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Presenting Goldman's Six Bullet Point Forecast Of Global Policy Intervention To Prevent The Re-Depression
While the bulk of his weekly parable is primarily about the Swiss Franc (certainly worth the read coming from an old FX trader), the subtext is far more nuanced, and as usual, presents what "next steps" will be in terms of policy response from the G-20 to prevent the end of the Status QuoTM. For all those who ridiculed us about consistently presenting what Goldman believes is in the economy's "best interest", we have only one thing to say: QE3 is coming. Just as Hatzius demanded it several months ago (as predicted by us back in January). Indeed, the instruction flow never errs: from Goldman to the Fed; from the Fed to the SecTres and teleprompter; from theteleprompter and out of taxpayers' pockets. So speaking of flow charts, here is what the world should expect, tongue in cheek, in terms of G-20 intervention over the next several months, to prevent a swift plunge into the mother of all depressions. 1. Clear, credible, targeted action from President Obama and Congress to create US jobs and stimulate domestic investment; 2. If not more QE from the Fed, an ongoing clarity about their bias; 3. A quick resurrection of a credible budget in Italy; 4. A move towards an interest rate cut from the ECB. There is no inflation problem and the Euro Area economy has weakened a lot; 5. Some indication by German Chancellor Merkel that as part of a more fiscally coherent EMU, Germany would accept the principle of Euro Bonds; 6. A clear signal from Beijing that once inflation has peaked, monetary tightening is finished. In other words: not just more of the same, but much, much more of the same. In yet more other words: insanity defined.
Full letter from O'Neill
In the context of the ongoing challenges in the US, the Euro Area and elsewhere, this week I have chosen to focus on the Swiss Franc currency. Throughout the market mayhem of August, and its subsequent carry over into the start of September, the Swiss Franc has been sharing in the roller coaster rides of global markets. As any an old bold foreign exchange trader will tell you, “Swissy never lies,” i.e., there is belief amongst some international market participants that the Swiss currency’s movements have some mystical powers that shadow all the world’s ups and downs. The Franc does well when the world is a mess, and vice versa. Because the strengthening of the Franc in the summer of 2011 has been so dramatic, it is arguably the number one economic and business issue in Switzerland. As a result, Swiss policymakers have become eager to reverse the Franc’s strength. For a few days in late August it looked as though they had succeeded. But as last week saw more bad news in the US and the Euro Area, the Franc came roaring back. Can the Swiss do anything about their currency given the turmoil elsewhere, especially in the Euro Area? And if they succeed, does this, oddly, herald a better fortune for the rest of the world?
Having spent a large part of my career in the foreign exchange market and also quite a bit of it employed in a Swiss bank, I am most fond of all matters Swiss, including the much fabled belief that “Swissy never lies.” Switzerland is a small, very open economy. If exchange rates ever matter for the relative performance of an economy, you can be sure Switzerland would be amongst the top candidates. So, in a period of extreme movements, you can expect strong economic consequences for Switzerland and occasionally, dramatic efforts by its policymakers to do something to reverse the currency move. In virtually all cases because of Switzerland’s history of economic stability, low inflation, neutrality, safety and calm, the currency issue is one of excessive strength. This is often because in times of great uncertainty, the Franc is immediately attractive to nervous wealth holders in some part of the world. In the period since 2008, and especially in the past 12 months, the Franc has been perceived as a haven from an increasing variety of hazards: the financial chaos of 2008-2009, the rising troubles and revolts in the Middle East, the fears about the standing of the US in the world, and especially, the increasing fears about Europe.
Switzerland is landlocked and surrounded by members of the European Monetary Union (EMU). It is bordered, for the most part by the three largest EMU constituents: France, Germany and Italy. These three countries are also Switzerland’s largest export markets along with the US ? although as with many other countries, export growth to the BRICs and other Growth Markets is large. The scale of the recent acceleration of the Franc is best seen in the context of a chart showing its 25-year performance against the Euro (assuming the Euro would have existed before 1999). The chart shows the Franc against the Euro and its 200-day moving average. As you can see, for a large part the Franc traded within a 1.50-1.70 range. Looking at such a chart, you can understand more easily stories of mass shopping trips from citizens of Swiss borderline towns into Germany, France and Italy. If the Swiss authorities can’t reverse a lot more of the Franc’s recent strength, Swiss retail outlets will struggle to survive – never mind some of their international companies.
I shall return to the Swissy-specific issue later, but let me now bring in the latest developments from around the world this past week.
THE US. SOFT BUT NOT OUT.
Last week was another one of “those” weeks for the US. Much of the evidence continued to suggest signs of a modest improvement in the US economy in the third quarter only for a vital statistic to significantly disappoint. For it to be the jobs data again ahead of the Labour Day weekend is more than a touch ironic, but the numbers reverberated all over the world and create the impression that the US is really struggling to stay out of recession. More fiscal and perhaps monetary action now seems pretty inevitable, and markets partially adjusted for this Friday. Next week’s now eagerly awaited address from President Obama is likely to be the next key focus.
Historically, even before the Euro was introduced, the Swiss Franc typically shared in the periods of excess Dollar movement. It often strengthened more than the DM when the Dollar fell and weakened more when the Dollar rose. In this context, part of the Swiss Franc’s strength since 2009 is clearly because of the US economy’s struggle and the aggressive bias to US monetary policy. To some degree, the Franc’s recent behaviour is no different than the historic norm. The important exception is that the other major currencies are deemed less attractive, especially now that there is no Deutschmark.
While many people are now positioned for an “inevitable” slip back into recession and/or a multi-year period of Japan- style weak growth in the US, this is still far from inevitable in my view. I would expect repeated efforts by US policymakers to stimulate the economy. I continue to believe that, if carefully thought out, more targeted, specific fiscal measures, or measures targeted towards especially weak sectors like housing, might have some effect. News (not given much media attention) that the US fiscal balance in 2011 is likely to be considerably less bad than originally thought by the Congressional Budget Office adds to the potential scope of such measures.
CHINA NOT SENDING ANY EASING SIGNALS – YET.
Following on from the central bank’s decision the week before to broaden the application of reserve requirements, any ideas of an early reversal of caution in Beijing were (for now) further laid to rest this past week. The all important NDRC, the National Development Research Council, talked about continued inflation challenges and the President stated that controlling inflation remained the number one policy priority. We await the August CPI release, probably the week after next, with great anticipation.
In my view, a reversal of Chinese inflation and anti-inflation policies remains absolutely key to resurrecting a bull market in global equities (and this week’s moves by the Brazilians show that these things can happen pretty quickly).
EURO AREA TROUBLES GET WORSE.
When it seemed it would be impossible for the August mess to get any worse in the Euro Area, the start of September brings evidence that indeed it can. In addition to the complex political environment in Germany, Greece appears to be descending into further economic and policy turmoil with lots of suggestions that there is little progress on reform. But most importantly, within two weeks of supposedly agreeing to implement a tough new budget, the Italian government appears to be in some disarray as it has backtracked on some of the more unpopular measures. Many European policymakers appear to be in a state of shock about this particular twist. This is not surprising given the intensity of debate about ECB actions to support the beleaguered Italian bond market.
In addition to all of this, the Euro Area economic data has continued to take a distinct turn for the worse and IMF Head Lagarde stated publicly what so many investors believe: that much of Europe’s banking system is undercapitalized.
All the above would be a nightmare for the Swiss authorities alone, but coming on top of the weak US payroll data and its implication for more expansive monetary actions, you can see how the Franc started to re-accelerate so much at the end of this week.
WHAT CAN THE SWISS (AND G20) DO?
The Swiss authorities face a huge challenge. If they are serious about trying to prevent the devastating damage that could result from the Franc’s strength, they will have to intervene even more and pursue the idea of a direct policy target - temporarily - for the Franc against the Euro. This would make it clear that Switzerland would offer no “safe haven” in the current environment.
What intrigues me more about the Franc over the next week or so, is what it will symbolize about the state of the world if the Swiss authorities decide to do more, or if they don’t. Since mid-August I have wondered repeatedly if it is perhaps (and increasingly) inevitable that we see some kind of co-ordinated G20 policies to support the world economy and markets. Seen within the context of other G20 actions, Swiss policy on the Franc might not only be successful, but herald a better period for markets.
In my view, the policy responses that are now needed include:
1. Clear, credible, targeted action from President Obama and Congress to create US jobs and stimulate domestic investment.
2. If not more QE from the Fed, an ongoing clarity about their bias.
3. A quick resurrection of a credible budget in Italy.
4. A move towards an interest rate cut from the ECB. There is no inflation problem and the Euro Area economy has weakened a lot.
5. Some indication by German Chancellor Merkel that as part of a more fiscally coherent EMU, Germany would accept the principle of Euro Bonds.
6. A clear signal from Beijing that once inflation has peaked, monetary tightening is finished.
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We are in a Depression.
Don't bother closing the barn doors, all the horses have left.
True, but don't worry, Hopey the Clown is going to engage his "laser focus" to create jobs for Americans. All is soon to be well. This is just a transitory soft patch, right?
Breaking News: Obama plans to create 480,000 TSA jobs, extending passenger screening to school bus riders. According to unnamed White House sources, the President will announce the TSA school bus program in his Sept 8 speech to Congress and will assert it needs to be done "for the children". The initiative also aims to reduce gang violence by providing good paying federal jobs for gang members. With the help of ACORN, the U.S. Department of Labor has signed a 20 year hiring agreement with a consortium of the Nation's premier gangs, including the Latin Kings, Bloods, Crips, MS-13, La Eme, etc.
It will be a field day for pedophiles. Random full body search of all kids! WOW!
Obama, Bonny Franks and all their homo-pervert friends will feel another Christ resurrection and America flushed down a toilet.
Can you guys tell me.....does the red pill really taste like pussy?
red pill taste like the pussy of your mother when she gave birth to you under the pain of childbaring and the blood of your father slaving away for 18 years of your life to feed you, cloth you, and put a roof over your head.
True, but don't worry, Hopey the Clown is going to engage his "laser focus" to create jobs for Americans. All is soon to be well. This is just a transitory soft patch, right?
Well done WonderDawg!
"There is no inflation problem and the Euro Area economy has weakened a lot."
Did he just say that? This is a joke right? Yes the Euro Area has weakened, but no inflation problem? I guess these guys butlers havn't told them about the inflation in food prices. What a joke.
http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/
Biflation...everything your need is rising...stuff you already own is losing value.
Goldman expects Merkel to make Germans except bailing out Greece, Italy and Spain. Me thinks NOT.
Merkel is a whore, cut from the same cloth as Obama, Bernanke, Bush, et al. Expect nothing less than the wholesale sellout of the German people, their future and children's future to bail Europe out. Keep kicking that can.
Gaining weight too. The pressure's getting to her.
That is right on the money. They will do anything and everything possible to keep up the house of cards.
Only as far as the plan calls for the house to be sustained - if not extended, in order to maximize the crash potential and intensity. But once the plan calls for the fortress to be built, you will be surprised how fast everybody that was sustaining it will suddenly want to sweep it away.
Please do not insult the HONEST work that whores perform daily all across the planet by comparing any of these sociopaths to them. A whore performs a real and tangible service at a set price. A gold digger performs similar services under guise of nebulous cause of love, exclusively for personal gain. Sociopaths like our politicians, teh fed, and banksters are operating on much more nefarious levels.
And always remember that a whore that claims they are not interested in money always want more than double the going rate and are no longer a whore, but, rather, a wholly other truly deranged ultra-vampiric being.
Support your local whore; at least over a politician and/or banker each and every time.
Oh and...........FUCK YOU GS!
PS Bill Gross was right, he was just a little early!
1. Clear, credible, targeted action from President Obama and Congress to create US jobs and stimulate domestic investment.
- he already tried to sell such a plan circa the debt ceiling talks, look where that got him ...
2. If not more QE from the Fed, an ongoing clarity about their bias.
- QE3 is inevitable, just look at UST and AU, just a question of timing and precisely how.
3. A quick resurrection of a credible budget in Italy.
- even if Berlusconi flips back to his original position, it is just as easy for him to flop away from any real austerity or otherwise credible fiscal policy again.
4. A move towards an interest rate cut from the ECB. There is no inflation problem and the Euro Area economy has weakened a lot.
- despite the very real consumer inflationary pressures, yes this is possible ...
5. Some indication by German Chancellor Merkel that as part of a more fiscally coherent EMU, Germany would accept the principle of Euro Bonds.
- you are JOKING, right? This would be political suicide for Merkel and I have never seen a more risk averse leader in the Western world in my lifetime. Merkel is already under enormous political pressure which is about to exponentially increase in the following eight weeks. If she ever espoused this principle it would be literally as she was about to be forced out of office anyway, i.e. out of her cold, dead hands.
6. A clear signal from Beijing that once inflation has peaked, monetary tightening is finished.
- how is demand from China going to realisitically make any difference to the world economy as the Western economies, tottering with long term public and private debt, increasing unemployment, rising cost of living and no savings, falter and stare into the abyss of Depression? Also, other BRICs are now starting to feel the pain (see Brazil and India).
wtf!...the only problem with EU is the (over-inflated) Euro. Drop the value of Euro to a third and the economy's fine, it's that simple.
How does that solve the unsustainable sovereign debt problem, and how does it make the banks suddenly solvent? It seems the EU's problems go way beyond the over-inflated value of the Euro.
The value of the Euro is going to drop by a third (as it implodes competely), and then we'll see if the economy is fine.
There's only one way to solve for an insolvent bank, raise capital. How does it parse unsutainable sov.debt, for one, it makes FDI cheaper. That's a big deal because it becopmes cheape to make a factory goods in EU rather than import them from Malaysia. The only question is the Energy bill, but EU is slated to add nine new nuclear plants and will most probably add many more than that, despite a doubling in the cost of new plants - you want to see manipulation & graft, take a look at European Energy!
These fools aren't going to stop until the entire system implodes. Then we'll be subject to endless volleys of "Nobody could have seen this coming!"
Why, why do we need "policy" responses? Let the markets fail. Housing prices: let them implode, millions of families will then be able to afford housing. Stop propping this disgusting wealth transfer from young to old, using still-wildly overpriced real estate as the transfer mechanism. Eurozone: let it implode, the government and bank debts can never, ever be repaid.
Well, of course you're right, but we are way beyond not responding and in Catch-22 mode were the world is doomed without them. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. All ponzis end the same but their creators will try everything to keep them going.
Everything is about the elitist Aristocrats who own the Bond holdings. They do not want to except they made a bad bet.
So they manipulate politicians, governments, companies and peoples to get what they want.
They do not care if they get paid in deflated dollars because they will just want more of them to compensate for the devaluation.
This is something the average person can not do. Big Ben does not print for the people. He prints for the elite.
The world would be a better place if we let all those who made a bad bet Fail. Flush the system.
Then it is a even playing field for everyone starting at Zero.
G-20. BINGO. The Great Intervention takes shape.
G20 didn't work out as each nation resorted back to money printing
Maybe GS should worry about fixing their own broken business before giving advice.
I know, it is all part of the same cabal.
Let's go through the list:
1. Not happening
2. Probably will happen
3. Not happening
4. Not happening next meeting - Trichet is clueless; probably wont happen til Draghi starts
5. Probably will happen eventually but that will bring Germany down
6. Not happening soon...
We're screwed
"This would make it clear that Switzerland would offer no “safe haven” in the current environment."
My god we can't allow any safe havens. The last refuge, that shiny stuff that never rusts.
There should be no safe haven, comrades, because at the end of the day you safe haven seekers caused this problem and when you are made to pay, it will stop.
/sarc
We can't solve insolvency of western economies because we have a far bigger problem, our politicians. That has to be fixed first, and it will not happen.
True the dishonesty of the social politic is what has created the insolvency.
1. Inside Obama's bank CEOs meeting - Eamon Javers - POLITICO.com
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/20871.html - CachedSimilar
Apr 3, 2009 – My administration is the only thing between you and the pitchforks...” ... who is standing between WE THE PEOPLE and your administration? ...
?
2. Obama to Bankers: I'm Standing 'Between You and the Pitchforks ...
blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2009/04/obama-to-banker.html - CachedSimilar
Apr 3, 2009 – "My administration is the only thing between you and the pitchforks," the ... Thanks, Mr. President for standing for the American people. Bamster ...
Wall Street Aristocracy Got $1.2 Trillion in Fed’s Secret Loans
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-21/wall-street-aristocracy-got-1-2-trillion-in-fed-s-secret-loans.html
PLUS!!!
SEC Covering Up Wall Street Crimes?
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/is-the-sec-covering-up-wall-street-crimes-20110817
Plus!!!
How about the $2.5 Trillion in Social Security Bailouts??
http://moneywatch.bnet.com/retirement-planning/video/good-news-on-social-security/478373/
What else do you need to know about QE-3???
When it gets here! Wall Street will continue to Rob "We the People" Blind!!
Law Enforcement will sit around on their FAT DOUGHNUT EATING ASSES!! and do NOTHING!!
Any Jobs that have NOT been moved to China Yet! will be!
http://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/2011/02/14/intelligence-community-fears-u-s-manufacturing-decline/
"since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Over the last ten years, China has mounted the biggest challenge to the U.S. manufacturing sector ever seen, threatening producers of steel, chemicals, glass, paper, drugs and any number of other items with prices they cannot match. Not coincidentally, the United States has lost an average of 50,000 manufacturing jobs every month during the same period."
So??? what is the Government going to do with this Bright Shinning Star of a Service Economy that we have left??? How will MORE!! Money to Wall Street help?? Wall Street has "Trillions sitting on the sidelines"!
http://blogs.reuters.com/reuters-money/2010/09/29/scared-investors-sitting-on-the-sidelines/
"As a result almost $11 trillion in cash is now parked throughout the banking system, according to research firm Strategic Insight."
Usually the idiot who stands in the way between pitch folk wielding mob and the criminal is the one who ends up dead with a pitch folk sticking out his back.
Obama took the wrong side.
"Swift targeted action" for jobs by Obummer?? lol! If you mean jobs for China maybe.
I look soon for the all-time motherlode of empty rhetoric spewing from the mouths of politicians the world over whose policies have fucked the world economy in the first place.
They are worried about jobs, sure, their own, as the chickens come home to roost.
If they are dumb enough to go with a QE3 of any size the resulting 10 dollar a gallon milk, 8 dollar a gallon gas and so on just might rouse the die hard fans of reality shows to wake up to reality reality.
Same broken record playing day after day. More stimulus. Any stimulus. These "pundits" are so clueless and so desperate to keep the Status Quo that they are actually playing it against themselves. The current fiat ponzi will implode, the only open questions are the timing and the impact of it. More of these failed policies will do only two things. Delay the inevitable and make the final outcome worse.
If you could give me a date for that implosion, it would really help.
I was truly thinking this was a watershed article.
I was TRULY.
Until I read that the POTUS needed to take Clear and Credible Action.
Until I read that similar Action was required of CONgress.
INcredible maybe.
Let's dial back a few Mondays ago.
Have they patched up the Death of the Credible USSA that occured on Debt Ceiling Monday?
Nope.
So the association of Clear and Credible with drooling feces throwers is Just INcredible.
Goldman having input in this subject is like asking John Wayne Gacy for advice on how to run a boys summer camp....You're just begging for trouble.
so if we entered a shallow recession in 2007/8 and we rebounded strongly and profits are "robust" and a "double dip" was improbable if not impossible, and the president is so adroit at undoing the bush legacy with many predicting 4% growth, then how in god's name is qe4 required? with so much recovery why is there any toxic debt left to be purchased by the fed? the propaganda is not making sense.....
Well, you can't get a global currency without destroying all of the major ones first. If that's the goal, then they're doing exactly what they need to do.
LOL
A little more Gravits, fellas.
Kinda late for more bullshite.
Let The Games Conclude(c)
So how many pretty paper dollars are in circulation and how many are stored on hard drives? If I have a couple of mil of the electronic ones at a place like BAC, should I feel comfortable that I can convert them to the ones on the pretty colored paper? Will they even give me 2 mil in pretty paper? What if the BAC hard drive crashes? Ben Wanker and the tax cheat are tracking all this, right? They are keeping the dollar sound, right?
It is a confidence ponzi game people. All you have to do is believe and hope there will continue to be lots of suckers.
The 'Swissie' may have been a safe haven currency in the past, but the Swiss are subject to the fiat reserve currency effect like all others. If they keep on printing just like all others, people in Switzerland will be making 200 chfr. an hour and pay 30 chfr for a loaf of bread, if they don't, nobody around the globe will be able to afford their chocolate and cheese.
Finally, ( halleluja) I believe, there is no way out for the status quo, and gold and silver will regain their rightful place as the reserve currency. The sooner everybody around the globe realizes the fact, the sooner sanity and accountability can return to finance and economies world wide. The imbecils chasing paper in all its forms have costly lessons coming their way.
The problem with gold is that it is a little expensive to melt into bullets.
?
I have a 3 bullet point argument for preventing re-recession:
1.Seize GS's assets, return their ill gotten gains to the treasury
2.turn over their senior partners & officers to the DOJ for criminal prosecution.
3.Give the scraps to the creditors and shareholders.
One problem. DOJ is a bigger joke than GS.
Once Trichet clears the way for cuts the EUR will quickly dive through 1.38 and then down to the low 1.30s. I see this unfolding in a mere 6 weeks time.
Will we see parity?
eurobonds will never work
Correct, for many reasons.
Is that all that needs to be done? Like the oil article this one is ridiculous as well. Italy needs to get its act together? Well I'll get right on it there tuff guy! Obviously the Swiss Franc soars because that's Europe's FDIC. End of story. What that has to do with the USA at a fundamental level is beyond me. To me it's pretty simple: is JP Morgan going to rearrange the financial system or are they going to wait around for Ben Bernanke to do it for them?
Never before have I ever wanted to serial stab a banking institution.
Of course the toxic monster living in D.C. doesn't realize that the problem IS THE MONSTER itself.
For this monster to do more is actually harmful. Everything it touches turns to shit. But the monster, well-intentioned and naive, is too stupid to know the problem IS THE MONSTER.
So Obama and the rest of the jokers feeding the monster, will continue to do so. And the monster will continue to live and terrorize simple, efficient business people. And eventually all the simple, efficient business people will have given up, and the monster will have nothing but itself to destroy.
Wait, what? Who's naive, here? You really think the monster "is too stupid to know the problem IS [ITSELF]"?
Please... it's 2011... you might be interested to study deep politics if you'd like to understand what's happening and what's coming.
AGREED 100%
(I never thought possible that I would ever say that about Goldman - and it ain't such a tough task either.)
Clarity from Fed? Zero interest rates for two years not clear enough?
Sort of like looking for the results of a horse race before it is run re. Italy, Germany, China!
Of course, now GS can blame any horse, for whatever happens! This is called forecasting. That is very "clear".
I have a five step plan for the squid to suck it bitchez.
The short-end of the yield curve (the money market), is already INVERTED based upon the remuneration rate (policy rate). .25% currently exceeds the "Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates" for 2 year governments.
John Maynard Keynes didn't understand that the deposit-taking, money creating, financial institutions (DFIs) don't loan out existing savings. That's why policy makers eliminated all REG Q CEILINGs. They did this even though the non-banks don't compete with the CBs (from a System's standpoint).
The fallout is that IOeRs are contractive by design; the principal cause of dis-intermediation (an outflow of funds from the non-banks), which induces debt deflation.
IOeRs stop (or retard), the flow of savings into real-investment. The higher the rates paid, the slower the money velocity, the greater the deceleration in gDp.
Goldman's opinion use to move markets.They have rapidly become a financial eunuch
1.DUH.Why do you think that any new program is going to be better than previous ones,especially in the context of a budget deal?
2.QE or clarity.10 year paper is lowerv than it was during the dperession.Thirty year not to far behind.Slightly lower interest rates will have no stimulate effect ,even on the stock market.
3.GIve me a break.World financial stability is dependent on the President of Italy.
4.?
5.Merkel is rapidly on the way out .Lokk at the most recent election. No way that Germany will be able to back any plan giving money to the irresponsible Southern tier.
6.You got this the wrong way around .The US should denounce this UNBELIEVABLY IRRESONSIBLE PATH OF MONETARY EASING AND STOP MANIPULATING INTEREST RATES.
can't wait for the investment bank profit downgrades and writedowns...and political/social backlash against QE3, bailouts and USD debasing. but Goldman should be shittin their panties on a China implosion + india implosion x geopolitical tensions = no major rally, just margin call chaos.
fuck em
How about every CB print and release One Trillion simultaneously?
7. The Easter bunny arriving.
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