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Presenting: President Inflation

Tyler Durden's picture


While InTrade did not exactly 'nail' the Obamacare odds, the surge in the odds of Obama winning the election has been incredible since the announcement of QEternity. Admittedly it has coincided with some general 'foot-in-mouth'-edness by his opponent, but the record high levels over 70% are not behaving how one would expect given equity movements. In fact it appears that rather than 'the market' being the main factor in his re-election, it seems inflation expectations are more critical - especially given the huge volume rise. It seems implicitly that Meyer Rothschild's famous quote: "Let me control a peoples' currency and I care not who makes their laws" has never been more true...

It would seem stocks are not the driver of Obama's election odds...

(or perhaps there is a pairs trade here Short Obama, Long SPX?)

But the ability to debauch the currency - or implied inflation here - is much more highly correlated...

and Volume has exploded recently in this trade (perhaps as an inflation hedge?)

Of course the reflexive note here is that 'people'; watch the stock market and not inflation breakevens - so judging Obama's probability of #winning becomes an exercise in circular logic though we suspect inflation expectations will remain high (stock) as the 'flow' effect of QEternity is priced in to stocks and they are limited by stubborn things like valuations...

and just when you thought you had it figured out - given the volume surge it seems the same 'levitating algo-bots that play in out HFT-ridden equity market have taken over the InTrade market. We wonder aloud is the hope that the optics of higher odds of winning will become self-confirming - we should vote for him since everyone thinks he will win?

Data: Intrade and Bloomberg


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Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:01 | 2818691 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

King dollar!

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:14 | 2818747 metastar
metastar's picture

Come one, come all,
Witness Teleprompter vs Teleprompter in the epic battle for the title of TOTUS!

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:16 | 2818766 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

Where are the odds after his Univision interview?

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:19 | 2818775 metastar
metastar's picture

I just voted myself up!
It felt good, just like a masterbating self gratifying money printing banker.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:59 | 2818945 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Plus one for you Sir!

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 15:29 | 2819047 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

 Whip Inflation [into a frenzy] Now bitchez!...

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:20 | 2819171 richard in norway
richard in norway's picture

lol +1

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:25 | 2818812 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

He had an interview?

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:47 | 2818904 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Of course. He had to tell the hispanic world that his crappy immigration policies are all the other party's fault. THe good thing is that this technique, blaming everything on the other party, is the first time this has never been used as a political trick.   

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 15:38 | 2819071 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture




Obama: I've Learned You Can't Change Washington From The Inside

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:20 | 2819172 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture


   Well, if you can't change Washington from the inside, wtf are you running for president....why not just become a lobbyst for the middle class then???

    Seems to me you're only using some 60% of your powers anyway!



Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:18 | 2818768 Precious
Precious's picture

Meyer Rothschild.  He died, right?

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 15:26 | 2819034 takinthehighway
takinthehighway's picture

Excellent point.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 15:45 | 2819088 marathonman
marathonman's picture

One a long enough timeline the survival rate .....

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 17:58 | 2819403 ZackLo
ZackLo's picture

Yeah he did, then yields spiked across europe and the art market litterally crashed. still nothing compared to what would happen if bernanke had a heart attack tomorrow.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:36 | 2818784 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

US Dollar FX rate is a function of capital flows not a direct function of inflation. WHere is the carry trade, how are Chinese Exporters doing? People confuse the overexcitement part of a leverage cycle with the dishoarding of monied capital into circulation two different things. We are not seeing the first, we are seeing teh second.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 15:37 | 2819069 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The US dollar FX is a function of lies and deceit.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:29 | 2818822 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture





I don't buy inflation being a better indicator then the stock market. That stock market has picked accurately 88% of the time. Inflation doesn't affect the rich disproportionately like it does the middle class and poor. The poor/lower class they get bussed to vote for obama and inflation won't change that most of them do not even understand what causes inflation they just think it's the evil corporations or banks that they are told about.


Obama is stealing Wall Street from Romney



Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:02 | 2818694 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Don't vote!!! It's a trap!

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:04 | 2818701 mjorden
mjorden's picture

OR get 100% to vote ... what would that do?

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:08 | 2818720 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Lowest common denominator.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:12 | 2818744 knukles
knukles's picture

Don't vote (or won't matter) it's a Liquidity Trap!

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:15 | 2818761 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture with a rope....

....or with silver....

....take the fascist "government" down!


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:34 | 2818836 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Government corruption is priced in.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:14 | 2818877 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

A long time friend who not only thinks I can read minds (easy stuff, people highly overestimate their choice of options of likely action to take)
but also thinks I own the Holy Grail asked me at the last election who was going to win. He was 100% in PM and aware
of a crisis brewing up.

I jokingly replied that the black sheep would be the likely
winner . To take all the blame.

Crisis stretched into time as it is I would not have the slightest doubt of re-election, even though as discussed here before it doesn't matter which of the two Wall-Street
candidates eventually wins.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:08 | 2818721 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

6 for one, half a dozen for the other.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:11 | 2818737 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

Don't forget the dead people. 

Can't be dis-enfranchising all them stiffs.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:03 | 2818697 Cdad
Cdad's picture

But the ability to debauch the currency - or implied inflation here - is much more highly correlated...

Exactly.  And the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street will celebrate that it is the only way left to lift equity markets, and the only way to maintain treasury purchases via the FED.  

The enemy of the American people is clear.  It resides at the corner of Wall and Broad, and this nation will not recover until such time as someone finally turns a fire hose on everyone at that intersection.


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:13 | 2818748 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Really? Then they must have a summer house in DC.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:15 | 2818756 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Correct.  The entity to which you refer is ONE IN THE SAME.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:26 | 2818816 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Well of course it is. So instead of deploying fire hoses on Wall Street, save a few for DC. It desperately needs cleaning up.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:40 | 2818875 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture



Yes they should be prosecuted but good luck with that we have a Banksters President

Report: Cronyism, political donations likely behind Obama, Holder failure to charge any bankers after 2008 financial meltdown

CONVICTED: Bush 1300+, Clinton 1000+, Obama 0.0 (+/-)

However people shouldn't take matters into their own hands alot of innocents die that way but we can vote out people who cater to the money masters

Previous Terror on Wall Street -- A Look at a 1920 Bombing


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 15:02 | 2818954 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I thought Bush should have been impeached. I think Holder should be fired and Obama impeached. Obama will be punished by re-election. As the world turns....or perhaps doesn't turn....

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 15:31 | 2818989 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Why would that second link say ZERO when it seems like it means more like 1300?  That's a nice link, but that sort of exaggeration (error?) makes me wonder what they're not saying.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:37 | 2819226 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture



That's the Daily Bail it means obama has not prosecuted any of them NONE or ZERO

"In the report, GAI details how the George W. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations both actually took down financial criminals — unlike the Obama administration.  Between 2002 and 2008, for instance, GAI points out how a Bush administration task force “obtained over 1,300 corporate fraud convictions, including those of over 130 corporate vice presidents and over 200 CEOs and corporate presidents.”

Clinton’s DOJ prosecuted over 1,800 S&L (savings and loans) executives, senior officials, and directors, and over 1,000 of them were sent to jail,” GAI adds.

But, despite having “promised more of the same,” especially in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the Obama administration’s DOJ has not brought criminal charges against a single major Wall Street executive."

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 17:57 | 2819398 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I know what the paper said, but sometimes you have to check the footnotes.  They claim that doesn't seem to hold up when you check their source. If you care about whether what you're reading is TRUE or not, this is the source for the historical record of financial fraud prosecution...

Obviously, it doesn't matter if there is real data about this--Obama's administration has been a complete failure on bringing "law" to the big banks, which is a simple enough thing to prove.  No one would EVER claim he's done good work on prosecuting big bankers. 

It just seems silly to make up such a ridiculous claim if there's no source to back it up.  I guess they don't expect their readers to check the details.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:04 | 2818698 donsluck
donsluck's picture

It is better to vote for someone you want and lose, then someone you don't want and win.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:06 | 2818711 Cdad
Cdad's picture

How exactly is that so?  Seriously, what do you mean?


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:11 | 2818734 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

LOL. He's in Deep Outer Space...

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:28 | 2818823 RSloane
RSloane's picture

He makes perfect sense to me. I'm going to write in Ron Paul, again. I'm doing so because I cannot in good conscience pull the lever for either Obama or Romney. I'm going to vote for someone who has no chance of winning because for me its the right thing to do.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:41 | 2818861 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm writing in Ron Paul too. For the very same reasons. Plus I want them to know we are out here. Of course we are probably the first ones that will get a black hood over our heads in the middle of the night.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 15:04 | 2818961 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Great, vote your conscience. Take a stand. But it means nothing in rigged elections. In other words, you have no choice or say in the matter. NONE.

Thinking so is pure fantasy. Sorry, not meant as an insult...just an observation.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 15:16 | 2819005 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I have no illusion that there is any impact that will be had on the elections...but they will know that I refuse to accept the bullshit that they are trying to serve up.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 15:40 | 2819074 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I hear you Doc, and I know you have no illusions.

I've been on the Ron Paul wagon for close to 30 years. Guess I'm just jaded that my vote means anything at all.

Peace and good luck...

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 20:16 | 2819638 Heyoka Bianco
Heyoka Bianco's picture

Sounds good, but they, the ubitquitous invisible they, didn't give a fuck if you accepted it in the first place, so what has been gained?

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 15:06 | 2818967 Rapada
Rapada's picture

Don't let them close enough to get a hood on you.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 15:12 | 2818991 erschiessen
erschiessen's picture

Long on black sackcloth.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 17:07 | 2819310 AllTheMarbles
AllTheMarbles's picture

All the "in good conscience" Ron Paul voters will continue living their delusional lives ..... but you all know that the reality of a Ron Paul vote is a vote for four more transfomative years of the Obamolama nightmare.   The application of just a little common sense is a powerful force - but no...... really.......I can see that it much more imporant for this generation do whats best for your self-centered conscience.....really I do.....really.....all that happy horse shit has worked out really well for the past 20 to 30 years......hasn't it?  Fuck your conscience.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 15:05 | 2818962 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

Sheeple go with the winner and they will vote for either one
of two ugly dogs that the shepherds bought.

Those of us who are happy defending a losing post could not
disagree more and care less and those inclined to play by democratic slave rules should vote RP, no doubt.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:41 | 2818853 erschiessen
erschiessen's picture

I took it as he's speaking to the Zombey's.

It is easy to support and vote for someone who you think is right for the republic.


It is much more difficult to vote for someone that you know is Wrong(ney), but isn't the other douche.


Gary Johnson has earned my vote. As Governor, he actually did 'right' for New Mexico. He has a track record of shrinking government... Douche and Doucher can't say the same.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:47 | 2818908 RSloane
RSloane's picture

He's also a good vote. There are good people out there but our ridiculous MSM supports and feeds our sham of a two party system.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:09 | 2818712 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Think I'll win. Could be big.
[/bob dole]

You know that old Beach Boys song, Bomb Iran? Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran. [/john mccain]

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:14 | 2818757 pods
pods's picture

No matter who wins I know who loses.


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:16 | 2818767 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Obomney?  Rombama?  Who cares anyway?

You miss the point...

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:17 | 2818774 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Hey, I see a pair trade there.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:17 | 2818776 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Hail to tthe Bots.

The GOP selected a weak candidate to fail in November. 

There, you had your election comrades, on to the next 4 years of the American Socialist party.

Outcome of the election has already been decided. 


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:18 | 2818781 larz
larz's picture

How in the world does an arrogant community organizer from illinois where there are as many pols in jail as 'serving' and says i didnt build anything in my life while taxing the shit out of us, continues to grind away at our freedoms get re-elected

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:33 | 2818834 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Because half this country is on some type of government benefit. Food stamps, welfare, insurance, housing, disability [400% uptick there], etc. All you have to do is mildly threaten them with loss of benefits, even if that is totally not true, and they will show up to vote because it becomes in their best interest to do so. The recession helped Obama enormously. That's all people care about. Its like 'what's in your wallet' for the masses.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:20 | 2818787 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 20:29 | 2819656 Parrotile
Parrotile's picture

Being mindful that "Words spoken in jest have a habit of becoming true" . . . . . . .

If it's ok by everyone else, I'd prefer to not find out if there is an afterlife just yet . . .

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:21 | 2818792 Seer
Seer's picture

Or how about the fact that ALL(?) sitting presidents who run for a second term while a war is going on tend to get reelected.

Besides, it's all about the Status Quo...

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:21 | 2818794 Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

Jimmy Carter, snl,  the 70's are back, Inflation is our Friend, spend spend spend....

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:22 | 2818796 kicksroute66
kicksroute66's picture

Rothschild never said that moron

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:39 | 2818871 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:22 | 2818798 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Bring in the rain on the dry land, those guys can do it.


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:23 | 2818799 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Forward..Forward...into the abyss


I'm Barack Obummer and I approved this message.



Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:23 | 2818802 larz
larz's picture

is it the economy stupid?

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:26 | 2818815 JR
JR's picture

Meaningless. We’ve had no debates yet and the bets are going by a media blitz that is portraying Romney as having massive problems, such as his "47% statement from which he’s having a hard time recouping," and that Obama’s so well liked. It’s all media stuff. The poll numbers are coming from the people who want Obama reelected and this is their tactic. Also, Obama’s an incumbent president which gives him initial advantage.

But the election is Romney’s to lose and, if you ask me, these rightwing radio shows such as Sean Hannity’s seem to be doing all they can to get Romney defeated; the American people want out of Afghanistan and are sick of wars in the Middle East and the warmongers for Romney just won’t stop with their war talk.

It’s too soon to take election bets and because of the turnout and the determination of the GOP base to vote against Obama, Obama’s poll numbers will have to be at least 10 to 15 points above Romney’s for Obama to win.


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 15:15 | 2818999 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

What's meaningless is the debates. Nobody gives two shits about Romney, NOBODY. His only hope is to somehow scare the bejeezus out of swingers, as they will otherwise stay home (as they don't care about Obumer either).

The only way to dislodge an incumbent these days is appear MORE attractive. Who was the last one to accomplish that? Why Slick Willie, of course. Since Romneybot has the personality of a damp rag, he has absolutely no chance.

Not that it matters in the least. Elites win either way. The only difference is the flavor of the rhetoric.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 15:36 | 2819066 machinegear
machinegear's picture

You sir, have been fined $4000.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:01 | 2819123 JR
JR's picture

The outcome of the presidential race does matter and so do the debates. For one thing, the current president, Obama, has now become a known quantity; his relationship to the money cartel has proven to be that of a complete errand boy. And his approach to government has been shown to target capitalism, wealth creation, and individual freedom as well as a full endorsement of income transfer, even to waves of illegal immigrants.

The significance of the presidential debates is that it contrasts the presence and appearance of the candidates together for the first time. If a photograph or video is available that shows Romney and Obama together, most people have not seen it. On the same stage together even the most prejudiced voter is forced to look at a comparison, staged or not.

Like it or not, the debates are critical.

But, make no mistake, with Obama you definitely will get the socialization of America with Obamacare, more Third World immigration, more taxes on the true middle class, more government regulations on small business, more DOJ injustice, the continued assassination and incarceration of American citizens without trial, and a Supreme Court nominee to fall in line behind Kagan, Ginsberg, and Sotomayor.

Either way, would you rather have a damp rag or a damp Communist?


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 22:09 | 2819756 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

" the American people want out of Afghanistan and are sick of wars in the Middle East"

Bull-fucking-shit. There is no anti-war movement, that died when Cindy Sheehan (to whom I mean no disrespect) saw the writing on the wall and went home. Do Americans love cheap oil, cheap gas? Is the Pope Catholic?

No more Mid-East wars is not even very high on the list of "Things Americans are Too Fucking Spoiled/Stupid/Ignorant/Evil to Give Two Shits About".

It seems you are one of those people who speaks what he wishes were so (Americans being anti-war), and not what actually is (Americarns not being greedy complacent moral cowards).

PS: Cheap oil and gas aren't even the biggest factors, I'm being too generous here. Oil and/or gas were not the issue in the majority of wars the American people have quite happily supported their country's participation in (or instigation of) - Vietnam, everything in South America, Korea, Puerto Rico, Somalia, the Balkans, the Philippines, Hawai'i, and on and on.

The real mistake is to believe that a people which claims to be ethical ... really is.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:31 | 2818827 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I got Obama at -168 after the shitty NFP Prints in May/June.  Glad I did; the line has balooned from -275 in Aug to -320 to -420 now, after Mitt's Latino and 47% comments.

He'll probably end up at -500 before the election, barring any bad NFP numbers.

I love betting on elections. I just hope that the thing isn't (too) rigged and that InTrade and the sportsbooks have Pentagon moles to ensure a Romney victory (it, IMO, be the biggest politcal upset of all time....even more than Ventura being Gov of MN).

That way, when *my* guy wins, unlike the prole voters - I actually benefit from it!


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:42 | 2818887 docj
docj's picture

Well, I'm not banking on Choomy McFail at Intrade, but I know who is starting to look like a real good bet in a second term of #FailForward...


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 14:43 | 2818891 Zola
Zola's picture

DOnt make too complicated reasonings for Intrade Tyler, it is humans trading with humans , as such a lot closer to a "real" market than the other fakes out there. The only reason for the surge in Obongo is the fact the Ben has prevented any market collapse in the eyes of the participants until at last after the election. As that was the only reason Obama could lose given ROmney very poor charisma, his snub of the Ron Paul voters, a key part of his electorate, the FED action removes that tail risk-hence the rally. The nbs are back where they were before the market selloff in 2011 btw...

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 16:15 | 2819162 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

I mean, say what you like about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos.


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 17:12 | 2819321 AllTheMarbles
AllTheMarbles's picture

All the "in good conscience" Ron Paul voters will continue living their delusional lives ..... but you all know that the reality of a Ron Paul vote is a vote for four more transfomative years of the Obamolama nightmare.   The application of just a little common sense is a powerful force - but no...... really.......I can see that it much more imporant for this generation do whats best for your self-centered conscience.....really I do.....really.....all that happy horse shit has worked out really well for the past 20 to 30 years......hasn't it?  Fuck your conscience.


Fri, 09/21/2012 - 18:37 | 2819473 ultraticum
ultraticum's picture

You sir, with your vote for the candidate (Obamney) who will do everything to screw the people by force in the name of "helping people" or "national security" instead of allowing the "self-centered conscience" you abhor, are the very idiot they are depending on to perpetuate the status quo.  The very same useful idiot who has run this country into the ground for the last 40+ years.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 20:20 | 2819645 Heyoka Bianco
Heyoka Bianco's picture

Shit, on a long enough alkternative timeline, Jesus busted a cap in Pilate, drove his pimped out Escalade to Rome, and ruled that bitch too, fo shizzle!

THe above scenraio is more likely than any near future that doesn't involve the entire world economy landing like a 40 pound sack of shit dropped from a helicopter.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 22:53 | 2819786 ssp2s
ssp2s's picture

If you are printing $85 Billion a month to manipulate real markets, that means there is more than enough cash being printed to manipulate "markets" like this. 

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 04:42 | 2819940 oldman
oldman's picture

Long after the Machine self-destructed and the shell of the 'system' had lost all credibility, the masses continued to talk about 'politics' as though it mattered. Some even continued to vote acting out the idiocy of a 'democracy' which was no more real than a shadow of the mind. Awaiting the 'end' they missed the beginning of the new, allowing the organism to re-organize itself. Finally, as several generations more came and went a myth was created that allowed others to steal all of the assets of the new and fully functioning system as the crowds cheered the myth each time it was paraded before them. In their ignorance all that had been restored organically by necessity was taken from the masses as easily as had always been the case and a new cycle began.

As it ever was, shall it always be?                  om

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