Presenting The "Superbowl Market Indicator" Or Why A Giants Victory Means Market Pain
Considering that the only thing more irrelevant in a period of centrally-planned financial suppression than fundamentals are historical chart patterns, such as the recently resurgent 'Golden Cross', which will have no bearing at all on a market which lives and dies by every eyebrow twitch of the Chairsatan and his central planning cartel cronies, we have decided to present yet another just as worthless, if much more fun market "predictor" - presenting the Superbowl Market Indicator, or the relative performance of the S&P following an NFC vs an AFC team winning the championship final. And not only that, but as SMRA adds, "on the three occasions when the Giants won the big game, the S&P 500 was lower by an average of -6.6% from the day of the Super Bowl through year-end." So while clueless pundits wax philosophical about precious metal and/or zombified "crosses", feel free to rebuke them that a Manning win will obliterate any possible gains from that particular irrelevant chart formation.
From Stone McCarthy:
For fans of NFL football, this week will be one of great anticipation, as they await Sunday's match-up between the New York Giants and the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI. While Giants and Patriots fans see this as a battle for bragging rights between New York and Boston, today's Chart of the Day shows their 401Ks may be more affected by the clash between the NFC vs. AFC.
You see, simply rooting for the Giants or Patriots gives investors little to look forward to, when it comes to equity returns. For instance, on the three occasions when the Giants won the big game, the S&P 500 was lower by an average of -6.6% from the day of the Super Bowl through year-end. When looking at the performance following New England's only three Super Bowl victories, the average performance through year-end (-3.4%) isn't much better.
On the other hand, when looked at in terms of the NFC vs. AFC, the table below proves that even Patriots fans should be cheering for the Giants. That is, in the 24 Super Bowls that have gone to the NFC, the benchmark equity index has ended the remainder of the year higher 79% of the time with averaged returns of +10.2%, while the AFC's 21 victories have been followed by gains into year-end 62% of the time, with an average return of only +3.1%.
And here is the history.
Needless to say, this is about as indicative of the future as what Punxatoawney Phil has to say about the weather.