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Presenting The Full Greek (Un)Sustainability Analysis - Take It Away German Media
You read headlines that Greece is saved (in a carbon copy release from July 21). Now read the truth behind the lies - presenting the 9 page (so it's brief enough) Greek sustainability (or lack thereof) analysis.
Here is the punchline:
The debt trajectory is extremely sensitive to program delays, suggesting that the program could be accident prone, and calling into question sustainability (Table 2). Under the tailored scenario described above, the debt ratio would peak at 178 percent of GDP in 2015. Once growth did recover, fiscal policy achieved its target, and privatization picked up, the debt would begin to slowly decline. Debt to GDP would fall to around 160 percent of GDP by 2020, well above the target of about 120 percent of GDP set by European leaders. Financing needs through 2020 would amount to perhaps €245 billion. Under the assumption that stronger growth could follow on the eventual elimination of the competiveness gap, the debt ratio would slowly converge to that in the baseline, but likely only in the late 2020s. With debt ratios so high in the next decade, smaller shocks would produce unsustainable dynamics, leaving the program highly accident-prone.
And if the downside case means the country is about to need 100% of its GDP in additional funding needs, the reality is that this number most likely be 200%, bringing the total bailout bill for Greece to nearly 3x its GDP!
Becase wait, there's more: the downside case assumes -1.0% GDP decline in 2013. As a reminder, in Q4 Greek GDP imploded by -7%! Somehow we are to believe that within a year, the country will not only turn around its economy, which is foundering courtesy of infinite austerity and striking tax collectors, but almost generate growth???
The German media is about to have a field day.
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You mean the German media tells the truth, unlike the media in the US?
It's too bad the German people have become pussheepified.
At least the German leaders don't need a teleprompter to speak coherently while lying to the sheeple, like our Brown Clown does.
Well, despite all the naysayers, The Associated Press, that bastion of fine journalistic reporting and parsing of detail, is reporting that this is a done deal, and even that Greece received "$172 billion in extra bailout loans."
Provisional Deal for $172 Billion Bailout for Greece By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS 1 minute agoBullshit!...errr.....I meant....Bullish!
RIsk on! as Joe Wiesenthal would say!
Extra....is that, like, free money or something?
Cool.
When do I get a bailout?
It's kind of like a HELOC, except that the collateral is a nation and its people vs a house, and the lender knows ahead of time that its mathematically impossible that the loan can be repaid, so it's only free for a little while.
Haha! Greece just HELOCed their country! Brilliant.
Let us review the Greek situation.
Using the GM & Chrysler medicine, Greece lenders could forgive most of Greek debts and the Central Banks could just print more funny-money compensating Greek debt holders.
Greece will have a "clean" start and, without accumulating new debts, will solve its problems. After all, the Central banks are printing mountains of funny money every single day. However, this solution would drastically reduce the Zionist Banking Mafia strangulation and enslavement of Greek people. From the Mafia point of view, such solution is NOT acceptable.
the important part about the announcement i think is that the bail out money will be held in escrow until each part comes due, so that the creditors can get the money back if Greece misses targets. Everyone know Greece will miss targets, so this way they can kick the can for maybe 6 more months.
Can anyone tell me how much private Greek debt is being written down and discharged in this deal? 25 Billion, 50billion?
The Greeks must get their guzzling financial inspiration from Bacchus. The God of Whine.
There has been little talk of that the past 5 hours or so. One wonders if they really do have a PSI agreement.
This is a very interesting move in the right direction anyway.
UPDATE: The Republican National Committee approved the resolution exposing Agenda 21 at their Winter Meeting, January 13, 2012. The resolution will be recommended for adoption into the Republican Party Platform at the 2012 Convention. See the resolution HERE. Note: the resolution is the third from the top.
It has been reported that the Republican National Committee passed a resolution exposing Agenda 21 for what it is: a disregard for American freedom, private property rights, and a key player in the Leftist move toward a one world government. Agenda 21 (ICLEI) assaults the very foundation of America. The RNC has not yet made an official statement or released the resolution. We call on the RNC to release this immediately, and we salute the individuals who signed this document.
God DAMNIT I wish Tyler(s) would fix this right margin problem. This is pure SHIT and impossible to read.
"<ctrl> -" (control-minus) doesn't work for you?
We, the Bankers of the World, thank Greece for its starvation and pain. With out them we would not have survived. Now pay up Bitches on leash or suck harder when we command.
We rule you, we own you and you will do as we say or
NO SOUP FOR YOU
signed
Soup Nazi
Did I mention about pouring water into sand - Old age and treachery will defeat youth and skill any Fucking day.
Suck on that
word 4 word
Typical Paulson-type crisis management ... fabricate a "crisis" based on "systemic risk" that will cause financial armegeddon ... then force the private sector to "bailout" the banks and centralized money printers ... all with the total complicity of the MSM ... it's brilliant deception
You're confused LH, YOU get a haircut, it is the BANKS that get the bailout.
Sorry about that.
Aw man, whaaat? Cashed? Load anoother one, maaaan, c'mon!
Henry Blodget let Joe Wiesenthal out of his cage and he's junking everyone.
Extra....is that, like, free money or something?
No, it's like an allowance. Make your bed this week and I'll pay you $1 billion.
Vacuum the pool and you'll get $2 Billion.
Wait a minute. There are no pools in Greece.
The Eventual Evolution of Sovereign Perspective During Times of Economic Crisis
"As a Greek I greatly appreciate all this free money to Greece."
"Well as an Irishman I greatly resent this free money to Greece."
"As an Italian I too greatly resent this free money to Greece."
"As a Portugese I too greatly resent this free money to Greece."
"As a Spaniard I too greatly resent this free money to Greece."
"As a fed up free-money lending German you fuckin' future freeloaders can all now kiss my blonde ass for free."
or completed Homes
You wont. Because your a terrist.
"What fools these humans be--"
re:plan
lol!
Not to be really picky, but as I recall it is " what fools these MORTALS be--. From a song Perfidia but I think it goes back much further than the early 50.'s. Milestonnes
A bit further back-Shakespeare put it in A Midsummer Night's Dream.
You are of course correct!! It was in the back of my mind--I just didn't know where!!! Thanks Milestones
Puck.
It almost could've been the bernank:
If we [banksters] have offended, Think but this, and all is mended; That you have but slumbered here Whilst these [bailouts] did appear. And this weak and idle theme, No more yielding but a dream, [Debt-slaves], do not reprehend; If you pardon, we will mend. And, as I am an honest [bernank], [cough] If we have unearned [b]uck[s] Now [sayeth] the serpent's tongue, We will make [endless fiat], ere long, [And lo!], the [bernank] a [hero] call[!] So, goodnight unto you all! Give me your hands, if we be friends, And [Benny] shall restore [your shackles].Greece just got an 80-20 with a two year prepay. Or is it a Pick-a-pay?
Germany WANTS this! That's what has been missing in this story since day one. WE ALL KNOW WHY HERE. This what happens when the Banksters win. PERIOD. "the Germans are always welcome in the USA" is all I have to say. (so is the rest of Europe I might add...Japan...and for me I don't have a problem with the Islamic world either. Just be ready ready for some foul language from all of us. Still better than bullets, right?
TruthInSunshine said:
AP doesn't seem to know the difference between loans and grants.
Developments in Eurozone resemble some surreal movie: http://www.armadamarkets.com/2012/02/weekly-market-update-4/
Fucked-in-the head spammer mattu13048, now posting as JennaChick since his mattu13048 account was deleted for being a fucked-in-the-head spammer, spammed his shitty site again:
Go fuck yourself, you contemptible spammer. Haven't you figured it out yet, Ingmar? You pollute ZH with spam, I pollute your search engine results:
armadamarkets.com makes its money by kidnapping Estonian children and selling them into sex slavery in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates.
armadamarkets.com runs a fraudulent scam market analysis site that is based on spamming. This site is just a front for their Estonian child kidnapping sex slavery business.
Let's not forget about those "key words":
armadamarkets.com terror bomb anthrax shopping mall claymore mine grenade launcher IED assassination hijack Al Qaida ricin electromagnetic pulse Federal Reserve CIA Mossad Lady Gaga detonator Lemmiwinks Hezbollah Guantanamo Santorum fisting plutonium Juarez Cayman Islands nuclear trigger Cleveland Steamer Howard Cosell Ingmar Mattus painful rectal itch Tim Geithner
better a "brown clown" than a brown shirt. (look in mirror sometime. if you have one).
The brown clown covets that brown shirt. Give him another term and one or two more Supreme Court picks, and you can kiss what is left of the Constitution goodbye.
If the shirt fits .....
Welcome to fight club.;)
oh and
read History
First they came for the communist, But I was not one...
Your Bill of right looks and is, a shell shagged, droopy and limp representation of what was once a shining light to all people. I read it and cried at it importance in my youth, now I just cry for what has been removed by lies, fear and dis-information.
They are training a whole lot of "pilots" to fly drones. Go to work at 7am and be home in a clean shirt by 4pm. In between it just a game where you get to blow a whole pile of shit up without any responsibility. There is no sound of pain and death, guilt or death rattle. It is silent, deadly and cowardly.
Wear the shirt if it fits
Now I suppose you all were wondering if this is "priced in"? Hell no, it never works like that, the markets will be flying high tomorrow. Don't get discouraged, watch the commodities go right up with it, there will be an explosion in inflation.
If there is anything that will finally get the general public to start using their "sometimes overly useless" minds, it will be the prices they have to pay for food and gas.
They will put the spin on this like no other, try as they may, they will find that KARMA is a bitch
As long as the dollar menu stays the dollar menu, nobody will say a damned thing.
Meanwhile, Hugh Hewitt was heard to remark, "You know who this helps? Mitt Romney!"
yep...and that "dollar" big mac will be the size of a york peppermint patty.
Mr Lennon Hendrix said:
...because that proves there is no inflation. This has a high degree of correlation with the consumer HRTI (Horse Race Track Index), because a two-dollar bet is still a two-dollar bet.
Wheeee! Look at me, I'm an Ivory League e-commonist, just like they churn out at Princeton and Harvard.
Sorry guys, we are too busy to present our newest submarine. It is the biggest submarine we've built since World War 2. And now I ask you: Where do we send it?
We send it to Israel. This year. And we even pay 1/3 of it. We are good friends, aren't we?
http://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article13878396/Deutsches-68-Meter-U-...
I'd say finally. Refreshing. For decades all German arms technology had to go first to South Africa in form of blueprints first, now we can skip this charade and admit that Israel has been a happy customer all the time.
Dolphin, such a cute, innocuos name... have you seen the Tiger Helicopter that is being used in Afghanistan?
Ghordius said:
It's part of the new policy of transparency.
Clever marketing, just like the Dancing Fairy Princess® white phosphorus shells.
Transparency, transparency, where did I last hear that term in politics? Ah, now I remember! Glasnost.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasnost
sounds very dangerous and is to be avoided at all costs if you have a dictatorial regime ;-)
But wait! Is there a deal? Does it fix everything? Do we have to do this again tomorrow, in 2 weeks, 3 months, ad infinitum?
"Fix" is a misnomer.
More correct to say this "extends" the situation.
I think we would all agree this is not a fix, its a NEUTER.
It's an exacerbation.
More debt, more time, more fraud, more fake fiat, more contagion.
Vamping.
"fix" is all relative to the half-life of such fixes. In this case, very short...as in the half-life formula for "rumors"
The graphs prove everything!!
The graph looks like Mordor.
If these graphs are even half as effective at predicting the future as the ones here in the US, then we can expect Greece's debt to GDP will hit 2000% within 3 months.
I'll take the under and bet....the fucking house.
One does not simply
give money to the Greeks
Some do if they want some Greek action..
and there is a lot of that happening.
The graph looks like a pair of knockers from the 4 o'clock position.
I'll gladly pay you $5.00 Tuesday, for a Cheeseburger today.
Sorry, by then you just might get it for $10.
This might be WB7's greatest work of all time.
Doesn't that graph makes mockery of the laws of physics? The projectile (dotted line) is supposed to shoot higher and come down to the downhill much faster:
http://www.algebralab.org/practice/practice.aspx?file=Reading_ProjectileGraph.xml
The graph looks like a volcano.
Interesting. Hey, maybe the graph is actually upside-down.
1.5T zone football
Javol, mein Führer!
etc.
"accident prone," = rigged to implode
Hopium vapor.
tranche warfare, BiCheZ!
Sssshhhhhhh! The tranches are sleeping!
Quick, call Rumplestiltskin! Maybe that nasty looking little fucker can conjur the EU up some more bailout money...
And bring some hay, stat!
No shit, that ugly little sorceror had himself a "special" spinning wheel.
Now that I think about it, Tim Geithner could play the perfect Rumplez.
Geithner was born to elves in the North Pole:
http://www.framingthedialogue.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/giethner-he...
Mr Lennon Hendrix said:
Timmah is more like an ass-faced Rapunzel. If you want a good Rumplestiltskin, you need and evil little under-the-bridge-dwelling troll like Lloyd Bankfiend.
You are so right, I was watching that fuckin hobbit on cspan the other day trying to sell the buget and it was mesmerizing. He is one ugly mofo straight out of middle earth.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't 100% of nothing still equal nothing? The way the Greek GDP is going backwards in this upside down world they will be paying off their debt by receiving welfare checks. A new financial spin on negative amortization.
All the cool kids are doing it.
Your comment is a classic.
It is, really, I voted him up too. It's not really that new, it's going on all around us.
You sir obviously know nothing of Keynesian economics - 100% of nothing is indeed 100% of something if that 100% goes towards keeping up the status quo.
You are right and wrong...
100% of nothing is null...and technically null is a value .... Albeit zero.
The absence of something is a vacuum. As in Greece is in such debt it mind as well be in outer space. Too bad the pile of printed money all the way to Jupiter is the only way to keep Greece from simply floating away.
Another way to think of Greece is the tale of Atlantis. only instead of being swallowed by the sea it is swallowed by debt. Too bad the EFSF is a small sippy-cup and it just can't hold back the tide. What really needs to happen to save the Euro according to the morons in Brussels is a massive dilution of the Euro and therefore by extension in their minds the sippy-cup becomes a bazooka. Too bad that bazooka has back-blast with responsible people in the zone of danger.
All powered by unicorn farts, as near as I can tell.
Congrats on a successful unicorn reference. Now go milk your cat...it's a unicorn's favorite meal...
Well, tht's "close enough for government work".
"Accident prone" as if we're talking about a five year old, not billions of Euros, and the futures of millions of people.
This is what I think they meant by accident prone:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWMLjJk1BWg&feature=related
It's a code-phrase for: "This shit's gonna crash and burn"
If I was a Greek citizen and happened to run into their local politician in public, I would take a run at him and land my fist on his jaw and hopefully break it! If it did not break, I would find the nearest physical object to crack his jaw again until it broke!
Another $200 billion in financing needs over the next few years... what could go wrong?
Tune in next week for "Greece: Deal or No Deal!?" It's on right after "The Walking Dead"!!!???
I think next week is no deal week followed up by we have a deal week.
What if we never have a deal and the debt begins to fund itself?
It's alive!!!! It's alive!!!!!!!!
LOL! You're cracking me up. At least one "important official" is probably hoping this is possible.
"Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?"
Yeah! Surfs up, Dude!. What?
+1 for the Kelly's Heroes reference
Odd ball represents that
I'd be the first to advocate the germans revolting agaisnt this but being a realist, i supose they will do the same as Americans. Nothing. Whata fuced up world we live in. God save us.
Great map, but that is not how I pictured the Troika.
I was thinking Mr. Howard, Mr. Fine and Mr. Howard.
There are no market for the reaper to visit. They will not allow " bond vigilantes" to trump their power on this one. That is why the fed is buying the grand majority of tbills it prints.
This reminded of Monty python though and I love the graphics.
And print they will. Print baby, print.
I hear the market reaper is a myth.........
You're a dangerous man William. Once again, I need one of these.
But Fareed said it was fix didn't he?
We are all subordinates if they keep "fixing" every sovereign debt issue like this ad infinitum.
Money, contracts, bonds, etc. are personal property, and it would seem they are either being outright stolen, or devalued to the point of absurdity. What system of finance do we "evolve" to when the numbers and words are all meaningless? Who works or tries to outperform in a valueless, property-less system? Serfs. Hayek was right about that too.
This is just stupid.
I am making a deal with my ass, gravity is hereby suspended until 2020.
Now where the fuck is my bailout pony.
I'll be your pony.
Well, you got in there first; can I be the cool down rider?
greece is beyond save.
http://www.cnhedge.com
Did you mean suave? I think you meant suave.
Sigh...time to eat all canned and packaged food with 2012 expiration dates.....not gonna need them this year with the way things are going....
Canned ham bitchez
Europe solves Greek bailout problem. Check.
Next week, S&P downgrades rest of Europe credit ratings, including Germany. Check.
Rinse and repeat. Greece is the drowning man of Europe. You try to save a drowning man, you get drowned yourself.
Life is a bitch.
When I was in college, I was a lifeguard at a summer camp, and the fat kid (I mean real fat too) swam out to the oil drum I told the kids not to swim to (I still don't know how we made it out there). I had to put him on my back and crawl back to shore with one arm.
Halfway back I paused and he slipped like a rock under water. It was the only time that summer we had a problem I wasn't sure would turn out fine.
So with Europe, this looks like the fat kid made it out to the oil drum, and the lifeguard is drunk and too blitzed to swim, and if the lifeguard tries to save the fat kid, they could both drown.
We spent our time testing the "Dead Line" between the girls side and the boys.
So too was the Staff.
Its interesting the analysis has a "lower growth" projection (in other words, the "likely" case) that only brings debt to GDP down to 143%.
Even that's unlikely, yet the MSM spin is "Greece is solved", lets rally.
But wait......its fucking brilliant really...... assuming additiional bailout monies=GDP increments ( a la BLS we can adjust the usual formulas ), therefor over time , near infinite debt, Debt/GDP ratio will converge towards 100%. Here we were all expecting 120% ! Ace move guys, you have us. EUR/USD 1.50 here we come
BLS did spin consulting for this one.
(Sigh!) This is really getting old!
Take note, Italy, Portugal and Spain... Greece has set the precedent for bailouts ad infinitum.
Think large. Think often.
Everyone and their grandmother knows that these debt goals for Greece won't be met anywhere close to 2020.
The reactions to this deal is going to be interesting... in any number of places.
Well, I guess we can all go to bed now and have dreams of warm, fuzzy happy things. Everything will be better now starting Tuesday.
Everything is going to work out fine. Legarde is going to discuss the 2nd bailout package at a conference during the 2nd week in March. In preparation she's going to work on reprimands for little men that stay in the restroom too long.
* Dutch demand permanent EU-IMF control in Greece - DowJones.
Invasion!
C'mon Greece you are dying, soon-to-be dead. Wanna ya gonna do? Allow yourselfs to be f*cked again and again. Crazy.
Damn, that's like, necrophilia.
Greeks DID invent the term.
a word that sums up this whole charade quite apropriately.
haha, what is the term for f*cking a zombie?
Stiffing a stiff.
Oh fuck - stop it - I'm crying real frigging tears - this is way way to true
Aaah dutch politicians. Still no clue. They said exactly the same about Iceland, not so long ago (it's a year,already?)
Their issue is now how to plan their political carreer around the proverbial greek iceberg. Which will be proven to be impossible, since they "promised" all the money that went south will somehow magically be paid back to taxpayers that coughed it up.
Yup, same deal as in july 2010. Nothing learned. Oh and the Netherlands contributed quite a lot to the IMF as well.
Aaaaaand it's gone.
It's going to get nasty very quickly. Holland, great country fine women, just dropped more madness. The Greeks will lose it completley now.
I the only one who can't mod parent (2180101) up (nor down)? Firefox 9.0
permabears = dime a dozen cynics
A couple years ago I would agreed with you. But back then we had 10 T in debt, AAA credit and a 20 oz Pepsi cost $1.25 here. None of that shit is true today because we have done 2 or 3 Greenspan Puts too many and the sizes of these puts are beyond scope as proven by demonomics images.
Just buy stocks and shut the hell up then.
any central bank of any significance is gong to print. We all know it. That is historically good for stocks at least in nominal terms. Zerohedge on twitter is just missing pom poms to cheer collapse.
I've been saying to buy stocks or two years now. In the end it won't mean shit bc you will be paid in worthless iat, but hey, at least you can tell your riends you double bagged WFM.
Mr Lennon Hendrix, it looks like the f's on your keyboard are _ucked. Or maybe there's a problem with your le_t index _inger.
That's all folks! Handing out Benjamins on President's day. How appropriate.
Can you have a debt write-off that exceeds 100% ???
You bet, because what they will eventually write-off will be far more than what they could have written off two years ago.
I can't figure out if it is a tragedy, a comedy, a romantic comedy (Merkel and Sarkozy on deck for tomorrow), an action/adventure, or a cliff-hanging Saturday afternoon serial.
I'm gonna have to go with soap opera - probably spnsored by Tide HE with Acti-Lift (R) because there is so much rinse and repeat, AND "Loads of Hope". (TM)
http://www.tide.com/en-US/product/tide-he.jspx
You guys are mad.... you seriously think the Europeans are going to let their beloved euro burn as a result of Greece.
Think about it, stronger together, print a few EUR and the problem will be a less of a problem. It's not only uncle Ben who knows to print. The Europeans are moving on the correct path, which is to eventually print and print to match Ben.
Short term this is very good for a EUR bounce. With a massive retail short, this baby will fly when Europe opens for business......
For the TAs - I see an Inv H&S in the 30 min chart, 10/2 - 16/2 - 21/2 - there is potential for a 3 cent move.......
This just shows the insanity of politicians who know nothing about economics, business, or currencies. They do whatever is needed to continue to get fat, steal money, increase their benefits, perks and learn new ways to take from the people they are supposed to protect and represent. They know this will not work. But it will give them time to shore up their own personal wealth even more, the people be damned.
Yes, I am talking about US. And it is the same in Europe. When will it end? When?