827224 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Just hearing Uber Allies on background tv, german national anthem - is this on the ground troops in Athens or F1

Sun, 10/30/2011 - 23:34 | 1827443 dalkrin
dalkrin's picture

After this fails, time to implement the mega-committee, then the ultra-committee, and then finally resort to the Debt Czar and his sidekick, Margin.  He shall order the debt to be brought low, and behold, the debt shall recede before our very eyes.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 00:28 | 1827567 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

oh, my!

whatever will the CFR do now?

 

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 01:46 | 1827678 ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

I can't help but think that if the US simply said "well, we're fucked, we might as well just stop doing stupid shit" and pulled out all active troops from the Middle East, that ridiculous amounts of money would be saved. Even cutting the defence budget by half (well, half of the $600b reported) would be far more than just chump change for the budget.

Then again, that would mean many defence contractors would get a little pissy about not being paid mega bucks for making wonderful killing machines.

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