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Presenting: President Inflation
While InTrade did not exactly 'nail' the Obamacare odds, the surge in the odds of Obama winning the election has been incredible since the announcement of QEternity. Admittedly it has coincided with some general 'foot-in-mouth'-edness by his opponent, but the record high levels over 70% are not behaving how one would expect given equity movements. In fact it appears that rather than 'the market' being the main factor in his re-election, it seems inflation expectations are more critical - especially given the huge volume rise. It seems implicitly that Meyer Rothschild's famous quote: "Let me control a peoples' currency and I care not who makes their laws" has never been more true...
It would seem stocks are not the driver of Obama's election odds...
(or perhaps there is a pairs trade here Short Obama, Long SPX?)
But the ability to debauch the currency - or implied inflation here - is much more highly correlated...
and Volume has exploded recently in this trade (perhaps as an inflation hedge?)
Of course the reflexive note here is that 'people'; watch the stock market and not inflation breakevens - so judging Obama's probability of #winning becomes an exercise in circular logic though we suspect inflation expectations will remain high (stock) as the 'flow' effect of QEternity is priced in to stocks and they are limited by stubborn things like valuations...
and just when you thought you had it figured out - given the volume surge it seems the same 'levitating algo-bots that play in out HFT-ridden equity market have taken over the InTrade market. We wonder aloud is the hope that the optics of higher odds of winning will become self-confirming - we should vote for him since everyone thinks he will win?
Data: Intrade and Bloomberg
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King dollar!
Come one, come all,
Witness Teleprompter vs Teleprompter in the epic battle for the title of TOTUS!
Where are the odds after his Univision interview?
I just voted myself up!
It felt good, just like a masterbating self gratifying money printing banker.
Plus one for you Sir!
Whip Inflation [into a frenzy] Now bitchez!...
lol +1
He had an interview?
Of course. He had to tell the hispanic world that his crappy immigration policies are all the other party's fault. THe good thing is that this technique, blaming everything on the other party, is the first time this has never been used as a political trick.
Yes LMAO
Obama: I've Learned You Can't Change Washington From The Inside
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEuDqBFuFK4
Well, if you can't change Washington from the inside, wtf are you running for president....why not just become a lobbyst for the middle class then???
Seems to me you're only using some 60% of your powers anyway!
Meyer Rothschild. He died, right?
Excellent point.
One a long enough timeline the survival rate .....
Yeah he did, then yields spiked across europe and the art market litterally crashed. still nothing compared to what would happen if bernanke had a heart attack tomorrow.
US Dollar FX rate is a function of capital flows not a direct function of inflation. WHere is the carry trade, how are Chinese Exporters doing? People confuse the overexcitement part of a leverage cycle with the dishoarding of monied capital into circulation two different things. We are not seeing the first, we are seeing teh second.
The US dollar FX is a function of lies and deceit.
I don't buy inflation being a better indicator then the stock market. That stock market has picked accurately 88% of the time. Inflation doesn't affect the rich disproportionately like it does the middle class and poor. The poor/lower class they get bussed to vote for obama and inflation won't change that most of them do not even understand what causes inflation they just think it's the evil corporations or banks that they are told about.
Obama is stealing Wall Street from RomneyDon't vote!!! It's a trap!
OR get 100% to vote ... what would that do?
Lowest common denominator.
Don't vote (or won't matter) it's a Liquidity Trap!
....vote with a rope....
....or with silver....
....take the fascist "government" down!
BUY SILVER!
Government corruption is priced in.
A long time friend who not only thinks I can read minds (easy stuff, people highly overestimate their choice of options of likely action to take)
but also thinks I own the Holy Grail asked me at the last election who was going to win. He was 100% in PM and aware
of a crisis brewing up.
I jokingly replied that the black sheep would be the likely
winner . To take all the blame.
Crisis stretched into time as it is I would not have the slightest doubt of re-election, even though as discussed here before it doesn't matter which of the two Wall-Street
candidates eventually wins.
6 for one, half a dozen for the other.
Don't forget the dead people.
Can't be dis-enfranchising all them stiffs.
Exactly. And the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street will celebrate that debauchery....as it is the only way left to lift equity markets, and the only way to maintain treasury purchases via the FED.
The enemy of the American people is clear. It resides at the corner of Wall and Broad, and this nation will not recover until such time as someone finally turns a fire hose on everyone at that intersection.
MORE F'N BANKER PINK SLIPS, PLEASE!
Really? Then they must have a summer house in DC.
Correct. The entity to which you refer is ONE IN THE SAME.
Well of course it is. So instead of deploying fire hoses on Wall Street, save a few for DC. It desperately needs cleaning up.
Yes they should be prosecuted but good luck with that we have a Banksters President
Report: Cronyism, political donations likely behind Obama, Holder failure to charge any bankers after 2008 financial meltdown
CONVICTED: Bush 1300+, Clinton 1000+, Obama 0.0 (+/-)
However people shouldn't take matters into their own hands alot of innocents die that way but we can vote out people who cater to the money masters
Previous Terror on Wall Street -- A Look at a 1920 Bombing
I thought Bush should have been impeached. I think Holder should be fired and Obama impeached. Obama will be punished by re-election. As the world turns....or perhaps doesn't turn....
Why would that second link say ZERO when it seems like it means more like 1300? That's a nice link, but that sort of exaggeration (error?) makes me wonder what they're not saying.
That's the Daily Bail it means obama has not prosecuted any of them NONE or ZERO
http://dailybail.com/home/convicted-bush-1300-clinton-1000-obama-00.html
"In the report, GAI details how the George W. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations both actually took down financial criminals — unlike the Obama administration. Between 2002 and 2008, for instance, GAI points out how a Bush administration task force “obtained over 1,300 corporate fraud convictions, including those of over 130 corporate vice presidents and over 200 CEOs and corporate presidents.”
“Clinton’s DOJ prosecuted over 1,800 S&L (savings and loans) executives, senior officials, and directors, and over 1,000 of them were sent to jail,” GAI adds.
But, despite having “promised more of the same,” especially in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the Obama administration’s DOJ has not brought criminal charges against a single major Wall Street executive."
I know what the paper said, but sometimes you have to check the footnotes. They claim that doesn't seem to hold up when you check their source. If you care about whether what you're reading is TRUE or not, this is the source for the historical record of financial fraud prosecution...
http://trac.syr.edu/tracreports/crim/267/
Obviously, it doesn't matter if there is real data about this--Obama's administration has been a complete failure on bringing "law" to the big banks, which is a simple enough thing to prove. No one would EVER claim he's done good work on prosecuting big bankers.
It just seems silly to make up such a ridiculous claim if there's no source to back it up. I guess they don't expect their readers to check the details.
It is better to vote for someone you want and lose, then someone you don't want and win.
How exactly is that so? Seriously, what do you mean?
LOL. He's in Deep Outer Space...
He makes perfect sense to me. I'm going to write in Ron Paul, again. I'm doing so because I cannot in good conscience pull the lever for either Obama or Romney. I'm going to vote for someone who has no chance of winning because for me its the right thing to do.
I'm writing in Ron Paul too. For the very same reasons. Plus I want them to know we are out here. Of course we are probably the first ones that will get a black hood over our heads in the middle of the night.
Great, vote your conscience. Take a stand. But it means nothing in rigged elections. In other words, you have no choice or say in the matter. NONE.
Thinking so is pure fantasy. Sorry, not meant as an insult...just an observation.
I have no illusion that there is any impact that will be had on the elections...but they will know that I refuse to accept the bullshit that they are trying to serve up.
I hear you Doc, and I know you have no illusions.
I've been on the Ron Paul wagon for close to 30 years. Guess I'm just jaded that my vote means anything at all.
Peace and good luck...
Sounds good, but they, the ubitquitous invisible they, didn't give a fuck if you accepted it in the first place, so what has been gained?
Don't let them close enough to get a hood on you.
Long on black sackcloth.
All the "in good conscience" Ron Paul voters will continue living their delusional lives ..... but you all know that the reality of a Ron Paul vote is a vote for four more transfomative years of the Obamolama nightmare. The application of just a little common sense is a powerful force - but no...... really.......I can see that it much more imporant for this generation do whats best for your self-centered conscience.....really I do.....really.....all that happy horse shit has worked out really well for the past 20 to 30 years......hasn't it? Fuck your conscience.
Sheeple go with the winner and they will vote for either one
of two ugly dogs that the shepherds bought.
Those of us who are happy defending a losing post could not
disagree more and care less and those inclined to play by democratic slave rules should vote RP, no doubt.
I took it as he's speaking to the Zombey's.
It is easy to support and vote for someone who you think is right for the republic.
It is much more difficult to vote for someone that you know is Wrong(ney), but isn't the other douche.
Gary Johnson has earned my vote. As Governor, he actually did 'right' for New Mexico. He has a track record of shrinking government... Douche and Doucher can't say the same.
He's also a good vote. There are good people out there but our ridiculous MSM supports and feeds our sham of a two party system.
Think I'll win. Could be big.
[/bob dole]
You know that old Beach Boys song, Bomb Iran? Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran. [/john mccain]
No matter who wins I know who loses.
pods
Obomney? Rombama? Who cares anyway?
You miss the point...
Hey, I see a pair trade there.
Hail to tthe Bots.
The GOP selected a weak candidate to fail in November.
There, you had your election comrades, on to the next 4 years of the American Socialist party.
Outcome of the election has already been decided.
How in the world does an arrogant community organizer from illinois where there are as many pols in jail as 'serving' and says i didnt build anything in my life while taxing the shit out of us, continues to grind away at our freedoms get re-elected
Because half this country is on some type of government benefit. Food stamps, welfare, insurance, housing, disability [400% uptick there], etc. All you have to do is mildly threaten them with loss of benefits, even if that is totally not true, and they will show up to vote because it becomes in their best interest to do so. The recession helped Obama enormously. That's all people care about. Its like 'what's in your wallet' for the masses.
headline Nov 3-"ISRAEL ATTACKS IRAN-WWIII TO COMMENCE"
Being mindful that "Words spoken in jest have a habit of becoming true" . . . . . . .
If it's ok by everyone else, I'd prefer to not find out if there is an afterlife just yet . . .
Or how about the fact that ALL(?) sitting presidents who run for a second term while a war is going on tend to get reelected.
Besides, it's all about the Status Quo...
Jimmy Carter, snl, the 70's are back, Inflation is our Friend, spend spend spend....
http://www.telemachusleaps.com/2011/02/inflation-is-our-friend.html
Rothschild never said that moron
Proof?
Bring in the rain on the dry land, those guys can do it.
Forward..Forward...into the abyss
http://youtu.be/q6Ryt0JbDa0
I'm Barack Obummer and I approved this message.
is it the economy stupid?
Meaningless. We’ve had no debates yet and the bets are going by a media blitz that is portraying Romney as having massive problems, such as his "47% statement from which he’s having a hard time recouping," and that Obama’s so well liked. It’s all media stuff. The poll numbers are coming from the people who want Obama reelected and this is their tactic. Also, Obama’s an incumbent president which gives him initial advantage.
But the election is Romney’s to lose and, if you ask me, these rightwing radio shows such as Sean Hannity’s seem to be doing all they can to get Romney defeated; the American people want out of Afghanistan and are sick of wars in the Middle East and the warmongers for Romney just won’t stop with their war talk.
It’s too soon to take election bets and because of the turnout and the determination of the GOP base to vote against Obama, Obama’s poll numbers will have to be at least 10 to 15 points above Romney’s for Obama to win.
What's meaningless is the debates. Nobody gives two shits about Romney, NOBODY. His only hope is to somehow scare the bejeezus out of swingers, as they will otherwise stay home (as they don't care about Obumer either).
The only way to dislodge an incumbent these days is appear MORE attractive. Who was the last one to accomplish that? Why Slick Willie, of course. Since Romneybot has the personality of a damp rag, he has absolutely no chance.
Not that it matters in the least. Elites win either way. The only difference is the flavor of the rhetoric.
You sir, have been fined $4000.
The outcome of the presidential race does matter and so do the debates. For one thing, the current president, Obama, has now become a known quantity; his relationship to the money cartel has proven to be that of a complete errand boy. And his approach to government has been shown to target capitalism, wealth creation, and individual freedom as well as a full endorsement of income transfer, even to waves of illegal immigrants.
The significance of the presidential debates is that it contrasts the presence and appearance of the candidates together for the first time. If a photograph or video is available that shows Romney and Obama together, most people have not seen it. On the same stage together even the most prejudiced voter is forced to look at a comparison, staged or not.
Like it or not, the debates are critical.
But, make no mistake, with Obama you definitely will get the socialization of America with Obamacare, more Third World immigration, more taxes on the true middle class, more government regulations on small business, more DOJ injustice, the continued assassination and incarceration of American citizens without trial, and a Supreme Court nominee to fall in line behind Kagan, Ginsberg, and Sotomayor.
Either way, would you rather have a damp rag or a damp Communist?
" the American people want out of Afghanistan and are sick of wars in the Middle East"
Bull-fucking-shit. There is no anti-war movement, that died when Cindy Sheehan (to whom I mean no disrespect) saw the writing on the wall and went home. Do Americans love cheap oil, cheap gas? Is the Pope Catholic?
No more Mid-East wars is not even very high on the list of "Things Americans are Too Fucking Spoiled/Stupid/Ignorant/Evil to Give Two Shits About".
It seems you are one of those people who speaks what he wishes were so (Americans being anti-war), and not what actually is (Americarns not being greedy complacent moral cowards).
PS: Cheap oil and gas aren't even the biggest factors, I'm being too generous here. Oil and/or gas were not the issue in the majority of wars the American people have quite happily supported their country's participation in (or instigation of) - Vietnam, everything in South America, Korea, Puerto Rico, Somalia, the Balkans, the Philippines, Hawai'i, and on and on.
The real mistake is to believe that a people which claims to be ethical ... really is.
http://www.wnd.com/2012/09/secret-retirement-plans-does-obama-expect-to-...
I got Obama at -168 after the shitty NFP Prints in May/June. Glad I did; the line has balooned from -275 in Aug to -320 to -420 now, after Mitt's Latino and 47% comments.
He'll probably end up at -500 before the election, barring any bad NFP numbers.
I love betting on elections. I just hope that the thing isn't (too) rigged and that InTrade and the sportsbooks have Pentagon moles to ensure a Romney victory (it, IMO, be the biggest politcal upset of all time....even more than Ventura being Gov of MN).
That way, when *my* guy wins, unlike the prole voters - I actually benefit from it!
Well, I'm not banking on Choomy McFail at Intrade, but I know who is starting to look like a real good bet in a second term of #FailForward...
SWHC and RGR
DOnt make too complicated reasonings for Intrade Tyler, it is humans trading with humans , as such a lot closer to a "real" market than the other fakes out there. The only reason for the surge in Obongo is the fact the Ben has prevented any market collapse in the eyes of the participants until at last after the election. As that was the only reason Obama could lose given ROmney very poor charisma, his snub of the Ron Paul voters, a key part of his electorate, the FED action removes that tail risk-hence the rally. The nbs are back where they were before the market selloff in 2011 btw...
I mean, say what you like about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos.
All the "in good conscience" Ron Paul voters will continue living their delusional lives ..... but you all know that the reality of a Ron Paul vote is a vote for four more transfomative years of the Obamolama nightmare. The application of just a little common sense is a powerful force - but no...... really.......I can see that it much more imporant for this generation do whats best for your self-centered conscience.....really I do.....really.....all that happy horse shit has worked out really well for the past 20 to 30 years......hasn't it? Fuck your conscience.
DUP
You sir, with your vote for the candidate (Obamney) who will do everything to screw the people by force in the name of "helping people" or "national security" instead of allowing the "self-centered conscience" you abhor, are the very idiot they are depending on to perpetuate the status quo. The very same useful idiot who has run this country into the ground for the last 40+ years.
Shit, on a long enough alkternative timeline, Jesus busted a cap in Pilate, drove his pimped out Escalade to Rome, and ruled that bitch too, fo shizzle!
THe above scenraio is more likely than any near future that doesn't involve the entire world economy landing like a 40 pound sack of shit dropped from a helicopter.
If you are printing $85 Billion a month to manipulate real markets, that means there is more than enough cash being printed to manipulate "markets" like this.
Long after the Machine self-destructed and the shell of the 'system' had lost all credibility, the masses continued to talk about 'politics' as though it mattered. Some even continued to vote acting out the idiocy of a 'democracy' which was no more real than a shadow of the mind. Awaiting the 'end' they missed the beginning of the new, allowing the organism to re-organize itself. Finally, as several generations more came and went a myth was created that allowed others to steal all of the assets of the new and fully functioning system as the crowds cheered the myth each time it was paraded before them. In their ignorance all that had been restored organically by necessity was taken from the masses as easily as had always been the case and a new cycle began.
As it ever was, shall it always be? om