Presenting The "Superbowl Market Indicator" Or Why A Giants Victory Means Market Pain

Tyler Durden's picture


Considering that the only thing more irrelevant in a period of centrally-planned financial suppression than fundamentals are historical chart patterns, such as the recently resurgent 'Golden Cross', which will have no bearing at all on a market which lives and dies by every eyebrow twitch of the Chairsatan and his central planning cartel cronies, we have decided to present yet another just as worthless, if much more fun market "predictor" - presenting the Superbowl Market Indicator, or the relative performance of the S&P following an NFC vs an AFC team winning the championship final. And not only that, but as SMRA adds, "on the three occasions when the Giants won the big game, the S&P 500 was lower by an average of -6.6% from the day of the Super Bowl through year-end." So while clueless pundits wax philosophical about precious metal and/or zombified "crosses", feel free to rebuke them that a Manning win will obliterate any possible gains from that particular irrelevant chart formation. 

From Stone McCarthy:

For fans of NFL football, this week will be one of great anticipation, as they await Sunday's match-up between the New York Giants and the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI. While Giants and Patriots fans see this as a battle for bragging rights between New York and Boston, today's Chart of the Day shows their 401Ks may be more affected by the clash between the NFC vs. AFC.


You see, simply rooting for the Giants or Patriots gives investors little to look forward to, when it comes to equity returns. For instance, on the three occasions when the Giants won the big game, the S&P 500 was lower by an average of -6.6% from the day of the Super Bowl through year-end. When looking at the performance following New England's only three Super Bowl victories, the average performance through year-end (-3.4%) isn't much better.


On the other hand, when looked at in terms of the NFC vs. AFC, the table below proves that even Patriots fans should be cheering for the Giants. That is, in the 24 Super Bowls that have gone to the NFC, the benchmark equity index has ended the remainder of the year higher 79% of the time with averaged returns of +10.2%, while the AFC's 21 victories have been followed by gains into year-end 62% of the time, with an average return of only +3.1%.

And here is the history.

Needless to say, this is about as indicative of the future as what Punxatoawney Phil has to say about the weather.

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Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:44 | 2109421 kote
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Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:46 | 2109431 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

Poor Eli.... He still gets no respect. 

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:50 | 2109454 YBNguy
YBNguy's picture

Its still bread and circuses for the masses...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:55 | 2109477 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

MMmmmmm.... Bread. 


I heard the halftime show will include several Ron Paul supporters being eaten by lions... gonna be awesome!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:57 | 2109490 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

While doomer rednecks obsess over this drivel, along with nascar and monster truck racing, top nobel prize winning economists economists are working tirelessly to correct our economic problems. Maybe one day doomer libertarians and silverbug conspiracy theorists will see this dichotomy and learn to respect their ELECTED leaders.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:07 | 2109514 battle axe
battle axe's picture

It is football, relax $. You need a hobby.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:38 | 2109580 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Just a modern day version of the gladiator games. Useless eaters obsessing over other useless eaters who happen to be good at passing a toy ball around. At least it's not as bloodthirsty as the gladiator games. Then again, at least the Romans had the stomach for blood and guts...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:05 | 2109718 economics1996
economics1996's picture

I thought roller derby was the modern gladiators.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:09 | 2109739 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

I second that. Spectacle indeed.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 21:44 | 2111513 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Bring on "Rollerball" (Johnathan, Johnathan...)

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:10 | 2109523 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

Monster trucks don't race each other.  They mostly crash into each other and drive over other cars or things that then explode or occasionally shoot flames.... and it is a fucking sight to behold.

That's all I'm saying.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:11 | 2109748 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

I-10, Broadway curve, Phoenix, AZ.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:50 | 2109932 kralizec
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Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:11 | 2109526 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

Rule 1: Everything before 2009 is irrelevant.


2009: AFC  +28.4%

2010: NFC  +16.9%

2011: NFC -5.4%

AFC average: +28.4%

NFC average: +5.75%

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:01 | 2109706 economics1996
economics1996's picture

MDB,classic.  You are making a comeback.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:58 | 2110208 SaveTheGreenback
SaveTheGreenback's picture

Either the funniest post ever or your on Barry's payroll ;)

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 14:00 | 2110215 mkhs
mkhs's picture

    "top nobel prize winning economists"


It must be the peace prize: I hear they give that out for hope of change.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:23 | 2109554 jiggerjuice
jiggerjuice's picture

Punxatoawney Phil... Groundhog's Day... More lies. It's all just lies and madness. 

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 19:19 | 2111208 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

"Poor Eli.... He still gets no respect."

My wife says the same thing.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:53 | 2109474 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

If the detroit loins went and won the bowl, then a comet would come and distroy the planet, in record time. Commercials with barking dogs, who make more sense than the chairsatan, says we will be fine.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:17 | 2109537 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You sound biblically inspired... no wonder you called for the Loins to win...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:13 | 2109753 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Could you help Dr. Freud up please?

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:03 | 2109710 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Hey dude the Lions won in 1957 and there was no comet.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:15 | 2109763 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

I was at the Moroccan Grand Prix that year.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:01 | 2109986 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

There was no SuperBowl in 1957

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:30 | 2110103 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Minor detail.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 15:23 | 2110457 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Buddy Layne.... now there was a QB.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 16:09 | 2110632 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

BOBBY Layne... Another minor detail...

Geez ~ No wonder the Lions have never been to a Superbowl...

More DETROIT trivia... The original Pontiac Silverdome (where the Lions used to play & was the host of a Superbowl)... Ended up being sold for only $450,000...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 22:54 | 2111673 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yep... my bad...

then again I never did see him play...


Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:45 | 2109426 RexZeedog
RexZeedog's picture

Eli Manning...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 13:02 | 2109434 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

What's interesting is that the SuperBowl is being PLAYED in Indianapolis...

The COLTS franchise won two SuperBowls... (1971, 2007)... On this chart, they are BOTH listed as wins on the AFC side of the ledger... However, the Baltimore Colts were originally an NFL team (became AFC after the NFL/AFL merger in 1970)...

The Steelers (winners of 6 SuperBowls), were also an original NFL team (now counting themselves as AFC)... The Ravens (franchise), originated from the Cleveland Browns, NFL (before 1970)...

The "true" (always AFC teams, whose franchises have won SuperBowls, are)...

Raiders, Jets, Dolphins, Patriots, Broncos, Chiefs

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:48 | 2109436 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Deeper meaning possible?????????

GIANTS = Big government, Wall Street, Romney

PATRIOTS = you and me, Ron Paul


Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:49 | 2109442 frosty zoom
frosty zoom's picture

ron paul is not a CHEATER!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:49 | 2109443 battle axe
battle axe's picture

You are a retard...

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:07 | 2109513 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

I'd rather be a retard WITH a sense of humor than a retard like you with NO sense of humor............what a maroon........

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:09 | 2109521 battle axe
battle axe's picture

That was a joke? You do not tell one very well ihedge. Keep working on it....

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:37 | 2109596 GeezerGeek
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Patriots = New England = Sen. Bernie Sanders, Congresscritter Barney Frank, Sen. Chris Dodd, Gov. Mitt Romney, Sen. Ted Kennedy, Sen. John Heinz-Kerry. Hardly conservative, if you ask me.

Giants = New Jersey = Chris Christie, big governor if not totally big government, and big taxes. Hardly conservative, if you ask me.


Mon, 01/30/2012 - 12:47 | 2109920 williambanzai7
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Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:48 | 2109438 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Well, what if there is no tomorrow? There wasn't one today.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:09 | 2109522 PeterPansDad
PeterPansDad's picture

That about sums it up for me.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:55 | 2109669 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

It's been like that for years for me.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:48 | 2109439 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Go big BLUE!!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:54 | 2109446 chindit13
chindit13's picture

Though this former wide receiver can no longer match his university 40 yard time, I have kept in touch with the game enough to know that Peyton will be watching his brother on TV just like me.  I suspect "football" means something totally different to Tyler.  I'll laugh about your gaff when I watch the game with Joey Beckham, Larry Messi, and Buddy Ronaldo.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:49 | 2109448 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

The real MVP is the bernank. Just look at him this morning, in there buying everything just to keep the S&P above 1300. What a stud.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:50 | 2109453 frosty zoom
frosty zoom's picture

giants 17,353,498 patriots -17

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:50 | 2109457 Undecided
Undecided's picture

Go Pats!

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:50 | 2109458 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

The Giants? Who are they playing?

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:50 | 2109460 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Anyone who still believes that pro-sports is not fixed should go open an account with MF Global.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 10:53 | 2109475 frosty zoom
frosty zoom's picture

maybe corzine knows where bill belichick's ethics are hidden.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 11:10 | 2109525 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Really, and your proof is????

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