Presenting The Full Greek (Un)Sustainability Analysis - Take It Away German Media
You read headlines that Greece is saved (in a carbon copy release from July 21). Now read the truth behind the lies - presenting the 9 page (so it's brief enough) Greek sustainability (or lack thereof) analysis.
Here is the punchline:
The debt trajectory is extremely sensitive to program delays, suggesting that the program could be accident prone, and calling into question sustainability (Table 2). Under the tailored scenario described above, the debt ratio would peak at 178 percent of GDP in 2015. Once growth did recover, fiscal policy achieved its target, and privatization picked up, the debt would begin to slowly decline. Debt to GDP would fall to around 160 percent of GDP by 2020, well above the target of about 120 percent of GDP set by European leaders. Financing needs through 2020 would amount to perhaps €245 billion. Under the assumption that stronger growth could follow on the eventual elimination of the competiveness gap, the debt ratio would slowly converge to that in the baseline, but likely only in the late 2020s. With debt ratios so high in the next decade, smaller shocks would produce unsustainable dynamics, leaving the program highly accident-prone.
And if the downside case means the country is about to need 100% of its GDP in additional funding needs, the reality is that this number most likely be 200%, bringing the total bailout bill for Greece to nearly 3x its GDP!
Becase wait, there's more: the downside case assumes -1.0% GDP decline in 2013. As a reminder, in Q4 Greek GDP imploded by -7%! Somehow we are to believe that within a year, the country will not only turn around its economy, which is foundering courtesy of infinite austerity and striking tax collectors, but almost generate growth???
The German media is about to have a field day.