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Presenting The Full Greek (Un)Sustainability Analysis - Take It Away German Media
You read headlines that Greece is saved (in a carbon copy release from July 21). Now read the truth behind the lies - presenting the 9 page (so it's brief enough) Greek sustainability (or lack thereof) analysis.
Here is the punchline:
The debt trajectory is extremely sensitive to program delays, suggesting that the program could be accident prone, and calling into question sustainability (Table 2). Under the tailored scenario described above, the debt ratio would peak at 178 percent of GDP in 2015. Once growth did recover, fiscal policy achieved its target, and privatization picked up, the debt would begin to slowly decline. Debt to GDP would fall to around 160 percent of GDP by 2020, well above the target of about 120 percent of GDP set by European leaders. Financing needs through 2020 would amount to perhaps €245 billion. Under the assumption that stronger growth could follow on the eventual elimination of the competiveness gap, the debt ratio would slowly converge to that in the baseline, but likely only in the late 2020s. With debt ratios so high in the next decade, smaller shocks would produce unsustainable dynamics, leaving the program highly accident-prone.
And if the downside case means the country is about to need 100% of its GDP in additional funding needs, the reality is that this number most likely be 200%, bringing the total bailout bill for Greece to nearly 3x its GDP!
Becase wait, there's more: the downside case assumes -1.0% GDP decline in 2013. As a reminder, in Q4 Greek GDP imploded by -7%! Somehow we are to believe that within a year, the country will not only turn around its economy, which is foundering courtesy of infinite austerity and striking tax collectors, but almost generate growth???
The German media is about to have a field day.
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Can I get an update on the press conference...?
ECB are going to forgo profits on bond swaps. Nice. Cue rating agencies downgrades. The EZ bond market just threw the rule book out. What the hell...the ECB has thrown out every rule you can think of, it's a rogue printing press acting like a governing body.
Private sector is going to tear this deal apart. Goodbye the cartel EU/IMF/ECB master plan, too f*cking smart for your own good.
Going to get messy...
BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)--The success of a second, EUR130 billion aid package for Greece cleared early Tuesday by euro-zone finance ministers depends on the reaction of private-sector investors to changes in the parameters for a "voluntary" swap of their Greek bond holdings, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said.
The finance ministers said that in coming days, Greece will start a debt swap that will ask private bondholders to accept a cut of 53.5% on the face value of their Greek bonds.
"All is still pending what the reaction of the private sector" will be, Schaeuble said at a news briefing after the finance ministers meeting.
Eurogroup finance ministers were gathering here Monday and early Tuesday looking to sign off on the new Greek aid deal to reduce Greece's debt level and allow it to stay in the euro zone.
Schaeuble also said he expects the International Monetary Fund to make a "significant contribution" to the second Greek aid package. He didn't say how high he expects that contribution to be.
That looks an awful lot like they don't have a PSI agreement. They held their silly ass meeting and they don't have the most important part of it in place.
They are going to have to threaten jail and business license suspension for these banks to eat $50 billion and the American hedgies are immune to both.
What the hedgies are not immune to is the threat of the type used by then-Car Tsar Steve Rattner, when he was insisting junior subordinated debtholders were superior to senior Chrysler debtholders, and who was taped by at least one HF manager saying, "I'll sick the IRS not only on you, but on every single investor in your fund".
Any HF manager who wishes to visit the fleshpots of Europe anytime soon might fall prey to this type of coercion. Back a wolf into a corner and the fangs come out.
Of course, some HF manager with a blocking position in some Greek issue, and who knows he is going to use that block, could clean up going short EURUSD and Eurobanks right about now. Then again, the Eurocrats would try to nail him for trading on inside information.
I'm slow, also i've had several beers: if the 'tailored downside' (whatever that means) is factoring in an already-optimistic -1% GDP growth in 2013, what does the *baseline* assume? Actual positive growth?
*European Commissioner Olli Rehn said there will also be permanent representatives of the troika--the ECB, International Monetary Fund, European Commission--on the ground in Greece to monitor the program.
Nasty.
Just to be clear, with all the debt as a percentage of GDP mumbo jumbo, in 2020 if the stars come into alignment and ratio of Greek debt to GDP falls to 117%, the total absolute debt will have climbed relentlessly for another 8 years. The only way any of this works out for debtor nations all over the planet is if world GDP (and the GDP of individual debtor nations) grows for ever and ever - amen.
It's a money making opportunity - that's what we are all here for isn't it?
'Fill your wellington boots' (with money) as we say here in Ireland.
"and privatization picked up,"
uh, er - Just how much "privatization" are we talking about here?
Bernakobama market reaches its target?
12926.87 13000.0 73.13Calling this happy crappy a Greek bail-out is just so wrong.
What these deals are, in essence, are sovereign NINJA, or in this instance, lenders liar loans (LLL's) to keep the lenders, and arms dealers to Greece in the money for a bit longer.
Hey WB7, how about the figure heads of the RRE implosion redone with eurocrats?
OK,
The deal is done, but, no, it is not over yet.
Now we have work out the Anglo bankruptcy.
I can hardly fucking wait
This last year and a half of listening to so many experts here rag on the Europeans was bad enough.
Now I have to listen to the same assholes tell all their opinions, rumors, and speculations for how long?
I am certain that it will be a lifetime of bullshit for this oldman
At least I live on a Pacific ocean beach near the equator where clothing is required but never necessary; I have the climate, good health, and enough to get by on
I'm spoiled om
I have a question.
I'm hearing Greek workers are still going to their jobs despite not being paid in months. Are employers still remitting income taxes on the (unpaid) wages to the gov? Anyone know?
Nope.
No pay, no taxes.
Zero is zero.
I would have quit and have done so on zero dot zero zero paychecks.
Okay, is good then, thanks. Would sorta be a(nother) slap if the employers were paying the gov but not the workers. Of course if Brussels gets it's way that's exactly what will happen.
As long as there are cans and roads to kick them down: No credit event! No credit event! No credit event! Besides the usual bond holders, is the bond insurers (5 biggest US-Investmentbanks; those guys that underwrite CDS without re-insuring them) that had to be, have been and will be bailed out.
...the unworthy Europeans, who in 1945 “took Europe down” from “Mount Olympus” and in 2012 relinquished “enslaved” Europe to the Phoenician loan sharks.
Germans are proved to be the easy solution to breach Europe’s door. Whoever wishes to “set foot” on Europe and demolish it, the only thing he has to do is to “fool” the Germans. For a second time in less than fifty years, Europe’s idiots become the victims of foreigners and they serve their interests at the expense of Europe …it is for the second time that they take money from foreigners and they turn against their European “brothers” under their lenders’ orders …it is for the second time that the family’s fool takes “candies” from the “#r” of the neighbourhood in exchange to get him into the “bedroom” where the younger “siblings” sleep …In the “bedroom” which is common today due to the European Union...
Germany handed all the European countries over to the Jewish loan sharks, by naively believing that this way they would let Germany free. Germany put the European family at the “target” of the “markets” and it is collecting profits every time one of its members gets “executed”. The loan sharks who pretend to be the “hunters” are shooting safely in the European “hen house” because Germany has managed to “raise walls around” Europe. One after the other, Europeans are destroyed so that Merkel can pay the stupid and artificial German debts to the loan sharks.
As in all previous instances, once again its “fairy tale” is extremely misleading. Nazi Germany who used to destroy Europe in the name of the Greek ideals, does the same thing today. The surrendered, corrupting, competitive after receiving subsidies and extremely anti-European Germany pretends to be the unrivalled European power that fights for the European unity and against the corruption. This country that took advantage of the unification to serve its national interests, requires from the other countries to sell themselves out in the name of this unification. This country that even today keeps corrupting anyone around it, it threatens the corrupted ones. It “vomited” over a whole continent and now it is looking for the “spot” on its victims to punish them.
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/02/germany-disgrace-of-europe.html
_____________________
The German traitors of Europe along with the Phoenicians from Asia may have forced Europe to get down from the "back” of the Greek “bull”, but it remains to be seen how they shall pull it through with the “bull”.
Authored by PANAGIOTIS TRAIANOU
blablabla - from your rant I get that you are 100% satisfied from your politician's performance since 1974, eh?
"Nazi Germany who used to destroy Europe in the name of the Greek ideals, does the same thing today"
IMHO you suffer from this "we invented Europe & the West so you owe us" desease that many countrymen of yours have.
Get your corruption and tax system in order, grab some political sanity and for Pete's sake get in your head that the diplomatic stance of your country has been based on lies for decades and is at the moment in shambles...
-----
and no, the bull that stole Europe was not "Greek" - per definition, since there was no Greece yet in the myth, Zeus had to form it yet ;-)
You better go back to school and open some books.
It is obvious you have no idea about Greece and especially the history of Greece!
With regards the corruption, well, I guess, apart not knowing anything about history, you do not follow the news as well:
German president resigns and could face prosecution in corruption scandalhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/17/german-president-christian-w...
So, Ghordius, before you speak, I would adive you to read the whole article here and then, feel free to comment with real arguments as the article states: http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/02/germany-disgrace-of-europe.html
Thank you
Olympia, look, I know your country, I love it and I love your people. I did quite a lot of business in Greece, btw, as I did in Turkey. And I think I know something about history... I did read the article when it came out.
I can start with one comment: if you think that you are the absolute model for all europeans - than show it. The Germans might prosecute their former President for some quite petty peculation - what about your politicians?
All I've seen in the last decades is corruption, corruption, corruption. Hell, I don't mind to have an envelope ready for the doctor that is supposed to treat me for free - but there are limits to corruption until the systems break down. You have reached it some years ago.
Answer my question: do you know your diaspora people in Germany? Do they share your views about "those absolute failures of Europeans"?
Look, the Germans "as people" are still your biggest supporters - but your politicians lied to them too much. Mend it. You'll need supporters in the future.
Ghordius, now we start talking.
Basically, we agree on all the points you have just mentioned.
Greece and Greek do not need to talk in order to show that they have been - and still are - the raw model of Europe (don't forget Europe is of Greek origin as well)
you are absolute right about the corrupted politicians that perform in Greece (Notice, I do not call them Greek Politicians). This corrputed system in Greece is something that will end soon! Believe me! I guarantee you that time has come.
If you can read German, I would invite you to read this article:
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2011/11/deutschland-das-hayvan-europas...
From reading the aforementioned you will understand that our point of view is that the German people fall in the same trap as the Greeks. Therefore, I will also agree with you that support among people (from all nations) is very inportant.
Finally, at least, through an initial conflict, we get to know each-other's views a bit better.
Thank you for your time.
thank you for yours. I did read the article, my German is way better than my Greek...
I see a lot of mentioning of Jews, Germans, etc. in the article. I'd say it is a serial misapplication of Greek logic, I don't think Epimides would be happy about it. Not all banksters are jewish, not all Germans are imperialists, etc. (OK, I'm guilty, I do hold Germans to be generally cultural barbarians, this includes part of my family)
I see it as a "gut-feeling" propaganda rant. Perhaps liberating, even necessary as much as deplorable but anyway not constructive, also in the sense of the support all peoples should share.
You might avoid to call the politicians Greek, though they do shape the direction and the obligations the republic takes. And the envelopes they share are and will always be in direct proportion to the envelopes the people share in their daily business. Corruption might start at the top, but it is then feeded from the bottom. I do hope that the strong national sense your contrymen have might help them to recognize this, soon. We europeans have nearly run out of envelopes - if we run out of constructive spirit we're toast...
Well, how do you like your toast; with strawberry jam or marmalade or just plain simple butter?
If the Euro techno-bums now row like Argonauts we might just make it to Colchis land!
Watch out for the fleece with golden curls and churlish guardians of Banksta land trolls who say "we want you to plant lost teeth to protect our fleece".
Gotta be smart as Jason to get round that! By throwing a rock that rocked the teeth-soldiers into autosuicide.
The way to go with the Banksta breed! "Autosuicide" them all, with a little help from friends...after all what are friends for!
Jason - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Really helpful attitude, you Greek idiot. Spitting at your bailout pals. You are the very definition of human trash and your ancestors would be so ashamed of you they would kill you.
so does this deal fuck any creditors that are taking that 53.5 % haircut?
It's not just the 53,5% - if you consider the low interest rate of the new bonds they will get in exchange it will total to about 75%
I haven't completed the analysis, and Tyler will no doubt beat me to it, but if one considers the net loss to GDP from austerity, then in order to meet growth targets and revenue targets, the Greek private sector---still using the euro as its currency---looks like it must somehow grow about 8% per year.
That's a lot of olive oil.
If TPTB decide to bail-out every systemic risk they will render insuring companies worthless. However, even these companies can be bailed out. Collapse now only seems to be based on psychology. As long as the people are happy (they will be happy until they die of starvation on the streets) collapse will be "printed" into the future.
This isn't a deal and is not even close and these fucks know it:
Really, you stupid fucks??? You make stupid and unreal assumptions and then say it is probable that the marks won't be met??? How about an increase globally in gasoline prices is that one of those pesky "market related constraints"???
This is a deal for the next two years : its maintaining the house of cards of the world financial construct, Pax Americana and "print to infinity", beyond the re-elections of the Oligarchy leaders in first world : Obammy, Sarkozy, Merkel; now in charge of "fronting" the West's political leadership in this period of turmoil, where the "socialised debt" and "privatised profit" mantra is the sick joke sung in the corridors of power. Nation state leaders are surrogates for Oligarchy leaders behind the curtain, with all their stashed weath is Multinationals and the global banking cabal; all parked in Cayman Treasure Island constructs. Nobody can touch that treasure hoard of the Sea captains of western Barbary Coast!
THEY, the leaders, CAN'T see beyond that in this maelstorm. So it serves their purpose. Greece is the fly in the ointment. The real tsunami is debt mountain, bank dominoes falling, and its inevitable consequences for First World Power structure in the next thirty years.
From this inextricable, globally integrated and incestuous, western Oligarchy perspective the writing is on the wall :
1° Power is inexorably moving to East and South. Chindia, Brazil and others, the new players on global scene.
2° THe debt mountain condemns first world to austerity for ten years or more. At the heart of this is the energy blood line of all industrial growth. A new paradigm has to emerge, free of ME OIL pipeline. It is key to Western resurgence. The West has twenty to thirty years to make it to this new frontier on a MASSIVE SCALE, that will require huge reset and way of life change. That's the price to stay in the race.
Financial austerity and modes of life change and energy paradigm construct are all part of the same integrated Gordian knot. We have to solve it or we regress into civilization decadence.
3° In the interim period the drums of war and the MIC-police state construct will be a vital fractal line between old model first world and new model second world. If the West continues going down this frontal "clash of civilization" route; all the while supporting retrograde Wahhabist regime and Israeli zionism, two pillars of profound decadence protecting Pax Americana oil patch construct, they will further sink into the mire of untenable power play and its devastating consequences.
We are what we do. And the TEmplars showed us that route was sterile. It will only lead to the emergence of "gunpowder" empires in that zone; Mamluk, Ottoman and Safavid, Tamerlanish, Moghul type reconfigurations that will repel Western implication in that zone to a "fall of Constantinople" type end. All attempts of "divide and rule" play is now perceived as "deja vu" strategy that they, second world re-emergence candidates, won't fall for anymore. Machiavelli's legacy, now torn asunder by rinse and repeat that has made it a stale performance of western deceit. Vain Hubris of uber-alles mindset, frivolous conceit, if we think they will fall for it again and again.
History repeats and we'll all have to pray that the West finds a new frontier like CHristopher Columbus; maybe on the Moon!
One thing is sure an Oligarchy never survives long if it is totally divorced from the people of its cultural socle, its home base. It ends badly for the Oligarchs. No country for Bluebeards, they end keel-hauled by enemy or perpetual wanderers on their own ships, like the flying dutchman.
Happy dreaming fellow traveller!
EVENTS AND FACTS OF THE WEEK:-
(1) GREECE DEBT IS UNSUBSTAINABLE AND GREECE WILL DEFAULT AND LEAVE THE EURO AREA BY ITS OWN ADMISSION TO SURVIVE THE PRESSURES FROM THE TROIKA.
(2) THE GDP TO DEBT RATIO OF GREECE WILL WORSEN AND CAN NEVER BE BROUGHT DOWN TO REASONABLE LEVELS.
(3) AFTER GREECE, PORTUGAL, IRELAND AND SPAIN WILL FOLLOW.
(4) ITALY WILL NEED NEW FUNDING FROM THE ECB SOME TIME THIS YEAR
(5) THE EURO WILL CRASH VS. DOLLAR TO 1.12.
(6) BEST CURRENCIES TO BE IN ARE MEXICON PESO, CANADIAN DOLLAR AND BRASILIAN REAL PERIOD.
(7) THE LTRO WONT BE SUFFICIENT TO CALM MARKETS NEXT WEEK AND ECB WILL CONTINUE PRINTING MONEY AND BUYING SPANISH, PORTUGAL AND ITALIAN DEBT.
(8) UK, FRANCE AND ULTIMATELY GERMANY WILL BE DOWNGRADED BY S&P AND MOODYS
(9) GOLD WILL SPIKE TO 2010 DOLLARS THE OUNCE BY FIRST WEEK OF MARCH
(10) ISRAEL AND US WILL ATTACK IRAN AND OIL PRICES WILL SPIKE TO 130 DOLLARS A BARREL IN MARCH.
(11) BEST PERFORMING FIXED INCOME OF THE YEAR:- MEXICO, BRASIL, CANADA AND VENEZUELA AS PETRO DOLLARS WILL MAKE THESE NATIONS MUCH RICHER IN THE LONG RUN.
Small detail: they assume the Greek debt is going to peak and then go down but that assumption is fatally wrong.
We have entered the final phase of this debt spiral which means it will only get worse not better. Game over bitchez!
This getting to be like the Israelites in Exodus 5 with Pharoah "Ye shall no more give the people straw to make brick, as heretofore: let them go and gather straw for themselves" in this case The Banks being Egypt. Economies are supposed to be about the economic and social activities of the people within them rather than Government and Banks conspiring to enslave them. This situation is simply ridiculous and began with Gordon Brown being rolled over by UBS implants in the Treasury duping him into opening Treasury vaults to Casino Banks to continue their gambling, followed by Paulson and his TARP slush fund. The only difference is that the "TARP" is swallowing whole nation states now like some out-of-control fusion reaction
Does this mean that Greece can now double-up their war ship and fighter jet orders from the U.S. and France? Watch for all the political glad-handing over this turning of water into wine miracle! I think that next month they're preparing for the miracle of the fishes, or is it the walking on water?
don't forget the Dutch submarines and the Italian and German frigates
Charles Dallara (IIF Managing Director): "were quite confident"...for a second bailout you should be a hell of a lot more then QUITE CONFIDENT, You should be borderline dead on. KICK THAT CAN DOWN THE ROAD http://www.evtv1.com/player.aspx?itemnum=1062
This is obamanomics with protected growth of %4 which won't happen either
Is this scribid sheet "Greece: Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis" from the ECB?
Thanks for informing me!
Rgds from Germany
ok, lets start with those 53.5% 107billion euro Haircuts then
cue up everyone, Goldman Sachs is breaking down the door to be the first in line...
eager little beavers those socialist minded hedgefunds...
almost too good to be true...
well, actually there are not really any takers yet...not even the IMF, especially Not the IMF.
Lagarde is just trying to round up the usual suspects to trick Angela Merkel into topping up the ESM
to make up for the shortfall....
Tim Geitner on the Phone:
Are the Germans paying up yet ?
wr;)
Die privaten Gläubiger - also vor allem Banken und Hedgefonds - verzichten zusätzlich zu den öffentlichen Hilfen auf 53,5 Prozent ihrer Forderungen. Das entspricht einem Schuldenschnitt von etwa 107 Milliarden Euro, etwa sieben Milliarden mehr als zuvor geplant. (hahahahaha) http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/0,1518,816486,00.html
This Percentage GDP figure is a joke with a GDP that was based on leverage rather than real output. What about Debt Per Capita as a ratio ? That is really the meaningful figure when set against Real Output Per Capita.
The way politicians use percentages is akin to poets and bottles. We need to know how much of the annual output of a Greek Worker will go to himself and his family; how much to The State, and how much to The Banks
The Peter Orzag school of bullshit graphs.
the Greek economy is a lot like
the Greek National Railway...
where there are more Employees than Passengers and it would be cheaper to sent Passengers by Taxi, than by the 3 million euros per day loss making Greek National Railway, where trains manned by drivers being paid as much as $130,000 a year frequently run empty.
In 2009, bankers for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley pitched the Greek government on a plan to overhaul its money-losing railway system. Among the ideas was to lay off half of the system’s 7,000 workers and have the government take on roughly half of the company’s 8 billion euros in debt.
In fact the debate, a longstanding one in Greece, has taken on new urgency of late. For the better part of a decade, Greece has provided sovereign backing to Hellenic Railways, thus allowing it to borrow billions from accommodating foreigners even though the company’s finances are so skewed that it pays three times as much on interest expenses than it collects in revenue.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/21/business/global/21rail.html
It seems the Greek tragicomedy has come off the rails long ago...
wr;)
government will shortly submit to the Greek parliament
the government said on Tuesday it would pass legislation that would allow it to enforce losses on bondholders
http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/11/53476
A Bond:
In finance, a bond is a debt security, in which the authorized issuer owes the holders a debt and, depending on the terms of the bond, is obliged to pay interest (the coupon) to use and/or to repay the principal at a later date, termed maturity. A bond is a formal contract to repay borrowed money with interest at fixed intervals (semi annual, annual, sometimes monthly).[1]
(a formal contract used to mean protected by law… going forward it will mean the "law means absolutely fucking nothing" !)
Is this scribid sheet "Greece: Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis" from the ECB?
Thanks for informing me!
Rgds from Germany
I saw the option below and was like, wow that seems like a good step, then I read the footnote...hahaa
"Restructuring of Greek bonds held by the National Central Banks (NCBs) of
the euro area in their investment portfolios1
Including Greek government bonds held by NCBs in their investment portfolio in the debt exchange in PSI
would reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2020 by about 3½ percentage points (net,
after accounting for sums needed to recapitalize the Bank of Greece)."
Footnote number 1...."The ECB Governing Council does not support this approach."
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