This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Presenting An Iran Attack Probability Timetable And A Complete Geopolitical Outlook For The Middle East

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The folks at Religare Capital Markets have put together one of the better cheat sheets on a region that most of the big banks largely ignore: the Middle East, where day after day we get new and more troubling headlines of escalation, usually involving Iran and Israel. And since at the end of the day, in a resource-strapped world, the bottom line is always about energy, and oil, what happens in the MENA region is arguably far more important at the end of the day than who prints how much electronic paper/linen. But most important is probably the following analysis charting the probability of an attack of Iran by either Israel or the US. We were quite surprised to find that in Religare's opinion the probability of an Israeli-sourced attack on Iran hits a high of 50% sometime in early February, with the US contributing about 20% with a peak in May and just before the presidential elections. This is how they explain it: "The probability of an attack on Iran is now higher than ever. The only solution to the current crisis, diplomacy, is off the table due to politics and the focus is now shifting to regime change. We see the probability dropping mid-year, although US elections could increase the probability of a US attack significantly (unless Ron Paul steams ahead), as will Iran’s likely decision to move their centrifuges to reinforced facilities in Qom if not handled correctly (likely mid-year). We reiterate our view that the fallout may not be as bad as expected from an Israeli strike, horrendous from a US one." And if they are right, what happens to oil will likely be the biggest catalyst of events in 2012 - a topic PIMCO has already had some extended observations on.

Other big picture geopolitical observations on MENA:

The regional Cold War

 

The deployment of the Peninsula Shield Force to quash the uprising in Bahrain was the first act of a rapidly developing regional Cold War and was the first market of what was to be an increasingly independent and assertive foreign and security policy from the GCC and Iran. We do not see this as an ideological conflict, although old prejudices die hard, but rather a political one between countries that have gone from being heavily indebted to rapid growth in just over a decade and are now looking to project their control in their region. Local populations have also been a significant factor in this and we have seen increased budgets and reinforcement of traditional social contracts to provide the groundwork for foreign policy, as well as a focus on muting any internal security threats. Finally, the fall of OPEC and rise of the GCC as the owners of spare capacity has been an important one for the oil market, the results of which we are likely to see come through later this year when the oil price comes under pressure.

 

Israel’s increasingly fragile military hegemony and new arms race

 

Israel’s position as the regional military hegemon will come under increasing pressure in the coming years as tens of billions of dollars of weapons enter the region to challenge the ascendancy of Iran. Should Iran reach nuclear capability, most GCC states will also build their nuclear arsenals even while pursuing independent foreign policies that actively speak out against actions they disapprove of.

 

Rise of neo-Islamism and adjustment of jihadism

 

The Islamist groups that were demoted to social functions under a number of thee deposed regimes have now come to the fore in democratic elections and the rise of a more pluralistic neo-Islamism once they find their feet could have significant implications globally. Jihadist groups have become increasingly decentralized and used for political ends, with African jihadist groups a particular concern with many regions fertile for recruitment

 

Oil through the roof

 

Nobody really believed that we were approaching the point of maximum oil production in 2008, but they do now. The shifting structure of the oil market and increased interference means that prices are now predicted to be above $110 for the foreseeable future, representing a huge wealth transfer into this region. This is not sustainable, but should last 3-4 years at least.

Full report:

 

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sat, 01/07/2012 - 16:46 | 2042572 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Coverage of this topic is getting to absurd levels.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 16:53 | 2042585 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

...ready to fight back?...

...Fire! BiCheZ!...

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:01 | 2042602 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Time to make a pool:

I have MARCH 4th

Get it?  March forth.....

The winner gets a bsaket full of worthless fiat, eh?

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:08 | 2042615 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

1, 2, 3, 4,..
3-4!
1-2!

you down 4-$5?   L0L!!!

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:27 | 2042622 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Slewie, I think you need another bong rip

To me junker, it's a joke, ok?  He doesn't need another bong rip, he has had about five this morning....

Anyway, now that the angry poopsicle is putting in a barrel of oil, I think I will have to put in a few silver coins.  Anyone else?

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:46 | 2042667 wanklord
wanklord's picture

Stupid Animals,

As soon as war is on, you will certainly say good-bye to all of your ridiculous investments. In fact, you untalented brutes clearly fit in one of Leo Strauss’ (*) categories of society, The Vulgar Many:

“The Vulgar Many, are lovers of wealth and pleasure. They are selfish, slothful, and indolent. They can be inspired to rise above their brutish existence only by fear of impending death or catastrophe.”

(*) German philosopher, 1899-1973

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:06 | 2042802 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Tell the animals, "Then you die."

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:32 | 2042916 Manthong
Manthong's picture

 

Nlce to know they have us covered..

"Exclusive: West readies oil plan in case of Iran crisis

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/06/us-iea-contingency-idUSTRE8051FV20120106

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 22:56 | 2043131 CPL
CPL's picture

LOL!!  Anycase...did anyone notice if they rebuilt the storage facilites along with the required refineries in NOLA?

 

Neither did I.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 23:58 | 2043267 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

http://www.usak.org.tr/dosyalar/dergi/GDFiXn5khkA6rzYZZJkvIJ4kozf3Is.pdf

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/u-s-checking-possibility-of-pumping-oil-from-northern-iraq-to-haifa-via-jordan-1.98134

The United States has asked Israel to check the possibility of pumping oil from Iraq to the oil refineries in Haifa. The request came in a telegram last week from a senior Pentagon official to a top Foreign Ministry official in Jerusalem.

The Prime Minister's Office, which views the pipeline to Haifa as a "bonus" the U.S. could give to Israel in return for its unequivocal support for the American-led campaign in Iraq, had asked the Americans for the official telegram.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 09:30 | 2043883 Atlas Shrugged
Atlas Shrugged's picture

I find it funny that some BS research agency can assign some arbitary probabilty to some event occuring and expect to be taken seriously. Even funnier are the people that do.

15% chance in June, 5% in August, up to 20% in September, down to 10% in November, and back up to 50% in January.

Are these betting odds? What bollocks!

Then they go on to show how smart they are by forcasting how the attack probability changes throughout 2012.

Who comes up with this shit?

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 17:01 | 2044881 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

who comes up with this shit?

those who see  everything as a spread.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 23:05 | 2043150 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

No that will be a waste. Once war starts the Nations will need this oil for the Military.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:33 | 2042835 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

The many are the producers of the wealth which the many have a right to enjoy. Selfishness (also known as the desire that oneself and one's family doesn't starve to death and maybe gets ahead someday) is the motivation for production. The slothful and indolent inhabit government and use their power to obtain the wealth of the productive many. Government employs fear of impending death or catastrophe as a backup for its monopoly of force which it uses to extract payment.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 06:23 | 2043049 philipat
philipat's picture

 

@Lord of the Wankers

I I heard that his brother was Levi Strauss, who became part of the American dream? I can't vouch for the reliability of the source for that.

1. Don't shout (Caps). It's rude.

2. Fuck off, no sorry that should be go forth and Wank elsewhere will you.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 01:06 | 2043450 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Wank Lord;

Who exactly are you speaking of, "Stupid Animals?"

I recall a post where you framed U.S. debt on the lazy baby boomer's. Not to put word's in your mouth but something along those thought's where your intent if I recall correctly. Do you just hate all human's or is there a certain brand or color you are flying?

 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 03:11 | 2043650 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Do you often talk to Robots?

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 08:39 | 2043837 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Lord Winkie does not reply and cares not what others say or write or think. It is the widdo winkus amunkus.

oh hell you are right, WL IS probably just artificial stupidity. I wonder how and why he wound up here though.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:39 | 2042677 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i'm off on bike4errands+fun

it lQQked like the junkster started w/ Y/C, below, but it is the weekend, so they may be swarming  

i bought literally a tiny bit of silver a coupla weeks ago;  but, everything's paid!

l8r!

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:26 | 2042999 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 As Fletch said.  " It's all ball bearings these days"!   I junk no one. 

 

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hm30l8sqlQw

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:55 | 2042791 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

This is slander most foul.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:02 | 2042796 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Roll one for me, Hoss

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:30 | 2043008 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

$5 Bernanke Bucks on 4-4...

Wait... Who has the pool???

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:10 | 2042618 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

If anyone has been watching the Shape Of Things To Come Reports by Clif and an affiliated site, that March 4 date is awfully close to March 9.

http://halfpasthuman.com/discontinuity.html

http://halfpasthuman.com/destiny.html

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

 

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:30 | 2042757 xela2200
xela2200's picture

And 12/12/12 also looks odd. Possibly the end of the world as we know it. At least that is what my over sized and pattern seeking monkey brain of mine is telling me. /sarc

Time for feces flinging.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:32 | 2043012 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Damn...

I should have taken 9-11-12...

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:18 | 2042901 Doña K
Doña K's picture

I don't know why anyone bothers with Iran. Oil will be depleted soon and they will be left with sand and worthless dollars. Guaranteed to become extinct. Best thing for Iran is to start loading up on goats and tents.

All kidding asside, the Iranian people deserve better but they have been hijacked by the extremists using religion as the weapon of intimiditation and submission.

Religions and insurance companies, capitalize on human fear. I am not sure if anyone said this before, but I am saying it now.

The US is intimidating Americans using fear of the "boogie man" terrorism and the like. You got to have enemies real or perceived to sell guns, ammo, war and maintain profits for the military industrial complex.

How do you fight that? Sorry I have no answer. But history tells us that when people have lost their wealth, their dignity and when taxes and fees exceed 50% there is always a revolution.

You are almost there. The real unemploynment rate is 20%+, wifes and daughters are being fondled and photographed at the airports, the elderly are now considered a drag in the government expeditures, your wealth is being diluted by trillions of dollars digitally created and your supreme leader is talking about hope which is a fools opium. 

Act accordingly

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:14 | 2042626 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I have 1 may!

And i put in the pool:
1 nobel peace price
A gallon of oil that's worths 500$
And the liberty bell (i'll tell you where to pick it up, so bring a truck)

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:15 | 2042628 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

nothing like war to prop up "patriotism" and support for current leadership....just in time for elections.

remember Bush's popularity and 911?

 

Obama wants Iran to attack first to get an excuse to spend tax dollars in another massive war. Unlike Iraq (France's oil bitch and Russia's colony), Iran is seen as the last colony by USSR and China so expect really heavy tolls....including nuke threats.

 

This time they have global media (RT, PressTV, CCTV), manufacturing capacity, resource rich African and middle eastern countries tired of US dollar colonialism ready to switch sides, heavy debt of allied powers, unemployment, etc. Not a good time to go to war for America IMO. Even "cutting edge" US drone was hacked by chinese STEM grad.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:19 | 2042743 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Wanted to point out that the drone did not have cutting edge tech on the communications as a matter of fact and that is why it was likely hacked. Nuke threats don't mean shit btw. I'd be more afraid if the Chinese stopped buying treasuries. Oh wait they are doing that.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:03 | 2042798 fnord88
fnord88's picture

From what I have read it didn't even need to be hacked. Apparently if it loses communications it is programmed to find a safe place to land, so all you really need to do is Jam it.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:40 | 2042840 duo
duo's picture

"Remember the Maine"

"Remember Pearl Harbor"

"Remember the Gulf of Tonkin"

"Remember 9/11"

"Remember ????????"

Whatever ???????????? is, it's gonna be bad.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:09 | 2042881 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

And especially remember the jewish attack on the USS Liberty!!!

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:28 | 2042912 CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

Dude, you forgot "Remember the Alamo".

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 00:11 | 2043296 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Aw, now you done it ... I gonna' have to post some Alamo history put to music for those in ZH inclined to appreciate such things ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HaUQhzqwJs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch5uO0bemnk

Those two tracks are off the album, The Eagle and the Snake. If you like your guitar/music blended with history, you might see some other work by the musician (Brian Burns).

For all you ZHers spoiling for a fight, I suggest ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2u3SsQXhmho

... and for you military types ... remember the cavalry?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pgEN4k1wvs

... and for those who served ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ftWerL1Wcs

... thank you ... and welcome home.

Regards,

Cooter

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 00:35 | 2043365 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

He also forgot "remember the 300"

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:57 | 2042948 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

strange way to start one: cut the Marine Corps in half? just a thought of course...

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 00:45 | 2043399 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

There is never a perfect time to go to war.  As for debt, remember that the NAZIs in 1939 were in debt up to their eyeballs and had little choice but to go to war.  Sound familiar?

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 06:32 | 2043772 philipat
philipat's picture

@AH

 

The only problem with this grand scheme, with which I agree, is the price of gas and it's impact on the economy ahead of and on the election. Expect lots of "Surprise" increases in oil inventory over the next few months and PD's assisting to push the increase in oil prices back down until the war starts. Then it no longer matters because we can all get wrapped up in the flag and support our brave boys overseas.

Pathetic.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 01:23 | 2043482 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

OK LH, I've got June 18th - takes time to get all the pieces in place...

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 02:07 | 2043580 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

April 16th-Boston marathon day.....

Iran...

get it ?

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:04 | 2042608 sushi
sushi's picture

The posturing is getting absurd but all of these fools have fingers on triggers.

As for coverage ZH is the only source (apart from Asia Times) providing decent coverage.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:58 | 2042951 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

yep. and we like sushi here too.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:22 | 2042820 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

I'm waiting for the false flag terrorist attack on American soil that will be blamed on Iran. This will accomplish two objectives for the evil bastards in power:

1. excuse to start a war with Iran

2. further the police state with more fascist checkpoints

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:15 | 2042894 non_anon
non_anon's picture

waiting for the crescendo from the fat bitch in this comic opera

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 23:07 | 2043155 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Him or Her?

 

Undergoing a stress test at the moment dont you know?

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 16:47 | 2042573 rajat_bhatia
rajat_bhatia's picture

As usual they ignore the Black Swan event of Aliens attacking Iran. If they can bailout the ECB, they can do anything.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:07 | 2042718 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

My name is Beldar.....I am from France.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:34 | 2042763 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

...'must consume mass quantities of food!"

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 16:51 | 2042574 macholatte
macholatte's picture

I heard that Soros just bought Barry another Peace Prize. Now that's planning ahead.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9V7zbWNznbs

 

 

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:08 | 2042616 uno
uno's picture

O the neocon

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:21 | 2042642 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

doesn't Alfred Nobel the "inventor of dynamite" giving out "peace" prize a little ironic?

 

obituary states "Dr. Alfred Nobel, who became rich by finding ways to kill more people faster than ever before, died yesterday"

 

Also, why would be soros' motivation to buy the peace prize? It would be Iran buying it so they don't get attacked.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:36 | 2042766 macholatte
macholatte's picture

You gotta catch up, Aldous. You're doing Ok but you're taking this way too literally. There is no logic in a situation where you don't have all the facts. Barry gets a Peace Prize for ego and MSM bullshit propaganda to feed the sheeple and a million space bucks which gets recycled into a charity that buys his books and pretty cloths for his nouveau riche wife so he gets a big payoff for being the Soros stooge he is. Just watch the video. It will help you gain clarity.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:45 | 2042778 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Kissinger got one for bombing Cambodia...

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:13 | 2042975 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Kissinger Peace prize to be awarded to Obama after achieving peace.

 

By peace Kissinger means like peace with native Americans. Obliterate the populace through war and take complete control of valuable assets. No more war with native Americans now. Peace.

 

World peace = one world government with no challengers

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 23:22 | 2043185 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Agreed... Kissenger did a number on Chile.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 00:29 | 2043345 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Yeah, Chile would have been so much better of with Allende's policies, nationalized everything, than what they've gotten, wealth and freedom and all that.

Mon, 02/06/2012 - 05:57 | 2130011 Acet
Acet's picture

The peace of the grave. There's no Peace more peacefull than that!

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:07 | 2042804 fnord88
fnord88's picture

""The mescalin taker sees no reason for doing anything in particular and finds most of the causes for which, at ordinary times, he was prepared to act and suffer, profoundly uninteresting. He can't be bothered with them, for the good reason that he has better things to think about." Aldous Huxley

Just wanted to say I love your work  :)

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:10 | 2042809 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Peaceful people are easier to blow up. They aren't zig zagging and running and stuff.

He should give some to afghanistan as they have c4-d the crap out of about a million rocks there.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 03:17 | 2043656 navy62802
navy62802's picture

doesn't Alfred Nobel the "inventor of dynamite" giving out "peace" prize a little ironic?

--

Almost as ironic as Obama winning said "peace" prize roughly a century later ...

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 16:49 | 2042576 sheeple2012
sheeple2012's picture

the "fallout" from an Israeli attack will be fallout over tel aviv courtesy of russia

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:02 | 2042604 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Indeed, Russia is hell bent on starting WW III over a loser islamotard regime that actually competes with Russia in its primary business, exporting hydrocarbons. Those irrational chess-hating non-calculating simpleminded Russians.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:30 | 2042660 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

chess grandmasters have been outsourced to IBM Big Blue super computers.

 

Russia doesn't want to attack Iran, but to control it. more of a hostile takeover than competition elimination.

 

 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 00:31 | 2043354 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

They'd better get themselves a Navy. Oh, and a population. Russia's russian population has been operating in demographic powerdive mode for decades, and pretty much cannot recover.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 17:28 | 2044944 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

Russia's russian population is being dispersed, globally, including here in the Homeland.

global.  it's the new "nationstate" doncha know.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 00:48 | 2043405 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

Remember, the Russians still want their warm-water port...the one they've been trying to get for about 200 years.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:04 | 2042609 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

How do you know that?  You might be correct but I haven't seen evidence.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:33 | 2042834 Ragnar24
Ragnar24's picture

Read history of iran just before and after WWII... Russia, UK, and US all jockeyed for control... and have been ever since. Read Mackinder. Read Engdahl.

Eurasia is THE prize.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:45 | 2042847 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

The Great Game or Tournament of Shadows (Russian: ??????? ?????, Turniry Teney) in Russia, were terms for the strategic rivalry and conflict between the British Empire and the Russian Empire for supremacy in Central Asia. The classic Great Game period is generally regarded as running approximately from the Russo-Persian Treaty of 1813 to the Anglo-Russian Convention of 1907. A second, less intensive phase followed the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917. The Great Game dwindled after the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union became Allies during World War II.

The term "The Great Game" is usually attributed to Arthur Conolly (1807–1842), an intelligence officer of the British East India Company's Sixth Bengal Light Cavalry.[1] It was introduced into mainstream consciousness by British novelist Rudyard Kipling in his novel Kim (1901).

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Game

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:45 | 2042933 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

They've got nukes and this ain't no game.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 16:49 | 2042578 CalibratedConfidence
CalibratedConfidence's picture

thank you

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 16:52 | 2042586 El Gordo
El Gordo's picture

You know, we could always just drill for our energy resources.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 16:56 | 2042591 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Intercourse is great!

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 16:57 | 2042595 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Iran better watch out, they are about to get their face stomped in.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:03 | 2042606 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

There is a run on their currencie already and that is about as bad as it gets because the US/Israel didn't have to spend any money to do it.  In fact, it is making the US money as the dollar apreciates relentlessly.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:12 | 2042621 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

You're way too trusting of that information. Maybe this announcement will broaden your perspective:

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9007275648

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:16 | 2042632 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I'll be the first one to tell you there will be a run on the dollar at the end of the day.  Thanks for posting that article.  FX is going to be a helluva ride this year.  Saddle up!

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:13 | 2042891 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Nice move Iran. Check.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:35 | 2043017 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 GeneMarchbanks, I'm not one to take sides.  I pay attention to your intuitive posts.  I like a person of " rational" perspective!

   Short, sweet and to the point>   Thanks for your Ideas & Intelligence.  AKA - common sense.  You will do well this year.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:07 | 2042613 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

You can't stomp Iran's face without making China lose face. Iran is China's oil bitch and to a pimp, nothing is more humiliating than someone else bitch slapping your whores.

 

 

 

Here are your world pimps:

The UN Security Council with veto power is composed of five permanent members — China, France, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States

 

Remember fight over control of persian empire has led to demise of many empires...russia, british empire, ottoman, etc.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:10 | 2042619 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Anyone know how the Russian/China oil pipelines are coming?  They did start trading rubles for yuan for a reason.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:47 | 2042689 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

stage 1 open

stage 2 in 2014

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12103865

 

Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer in 2009.

China surpassed the US as the world's largest consumer of energy last year.

 

globalism and capitalism is going to bring US down to her knees when communist controlling pipelines with state capital buys up all of worlds profitable businesses.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:28 | 2042825 MarketWatchTerrorist
MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

Wrong.  This is all part of the leveling process necessary to bring about one world government.  You don't think the Chinese will join the NWO when the Americans are living in such opulent luxury, do you?  No, globalism is EXACTLY what its name implies - the process of standardizing economies, standards of living, and GOVERNMENTS on a global scale.

 

What part of this don't you people understand?  Do you even speak English?

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:27 | 2043001 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

By you? Or will you stay home and watch it on FOX? Still time to enlist in the Marines, get through boot camp and advanced infantry training and be deployed to a Maine division in time to be first off the chopper and get your boots on the ground for the Iran face stomping.

Just a thought, "fight your own wars".

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 16:59 | 2042598 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 A ( CVN ) spread sheet please?

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:04 | 2042607 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Could I get a job drawing these graphs. This one is shit.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:17 | 2042636 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Grab a crayon.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:04 | 2042610 Woodyg
Woodyg's picture

Considering the iranian 2 munitions plants that went up in smoke in the recent past I'd say an attack has Already Occured.

I think he means all-out overt warfare.

Weapons plants blowing -

Followed by a captured drone

Followed by sanctions

Followed by Iranian War Games in the gulf...

More threats

War games near the afganistan border

Oh fun times ahead..

All we need now is a little false flag incident and there'll be stopping this sucker......

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:24 | 2042650 Sziget
Sziget's picture

the first attack was the stuxnet imho, the captured drone is a ripost so it could be called war, at least cyberwar

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:16 | 2042899 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

The Iranians invented chess, you now.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 23:43 | 2043239 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Indians.

And I don't mean Tonto, kemo sabe.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:06 | 2042611 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 It's getting " UGLY" , in the Gulf.  A Junk for a "update"?  Pissed off marines?  

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:10 | 2042620 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

So... IT'S NOW OR NEVER!!
DEPLOY THE CANON MEAT!!! I mean patriots of course....
DEPLOY THE PATRIOTS!!.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:17 | 2042635 xcehn
xcehn's picture

Sing it, SD.  errr....on second thought, open the window first! 

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:17 | 2042634 MrPoopypants
MrPoopypants's picture

Nonsense.  It's all posturing.  Iran is not going to be attacked for the following reasons:

1. They have the backing of Russia and China.

2. They have Russian-made Sunburn/Moskit surface-to-surface missiles capable of wiping out the US fleet there as well as closing the straight.

3. They already have nuclear weapons, as disclosed by Russian General Baluyevsky at the Bush-Putin Summit of 2002 (source:Stratfor, June 4 2002).

4. TPTB don't want to collapse the economy (yet) by sending crude over $200.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:20 | 2042639 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

All fair points, yet the oilgarchs are not only idiots, but lunatics.  They have collapsed the economy into ruinsand there is no fix, the Fiat Ponzi is crumbling and their dollar hegdimony with it, and Ron Paul is making a surge at the White House.  What would you do if you wanted to keep the illusion of power over the world?

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:39 | 2042675 MrPoopypants
MrPoopypants's picture

Re: economic collapse: the economy's software is getting buggy but it just needs a reboot.  The hardware is working fine.  How can we say the economy has collapsed when we can still go to the grocery store, fill up at under $3/gallon, and buy as many consumer goods as ever?

The end of the dollar - and euro - has been anticipated for years.  The system was designed with just such purpose in mind.  The oligarchs aren't panicking because things are going according to plan.  After collapse we'll get 2.0.

These Iran scares have been going on for years; nothing comes of them.  Every couple years, like clockwork.  Bluster, bluster, back down.  Exeunt Iran from world stage.

And not that there's reason to believe it, but several Iranian expats have told me that the mullahs collaborate with Western intelligence agencies behind the scenes.  Oceania at war with Eurasia - indeed.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:09 | 2042722 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

both Iranian and American elites love the threat of war to keep the populace in line. They both benefit from position of power when they act like they are enemies but really it is the haves vs. have nots.

 

Only way to bring both down is to divide up the power, but when was the last time a country was split the power as they got richer?

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:32 | 2042761 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Your post would be fine if it was Jan 2011, but financials have come under duress once again, even after the trillions of dollars given to them on the backs of the taxpayers.  Will QE X continue to fly?  Will the world accept $299 oil because the ed needed to bail out the banks, again?  Or will those that engineered the crisis decide to pull the Trump card and start a WWIII?  Your guess is as good as mine, but the Fiat Ponzi is on its last legs, and it is only a matter of time before it gets one in the head.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:16 | 2042737 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

So silly, the USA will destroy Iran's air force, navy, power infrastructure, refinery, and most of it's bridges in a matter of days with almost zero casualties on the American side. All this talk of Russia or China stepping in or Iran sinking the American navy is just stupid. Bombs Away!

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:47 | 2042781 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Yeh sweet,
Then the troops move in and get their limbs blown off for the next 10years and Iranian refugees start getting green cards to infest the USA.

Geez, wash,rinse and repeat works well with the epsilons.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:55 | 2042790 akak
akak's picture

Paul Wolfowitz, is that you?

Still stroking your cock to your PNAC dreams of empire, I see.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:40 | 2043019 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 That was a GREAT COMMENT! I'm not taking sides.   That was a KODAK MOMENT!

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:29 | 2042826 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

America can go from 11 carriers to 2 or 3 easily. You can also see a satelite war. I'm sure theres plenty of satelittes that could be retasked to go play bumper car with each other.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:28 | 2042908 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

The USA won't have any carriers within range when they attack. They will first attack anti air missiles and radar with tomahawks and B2's. Then will send in F-22's from Iraq and Afghanistan to take out Iran's air force. U.S. Subs and missiles will take out what is left of their Navy. Then the USA is free to rain hell on all of Iran's infrastructure. With no radar, electricity, fuel and with a disease ridden starving population Iran will beg for mercy just like Japan did in WWII. They will welcome US and Isreal's ground troops.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:42 | 2042928 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Judas H Priest on a Popsicle stick, someone gave you a green.

You must be the MDB of geopolitics.

'they will welcome Israeli and USA ground troops'.... Now I get you... You're being funny. THAT'S FUNNY. Well done.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:43 | 2043023 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 This one is for you BiG Duke!   ENJOY!   Judas Priest " Solar Angels"   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1JWb3OSL4o

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:19 | 2042988 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

No land war in Iran, no way.  It ain't happening.

I doubt the Iranians would welcome our troops.   Or Israel's either.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 01:24 | 2043486 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

The initial phase of the Afghanistan conquest (remember Northern Alliance and the Spec Ops on horseback calling down the thunder?) and the Libya collapse probably be the blue prints to follow.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:20 | 2042989 Ima anal sphincter
Ima anal sphincter's picture

After reading a few of your posts.....I hope your happy ass is placed right up front when the shit hits. There is nothing like some fucking asshole who encourages the death of another human. Are you special???? Fuck off.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:51 | 2043033 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

The man on the street in Iran has been chanting "death to America" for more than 30 years. It's time they pay for that. Iran is going to feel death from America in spades.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 22:32 | 2043087 Ima anal sphincter
Ima anal sphincter's picture

Sticks and stones......

 

"Death to People who Fart" Kill them all. They offend me. I'm "hurt" from it. Kill them all.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 01:04 | 2043445 akak
akak's picture

Death to Fightthepower!

 

(Clearly, you are doing precisely the opposite of what your name suggests.)

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 23:17 | 2043171 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

F22's have been stood down on the ground for about 4 months due to a Oxygen problem. As far as I know they have not yet been used in Iraq or Afghanistan.

B2' have finished a Hot Pad exercise once or twice already. All week 24/7 They will be money well spent. Should they survive.

The USAF has a specific Matrix as going to War. They will generate whatever that needs to be generated very quickly and it will roll into a Tusnami.

Half of Irans airforce is rusted on the ground, the other half is what Iran is able to build or buy for herself.

 

US Subs are far too precious to waste on a dirt scum bath Navy. However they may prove useful as they have in the past.

 

The Iranian people will be spared as much as possible, it is the Military and Government that will find itself crippled.

US and Israel Ground troops will not happen. Look at the Geologic Map of Iran by State. Israel will be fighting for life against Egypt, Syria and Lebanon/Gaza.

The Iranian People can make do for alot less than our fat obese whiney Ipad consuming Population.

 

And above all, we must understand and accept the fact that US Troops, Israeli and US Citizens may very well be hit very hard here at home or wherever they are.

 

Are you ready?

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 00:43 | 2043390 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

In any case the US military have plenty of plans for defanging Iran and then having their way with her. The Air Force =practices= together with the Navy defeating and wiping out iranian air defenses and anti-ship assets, based on continuously updated intel about what they'd face and need to take out.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 05:16 | 2043738 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

No one has any doubt that the usa can wipe the floor with iran ok??

You/we are great at that.

Its who we're doing it for that is the worry.

Think about that.

i got into a little chat with a ZH'er here last week all pumped up and yahooing...

ended up telling me he was an irish jewish guy wanting some payback for his yid ancestors who came to ireland 200 years ago.

Thats not a good enough reason for killing and dying.

Those of us who have killed someone know that. 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 05:24 | 2043742 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Sounds like a iraq will take 3 months and cost 20 billion dollars Bush plan there.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:01 | 2042873 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

3. They already have nuclear weapons, as disclosed by Russian General Baluyevsky at the Bush-Putin Summit of 2002 (source:Stratfor, June 4 2002).

 

Pat Buchanan: Let Congress decide on war with Iran

“The secretary was clear that we have no indication that the Iranians have made a decision to develop a nuclear weapon,” said Pentagon press secretary George Little. “He (Panetta) didn't say that Iran would, in fact, have a nuclear weapon in 2012.”

Little added that U.N. inspectors remain in Iran and have access to its uranium stockpile, and should Iran attempt a “breakout” by diverting low-enriched uranium to a hidden facility to convert it to weapons grade, U.N. inspectors would instantly detect the diversion.

“We would retain sufficient time under any such scenario to take appropriate action,” said Little.

In short, the Pentagon does not believe Iran has made a decision to build atomic weapons, and the department is confident that, should it do so, the United States would have ample warning.

Little's definitive statement, “We have no indication that the Iranians have made a decision to develop a nuclear weapon,” coincides with the consensus of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA and Defense Intelligence Agency, in December 2007.

In that report, the entire U.S. intelligence community stated unanimously, with “high confidence,” that Iran had given up its drive for an atom bomb back in 2003.

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20111227/OPINION02/712279995

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:19 | 2042902 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

I just don't have a lot of confidence that MrPoopypants knows what he is talking about. Or she.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:37 | 2043015 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Though Iran would like Russian backing, the Russians have been piss poor allies of Iran. Russia has gone on caving in to western pressure time and time again. My guess is that Russia's armed forces are in much worse shape than the west is aware of. Otherwise the constant retreats everytime the west pressures them would not be happening on the part of Russia.

Russia had a signed contract to sell S-300 anti aircraft missile system to Iran, then when USA pressured them, Russian backed down and cancelled the sale. If Iran had S-300 mobile missile system along with passive detection systems they would have provided a survivable means to track and destroy a reasonable number of attacking aircraft making a long air campaign a questionable proposition.

If Russia was indeed prepared to draw a line in the sand saying to the USA "no more cost free invasions in our neighborhood", then S-300 sale would have gone through.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 23:19 | 2043180 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

The S300's have undergone several generational upgrades.

The Tors in particular...

 

And the Sunburn if deployed against us, will truly be a bitch. Time is part of war. How much time do you have to draw and engage?

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 14:36 | 2044443 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

They are already in place. Where have you been?

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:20 | 2042638 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

"We know where they [the WMD] are. They're in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat."  Brace for some more Rumsfeldian moments.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:22 | 2042643 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Speaking of, where is that guy?  Oh yeah, on a huge ranch in Montana.  Hmmm....

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:40 | 2042676 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

The chief scam artist was Lou Pai from Enron. 

He was smart enough to know when the gig was up and left in just enough time and he was one of the chief engineers of that scam...later to become the second largest land owner in Colorado. Ya gotta' give it to the guy, he knew when to cash in the chips.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lou_Pai

No one even mentions his name because no one even knows who he is. That's genius, evil genius, but genius none-the-less. 

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:35 | 2042764 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

some details....

 

he wasnt' so smart to sell the stock in time.....his ex-wife forced it when they divorced because of Pai's affair with striper (now his wife)

 

Pai's attorney said "He's the only guy who's ever been lucky to get divorced."

 

 Pai's 2nd break came when he sold that Colorado ranch before real estate collapse back in 2005 for 3 times his investment

 

I think he still owns Culebra Peak. He must know that the mountain has some hidden oil, natural gas, coal underground, or snow range which is a natural water reservoir for Texas and New Mexico ranches and farms. 

 

Reminds me of Startup.com documentary where govworks.com's architect Chieh Chung is pushed out other co-founders for $700,000 as Chieh refuses to leave what was then $50M valuation company, but it turns out company goes bust and only person to make any money was the guy who was forced out...Chieh Chung.

 

yeah...free market capitalism at its best because top 0.1% made it through hard work that benefits society.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:52 | 2042785 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Either the guy is really lucky or he plans ahead. I think the guy just knows his shit and knows the system better than 99% of people. He got out in enough time before the bust, had this break, had that break, had another break which led to another break. He's on easy street just laughing at the whole game probably banging 5 strippers which he was known for doing. 

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:09 | 2042807 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Obviously "he knows his shit", he's Asian!  I know Trav agrees.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 22:14 | 2043058 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Sweet comment. Wish I could come up with something like that, that was pure genius. 

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:59 | 2043041 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

I know Lou Pai.................Knew when to cash in his chips''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''Ken lay died on a mountain top..................................Jeff Skilling is serving 24 years in a Fed. prison......Good ole Lou Pai is enjoying lap dances and sipping Jack Daniels.........My fucking hero....

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:19 | 2042903 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

An underground ranch.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:44 | 2042687 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

centrifuges, BiCheZ!

from satellite photos!

kill!  Kill!  KILL!!!

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:21 | 2042641 gbresnahan
gbresnahan's picture

My bet is on October - Just before the November election..assuming it takes place.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:51 | 2042695 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i'll put you down for $10/halloween

just be yourself; i'll recognize you

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:47 | 2043030 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'll pop my ass on a Jet for that!  Long live Slewie!

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:24 | 2042646 Yen Cross
Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:28 | 2042653 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Key dates :

January 30 : Primary in the Netanyahu party to solidy his power. He will likely clear opposition and then will be free to do anything.

US election on November 6 : October surprise.

``Iran crossing a red line``... Iran is already ready to start enriching at Qom, they are just waiting for the appropriate moment to do so.

Sanctions on Iran could become really an embargo, forcing Iran to start a war. Date unknown. Meeting in Europe about it in late January.

Iranian war games in the gulf in February.

US-Israel wargames in the Gulf and in Israel in probably February.

Parliamentary elections in Iran on March 2.

UAE opening a pipeline bypassing the strait of hormuz in April.

Russian election on March 4.

 

Lots of shit going down. But yeah, February is dangerous from Israel. October is dangerous from the US. Sanctions and sabrerattling starting a war is dangerous in February.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:08 | 2042806 Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

I'll take Valentine's Day. What better time to stage a massacre?

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:21 | 2042905 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

When is Purim this year?

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:43 | 2043024 PhattyBuoy
PhattyBuoy's picture

I'll take Carotid Artery Bypass for 1000 Alex.

"UAE opening a pipeline bypassing the strait of hormuz in April".

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:43 | 2042684 xcehn
xcehn's picture

How much did the Fed have to commit before the EU caved to US pressure to embargo Iranian crude?

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:46 | 2042688 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Not much, Sarkozy folded like a lawn chair.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:51 | 2043032 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Financial transaction tax. Sar(pozy) is a Eurocratic frape without the yoke!

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:57 | 2042705 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

iranian oil>>>who?

exports for 6 months ending june 2011:  Iran-exports

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:00 | 2042713 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Libya is covering ...for now.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:22 | 2042821 MarketWatchTerrorist
MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

World Jewry controls both the American "Federal" Reserve and all of the European Central Banks.  This boycott against Iran is simply a declaration of war by World Jewry against Iran.

 

Your goyim "leaders" are puppets.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:54 | 2042698 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

"Fig 1 shows our expected probability of an attack on Iran,"

Nice graph...where is their methodology?

Sorry, but these are just some well intentioned dart throwing monkeys who are so sure of their assumptions they can make impressive charts out of their assumptions. Pass

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:59 | 2042709 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

had enuf?

FIRE!!!

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:46 | 2042780 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Yes, those charts are mighty impressive. A seven-year-old with a crayon could do better.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!