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Presenting The "Kyle Bass" Harvard Business School Case Study

Tyler Durden's picture





 

How does one get a Harvard Business School case study made after them? Why by being constantly ahead of the curve, with the right trade, and being mocked by the same "access journalism and excel free" mainstream media which pushed subprime toxic grenades to anyone who listened, only to be proven correct time after time. In other words, by being Kyle Bass: the same Kyle Bass who lost money month after month on his Subprime short (full slide deck here), only to see it all made back, and then  some... quite a bit of some. Because it is not by following the herd that one makes the killer trades: it is by standing against it and by waiting for conventional wisdom (in this case that Japan's debt load is somehow sustainable - it isn't, but the kneejerk response still is one to treat JGB's as a flight to safety - this only works until it no longer does and the same math that had doomed the euro over a decade ago is finally grasped by all). Yes: he has lost 60% on his Japanese short fund since inception: so what? All it takes is one millisecond of Malcom Gladwellian insight and the formerly offerless market goes bidless. And that -60% is transformed to +XXXX.YY. Perhaps once the market takes long, hard look at the underlying reality of what the chart below implies, and that unlike in the US, where two-thirds of all financial liabilities are mopped up by the shadow banking system which provides an unregulated inflation buffer (there is a reason why the European bank system is 3x bigger than the US - the balance is made up of the 100% unregulated shadow banking liabilities most of which are held off the books!), Japan just does not have one.

(As a total tangent, we are always fascinated when "pundits" come up with "economic" theories explaining what they have absolutely no understanding of: namely the subversive role of shadow banking with its $20 trillion in assets which allows infinite asset rehypothecation, which more than any other three letter economic theory that has no bearing in practical reality, is the sole reason why Treasurys are a Giffen good... for now.)

Either way, below is the complete Harvard Business School presentation on Kyle Bass, on Heyman Capital and on the Japan Short ber, which we hope will put to rest some of the prevalent disinformation floating around.

 

 


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Sun, 05/20/2012 - 09:55 | Link to Comment Alexandros
Alexandros's picture

.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment e2thex
e2thex's picture

How is this going to impact bass fishing?

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:26 | Link to Comment spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

If I had a nickle every time I heard that.....

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:46 | Link to Comment holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Kyle Bass must've heard it alot.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:03 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

 "A nickle ain't worth a dime anymore"

~ Yogi Berra

(Kyle Bass 2012 edit: "It will be soon")

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Let's all hope he can collect on his mega profitable shorts when the economy finally goes tits up.

Me, I'm buying gold, of the hard variety.

I suspect I will collect more in the long run...

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment markmotive
markmotive's picture

Also a worthy read: Dylan Grice Popular Delusions (May 17, 2012):

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2012/05/19/dylan-grice-popular-delusions-f...

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:49 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Kyle Bass is a consummate insider. His Father was loaded and connected. 

This is not some genius who made a great bet. 

For crying out loud, even Bill Gates has a "story" or how about Steve Job's "Legends".

This probably personally nice guy comes from a Serious Bass Line. ;-)

He got richer because he was rich to begin with. HE "saved" 33 million dollars to start Hyman Capital. At what age?

I smell a Hilary Clintonesque Cattle Futures Super Genius Fortune in Mr. Bass's pre-science. 

Plus, the man Shoots beavers, finds them a menace. Shows you how much he understands "Flows" and "Banks" of the most important sort. 

There are Harvard Case Studies on Jack Squelch, Michael Milk'em and Chainsaw Al too. 

It's time to think for ourselves.

ori

Reach for your Own Core

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You are correct.

A TON of these "self made millionaires" were staked their startup.  Or they had a trust fund that was funding life and their "bold risks" were no risk at all.  

It's like the romantic story of hocking a calculator and a VW van to start a company . . . then you find out they started it in the parents' garage, they were 21 and how big a risk is a calculator and van.  That's a risk that can be recouped after a year on a regular job.

These guys with their 30 million dollar cap man firms who "hit it big" started in the early 90s when anything they bought went up.  Let's also keep in mind they parked that 30 million in Treasuries and went out to solicit money, did their 2/20 thing and when it tripled in the 90s, they kept 20% of it.

And let's also remember one more critical thing.  No one ever writes articles about the guy who lost 5 million and went back to work as an insurance adjuster.  Think they don't exist?  They do, at a 1000:1 ratio to the success stories (largely because their parents didn't stake them 30 million).

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 12:50 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

CrashISO, I was in the Silly Con Valley in it's boom wheeling and dealing with the best and brightest.

It was one big circle-jerking, double-booking, mutually benefitting rip-off.

Company I was at was a near $ 4 Billion dollar stock-swap on March 10th 2000. One loser was forced to marry a really well run company.

Soon, they were both dust, but a few legends had been created, Hummers had been bought, breathless TV coverage was had.

And I heard and saw legends being made. Around paper tigers and what I now know to be coke snorting, wife prostituting masons. And like anywhere else in the US, it helped to have a jewish board-member. Immensly helpful.

So yeah, I can see some Kyle worshippers got their panties in a twist. Get over it guys. 

Think for your-self. All these tigers and creations for your distraction.

ori

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:05 | Link to Comment thorgodofthunder
thorgodofthunder's picture

And I heard and saw legends being made. Around paper tigers and what I now know to be coke snorting, wife prostituting masons. And like anywhere else in the US, it helped to have a jewish board-member. Immensly helpful.

Mods, why is this ignorance and hatred permitted on your site? Don't you grasp the fatal damage it causes to your credibility.

To the racist poster- my dad was in the Holocaust. He barely survived but lived to tell the stories and teach the lessons of such moral depravity. Perhaps you should watch some historical footage of this atrocity to properly understand the danger of your attitude.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:33 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Chill dude, this is not Germany. It's okay to say Jew. Just like it's okay to say Hindu or Christian.

If statement of a fact that Silicon Valley is loaded up to the gills in the Vulture Capital sector with people of Jewish origin is...HATEFUL, RACIST...whatever...

I can see footage of many things that never happened the way they were purported to have happened. Like the Appolo Moon LAndings. Next you'll say they really happened too, right? 

Meanwhile Eli Weisenthal has been proven to be a lying schmuck, not quite a mensch it seems and Anne Frank's Diary has been proven fake too.

And there is a number that keeps dropping, and dropping and dropping. And no mass graves have been found, only meticulous IBM kept recoreds of deaths, births, cause and effects...

By the way, the British starved, raped, shot, ppisoned or otherwise killed probably a 100 million Indians over 300 years, and in their leaving, promulgated a split that caused another 5 million die at the borders of India and Pakistan.

Yet, we are allowed to talk about it all. All of it. Cause, effects, people, circumstances, all of it. Open debate. 

It's not verbotten to mention the Genocidal Raj, or the instigated partition or the sowed communal dis-harmony.

Thin skinned twit calls himself thor the god of thunder.

...

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 20:28 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Yet you made it.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 12:56 | Link to Comment Sun Tsu
Sun Tsu's picture

Kyle Bass is no relations to Perry R. Bass.

Change your moniker to SOPRANO...

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:12 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

I wasn't commenting particularly on him.  Know nothing of him and care nothing about him.

The points were general, and accurate in reply to a poster.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:58 | Link to Comment FutureShock
FutureShock's picture

Screw you guys, Bass is the smartest guy in the room. I don't care what kind of advantage anyone gets, rich or not, he knows his shit. He also went to those guys to see how they were figuring thier CDO models and told them they were wrong or stupid to have an unsustatainable growth model. He did not hope no one figured out what was happening so he could profit. Seems like an ethical guys in a far from ethical business. Some one needs to get him to run the Fed or treasury.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

Bass put $5 million of his own cash and clients put in $28 million for the $33 million start-up.  Since Bass had been a Snr MD at Bear, having saved $5 million is pretty average.  Bass is not from the Perry/Sid Bass et al family.

As for Jobs and Wozniak, anybody else here on Zerohedge start an Apple?  What's stopping you?

 

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:24 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

No shit dude. Jobs and Woz in a leedle garage...

That was the movie. Kay?

ori

 

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 20:21 | Link to Comment RobertMugabe
RobertMugabe's picture

ORI proving once again to be one of the more useless contributers in the ZH comment section..

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

shoots beavers????

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 12:59 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

Unfortunately Kyle Bass knows nothing about the psychology and behavior of Japanese people.  Therefore he will never understand why he is completely wrong.  Japanese people culturally and occupationally can endure great burdens, as we see from their recovery after being bombed into oblivion by US tactical and nuclear bombs.  Still, you never even hear the Japanese complain about this (unlike the incessant chatter from the victims of the European holocaust (even though I would say the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki is much more of a real holocaust).  Japanese don't complain because Japanese people hate excuses and they hate people who complain.  If there is a problem in Japan, people simply do their best to over come the problem.  Since Japan is one of the most educated populations in the world, they can accomplish a lot if desired.  In addition, there is not the youth-worshiping in Japan that goes on in the west.  Therefore, old people in Japan still provide a lot of value to society.  Many work into their nineties, some even more.  Unlike the USA, old people in Japan are considered important and useful, not burdens.  So, in short, Japan still has, and will continue to have, a reserve of resources available.  The Japanese, in a country with little energy resources, limited fertile land, still has the third biggest GNP in the world. A country the size of California, and it has the 3rd biggest economy.  Okay.  Explain that.  Explain why similar geographical nations (like Britain, Indonesia) don't even come close to Japan's productivity.  There is one reason.  Japanese culture.  Japanese don't make excuses.  So, go ahead and short Japan, Kyle.  They will gladly hand you your ass on a platter.  You're welcome for the free lesson.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:03 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Wow, pump Japan much?

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

Uhh.  Show me where I'm wrong.  Also, if anything, this is an understatement.  I could have gone on much longer, but there is no reason to pile it on.  The point is sufficiently made here.  I have another dozen reasons why Kyle Bass is wrong.  They just are not necessary to add.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:27 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Being "highly educated" doesn't imply that their population as a whole understands MMT, central banking, history of fiat currencies, fall of empire, etc. Is Japan's population 100% privately educated, or did they get goobermint approved educations?  I REST MY CASE.

I personally like personal gold ownership as a metric for how "educated" a population is.  Hint:  Japan SUCKS DEAD DOG BALLS using that metric.

And culturally?  They are one of the most isolationist and racist populations on the planet.  And let's not forget the numerous pop culture gems they have given us, e.g. Tubgirl and tentacle porn.

There is much to like about Japan, but those positive qualities aren't going to get them out of this jam without a lot of pain.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:48 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

You spend far to much time playing video games, reading glossy magazines in airports and singing karaoke in Roppongi.  Why don't you get out once in a while and see the other 99% of Japan that isn't infected with western cultural viruses and other depraved western lessons.

Regarding gold, I suppose you have your personal assaying kit ready when the crisis hits, so you can sell all your gold to pay for your dinner at Pizza Hut.  Or maybe you are a gold bear.  It's impossible to know from your infantile prattle.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Wow, ad hominem much?  Assume much?  Straw man much?

And for someone who uses "Precious" as a handle, your pejoratives surrounding gold are jarringly out of character.  Methinks I smell a troooooollolo...

 

You might want to visit this portion of the thread http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-kyle-bass-harvard-business-scho... and rethink your thesis.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:14 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

Have you seen Lord of the Rings?  Do you know what it's about?  Do you think it's a story about a metal called Gold?

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:49 | Link to Comment markmotive
markmotive's picture

Precious - fair points on Japan. But I don't think the Japan bears would dispute this. If the Japan bear case is accurate, it's because Japan has painted itself into a fiscal corner.

I guess what the Japan bears argue is that Japan won't go bust because of a lack of ingenuity and drive, it will fail because of a lack of options.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:51 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

Japan deserves an extensive amount of criticism.  There are many problems and challenges.  Some are unique.  Some are the same as other places.

In the first place, however, the Japanese are extremely poor at communicating outside Japan.  However, that doesn't mean we should misinterpret what's actually happening or follow the wrong signals.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 16:04 | Link to Comment k. pablo
k. pablo's picture

Their dwindling birth rate will trash many of their cultural advantages.  No tax base = no way to sustain social spending = worsening sovereign debt picture.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:10 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

you are probably right about the Japanese culture however their "leadership" is doing everything it can to cover up Fukushima and is complicit in its very own nuclear holocaust (albeit slowly) of their own people.  Their very own people, think about this: it doesn't matter how much they don't complain if they're being slowly poisoned to death and illness does it?

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:19 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

If you notice, I didn't say anything about the leaders of Japan.  The leaders of Japan are tools of the USA.  I entirely spoke about the "people" of Japan.  That has nothing to do with their puppet leaders, who are basically just lackeys for the DC establishment. By the way, do you know who sold Japan the nuclear reactor shit?  GE.  Do you know why? Because the US Goverment told the Japanese politicians to make sure and buy that nuclear reactor shit from GE.  The US Government is the source, the impetus, and the strategist, of Japan's misguided foray into nuclear power.  Tell me what this has to do with Japanese people?

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:20 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

OK lets forget about "leadership" and focus on the Japanese people...your words "So, in short, Japan still has, and will continue to have, a reserve of resources available."

Ummm not if they're all being slowly poisoned to death is the point I'm trying to make, I don't care how polite they are, how hard they work or how little they complain.  

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:25 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

Have you ever even been to Japan?  Did you ever work in Japan?  Do you know any Japanese people?  Can you speak Japanese?  Do know anyone in the health care industry in Japan?  Were you in Japan during the big earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown?  Have you walked around Japan with a geiger counter? Do you know even one person who runs a business in Japan?  Do you know even one Japanese farmer?  Actually, do you even know one native Japanese person?

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:32 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

No, no, yes, some, no, no, no (seen lots of scary videos though), no, no, several.

You're missing the point.  The Yen is heading for a crisis.  Your Nipponfilia is blinding you.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:33 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

Fine.  You can place your bet.  By the way, India and Japan need to be best friends forever.  It's a good match.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

You might want to visit this portion of the comments http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-kyle-bass-harvard-business-scho... and rethink your thesis.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:48 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

That's what you would call "circular reasoning."

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:36 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Lookit here mate, the Japanese culture has A LOT of positive qualities, however they've been on a path to slow self destruction since the false flag attack on a Chinese railway line and subsequent rape of Nanking.  Sorry no I have not walked around Japan and do not speak Japanese if that is a prerequisite for having an informed opinion I suppose I can't say the Holomodor was an unjust tragedy because I don't speak fucking Ukrainian either.  

Take your blinders off they are in a demographic death spiral and are being poisoned to death because their people were sold out to foreign capitalists.

edit: I don't speak fucking Cambodian either so I suppose I can't say whether Pol Pot was being reasonable or not when he killed a million of his countrymen either.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:38 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

It doesn't take much a thinking mind to figure out Pol Pot was a murderous despot.  Whether to short Japan and why, is a wholly different intellectual exercise.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:45 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:00 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

Aha.  A technical chartist.  All clear now.  The straightest line between two points.  IT'S SCIENCE !  Yipee.

 

By the way, I'm getting all kinds of texts and emails from Chinese in there Mercedes, thanking you for your concern about Nanking and so on.  They really appreciate it and they hope you find a job soon.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:00 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Precious, I can answer yes to 99% of your burst of questions.

Considered it my other home. Then, after 6 years of doing business with them, at the highest levels, and multiple trips to Japan, I have to agree it's done for. Japan is culturally, morally and demographically destroyed, all parts of it.

Even my most refined and educated and old family and connected friends are all blind to Fukushima and the other 50 reactors that are all on Seismic zones with no way, no path, no viable method even, to clear all the spent fuel.

Just follow Reactor 4 for now. 

Old Japan and old Japanese values will not work in this evolving paradigm. Even in the deepest parts of Japan you find perfect roads and humongous factory complexes supporting so called "rural" Japans old world charm. 

They will need to die to rise again. Like all of us.

ori

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

Culturally: Please elaborate - objectively if possible.

Morally: Please elaborate - again objectively if possible.

Demographically: The world is no longer driven economically by manual labor.  Japan has acquired intensive scientific skills needed to compete in the present century.  Please refute this.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:23 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

"the world is no longer driven economically by manual labour.  Jonestown has acquired intensive scientific skills needed to compete in the present century".  Shit man brainwashed much?  I hope for your sake you're still young.

You have it all backwards, if they turn their backs on the western model and influence and work using their hands rather than their heads, yes they have a chance.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:41 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

I really hope you didn't mean "Jonestown".  That would be a whole different discussion thread.  Please say it was just a freudian slip.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:29 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Precious, One simple realization opened my eyes to Japan's great lie.

A quote:

Japan…. living a Perpetual Nuclear Sunrise in the aftermath of WWII. Supplied on the cheap by it’s master, nuclear energy meant the lights could stay on 24/7. The factories could produce 24/7. You could build bridges to nowhere for decades, 24/7.  You could party 24/7.

Machines, even giant, electricity sucking robots on giant assembly lines, could run 24/7. Driving it to it’s current export behemoth position.

Power 24/7 ruined Japan. It became a mechanized and mechanistic nation. They exist like automatons. Hive-mind at it’s zenith. Always living in 50/60 Hz. 24/7.

Japan could choose to be in-efficient (on the big picture) and still out-sell their competition on price. Their power was virtually free. Cost is a monetary expression of embedded energy. Viola!

But Japanese people are like Machines. Except for carefully crafted social etiquette, they have no concept of spontaneous combustion. They live in their free-energy produced gadgetry and other consumer oriented wizardry, purposeless. It’s a really sad sight, especially for someone like me, who has studied and learned much from Old Japan (Zen and Budo especially). It’s gone except in an over maintained facade… Just like Japan.

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/09/03/the-curse-of-free-energy/

ori

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:35 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

Of course you realize there is presently not one (or maybe just one recently) nuclear power plant running in Japan.  Are all those robots, factories, workstations, supercomputers, chip fabs, bioreactors, trains, subways, and appliances now turned off?  I left out one question.  Have you ever even been to a Japanese factory?  Please.  Try to add some credibility.  If what you say is true, how could Japan have continued economic output for the last year, while nearly all nuclear power plants have been simultaneously shut down.  The facts just don't support your argument.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

I have seen Kyoto inside and out, places where even most Japanese do not get to go. I know Japan.

And think, a nation destroyed by a war had the money to pay for 55 Nuclear reactors.....leading, bleeding, heck...radiating edge technology in the 50's and 60's.

And then the curse of Mr. Deming, taking non-linear Japan and putting them on an assembly line. Changed Japanese character into linear, trend following robots. Anywhere you go. The trend is always clear in Japan. And Japanese TV? Always lowest common denominator focussed. 

Nuclear was approximately 30-35% of Japanese power. Now, common people are being blacked out and power-cut, to keep those factories rolling. A dear friend is making an absolute killing selling cheap Korean Gensets (under 2 KW), gas fired, kerosene powered, multi-fuel.... and he cannot sell them fast enough. 

See? It's the same shit here in india (as in it's always been like this here)... companies pay bribes to keep the power on, common folk see 4-6 hour daily power cuts.

Again, it is a looming crisis, because Oil is ultimately headed up, unless a war intervenes and send us into a deflationary death spiral first. Regardless, Japan is on thin ice. It needs to do somethign radical, not bow and fume.

Currently, I can best describe Japan as Bow and Fume.

Fuming....

ori

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 23:38 | Link to Comment WallowaMountainMan
WallowaMountainMan's picture

"Just follow Reactor 4 for now"

 

http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:15 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Maybe you can put my C.V. into your employer on my behalf I'd love to teach English in Japan for a few years and wander around in a drooling daze talking about how awesome Japan is.  You remind me of a lot of college educated 20 somethings who visit a far away land for an extended period of time and won't shut up about how awesome it is.  I'm a bit of a Mexico-phile myself however I am not under the illusion that Mexico equates to Zion.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:30 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

If I was Donald Trump and you were on the Apprentice, you would now be FIRED !

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:35 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

I can play the bass and drums but I sing out of tune, so I guess I'd be thrown off American Idol too.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:57 | Link to Comment Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

How long can Japan continue to print, when the country is soon to be exterminated?

http://enenews.com/radioactive-steam-coming-fukushima-reactors-order-tri...

Trillions of becquerels per day. Forever, or at least another 10 years before every living thing on that island is dead. And us soon after that.

Very soon the yen won't be worth a grain of plutonium. Then the US West Coast, and all the farmland that's radioactive. Forget shorting the yen, how about shorting the US? Blythe is buying up the world's food supply for JPMorgan with all our tax dollars, but the food is contaminated.

Oh, that explains the increase in military spending. Eat your rad food or die, but don't complain!

 

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

If you just want to say the sky is falling, then none of us have any reason to do anything but live for the present.  Is that your strategy?

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment FutureShock
FutureShock's picture

Wrong, Bass actually points out that the only solution is for them to allow immigrants to change the age of the population to increase revenue BUT that is is a huge culture issue that they would never got. You missed that lesson.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:20 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

Please explain to me how the age of a nation's population matters one bit a current world where the vast majority of profit margins are attributable to high technology content products.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 00:35 | Link to Comment o2sd
o2sd's picture

Old people cost more to keep alive.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:18 | Link to Comment Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

So that bell ringing they do every year on August 6th is just a coincidence, and not like what the Jewish people do to remember the Holocaust?  By the way, did Jews in 20th Century Europe invade someone so that their "lesser" suffering was somewhat justified?  No doubt many ZHers think so, but I can't seem to find this invasion in the history books, kind of like trying to find Nanjing in a Japanese school textbook.  How regrettable.

Japan certainly is productive, though, I'll grant you that.  And respectful of elders to a fault.  Why, now old people can even rent fake families to come visit and pretend they are the actual children who don't have the time or inclination to go visit.

Yes, we in the West just put all our old folks on iceflows and send them off to Valhalla.  I think it's Art Cashin's turn tomorrow.  No doubt in all the world, only Japanese value age.  And nobody worships youth.  That's why all the manga have salarymen making love to cougars and not pre-pubescent school girls in uniform.

By the way, are you back home in the West taking care of your elderly parents, or off worshipping somebody else supposedly do that in Japan?

Best to take your emotion and sentimentality out of the trade.

 

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:24 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

I guess you're admitting that the Japanese limit the bell ringing to once a year in Japan only.

I'm not familiar with manga or video game content, or the rest of the stuff you mention, probably because it's not traded on the NYSE or NIKKEI to my knowledge.  But then again, maybe you know more about the pink sheets than most people.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Boeing Boy
Boeing Boy's picture

Japanese are xenophobes, which will ultimately become their undoing.  

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:43 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

I guess it started when they were instructed by the British that for centuries they were doing the wrong thing by taking daily baths.

However, you can take comfort knowing, Boeing Boy, that the Japanese are constructing the most difficult carbon composite part of the Dreamliner and sending that part to American factories for final assembly and testing.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 15:06 | Link to Comment Whiner
Whiner's picture

Oh, tell me if I get it. The Japanese citizenry will retire that mega-debt load with stoicism? They will go bravely as slavws into that house of poverty.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 00:10 | Link to Comment ProtectiveFather
ProtectiveFather's picture

Japan's fall will be due to demographics, not poor work ethic or not valuing geriatrics.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 07:18 | Link to Comment hero HNL
hero HNL's picture

Most Westerners don't understand the Japanese psych & investing in Japan with a Western mindset can get you burned. Japan can sustain a large debt because the national govt has a lot of hidden assets such as 1st class property throughout major cities, huge ownership of private companies (such as NTT, JAL, JT, etc...), a highly educated workforce, export juggernaut, etc....It's like the US govt owning 50% of AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, etc...They also produce goods no one else can match regarding the quality & value. See how much military components & hardware come from Japan to the US....you will be surprised.

 

I've seen too many stupid foreign companies coming here trying to do business the American way & getting screwed.....just amazed at the stupidity & arrogance of so many foreigners. It takes twice the workload & half the pay to really succeed in Japan. The level of capitalist competition in Western countries is too low compared to that of Japan. Just see how long people work everyday...a lot of time without pay.

 

 

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:10 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

 "Ward, I think there's something wrong with the Beaver"

~ June Cleaver

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:55 | Link to Comment robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

He hates the Canadians.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 22:45 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I hunted many a beaver in my younger days

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:36 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Who is his dad?   Kyle was born in Miami and his dad was a manager at the Fountainbleau hotel on Miami Beach.  Sounds pretty middle class to me.  Kyle got a diving scholarship to go to TCU (Texas Christian University) in Fort Worth.  The Ft. Worth owned by the other Bass family.

TCU is not a bad school but if his old man was loaded then Kyle would have gone to an Ivy League school. He also did it on a sport scholarship.  Now if he came from a rich family - he would have went for an MBA after TCU but he didn't. If he were Sid, Perry or Ed Bass kid - they could have picked up the phone, wrote a check and he would be at Yale the next day.

Kyle got a job at a brokerage firm then went to Bear Stearns and moved up pretty quickly at a young age.  The guy is bright.  If his father was so rich - he would not be a manager at a hotel. 

Do some research first before posting a bunch of crap.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Freddie, his dad wasn't "a manager" at the Fontainebleau, He Managed it.

Big difference. Managing the oldest historic landmark Hotel in Miami? Can you say Mafia, Drugs, Prostitution, Party Favours, Blackmail material a -plenty, skeletons in closets, favour doliing ability, political connections, women providing ability......are you 2 years old or just a blind worshipper? Sure guy seems bright and all, atheletically talented... the "other" bass family by the way.... no such thing.

Anyways, so no, when you grow up with your father managing the largest, most historic hotel property in Miami, you grow up amongst Gangsters, film stars, sprots stars, intrigue, sex, power... and then on to the Dallas Convention Center....you think the guy that manages let's say the Giant's stadium in San Francisco has a few "connections" perhaps...you are not growing up average. Plus you live in the place. Palace. Whatever.

I'll stick to my "insider, deep insider" stance.

ori

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

If his old man was so connected then why did he go to TCU on a diving scholarship?  TCU is not a terrible school but it is second tier.  It just mad ethe Top 100 in 2011 in US News and World Reports college rankings.  When Kyle was there it was probably ranked much lower.

If his old man was so rich and connected then he would have gotten him into U of Texas at Austin or an Ivy school.  He probably even commuted from home because his dad worked in Dallas.

He probably had some connections but his analysis of events, the network he has of other money managers has done some of the best research on the subject. He also was smart enough to tell U of Texas endowment to buy gold and take delivery.   

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 20:28 | Link to Comment Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

ORI you are just full of shit and are jealous of Bass, and you would love even 1% of the wealth this guy has!

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 20:44 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Yeah! Fucking beaver murderer!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 00:17 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

The subtlety of his beaver killign ways is obviously lost on you tar.

ori

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 06:30 | Link to Comment kall
kall's picture

That's a good point. I'd be tempted to ask this question to the Cohen Asset, at least they know what they are doing. I am just amazed how things are turning in our economy.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

Had God followed frogs, flies and gnats up with chiggers, I think he could have skipped the rest...

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment overbet
overbet's picture

Bass is brilliant but I am personally staying away from any trade named the widow maker.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 12:02 | Link to Comment mcguire
mcguire's picture

another question is this: if the trade does become a "winner", what will the rest of the world look like?  greek impact on the global economy has been huge, and japan will be even more, i would presume.  if this trade is profitable, "global reset" is right around the corner, so you would have to take your profits very quickly and turn them into non-monetary holdings.. 

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 12:03 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

History is littered with the skeletons of JGB shorts.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 12:27 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

Here is a funny line in the case study:

"This was the first time the deficit would exceed the tax revenues."

As I reread that, I realized that it was saying the revenues payed less than 50% of the tab.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 18:12 | Link to Comment Fluffybunny
Fluffybunny's picture

No shit

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:17 | Link to Comment smb12321
smb12321's picture

I am staying away for a different reason.  I know he is correct, but I cannot afford to lose 60% on a trade for years before recouping it.  I saw an hour interview with Bass who was great!   He defended his positions, explained the Japanese trade (this was over a year ago) and his reasoning behind his decions.  And this was in the face of a very antagonistic "interviewer" who seemed riled that he had made money on a market call. 

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:42 | Link to Comment Future Tense
Future Tense's picture

What's insane to think about is that a country like Japan or America has their savings account backstopped by the government which are only backstopped by the debt markets. The following articles talks about what backstops American savings, the strength of the FDIC's artificial promises:

 

http://www.ftense.com/2012/05/what-backstops-american-savings.html

 

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 09:55 | Link to Comment Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

How Kyle Bass kept his cool when that kurva from the BBC was interviewing (interrogating) him a few months ago, I'll never know.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

I think Kyle is right.

The teeny problem with his bet paying off is that it means lights out for just about everything.

Big difference between a little Greece spot and the world's (now) third largest economy.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

yup.  The Western world is 'japanifying'.  Basically, the are adding stimulus to economies saturated with overindebtedness, malinvestment, and poor resource reallocation.  The economies need to purge away the businesses that would undoubtedly fail, if we weren't in a ZIRP,  and QEx enviroment.  It it these companies that are misallocating capital & resources away from creative enterprises.  But dong so would imply a huge political shift,  last witnessed in the 30s.  Instead the powers that be would rather have a few 'lost decades', since the elites still prosper in such a macro-environment, while the 99% get screwed.

 

If Japan fails, it will support the case that ZIRP & QEx are not the proper policies in the long run.  Rather it clearly shows how it's a kicking the can down the road strategy, until the can turns out to be an unmovable oil drum.

 

The western economies are zombie economies, where the marginal utility of stimulus is diminishing.  And flow is used to prop up unsustainable enterprises.

tl;dr:  Western economies are like a bucket riddled with holes.  Instead of getting a new bucket (Ron Paul like change), the Fed helps the owner (crony capitalists) to fill the bucket whenever the water drains out, emptying the bucket.  It's unsustainable.  As will be shown with Japan imploding.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

I would find it hard to bet against any government with the ability to freely print.  Printing will eventually fail (as it will here, too), but it amazes me how long the debasement can last. Most of the time it takes decades, and sometimes centuries.  I guess I don't have a long enough time frame like Kyle?  Short term protection against printing is gold, which I know Kyle has plenty of, too.  On a more basic survival level, you can't go wrong investing in some long term storage food, water filters, etc....  If the SHTF like Kyle thinks it will, the housing crash was just an opening act to the main event.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Weimar?

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 23:57 | Link to Comment FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Eventually Zimbabwe, but could take a while.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.  Bass is right, and early.

 

Maybe the market will figure it out if they start evacuating Tokyo, but until then metal is the only safe bet against the printers.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment oldman
oldman's picture

@marginalcall

Marginal,

You can bet we will be the last to know if Tokyo is to be evacuated. It may be that this has already begun informally and that is the reason for so much support quietly going to Japan under the heading of declining population/pensioncosts unsustainable. I don't know that this is the case, but I do know that the public will be told after the fact.

Perhaps, Japan is the experiment in progress to see how the world will be with fewer people and, consequently, permanent deflation. A whole new school of economics coming, methinks.

The markets are not irrational; only the players-------how long? Well, how long have we been cheering for war?

Thanks           om

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 21:05 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Yeah, there's that rope tied to Europe and the US. Some think it won't matter when Japan falls off the cliff, but that rope is there.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

I admit I had a small portion of my portfolio with haymen capital during the subprime collapse, but I pulled it since kyle started going after sovereign nations which he has absolutely no right to do. we need to regulate these bandits before its too late.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:20 | Link to Comment Victorio
Victorio's picture

you're either a shitty real troll or a great sarc troll. which is it?

 

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:03 | Link to Comment azusgm
azusgm's picture

He could afford to keep his cool. The trick was to remember that one day she would probably have to interview Hugh Hendry.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:19 | Link to Comment smb12321
smb12321's picture

That was a FABULOUS interview.  He came across as cool, witty,self-deprecating and the "interrogator" looked immature and petty.   Bass says what he thinks, explains why he reached that decisions then stops.  He doesn't try to persuade naysayers that he is correct (he is not an ideologue) but simply makes his case.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Harvard Business School ...

George Bush got an MBA there ...

Its graduates have helped destroy the global financial system ...

Decades ago, Robert Townsend who saved Avis and wrote a popular business book 'Up the Organization', said in that book:

Never hire a graduate of Harvard Business School

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Harvard isn't about supplying an education it is about making connections so you can play in a rigged world.  There is not an original thought on that campus.  When was the last time you heard of some cutting edge breakthough in any field coming from Cambridge? 

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

except for those twins who invented facebook

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

They did not go to Harvard Graduate School of Business - they went to Harvard College

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

my bad, I stand corrected

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:51 | Link to Comment Mary Wilbur
Mary Wilbur's picture

Didn't they drop out?

 

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 15:42 | Link to Comment Fluffybunny
Fluffybunny's picture

Yes. Doesn't mean they didn't benefit from the time they were there.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment littleguy
littleguy's picture

Yeah, their business turned out great. Didn't they just have a stellar IPO??

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 19:47 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Turned out great for those guys, they're bazillionaires. For the suckers that gave them their money, not so much.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Harvard Business School is in BOSTON not Cambridge......

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 17:21 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I stand corrected as it is on the other side of the river.  Is that still Boston or is it Chestnut Hill or something?

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment littleguy
littleguy's picture

I concur entirely. I was a fellow at Harvard Medical School last year and can tell you that Harvard graduate students arrive thinking they know everything and leave comfortable in the knowledge that what they know is definitely correct because Harvard has the best 'teachers'. It's just about writing the best - tick all the boxes application, not about actual academics at all. 

Another case in point : Harvard Kennedy School hired Gordon Brown last year to lecture to the kids. Yeah, great institution. Let's have a man responsible for the destruction of the British economy lecture to the next generation. 

 

 

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:49 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Kennedy School is a joke. It wants to be something it can never be. It hired Gordon Brown because Ed Balls his sidekick went there and became best buddies with Larry Summers. There are lots of recycled types there like Meghan O'Sullivan from the Bush White House. It is simply a conveyor belt. Bruening, who deflated Germany became a Visiting Prof at Harvard University.

Anyway, the B School is the only place to be - it has the best campus and the best beach

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:58 | Link to Comment RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Say the idiots that have never been to the Harvard campus much less went to HBS.

Proud HBS grad here. The connections anglr only works 20 years later when 50% of your classmates are successful. The key is you sit in a room of well above average and driven people and discuss how to resolve hundreds of different types of problems.

Anuone that claims HBS and the rest of Harvard havent produced 10x more successful people then anyother single university system clearly hasnt done any research.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 14:53 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Hey Roadkill - another Baker 20 Boy here !  Good to find another !!!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 06:56 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Hello to Roadkill and Sandmann - a Section B'er here.  Guess that makes us the Three Amigos.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

You missed the point.  Successful because of insider trading and similar activities not successful because of actual independent thought or ideas.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 19:51 | Link to Comment billsykes
billsykes's picture

Actually I have to concede Roadkill is correct- I did some digging on a potential employer/coworker/investor at a company I was going to work at (he graded in the 50's- statistically I did find a higher success rate among early 80's and late 70's grads).
I dug through years of graduates and found the vast majority have done nothing special in their careers or have risen to the point where they can afford to have Adrenochrome shots.

I was actually surprised, I thought that most of these guys would be BSD, or entrepreneurs, but a huge number were just middle managers.  

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Not just George Bush - Mitt Romney too - and Jeff Skilling.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

Benny Bernanke undergrad at Harvard University.  Our world would be so much better off with all Harvard grads ex-patriated (or worse), and the building turned into a prison.

 Send your child to a weapons training school and buy him some farmland.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

but Bernanke roomed in the same House as Greenspan

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Kyle did a recent interview with Bob Pisani in his Dallas office.  Bob asked him about gold.  On the credenza behind Bob in Lyle's office was a cammo'ed sniper rifle with a scope and bipod.  It was not a Barrett.  I think it was the bolt action Remington or something.

Kyle knows his stuff.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000078074

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Actually, it is Wharton that causes the problems - you will find the Wharton grads are the ones on Wall Street like Mike Milken at Drexel  - Wharton tends to produce Wall Street fodder more than Harvard.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 16:31 | Link to Comment Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

LOL.  Our last two presidents, and maybe the next one will be a Haarvard guy.  These people are sharks and distort the truth.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment Yellowhoard
Yellowhoard's picture

KBass is da man.

He reigns.

He can explain the inane.

He can stand the pain

Till he's made the gains.

In short, the man is sane.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment rxmitch
Sun, 05/20/2012 - 19:04 | Link to Comment LongOfTooth
LongOfTooth's picture

How much credence does one give to a fellow who wears lipstick?

 

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 09:59 | Link to Comment Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Is Harvard still around?  I thought Larry Summers broke their bank with his sagacious financial advice.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:52 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Harvard is so around that the 44th President of the United States went to Harvard Law School and is contesting the election against a graduate of the Harvard Business School in November 2012

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 13:45 | Link to Comment Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

It took three Harvard numb-nuts to patch together this compilation of other people's work with some basic commentary?  Figures...

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:00 | Link to Comment iamtheeggman wh...
iamtheeggman whooooooooooooo's picture

First they mock you. BI has an article on KB's bet on Japan here:


Kyle Bass's Most Famous Trade Is A Disaster, And It Is Never Going To Work Out

http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-is-never-going-to-default-2012-5?ut...

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Joe Weaselthal is so sleep deprived, his view of the world is delusional. But being right on one big trade and making billions of dollars can also make someone delusional, so Kyle Bass isn't out of the woods yet.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

First of all, Joe is a complete idiot.  He has generated so many articles where he has proven beyond a doubt that he has absolutely zero clue about anything financial more complex than balancing his checkbook. I have soundly trashed so many of his articles that I'm getting bored of doing it. And I'm not alone.  Often, others beat me to pointing out multiple, obvious, and often stupid misinterpretations in his articles.  I and others have done the same with Blodget.  So, basically, all he and Weasenthal have managed to do with their Business Insider site is provide links other people's (sometimes good) work sprinkled with their own columns which are usually garbage.  It pains me to see links to their site used on RT and The Keiser Report when the original author's site should be referred to.

And I've read and watched everything I can find that Kyle has said about Japan. Believe me, take his word for it if you don't do the same. It is as much of a no-brainer as was his prediction of the housing bust.  It will pay off eventually in a huge way, but only when exactly the same sort of hopium based, delusional thinking preventing the EU from tanking as it deserves to do has run its course.  And as he has pointed out, that can and has happened virtually overnight with bond markets.  But only really big players like him can keep pumping in money on that sure thing bet until reality sets in like it did in 2008.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Bollixed
Bollixed's picture

I was playing around on "The Onion" ( http://www.theonion.com/ ) especially watching those great videos the other day, and then went to the BI website and lo and behold when you do that your senses can barely tell the difference between the two sites.

The BI website becomes a surreal landscape of nonsense in that context. Try it. Your brain will see BI as having the same level of foolishness only without the humor. So what you get is Henry's sensational headline writing with clueless folks like Joe the Dumber trying to write blurbs out of his ass. The combination lowers the IQ of the internet daily. It's weird entertainment, that's for sure...

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 12:29 | Link to Comment palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

If Kyle's Short Japanese fund is skewed to Real Estate e.g. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TSEREIT:IND

then the toxic radioactivity of the Fukishima tragedy could realize a great windfall if Tokyo is ever deemed uninhabitable.

However, given such a scenario the short would readily approach a market to zero in no time and contraction would be rapid.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1151397/1/.html

Even without that nightmare scenario the future for the country is one of increased health issues for its citizens and a crumbling energy infrastructure dedicated to non-nukes when it previously was disproportionately dependent upon it.  It's just a matter of time sadly, only the time frame is yet to be determined.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Bagbalm
Bagbalm's picture

You have to take a position before everyone else but close enough not to run out of money sustaining it. Not an easy task.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Kyle is likely correct, but if the payout is in USD, can he get rid of them fast enough to actually realize a gain?

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment MrPoopypants
MrPoopypants's picture

I thought a basic tenet of trading was to wait for price confirmation...

He could be making money now, to use for his Japan bet when it actually starts to take off.

Timing is everything. The market can stay irrational...etc etc

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

As Bass often says,that bet is only a hedge for his trading.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Bass will be proven right, not so much by technical analysis, but because Japan is doomed by the fact that the ongoing Fukushima radiation has no quick fix and if Reactor 4 goes, the country is doomed.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment yabyum
yabyum's picture

If reactor #4 goes Japan will not be the only country that is in trouble. Start looking at birth defect trends in Japan and the west.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

No, that's not the primary reason.  It's all about demographics and debt to GDP.  Here is just one of many Bass interviews on this, but it doesn't cover every angle that he has discussed before in other interviews:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-quUyId2WZ0

And, BTW, here's where Weasenthal makes his biggest (huge) mistake in that article.  It is so obviously clueless (as usual) that I won't even comment on it. Just think it through yourself:

"This is the key idea that Bass is missing, and why his trade is never going to pay off. For a country that borrows in its own currency, government spending finances borrowing! If Japan spends 100 billion yen on something, that's 100 billion yen out there in the world that will eventually wind up in a financial institution, where ultimately 100 billion yen worth of JGB will be purchased.

http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-is-never-going-to-default-2012-5#ixzz1vQ9rUfNJ
Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment blabam
blabam's picture

Got a link for me? Haven't been following that story...

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:36 | Link to Comment Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

A link to the Weasenthal article or Kyle Bass' correct analysis?  If its the former, it's in my above post.  If its the latter, do a Google search for Kyle Bass Japan and you'll find all kinds of correct analysis in his investor reports and interviews.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 12:07 | Link to Comment blabam
blabam's picture

I was asking Yabyum, but your post came through before mine!

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:46 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

 

 

TPTB just needs to invent another snappy SIV program to remonetize the impeding train wreck. I’m sure they can persuade new sucker’s in the African Union to pony up on global debt obligations. Sweeping old problems under a new rug will enable kicking the can down the road possible. 

;>p 

 

Edit: Forgot link

http://www.au2002.gov.za/docs/key_oau/au_act.htm

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Kyle Bass, proof that you can indeed stay solvent longer than they can stay irrational.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

It is about to get very ugly. I post 'strange' things all the time. I should not (do not much) care. I am 100% serious however in stating that I sincerely believe 'they' are about to go 'all in'.

Some strange shit is about to happen.

"they" isn't going to just go away. "they" are going nuclear.

Mark my words... The beast is in a corner and is about to lash out.

Get out of the way and allow it room to 'exercise' till it exhaust itself.

This beast is serious, is dangerous, and it is real.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment yabyum
yabyum's picture

Iseeit? See what? Do not leave the ZH collective hanging. We thrive on da doom.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 12:37 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

ISEEIT: Wow! Thought I was the only one on this board. Channel what you see in a positive way by directing the audiance to the root problem. There is no beast, only individuals with modified DNA strands. This is why all the checkpoints are being implimented. God forbid if the general public ever knew.

Now they're aware that others know.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment thesecondslowes...
thesecondslowestantelope's picture

what a horrible misquote of Hemingway...makes me think the rest of the paper is bunk too...not to mention the MBA's and PhD's that they give out there...but we all know that already....you are better off going right to the source...

"How did you go bankrupt?" Bill asked.

"Two ways," Mike said. "Gradually and then suddenly."

 

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

All Japan has to do is kill its old people. But some would say they would never do such a terrible thing. LOL

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Fukishima anyone.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!