Presenting: President Inflation

Tyler Durden's picture

While InTrade did not exactly 'nail' the Obamacare odds, the surge in the odds of Obama winning the election has been incredible since the announcement of QEternity. Admittedly it has coincided with some general 'foot-in-mouth'-edness by his opponent, but the record high levels over 70% are not behaving how one would expect given equity movements. In fact it appears that rather than 'the market' being the main factor in his re-election, it seems inflation expectations are more critical - especially given the huge volume rise. It seems implicitly that Meyer Rothschild's famous quote: "Let me control a peoples' currency and I care not who makes their laws" has never been more true...

It would seem stocks are not the driver of Obama's election odds...

(or perhaps there is a pairs trade here Short Obama, Long SPX?)

But the ability to debauch the currency - or implied inflation here - is much more highly correlated...

and Volume has exploded recently in this trade (perhaps as an inflation hedge?)

Of course the reflexive note here is that 'people'; watch the stock market and not inflation breakevens - so judging Obama's probability of #winning becomes an exercise in circular logic though we suspect inflation expectations will remain high (stock) as the 'flow' effect of QEternity is priced in to stocks and they are limited by stubborn things like valuations...

and just when you thought you had it figured out - given the volume surge it seems the same 'levitating algo-bots that play in out HFT-ridden equity market have taken over the InTrade market. We wonder aloud is the hope that the optics of higher odds of winning will become self-confirming - we should vote for him since everyone thinks he will win?

Data: Intrade and Bloomberg

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metastar's picture

Come one, come all,
Witness Teleprompter vs Teleprompter in the epic battle for the title of TOTUS!

eatthebanksters's picture

Where are the odds after his Univision interview?

metastar's picture

I just voted myself up!
It felt good, just like a masterbating self gratifying money printing banker.

DaveyJones's picture

Of course. He had to tell the hispanic world that his crappy immigration policies are all the other party's fault. THe good thing is that this technique, blaming everything on the other party, is the first time this has never been used as a political trick.   

LMAOLORI's picture




Obama: I've Learned You Can't Change Washington From The Inside

alfred b.'s picture


   Well, if you can't change Washington from the inside, wtf are you running for president....why not just become a lobbyst for the middle class then???

    Seems to me you're only using some 60% of your powers anyway!



Precious's picture

Meyer Rothschild.  He died, right?

marathonman's picture

One a long enough timeline the survival rate .....

ZackLo's picture

Yeah he did, then yields spiked across europe and the art market litterally crashed. still nothing compared to what would happen if bernanke had a heart attack tomorrow.

WhiteNight123129's picture

US Dollar FX rate is a function of capital flows not a direct function of inflation. WHere is the carry trade, how are Chinese Exporters doing? People confuse the overexcitement part of a leverage cycle with the dishoarding of monied capital into circulation two different things. We are not seeing the first, we are seeing teh second.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The US dollar FX is a function of lies and deceit.

LMAOLORI's picture





I don't buy inflation being a better indicator then the stock market. That stock market has picked accurately 88% of the time. Inflation doesn't affect the rich disproportionately like it does the middle class and poor. The poor/lower class they get bussed to vote for obama and inflation won't change that most of them do not even understand what causes inflation they just think it's the evil corporations or banks that they are told about.


Obama is stealing Wall Street from Romney



Abraxas's picture

Don't vote!!! It's a trap!

mjorden's picture

OR get 100% to vote ... what would that do?

Abraxas's picture

Lowest common denominator.

knukles's picture

Don't vote (or won't matter) it's a Liquidity Trap!

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture with a rope....

....or with silver....

....take the fascist "government" down!


Manthong's picture

Government corruption is priced in.

TheGardener's picture

A long time friend who not only thinks I can read minds (easy stuff, people highly overestimate their choice of options of likely action to take)
but also thinks I own the Holy Grail asked me at the last election who was going to win. He was 100% in PM and aware
of a crisis brewing up.

I jokingly replied that the black sheep would be the likely
winner . To take all the blame.

Crisis stretched into time as it is I would not have the slightest doubt of re-election, even though as discussed here before it doesn't matter which of the two Wall-Street
candidates eventually wins.

Spastica Rex's picture

6 for one, half a dozen for the other.

cbxer55's picture

Don't forget the dead people. 

Can't be dis-enfranchising all them stiffs.

Cdad's picture

But the ability to debauch the currency - or implied inflation here - is much more highly correlated...

Exactly.  And the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street will celebrate that it is the only way left to lift equity markets, and the only way to maintain treasury purchases via the FED.  

The enemy of the American people is clear.  It resides at the corner of Wall and Broad, and this nation will not recover until such time as someone finally turns a fire hose on everyone at that intersection.


RSloane's picture

Really? Then they must have a summer house in DC.

Cdad's picture

Correct.  The entity to which you refer is ONE IN THE SAME.

RSloane's picture

Well of course it is. So instead of deploying fire hoses on Wall Street, save a few for DC. It desperately needs cleaning up.

LMAOLORI's picture



Yes they should be prosecuted but good luck with that we have a Banksters President

Report: Cronyism, political donations likely behind Obama, Holder failure to charge any bankers after 2008 financial meltdown

CONVICTED: Bush 1300+, Clinton 1000+, Obama 0.0 (+/-)

However people shouldn't take matters into their own hands alot of innocents die that way but we can vote out people who cater to the money masters

Previous Terror on Wall Street -- A Look at a 1920 Bombing


RSloane's picture

I thought Bush should have been impeached. I think Holder should be fired and Obama impeached. Obama will be punished by re-election. As the world turns....or perhaps doesn't turn....

blunderdog's picture

Why would that second link say ZERO when it seems like it means more like 1300?  That's a nice link, but that sort of exaggeration (error?) makes me wonder what they're not saying.

LMAOLORI's picture



That's the Daily Bail it means obama has not prosecuted any of them NONE or ZERO

"In the report, GAI details how the George W. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations both actually took down financial criminals — unlike the Obama administration.  Between 2002 and 2008, for instance, GAI points out how a Bush administration task force “obtained over 1,300 corporate fraud convictions, including those of over 130 corporate vice presidents and over 200 CEOs and corporate presidents.”

Clinton’s DOJ prosecuted over 1,800 S&L (savings and loans) executives, senior officials, and directors, and over 1,000 of them were sent to jail,” GAI adds.

But, despite having “promised more of the same,” especially in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the Obama administration’s DOJ has not brought criminal charges against a single major Wall Street executive."

blunderdog's picture

I know what the paper said, but sometimes you have to check the footnotes.  They claim that doesn't seem to hold up when you check their source. If you care about whether what you're reading is TRUE or not, this is the source for the historical record of financial fraud prosecution...

Obviously, it doesn't matter if there is real data about this--Obama's administration has been a complete failure on bringing "law" to the big banks, which is a simple enough thing to prove.  No one would EVER claim he's done good work on prosecuting big bankers. 

It just seems silly to make up such a ridiculous claim if there's no source to back it up.  I guess they don't expect their readers to check the details.

donsluck's picture

It is better to vote for someone you want and lose, then someone you don't want and win.

Cdad's picture

How exactly is that so?  Seriously, what do you mean?


Bay of Pigs's picture

LOL. He's in Deep Outer Space...

RSloane's picture

He makes perfect sense to me. I'm going to write in Ron Paul, again. I'm doing so because I cannot in good conscience pull the lever for either Obama or Romney. I'm going to vote for someone who has no chance of winning because for me its the right thing to do.

Dr. Engali's picture

I'm writing in Ron Paul too. For the very same reasons. Plus I want them to know we are out here. Of course we are probably the first ones that will get a black hood over our heads in the middle of the night.

Bay of Pigs's picture

Great, vote your conscience. Take a stand. But it means nothing in rigged elections. In other words, you have no choice or say in the matter. NONE.

Thinking so is pure fantasy. Sorry, not meant as an insult...just an observation.

Dr. Engali's picture

I have no illusion that there is any impact that will be had on the elections...but they will know that I refuse to accept the bullshit that they are trying to serve up.

Bay of Pigs's picture

I hear you Doc, and I know you have no illusions.

I've been on the Ron Paul wagon for close to 30 years. Guess I'm just jaded that my vote means anything at all.

Peace and good luck...

Heyoka Bianco's picture

Sounds good, but they, the ubitquitous invisible they, didn't give a fuck if you accepted it in the first place, so what has been gained?

Rapada's picture

Don't let them close enough to get a hood on you.

erschiessen's picture

Long on black sackcloth.

AllTheMarbles's picture

All the "in good conscience" Ron Paul voters will continue living their delusional lives ..... but you all know that the reality of a Ron Paul vote is a vote for four more transfomative years of the Obamolama nightmare.   The application of just a little common sense is a powerful force - but no...... really.......I can see that it much more imporant for this generation do whats best for your self-centered conscience.....really I do.....really.....all that happy horse shit has worked out really well for the past 20 to 30 years......hasn't it?  Fuck your conscience.

TheGardener's picture

Sheeple go with the winner and they will vote for either one
of two ugly dogs that the shepherds bought.

Those of us who are happy defending a losing post could not
disagree more and care less and those inclined to play by democratic slave rules should vote RP, no doubt.

erschiessen's picture

I took it as he's speaking to the Zombey's.

It is easy to support and vote for someone who you think is right for the republic.


It is much more difficult to vote for someone that you know is Wrong(ney), but isn't the other douche.


Gary Johnson has earned my vote. As Governor, he actually did 'right' for New Mexico. He has a track record of shrinking government... Douche and Doucher can't say the same.