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Presenting The "Superbowl Market Indicator" Or Why A Giants Victory Means Market Pain

Tyler Durden's picture


Considering that the only thing more irrelevant in a period of centrally-planned financial suppression than fundamentals are historical chart patterns, such as the recently resurgent 'Golden Cross', which will have no bearing at all on a market which lives and dies by every eyebrow twitch of the Chairsatan and his central planning cartel cronies, we have decided to present yet another just as worthless, if much more fun market "predictor" - presenting the Superbowl Market Indicator, or the relative performance of the S&P following an NFC vs an AFC team winning the championship final. And not only that, but as SMRA adds, "on the three occasions when the Giants won the big game, the S&P 500 was lower by an average of -6.6% from the day of the Super Bowl through year-end." So while clueless pundits wax philosophical about precious metal and/or zombified "crosses", feel free to rebuke them that a Manning win will obliterate any possible gains from that particular irrelevant chart formation. 

From Stone McCarthy:

For fans of NFL football, this week will be one of great anticipation, as they await Sunday's match-up between the New York Giants and the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI. While Giants and Patriots fans see this as a battle for bragging rights between New York and Boston, today's Chart of the Day shows their 401Ks may be more affected by the clash between the NFC vs. AFC.


You see, simply rooting for the Giants or Patriots gives investors little to look forward to, when it comes to equity returns. For instance, on the three occasions when the Giants won the big game, the S&P 500 was lower by an average of -6.6% from the day of the Super Bowl through year-end. When looking at the performance following New England's only three Super Bowl victories, the average performance through year-end (-3.4%) isn't much better.


On the other hand, when looked at in terms of the NFC vs. AFC, the table below proves that even Patriots fans should be cheering for the Giants. That is, in the 24 Super Bowls that have gone to the NFC, the benchmark equity index has ended the remainder of the year higher 79% of the time with averaged returns of +10.2%, while the AFC's 21 victories have been followed by gains into year-end 62% of the time, with an average return of only +3.1%.

And here is the history.

Needless to say, this is about as indicative of the future as what Punxatoawney Phil has to say about the weather.


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Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:44 | 2109421 kote
kote's picture


Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:46 | 2109431 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

Poor Eli.... He still gets no respect. 

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:50 | 2109454 YBNguy
YBNguy's picture

Its still bread and circuses for the masses...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:55 | 2109477 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

MMmmmmm.... Bread. 


I heard the halftime show will include several Ron Paul supporters being eaten by lions... gonna be awesome!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:57 | 2109490 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

While doomer rednecks obsess over this drivel, along with nascar and monster truck racing, top nobel prize winning economists economists are working tirelessly to correct our economic problems. Maybe one day doomer libertarians and silverbug conspiracy theorists will see this dichotomy and learn to respect their ELECTED leaders.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:07 | 2109514 battle axe
battle axe's picture

It is football, relax $. You need a hobby.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:38 | 2109580 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Just a modern day version of the gladiator games. Useless eaters obsessing over other useless eaters who happen to be good at passing a toy ball around. At least it's not as bloodthirsty as the gladiator games. Then again, at least the Romans had the stomach for blood and guts...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:05 | 2109718 economics1996
economics1996's picture

I thought roller derby was the modern gladiators.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:09 | 2109739 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

I second that. Spectacle indeed.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 21:44 | 2111513 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Bring on "Rollerball" (Johnathan, Johnathan...)

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:10 | 2109523 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

Monster trucks don't race each other.  They mostly crash into each other and drive over other cars or things that then explode or occasionally shoot flames.... and it is a fucking sight to behold.

That's all I'm saying.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:11 | 2109748 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

I-10, Broadway curve, Phoenix, AZ.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:50 | 2109932 kralizec
kralizec's picture


Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:11 | 2109526 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

Rule 1: Everything before 2009 is irrelevant.


2009: AFC  +28.4%

2010: NFC  +16.9%

2011: NFC -5.4%

AFC average: +28.4%

NFC average: +5.75%

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:01 | 2109706 economics1996
economics1996's picture

MDB,classic.  You are making a comeback.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:58 | 2110208 SaveTheGreenback
SaveTheGreenback's picture

Either the funniest post ever or your on Barry's payroll ;)

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 14:00 | 2110215 mkhs
mkhs's picture

    "top nobel prize winning economists"


It must be the peace prize: I hear they give that out for hope of change.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:23 | 2109554 jiggerjuice
jiggerjuice's picture

Punxatoawney Phil... Groundhog's Day... More lies. It's all just lies and madness. 

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 19:19 | 2111208 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

"Poor Eli.... He still gets no respect."

My wife says the same thing.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:53 | 2109474 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

If the detroit loins went and won the bowl, then a comet would come and distroy the planet, in record time. Commercials with barking dogs, who make more sense than the chairsatan, says we will be fine.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:17 | 2109537 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You sound biblically inspired... no wonder you called for the Loins to win...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:13 | 2109753 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Could you help Dr. Freud up please?

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:03 | 2109710 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Hey dude the Lions won in 1957 and there was no comet.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:15 | 2109763 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

I was at the Moroccan Grand Prix that year.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:01 | 2109986 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

There was no SuperBowl in 1957

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:30 | 2110103 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Minor detail.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 15:23 | 2110457 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Buddy Layne.... now there was a QB.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 16:09 | 2110632 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

BOBBY Layne... Another minor detail...

Geez ~ No wonder the Lions have never been to a Superbowl...

More DETROIT trivia... The original Pontiac Silverdome (where the Lions used to play & was the host of a Superbowl)... Ended up being sold for only $450,000...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 22:54 | 2111673 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yep... my bad...

then again I never did see him play...


Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:45 | 2109426 RexZeedog
RexZeedog's picture

Eli Manning...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:02 | 2109434 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

What's interesting is that the SuperBowl is being PLAYED in Indianapolis...

The COLTS franchise won two SuperBowls... (1971, 2007)... On this chart, they are BOTH listed as wins on the AFC side of the ledger... However, the Baltimore Colts were originally an NFL team (became AFC after the NFL/AFL merger in 1970)...

The Steelers (winners of 6 SuperBowls), were also an original NFL team (now counting themselves as AFC)... The Ravens (franchise), originated from the Cleveland Browns, NFL (before 1970)...

The "true" (always AFC teams, whose franchises have won SuperBowls, are)...

Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, Patriots, Broncos, Chiefs

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:48 | 2109436 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Deeper meaning possible?????????

GIANTS = Big government, Wall Street, Romney

PATRIOTS = you and me, Ron Paul


Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:49 | 2109442 frosty zoom
frosty zoom's picture

ron paul is not a CHEATER!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:49 | 2109443 battle axe
battle axe's picture

You are a retard...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:07 | 2109513 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

I'd rather be a retard WITH a sense of humor than a retard like you with NO sense of humor............what a maroon........

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:09 | 2109521 battle axe
battle axe's picture

That was a joke? You do not tell one very well ihedge. Keep working on it....

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:37 | 2109596 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Patriots = New England = Sen. Bernie Sanders, Congresscritter Barney Frank, Sen. Chris Dodd, Gov. Mitt Romney, Sen. Ted Kennedy, Sen. John Heinz-Kerry. Hardly conservative, if you ask me.

Giants = New Jersey = Chris Christie, big governor if not totally big government, and big taxes. Hardly conservative, if you ask me.


Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:47 | 2109920 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture


Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:48 | 2109438 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Well, what if there is no tomorrow? There wasn't one today.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:09 | 2109522 PeterPansDad
PeterPansDad's picture

That about sums it up for me.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:55 | 2109669 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

It's been like that for years for me.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:48 | 2109439 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Go big BLUE!!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:54 | 2109446 chindit13
chindit13's picture

Though this former wide receiver can no longer match his university 40 yard time, I have kept in touch with the game enough to know that Peyton will be watching his brother on TV just like me.  I suspect "football" means something totally different to Tyler.  I'll laugh about your gaff when I watch the game with Joey Beckham, Larry Messi, and Buddy Ronaldo.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:49 | 2109448 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

The real MVP is the bernank. Just look at him this morning, in there buying everything just to keep the S&P above 1300. What a stud.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:50 | 2109453 frosty zoom
frosty zoom's picture

giants 17,353,498 patriots -17

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:50 | 2109457 Undecided
Undecided's picture

Go Pats!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:50 | 2109458 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

The Giants? Who are they playing?

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:50 | 2109460 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Anyone who still believes that pro-sports is not fixed should go open an account with MF Global.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:53 | 2109475 frosty zoom
frosty zoom's picture

maybe corzine knows where bill belichick's ethics are hidden.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:10 | 2109525 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Really, and your proof is????

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:31 | 2109578 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Don't believe me?  Go read up onTim Donaghy and what he had to say.  Oh, he was a NBA ref, btw.  Keep your head in the sand and believe that the Pats and Giants made it back to the "big game" by chance.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:37 | 2109598 battle axe
battle axe's picture

So one bad NBA ref, and all of pro sports is fixed. Kinda throwing the baby out with the bathwater, a little overly dramatic don't you think.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:50 | 2109648 spartan117
spartan117's picture

I figured you would say that.  Here, why don't you spend a few hours here:


Should provide you with plenty of further evidence that pro sports is fixed.


But hey, if you don't want to see reality, then keep drinking the kool-aid and enjoy your "entertainment". 



Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:11 | 2109745 battle axe
battle axe's picture

I like a good scotch better....

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:25 | 2110093 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

John Parry is the head ref (with most of Walt Anderson's crew)... They're not particularly crooked... I'd be more afraid of Pete Morelli, Carl Cheffers, or Scott Green...

Though I will say that Parry & his crew were involved in more than their share of "backdoor covers" (teams COVERING point spreads that went against the Vegas House Card)...

Particularly of note were:

- Baltimore vs. San Francisco (Thanksgiving Night)... Where, the PUBLIC was all over taking the 49ers & 4 points & Baltimore covered...

- New Orleans vs. San Francisco (wildcard playoff)... Where, the public was taking the Saints & laying points & the 49ers won outright...

The pattern would suggest that the PUBLIC DOG (in the Superbowl) will prevail... The Patriots are 3 point FAVORITES, but the Vegas House Card has a 60% lean on the Giants (as well as 73% of the Money Line bet on the Giants)...

Vegas will get HAMMERED if the NY Giants win... So, expect the Patriots to win by 4 or more... My gift to you all...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 19:31 | 2111222 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

I've been formulating ideas about sports conspiracies, because I see all the ways it can be rigged while I'm watching it, so that site should be a good place to start reading up on it. Fans put too much trust in the officials and experts who call plays differently depending on which way the wind blows. It's hard to watch ESPN and see people arguing about sports as if they actually matter and on top of that it's all rigged, so fuck it.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:51 | 2109464 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Brady needs one more to cap off a great career

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:52 | 2109466 frosty zoom
frosty zoom's picture

stupor bowl, beeches!!!!!!!!!!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:53 | 2109472 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

Isn't January a bit late to be playing the World Series?

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:53 | 2109473 props2009
props2009's picture

Never has S&P closed negative for the year when Jan has been possitive and it has been an election year. Go take that.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:54 | 2109479 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture



Bears are now really reaching for it with the "superbowl indicator".

10-year has surged again to new highs, yields crashing to 1.83%, same level as the October lows when Tom Keene was screaming "10-yr. is now the new 6 mo. T-Bill"

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:58 | 2109496 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Just really looking forward to Lady Gaga's mother (madonna) doing the half time show.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:04 | 2109506 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

No worries... Eli is a coward and a doughball... he bailed on my Chargers, so I am hoping he gets all of his baby teeth knocked out.  His dad is a craven dogturd too.  Peyton has class, must have been adopted.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:12 | 2109529 battle axe
battle axe's picture

The Chargers..HAAAA HAAAA what a joke.. I needed that laugh, wow that was good...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:08 | 2110016 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

San Diego "Superchargers" FIGHT SONG

Fucking "gayest" fight song in the history of the planet... Sounds like the effin Village People...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:05 | 2109509 I should be working
I should be working's picture

Um, how much of that -6.6% is due to 2008 alone.  By that logic whichever team won the title in 2008 is a bad omen.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:08 | 2109518 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Pimco's muni-bond fund PMX going totally parabolic.


"Investors" simply cannot get enough "Paper".


Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:15 | 2109535 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Primary dealers are no longer "investors". The paper chase is mandated by the Fed and this ends with the cliff dive. STFU.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:12 | 2109528 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Haha Plosser says we may need a rate hike before 2013....Hahaha. These guys are complete morons.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:18 | 2109542 brown_hornet
brown_hornet's picture

GO BEARS...Chicago I mean.  There's always next year. Or maybe not.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:21 | 2109543 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

If CNBC is talking about the "Golden Cross" prepare yourself for a "Golden Shower".  The last time the BS network and Bloomberg Radio,   yes a radio station discussing a visual chart for 5 minutes, kept repeating a head and shoulders turn coming the market rallied significantly.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:21 | 2109546 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Giants are about to get their lil hineys Pattled. No worries.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:28 | 2109568 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Perhaps Jon Corzine, once governor of the state where the Giants play their home games, will rehypothecate the Patriots play book. If that happens the Pats are toast.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:36 | 2109591 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Hoffa is livid about talk that Corzine will be buried with him at Giants Stadium.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:11 | 2110025 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

New stadium... Hoffa is now a parking lot...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 19:34 | 2111224 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Belichick hasn't won a Super Bowl since he got caught cheating.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:23 | 2109548 j0nx
j0nx's picture

This Patriots every year shit is getting real boring real quick. It's like the Steelers of the mid to late 70's and early 80's. Why bother watching football any more because you know who's going to the SB and who will win before the season starts. I also agree that if Americans gave 25% of the time spent on shit like this to focusing on the problems that are plaguing this nation and the thieves who are running it that we wouldn't be in the mess that we are in. Bread and circus defined.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:32 | 2109585 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Relax, its football.  Not like it's tennis or curling or anything. 

And whaddya mean "patriots every year"?  They haven't won a super bowl in about 7 years. 

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:42 | 2109614 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Jonx, Do you even follow Football? You are way off..

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:12 | 2110037 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Pats are going to win...

Myra Kraft voodoo...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:26 | 2109562 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

The Black Monday crash of October 19, 1987 occurred the day after the NY Giants lost to the Buffalo Bills, giving them a 0-5 record. I remember thinking at the time that the market crashed once all the financial geniuses who rooted for the Giants realized that day (Oct. 18) that the Giants would not repeat as league champions. They were apparently all so distraught that on the following Monday morning they all clicked on the Sell button on their terminals.

Who knows for sure? If the Giants had won that game the market may not have crashed and we'd now be at DOW 36,000.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:01 | 2109696 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Such an eye for sports detail!

Are you, by any chance, channeling Howard Cosell?

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:27 | 2109565 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Wait.  Madonna's doing the half-time show?  MADONNA?!   Seriously, is this a joke?  Isn't she on the wrong end of 50 yrs right about now?  They couldn't find anyone else?  I hear the Beach Boys are doing a 50 year reunion tour this year.  Weren't they available?

Good grief, our society is more boned than if an Italian cruise ship captain were in the White House.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:30 | 2109575 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Madonna is having her wrinkles ironed as we speak. Please gawd, no wardrobe malfunctions this year. A stadium of fans turned to stone will not be good for PR.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:43 | 2109624 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Maddona? Good grief! 

Bring back Michael Jackson - even if you have to dig him up!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:14 | 2109754 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Dont piss off Maddona, did you see her crazy bulked up arms, she looks like she can bench press a house. As for MJ, they should put a stake thru his heart to make sure he is dead, kiddy perv bastard. 

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:31 | 2109832 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Re did you see her crazy bulked up arms?

Yeah - almost as big as Hillary's ankles!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:39 | 2109609 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Today, Dow down -120, S&P at 1302.......not a good sign if you are a Patriots fan.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:05 | 2109969 Raskolnikoff
Raskolnikoff's picture

Pro sports is a lot like our stock market, note, once again the Patriots must have contributed more in bribes to the ref, as Flaco threw a TD pass late 4th QTR that was simply ignored by the refs, not to mention the silly holding call that nolified an interception by the Ravens in the first quarter that wound up costing the birds 3 points. The Patriots, like the big banks, get all the calls. LOL, NFL & Wall Street, no credibility. Warren GS Buffet equals Tom 'nip n tuck Brady, both thrive on inside info and croney shennanigans.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:39 | 2110137 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Whatever team Dick Bove picks, take the other team.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 14:33 | 2110323 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

pain on the way regardless of who wins.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 19:36 | 2111228 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

We could use reverse logic and say:

1. Market pain is on the way

2. Therefore the Giants will win

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 15:03 | 2110395 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

6 more weeks of kondratieffWinter, BiCheZ!

then:  possible heavy flooding...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 16:12 | 2110650 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Punxatawney Slewie!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 17:42 | 2110995 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

Niners! Pfft!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 22:42 | 2111635 dolph9
dolph9's picture

Difficult to say who to despise more.  The idiot eggheads destroying the economy, or the idiot masses who lap up the drivel known as football.

Might as well enjoy it while you can, I guess.  Pro sports is almost completely unproductive, and as such won't survive in the Darwinian world we are rapidly going back to.

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