Presenting Economic Reality

Tyler Durden's picture


Following today's disappointing jobs data, we thought it useful to reflect on the sad reality that is occurring under the eyes of AAPL Mr. Market. As BofAML notes this morning, their Economic Data Diffusion index (which tracks macro data surprises) has been trending lower for over a month (indicating a trend of data missing expectations to the downside) and, more importantly has turned absolutely negative (indicating a marginally negative bias to the overall economic data expectations). Following our lead, they note the weather's impact and that this is likely to be the third time in this recovery that the markets and economic consensus has over-reacted to positive news and become too optimistic about growth. Looking ahead, we expect this data downshift to continue. In the near term, both higher gasoline prices and the fading weather effect will likely weigh on growth and, over the course of the second half, we expect the looming fiscal cliff to undercut confidence and growth. Party's ending, a tough economic reality is looming and the punchbowl remains out of sight for now.


Source: BofAML

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Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:03 | 2337356 GetZeeGold
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That's gonna leave a mark.


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:22 | 2337429 Stax Edwards
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He who fades first fades best

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:44 | 2337516 duo
duo's picture

Beat those tax increases on capital gains and the Obamacare "unearned income" tax

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:50 | 2337509 HarryM
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Market up 43 on the good news  QE#!   QE#!


make that up 63


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 10:04 | 2337586 SmoothCoolSmoke
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Make that +83.  JH Christ!

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:03 | 2337359 Jason T
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watch this 3 second video! lol

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:09 | 2337381 icanhasbailout
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Benny is warming up at the QE bat, waiting for a few more swings at the dead policy horse

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:18 | 2337411 SheepDog-One
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Go for it Ben! I dare ya!

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:31 | 2337471 Zero Govt
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Bubble Ben is going to go for it... just as soon as DC or WS click their fingers at him

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:10 | 2337385 JPM Hater001
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I'm picking up my punch bowl this weekend.  15 cases of booze.

Currency bitchez

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:11 | 2337391 youngman
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Growth wil be in other countries....not in the western I see companys starting to move their HQ´s out of the USA and to other locals.....where business is treated better....

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:52 | 2337546 Bicycle Repairman
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"I see companys starting to move their HQ´s out of the USA"

Let them move their families as well.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 10:00 | 2337563 LawsofPhysics
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I agree with you on this one BR.  Let's see, make billions by selling out my neighbors and my countrymen and then expect them to "play nice" after my corporation bought their representation and wrote the laws for me.  Bascially, after screwing my neighbors several times over, I would consider leaving as well.

Blowback is a bitch.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 11:09 | 2337930 bahaar
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Nope, they won't do that.  In fact, wealthy from other countries are moving their families to USA. Because USA has fresh air, clean water supply, wooded areas, parks, good infrastructure and good universities.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 14:52 | 2338887 Bicycle Repairman
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Let's ask them to leave.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 11:15 | 2337953 bahaar
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Nothing to do with better treatment of business.  They move because of:


1) Slave labor

2) No environmental regulations ( Just go measure the amount of toxins in those countries' air and water)

3) Millions of consumers waiting to buy their first TV, car, washing machine etc.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:14 | 2337398 Ted Baker
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Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:57 | 2337555 HarryM
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Is that up 10+ or down?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:19 | 2337414 buzlightening
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Only place it all ends is WWIII. bankster gangsters in bed with pretended representative goon platoon governments; US the worst, need bury the whistle blowers bodies; destroy the evidence of financial rape & plunder of the ignorant masses.  They're called masters of the universe because, as this host earth is parasitically sucked financially, dry the evil rat bastards move on worlds without number. 

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:21 | 2337423 insanelysane
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O says that trickle down economics never worked.  I don't want to argue that one way or the other but.....somehow they expect QE to Banksters to somehow trickle down.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:27 | 2337448 mess nonster
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I don't know about you, but I have the distinct impression that I'm being trickled down upon.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:23 | 2337436 SheepDog-One
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What kind of muppets are there left to still buy into ANY of this crap? Is it the USA Today subscribers who see their headlines like 'Gas prices topped out, headed back to $3'...they just read that and the Euphorium is so strong they just go about their day in a mindless stupor?

I dont get how such large swaths of people can be such fucking drones!

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:28 | 2337457 Zero Govt
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if you managed a pension fund, or Apple, where else would you put your (big trucks of) money?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:50 | 2337534 kornholio
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i read all the time but never post, but I have to say Sheepdog you are my hero...

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:25 | 2337437 mess nonster
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Hey! What's that in the punchbowl?

Uh, I think that's a turd, dude...

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:30 | 2337470 Bahamas
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It didn't taste right from the first sip

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:27 | 2337450 yogibear
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Benny Bernanke will reuse QE and boost oil and commodities even higher. Higher and higher cost of living, taxes and fees, while wages and income slide. 

The public unions are having many of it's workers retiring with fat pensions (unfunded) and benefits. This means more taxes.

Go ahead Benny, destroy the US dollar and force people out in the streets.



Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:28 | 2337459 mess nonster
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Mess Nonster ends his scatalogical fun for the day.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 09:56 | 2337542 Shizzmoney
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Growth will be in other countries....not in the western I see companys starting to move their HQ´s out of the USA and to other locals.....where business is treated better....

And you mean to tell me the extortionist political system for big business isn't optimal for them, now?  We should give GE, BP, AAPL, and Halliburton MORE tax subsidies, so they can say they created jobs with shitty pay that doesn't keep up with inflation, and "benefits" that put the consumer into more debt?  

Corporations basically put "money carrots" over the politicans head, while aiming a metaphorical machine turret towards the working class, saying, "Give us our tax breaks and our coveted NeoFeudal society, or we'll shoot".

Does anybody here remember how the damn bailouts worked?  The people said no, TPTB crashed the market, investors followed suit (smartly), and Congress caved (even thought they didn't have to). 

It was a financial coup d'etat, pure and simple.....they bet on the fact our politicans have no balls, and they shipped the bet.

If you mean small business, though.....I agree. If *I* had a small tech firm, I'd move to Canada, Malta, Northern Ireland, or Isle of Man.

Am I the only one who is glad he's broke? Imagine if you have a pension/401K, looking at this shit.

In 10-20 years, there will be two types of people.  Those who had pensions, and those who have guns.

I think guns wins the day.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 11:14 | 2337948 ebworthen
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And the DOW is up 1.1%?

Robots busy buying shit so they can sell it?

Does a QE rumor really mean that companies will be worth more?

Peanuts!  Popcorn!  Cotton Candy!  So much fun to be had at the Circus.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 11:32 | 2338045 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

Ironically, QE and subsequent inflation, has been a boon for stocks, as they are seen as an asset class that somewhat keeps up with inflation.  Argentina's Merval and Weimar's stock markets shot along with inflation, although not necessarily one-to-one.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 11:42 | 2338119 Eric L. Prentis
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My technical analysis model, based on long-term trends in the stock market, predicts the US will slip back into recession in April/May 2012.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 12:02 | 2338234 Snakeeyes
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Suppose that the warmer than normal winter sapped the labor market slack (meaning that unemployment will actually RISE). Largarde in US saying that the EUROZONE doesn't want to take the pain, and can the US help out. What a mess!!!!!!!!!!

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