• Tim Knight from...
    04/28/2016 - 00:27
    I was expecting a few boring candidate statements of the U.S. Senate - AKA the World's Most Exclusive Club - but, boy, was I wrong. Just take a look at some of these gems.
  • Tim Knight from...
    04/28/2016 - 00:27
    I was expecting a few boring candidate statements of the U.S. Senate - AKA the World's Most Exclusive Club - but, boy, was I wrong. Just take a look at some of these gems.

Presenting An Iran Attack Probability Timetable And A Complete Geopolitical Outlook For The Middle East

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The folks at Religare Capital Markets have put together one of the better cheat sheets on a region that most of the big banks largely ignore: the Middle East, where day after day we get new and more troubling headlines of escalation, usually involving Iran and Israel. And since at the end of the day, in a resource-strapped world, the bottom line is always about energy, and oil, what happens in the MENA region is arguably far more important at the end of the day than who prints how much electronic paper/linen. But most important is probably the following analysis charting the probability of an attack of Iran by either Israel or the US. We were quite surprised to find that in Religare's opinion the probability of an Israeli-sourced attack on Iran hits a high of 50% sometime in early February, with the US contributing about 20% with a peak in May and just before the presidential elections. This is how they explain it: "The probability of an attack on Iran is now higher than ever. The only solution to the current crisis, diplomacy, is off the table due to politics and the focus is now shifting to regime change. We see the probability dropping mid-year, although US elections could increase the probability of a US attack significantly (unless Ron Paul steams ahead), as will Iran’s likely decision to move their centrifuges to reinforced facilities in Qom if not handled correctly (likely mid-year). We reiterate our view that the fallout may not be as bad as expected from an Israeli strike, horrendous from a US one." And if they are right, what happens to oil will likely be the biggest catalyst of events in 2012 - a topic PIMCO has already had some extended observations on.

Other big picture geopolitical observations on MENA:

The regional Cold War

 

The deployment of the Peninsula Shield Force to quash the uprising in Bahrain was the first act of a rapidly developing regional Cold War and was the first market of what was to be an increasingly independent and assertive foreign and security policy from the GCC and Iran. We do not see this as an ideological conflict, although old prejudices die hard, but rather a political one between countries that have gone from being heavily indebted to rapid growth in just over a decade and are now looking to project their control in their region. Local populations have also been a significant factor in this and we have seen increased budgets and reinforcement of traditional social contracts to provide the groundwork for foreign policy, as well as a focus on muting any internal security threats. Finally, the fall of OPEC and rise of the GCC as the owners of spare capacity has been an important one for the oil market, the results of which we are likely to see come through later this year when the oil price comes under pressure.

 

Israel’s increasingly fragile military hegemony and new arms race

 

Israel’s position as the regional military hegemon will come under increasing pressure in the coming years as tens of billions of dollars of weapons enter the region to challenge the ascendancy of Iran. Should Iran reach nuclear capability, most GCC states will also build their nuclear arsenals even while pursuing independent foreign policies that actively speak out against actions they disapprove of.

 

Rise of neo-Islamism and adjustment of jihadism

 

The Islamist groups that were demoted to social functions under a number of thee deposed regimes have now come to the fore in democratic elections and the rise of a more pluralistic neo-Islamism once they find their feet could have significant implications globally. Jihadist groups have become increasingly decentralized and used for political ends, with African jihadist groups a particular concern with many regions fertile for recruitment

 

Oil through the roof

 

Nobody really believed that we were approaching the point of maximum oil production in 2008, but they do now. The shifting structure of the oil market and increased interference means that prices are now predicted to be above $110 for the foreseeable future, representing a huge wealth transfer into this region. This is not sustainable, but should last 3-4 years at least.

Full report:

 

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Sat, 01/07/2012 - 16:46 | 2042572 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Coverage of this topic is getting to absurd levels.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 16:53 | 2042585 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

...ready to fight back?...

...Fire! BiCheZ!...

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:01 | 2042602 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Time to make a pool:

I have MARCH 4th

Get it?  March forth.....

The winner gets a bsaket full of worthless fiat, eh?

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:08 | 2042615 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

1, 2, 3, 4,..
3-4!
1-2!

you down 4-$5?   L0L!!!

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:27 | 2042622 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Slewie, I think you need another bong rip

To me junker, it's a joke, ok?  He doesn't need another bong rip, he has had about five this morning....

Anyway, now that the angry poopsicle is putting in a barrel of oil, I think I will have to put in a few silver coins.  Anyone else?

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:46 | 2042667 wanklord
wanklord's picture

Stupid Animals,

As soon as war is on, you will certainly say good-bye to all of your ridiculous investments. In fact, you untalented brutes clearly fit in one of Leo Strauss’ (*) categories of society, The Vulgar Many:

“The Vulgar Many, are lovers of wealth and pleasure. They are selfish, slothful, and indolent. They can be inspired to rise above their brutish existence only by fear of impending death or catastrophe.”

(*) German philosopher, 1899-1973

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:06 | 2042802 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Tell the animals, "Then you die."

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:32 | 2042916 Manthong
Manthong's picture

 

Nlce to know they have us covered..

"Exclusive: West readies oil plan in case of Iran crisis

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/06/us-iea-contingency-idUSTRE8051FV20120106

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 22:56 | 2043131 CPL
CPL's picture

LOL!!  Anycase...did anyone notice if they rebuilt the storage facilites along with the required refineries in NOLA?

 

Neither did I.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 23:58 | 2043267 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

http://www.usak.org.tr/dosyalar/dergi/GDFiXn5khkA6rzYZZJkvIJ4kozf3Is.pdf

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/u-s-checking-possibility-of-pumping-oil-from-northern-iraq-to-haifa-via-jordan-1.98134

The United States has asked Israel to check the possibility of pumping oil from Iraq to the oil refineries in Haifa. The request came in a telegram last week from a senior Pentagon official to a top Foreign Ministry official in Jerusalem.

The Prime Minister's Office, which views the pipeline to Haifa as a "bonus" the U.S. could give to Israel in return for its unequivocal support for the American-led campaign in Iraq, had asked the Americans for the official telegram.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 09:30 | 2043883 Atlas Shrugged
Atlas Shrugged's picture

I find it funny that some BS research agency can assign some arbitary probabilty to some event occuring and expect to be taken seriously. Even funnier are the people that do.

15% chance in June, 5% in August, up to 20% in September, down to 10% in November, and back up to 50% in January.

Are these betting odds? What bollocks!

Then they go on to show how smart they are by forcasting how the attack probability changes throughout 2012.

Who comes up with this shit?

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 17:01 | 2044881 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

who comes up with this shit?

those who see  everything as a spread.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 23:05 | 2043150 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

No that will be a waste. Once war starts the Nations will need this oil for the Military.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:33 | 2042835 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

The many are the producers of the wealth which the many have a right to enjoy. Selfishness (also known as the desire that oneself and one's family doesn't starve to death and maybe gets ahead someday) is the motivation for production. The slothful and indolent inhabit government and use their power to obtain the wealth of the productive many. Government employs fear of impending death or catastrophe as a backup for its monopoly of force which it uses to extract payment.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 06:23 | 2043049 philipat
philipat's picture

 

@Lord of the Wankers

I I heard that his brother was Levi Strauss, who became part of the American dream? I can't vouch for the reliability of the source for that.

1. Don't shout (Caps). It's rude.

2. Fuck off, no sorry that should be go forth and Wank elsewhere will you.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 01:06 | 2043450 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Wank Lord;

Who exactly are you speaking of, "Stupid Animals?"

I recall a post where you framed U.S. debt on the lazy baby boomer's. Not to put word's in your mouth but something along those thought's where your intent if I recall correctly. Do you just hate all human's or is there a certain brand or color you are flying?

 

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 03:11 | 2043650 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Do you often talk to Robots?

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 08:39 | 2043837 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Lord Winkie does not reply and cares not what others say or write or think. It is the widdo winkus amunkus.

oh hell you are right, WL IS probably just artificial stupidity. I wonder how and why he wound up here though.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:39 | 2042677 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i'm off on bike4errands+fun

it lQQked like the junkster started w/ Y/C, below, but it is the weekend, so they may be swarming  

i bought literally a tiny bit of silver a coupla weeks ago;  but, everything's paid!

l8r!

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:26 | 2042999 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 As Fletch said.  " It's all ball bearings these days"!   I junk no one. 

 

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hm30l8sqlQw

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:55 | 2042791 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

This is slander most foul.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:02 | 2042796 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Roll one for me, Hoss

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:30 | 2043008 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

$5 Bernanke Bucks on 4-4...

Wait... Who has the pool???

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:10 | 2042618 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

If anyone has been watching the Shape Of Things To Come Reports by Clif and an affiliated site, that March 4 date is awfully close to March 9.

http://halfpasthuman.com/discontinuity.html

http://halfpasthuman.com/destiny.html

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

 

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:30 | 2042757 xela2200
xela2200's picture

And 12/12/12 also looks odd. Possibly the end of the world as we know it. At least that is what my over sized and pattern seeking monkey brain of mine is telling me. /sarc

Time for feces flinging.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 21:32 | 2043012 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Damn...

I should have taken 9-11-12...

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:18 | 2042901 Doña K
Doña K's picture

I don't know why anyone bothers with Iran. Oil will be depleted soon and they will be left with sand and worthless dollars. Guaranteed to become extinct. Best thing for Iran is to start loading up on goats and tents.

All kidding asside, the Iranian people deserve better but they have been hijacked by the extremists using religion as the weapon of intimiditation and submission.

Religions and insurance companies, capitalize on human fear. I am not sure if anyone said this before, but I am saying it now.

The US is intimidating Americans using fear of the "boogie man" terrorism and the like. You got to have enemies real or perceived to sell guns, ammo, war and maintain profits for the military industrial complex.

How do you fight that? Sorry I have no answer. But history tells us that when people have lost their wealth, their dignity and when taxes and fees exceed 50% there is always a revolution.

You are almost there. The real unemploynment rate is 20%+, wifes and daughters are being fondled and photographed at the airports, the elderly are now considered a drag in the government expeditures, your wealth is being diluted by trillions of dollars digitally created and your supreme leader is talking about hope which is a fools opium. 

Act accordingly

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:14 | 2042626 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I have 1 may!

And i put in the pool:
1 nobel peace price
A gallon of oil that's worths 500$
And the liberty bell (i'll tell you where to pick it up, so bring a truck)

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:15 | 2042628 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

nothing like war to prop up "patriotism" and support for current leadership....just in time for elections.

remember Bush's popularity and 911?

 

Obama wants Iran to attack first to get an excuse to spend tax dollars in another massive war. Unlike Iraq (France's oil bitch and Russia's colony), Iran is seen as the last colony by USSR and China so expect really heavy tolls....including nuke threats.

 

This time they have global media (RT, PressTV, CCTV), manufacturing capacity, resource rich African and middle eastern countries tired of US dollar colonialism ready to switch sides, heavy debt of allied powers, unemployment, etc. Not a good time to go to war for America IMO. Even "cutting edge" US drone was hacked by chinese STEM grad.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:19 | 2042743 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Wanted to point out that the drone did not have cutting edge tech on the communications as a matter of fact and that is why it was likely hacked. Nuke threats don't mean shit btw. I'd be more afraid if the Chinese stopped buying treasuries. Oh wait they are doing that.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:03 | 2042798 fnord88
fnord88's picture

From what I have read it didn't even need to be hacked. Apparently if it loses communications it is programmed to find a safe place to land, so all you really need to do is Jam it.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:40 | 2042840 duo
duo's picture

"Remember the Maine"

"Remember Pearl Harbor"

"Remember the Gulf of Tonkin"

"Remember 9/11"

"Remember ????????"

Whatever ???????????? is, it's gonna be bad.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:09 | 2042881 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

And especially remember the jewish attack on the USS Liberty!!!

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:28 | 2042912 CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

Dude, you forgot "Remember the Alamo".

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 00:11 | 2043296 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Aw, now you done it ... I gonna' have to post some Alamo history put to music for those in ZH inclined to appreciate such things ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HaUQhzqwJs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch5uO0bemnk

Those two tracks are off the album, The Eagle and the Snake. If you like your guitar/music blended with history, you might see some other work by the musician (Brian Burns).

For all you ZHers spoiling for a fight, I suggest ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2u3SsQXhmho

... and for you military types ... remember the cavalry?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pgEN4k1wvs

... and for those who served ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ftWerL1Wcs

... thank you ... and welcome home.

Regards,

Cooter

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 00:35 | 2043365 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

He also forgot "remember the 300"

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:57 | 2042948 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

strange way to start one: cut the Marine Corps in half? just a thought of course...

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 00:45 | 2043399 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

There is never a perfect time to go to war.  As for debt, remember that the NAZIs in 1939 were in debt up to their eyeballs and had little choice but to go to war.  Sound familiar?

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 06:32 | 2043772 philipat
philipat's picture

@AH

 

The only problem with this grand scheme, with which I agree, is the price of gas and it's impact on the economy ahead of and on the election. Expect lots of "Surprise" increases in oil inventory over the next few months and PD's assisting to push the increase in oil prices back down until the war starts. Then it no longer matters because we can all get wrapped up in the flag and support our brave boys overseas.

Pathetic.

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 01:23 | 2043482 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

OK LH, I've got June 18th - takes time to get all the pieces in place...

Sun, 01/08/2012 - 02:07 | 2043580 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

April 16th-Boston marathon day.....

Iran...

get it ?

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 17:04 | 2042608 sushi
sushi's picture

The posturing is getting absurd but all of these fools have fingers on triggers.

As for coverage ZH is the only source (apart from Asia Times) providing decent coverage.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:58 | 2042951 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

yep. and we like sushi here too.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 19:22 | 2042820 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

I'm waiting for the false flag terrorist attack on American soil that will be blamed on Iran. This will accomplish two objectives for the evil bastards in power:

1. excuse to start a war with Iran

2. further the police state with more fascist checkpoints

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 20:15 | 2042894 non_anon
non_anon's picture

waiting for the crescendo from the fat bitch in this comic opera

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 23:07 | 2043155 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Him or Her?

 

Undergoing a stress test at the moment dont you know?

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 16:47 | 2042573 rajat_bhatia
rajat_bhatia's picture

As usual they ignore the Black Swan event of Aliens attacking Iran. If they can bailout the ECB, they can do anything.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:07 | 2042718 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

My name is Beldar.....I am from France.

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 18:34 | 2042763 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

...'must consume mass quantities of food!"

Sat, 01/07/2012 - 16:51 | 2042574 macholatte
macholatte's picture

I heard that Soros just bought Barry another Peace Prize. Now that's planning ahead.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9V7zbWNznbs

 

 

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