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Presenting The Truth Behind America's Fiscal And Employment Picture

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Two weeks ago we penned "As US Debt Hits New Record, Fiscal 2012 Tax Revenues Are 10% Higher Than Debt Issuance" which unfortunately was very wrong: we completely forgot that tax revenues in the US are a two way street particularly from January through the end of tax season on April 15, when income and employment tax withholdings are offset by tax refunds as consumers rightfully claim (and in the process pad TurboTax revenues simply for having under-exempted themselves) what was overcollected by the government. Unfortunately, it also means that we showed the US in a far better fiscal light than it is in reality, because contrary to our conclusion that tax revenues are higher than debt issuance in fiscal 2012 (starting October 1, 2011), the reality is not only a mirror image, but worse, with total debt issued now surpassing net revenues (withholdings net of refunds) by a whopping 15%! In other words, for $710.7 billion issued in debt YTD (debt has risen from $14.79 trillion to $15.5 trillion), net tax revenues have risen only by $607 billion. Which means that contrary to conventional wisdom that the US collects in taxes modestly more than it issues, at least through the peak of tax refund season that is certainly not the case. It also means that little by little that neo-Keynesian ideal (where we hope we jest but are no longer sure) of all deficits being funded purely by debt issuance, is slowly coming true.

The chart below shows next tax revenues vs debt issuance YTD - go ahead and check: subtract year to date tax refunds from tax withholdings as of March 1 (link) and compare to debt issuance since October 1, 2011 (link).

Oops.

But wait, it gets worse.

Remember all that talk of a US employment based 'renaissance'? By definition, that would mean that more tax revenues have to be collected YTD compared to 2011, during which period the unemployment rate was logically far higher - after all it is a declining continuum, or so the BLS would have you believe. Because more people employed, means more taxes collected. Logic 101. Well, wrong.

As the next chart shows, comparing net withholdings, or total taxes withheld net of tax refunds, 2012 is now trending below the same period in 2011, by about $10 billion!

As a reminder, here is how the unemployment situtation stood at January 2011, when according to the BLS 130.5 Million people worked, when net government tax revenues were on par or better than 2012...

And compare this to the latest employment "data", when once again according to the BLS, 132.4 Million people worked.

So let's get this straight: America has seen the number of people employed rise by 1.9 million people from January 2011 to January 2012, and its unemployment "decline" by 0.7% in the same period, which means more taxes paid and thus withheld, and yet the tax collections have dropped from a period when unemployment was 9.0%?

Right.

Naturally, skeptics will say that this is purely a function of frontloaded tax refunds. Which would be great, however it is not true.

Stone McCarthy deconstructs that myth as follows:

Cumulative individual income tax refund issuance for 2012 passed issuance for the comparable period last year for the first time in the latest week. In the week ended last Friday, income tax refund issuance totaled $26.6 billion, compared to $20,9 billion last year. That brought cumulative issuance to $85.4 billion, up 5.7% compared to the comparable period last year.

Today's Chart of the Day shows cumulative refund issuance through February 17 and for the comparable period for 2012.

Refunds are lagging our forecast, however. We had projected cumulative refund issuance of $102.3 billion through February 17. We forecast total refund issuance to be up 2.6% compared to last year. However, we expected more refund issuance early in the refund seasons compared to last year, when some returns didn't get processed until after February 14.


 
Refund issuance this year has been delayed by a different set of problems. As we have noted in our prior updates, the IRS has made changes to its systems to prevent fraud, and that caused refunds to go out more slowly than expected in the first few weeks of the refund season. The IRS appears to be catching up, but hasn't said so explicitly. The "Where's My Refund?" page simply now says taxpayers who file electronically can expect their refunds within 10 to 21 days. It will take another week or two before we can start to make reasonable comparisons between refund issuance this year and last year.

Finally, even if in reality the government is somehow goosing (i.e., frontloading) refunds, all it means is that cash available to US consumers is higher than where it should be in reality, as all that has happened is that the variable responsible for 70% of the US economy has obtained more cash earlier than when it should have been disbursed. Which in turn means that the recent Personal Income and Spending data, which was so disappointing it caused Goldman to lower its Q1 GDP tracking forecast (and that is even before the gasoline price shock), is even worse when one factors out the time effect of refund collection - traditionally an economic boost as the cash is spent as quickly as it is received.

 

So.... what is this about the US economy improving again?

 


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Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:12 | Link to Comment Timmay
Timmay's picture

Dead horse, meet beating. Beating, dead horse.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:18 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

S&P, meet head & shoulders top

http://azizonomics.com/2012/03/02/bubbling-up/ 

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:10 | Link to Comment johnk78
johnk78's picture

Thank you for posting that!

 

-John
http://www.facebook.com/UnionizeTeleTechKalispellMontana

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 19:10 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

If we had no central bank, gold/silver reserves the federal government would not be able to destroy the country.  When the fiat collapses and the federal government no longer exists everyone needs to insist on 100% fractional reserve banking backed by gold/silver. 

Fucking bull shit has gone on too fucking long.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 21:23 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

It seems another critical point is, if you are going to define the dollar Constitutionally, define it in either silver or gold but not both. Let the market decide the proper ratio between the two.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 22:01 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

Like it was before 1877.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 22:33 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I don't think the dollar was ever defined in terms of only silver or only gold, was it?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 23:45 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

If you want to get perfectly technical about the national debt, that 15.3 trillion in debt belongs to The Corporation of the United States of America, not the American people.

We the people protected ourselves from a runaway federal government and its un-sustainable buildup of debt by passing The Act of 1871, making the Federal government a corporation unto itself, thus absolving the non-corporate entity's, sovereign people of the USA, from being responsible to pay the Federal corporate debt.

This short film explains a lot about it;

UNITED STATES is a Corporation - There are Two Constitutions - Sovereignty

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVsMUpPgdT0   

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 00:28 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

OT, and I will post it in another thread, as well:

 

David Stockman has gone all in on calling the Federal Reserve 'out of options' and stating that the shit's going to hit the fan (if you don't know Stockman's resume, you should, and this is incredible stuff).

Is he right, wrong, lying, putting a warning out there....????

And yes, he owns gold, saying essentially that it's risk free, and will important to hold in the period that lay ahead.

I don't know. I know he was as high ranking as it gets as an economic adviser to a sitting President of the United States.

I know that when someone like this comes forward in an intentional shout out in the loudest way possible, through the AP Wire Service (which makes its way onto every front page of every newspaper), something is probably afoot:

 David Stockman economy Q&A: Economic disaster in the works 

--USA TODAY

 

Stockman: "Here's the heart of the matter. The Fed is a patsy. It is a pathetic dependent of the big Wall Street banks, traders and hedge funds. Everything (it does) is designed to keep this rickety structure from unwinding. If you had a (former Fed Chairman) Paul Volcker running the Fed today 7/8— utterly fearless and independent and willing to scare the hell out of the market any day of the week — you wouldn't have half, you wouldn't have 95 percent, of the speculative positions today.

Q: You sound as if we're facing a financial crisis like the one that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

A: Oh, far worse than Lehman. When the real margin call in the great beyond arrives, the carnage will be unimaginable.

Q: How do investors protect themselves? What about the stock market?

A: I wouldn't touch the stock market with a 100-foot pole. It's a dangerous place. It's not safe for men, women or children.

Q: Do you own any shares?

A: No.

Q: But the stock market is trading cheap by some measures. It's valued at 12.5 times expected earnings this year. The typical multiple is 15 times.

A: The typical multiple is based on a historic period when the economy could grow at a standard rate. The idea that you can capitalize this market at a rate that was safe to capitalize it in 1990 or 1970 or 1955 is a large mistake. It's a Wall Street sales pitch.

Q: Are you in short-term Treasurys?

A: I'm just in short-term, yeah. Call it cash. I have some gold. I'm not going to take any risk.

Q: Municipal bonds?

A: No.

Q: No munis, no stocks. Wow. You're not making any money.

A: Capital preservation is what your first, second and third priority ought to be in a system that is so jerry-built, so fragile, so exposed to major breakdown that it's not worth what you think you might be able to earn over six months or two years or three years if they can keep the bailing wire and bubble gum holding the system together, OK? It's not worth it."

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 01:25 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Interesting stuff there, TIS. Same thing I've been thinking and using as a basis for my strategy for a couple of years now. I've missed out on some captial gains on the way up, but I fully expect to make up for that playing the short side when the time comes. I think the time is very very close.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 02:57 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

We the people protected ourselves from a runaway federal government and its un-sustainable buildup of debt by passing The Act of 1871, making the Federal government a corporation unto itself, thus absolving the non-corporate entity's, sovereign people of the USA, from being responsible to pay the Federal corporate debt.

If you have a social security number you are firmly in that corporate government, legally, or any way you wana look at it.

If you don't have a social security number, it doesn't matter, they assume you're firmly in that corporate government by virtue of using its currency and other trappings.

Good luck getting any court in the land to rule otherwise.

And no, you can't merely claim you're no longer part of it, it takes a court order.  And good luck getting such a court order.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 04:00 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

You're not claiming the American people are in reality feudal surfs beholden to a fascist government are you?

I don't think there's any court in the land that will admit to that.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

You're right, no court would come out and say it.

But no court will give you the necessary court order to get out of it.

Good luck trying.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 05:41 | Link to Comment ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

You actually think they care about the law. Cute.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 02:18 | Link to Comment JohnG
Sun, 03/04/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

Opps 1873.

 The Fourth Coinage Act was enacted by the United States Congress in 1873 and embraced the gold standard and demonetized silver.Western mining interests and others who wanted silver in circulation years later labeled this measure the "Crime of '73Gold became the only metallic standard in the United States, hence putting the United States de facto on the gold standard.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Interesting. Thanks.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 02:24 | Link to Comment Cadavre
Cadavre's picture

More like "before time was time itself."

No disputes like 1877's these days. The next group of leading and bit characters to have their CSPAN contracts renewed is slated well before the first touch of a snot smeared  touch screen. Today, election desputes are resolved by design - no paper - and we all know Judge Judy won't play unless you got a receipt.  When you use a paperless digital voting machine all you're doing is pressing a a button that does nothing more than check a box or turrn a page - nothing is recorder - but it sure makes us feel "American". Don't it?

Regarding article topic .. but looked a couple of times and . well ...

Is the IRS borrowing to pay 2011 refunds?

Be nice, or would it be? Scary and a confirmation at least to stack in a debt servic or scarier yet all all payments.

It gets expensive:

.5 Billion / day to top of Marine gas tanks in Afghanistan (the beauty of no bid cost plus KBR wouldn't contract AL KADA to imped fuel deliveries i would they?_

Over 400 thousand small arms rounds to kill 1 alleged Iraqi resister (one can never be too sure - they're known to play possum after eating the first 300K - wiley rascals  - exclude children and Italian reporters)

Over 300 thousand small arm rounds to kill 1 alleged Afghanistan resister (excluding pat tillman and seal team VI post success postmortem heli-crash in some remote pass and no eye witnesses)

And them DU slugs fired by GE gats at 2 to 20 K/ minute - ya know those babies are hitting 3 figures a pop to deliver. They got Iraq glowing in satellite x-ray images and human frog babies gracing anybody around that stuff.

And nothing dropped from a drone or plane is less than 100K.

And lastly, lest we forget, the FICA withholding ruse is slamming SS. SS is  a big cash utter and congress sucks it empty at every feeding opportunity by swapping  negative yield treasures to the tune of nigh near .4 Trillion a year in currency credits. I guess the Cong will instruct SS to redeem the old notes back to market at a loss to book and then use the proceeds to buy new baby lower yield notes at a premium. Margin stands - the gift that keeps on giving.

Where are they getting all that money from?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:57 | Link to Comment markmotive
markmotive's picture

Welcome to the McWage economy.

Introducing the McWage Index

 

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 03:25 | Link to Comment Cadavre
Cadavre's picture

Preparing fast food orders is a manufacturing job.

Ammortized bonds deemed "held to maturity" are marked to book value.

Amortized bonds deemed "available for sale" are marked to market (value).

The FED excludes fuel and food from inflation.

The FED fudges inflation by deeming all mortgages as "available for sale" and mark the asset to market. Not on basis of actual transactions - just some invented funny fuzzy statistical determination. No body buying foreclosed except, and thank the tiki on the hill for the "recovery" rescue bu the fuzzy math behind the inflation pig in a poke print deflate-booster-shot from: Our very famous federal NGO mortgage insurance program payouts. Americans are on both sides of the counter with the banks and DC Bus Boys in the middle.

Why didn't I think of that!

And talk about wet policy termination chum bait - how `bout them reverse mortgages!

If corporations are people, then people are corporations. Wal Mart rank and file should be able to buy wet policies on Wal Mart managers and execs just like Wal Mart  Corp buys on its rank `n file! Be a rash of BMW and Mercedez one cars for sure - we be seeing lots o new name tags pinned to new ties turning up behind the second level glass enclosing the adding machines.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

Whoever it is that wants to unionize "phone center" workers is a fucking tool and an idiot(useful).   If it is you, john, go the fuck away- we have enough collectivist tools on this site.   

Unionized  phone workers... You gotta be kidding.   That is the problem in a nutshell.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 17:39 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

that chart suggests a few more years of rising SP

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

dupe...wtf

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 23:06 | Link to Comment CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Thanx for dupe, Trav...opportunity to add xtra junk.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 19:39 | Link to Comment Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Sadly the problems are only going to get worse. Hold tight to your gold and silver.

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment duo
duo's picture

Interesting to note that MZM and M0 have increased more in the last 4 MONTHS than total M0 or MZM in 1980.  Someone tell me how that can't be inflationary.

That's a telltale sign of impending Weimar.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 12:01 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

There's so much data NOT being reported by our MSM or on business channels like CNBC  that if it weren't for the internet, which the government passionately wants to control, we would be forced to believe that we were living in the middle of rosey glory days and if you weren't happily employed and spending your ass off, something was wrong with you. 

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 14:20 | Link to Comment Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

Spiral eyes thank you for the link,

I found this comment in the link provided very interesting.

Buddy Rojek
Mar 03, 2012 @ 08:08:30

Hear hear!

When are we going to meet up in Davos, hopefully get some funding from an Oligarch for a new grass roots political movement. You cover UK, I will cover Australia.

BTW I am still waiting on Zerohedge membership where I can use my name and connect with a bigger Australian Audience. I only need 500 registered voter Australian members to register a new political party.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:32 | Link to Comment luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

"Timmay"...

 

Come on guy's, "beating" isn't doing the trick!  Give me a hand, we'll just drag it where we need it.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 19:06 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Um, I'm gonna need to borrow the head when your done.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 17:51 | Link to Comment Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

Just in from a meeting with a new client yesterday (client is fortune 100):

In response to my statement of cost for a small project the project sponsor asked if I was too expensive or if it would be cheaper hiring (Indian IT firm, name with-held)  to do the work manually. The PM responded: "That he is still cheaper than hiring 10 'habeebs' and she thought it would be a headache managing them."

There you go. Just remember you have to be cheaper than 10 'habeebs" to get a job these days.

 

BTW: this is not hyperbole. It is a precisely true exposition of what a small business faces these days in this country. Pathetic.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 18:48 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

(sound of phone ringing)...Hello, dis is Raji, er Roger. May I have your account number please?

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 02:16 | Link to Comment candyman
candyman's picture

No trickle down in my bus. yet, but, i'm in negotiions about fees getting tighter. i tell them FU your with me or your gone. Its a nice way to clean up the book. Stop thinking you are going to retire with one f'ing client.Get off the desk and move on.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 02:16 | Link to Comment candyman
candyman's picture

No trickle down in my bus. yet, but, i'm in negotiions about fees getting tighter. i tell them FU your with me or your gone. Its a nice way to clean up the book. Stop thinking you are going to retire with one f'ing client.Get off the desk and move on.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment davey
davey's picture

I'm seeing severe deflation in my business. Every time a contract comes up for bid the prices are getting lower every year.same amount of companies bidding on a smaller pie. Meanwhile I see inflation for steel fuel and parts as well as healthcare insurance. I think the proper word for today is "DEFLATION"

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 12:04 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Hello, my name is Peggy....

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment ExpendableOne
ExpendableOne's picture

I run finance systems deep in the "engine room" of a large partnership.  Clients have been renegotiating rates very agressively for the past 3-4 years.  We spend a lot of effort on formatting bills to show what our costs are and what the client ultimately paid.  Everyone wants a "deal".

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:14 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'So.... what is this about the US economy improving again?'

S&P will over rule all reality from here on out. Appreciate the effort though.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:50 | Link to Comment Shocker
Shocker's picture

If this is recession, I don't even want to think what a recovery will look like.

Nothing since 2008 has been address, to say ok we are heading in the right direction.

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 19:16 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Nothing will help. We are now too overly regulated, too union friendly and we have a tax crazy President who thinks that imitating the 1950s Soviet Union is a great idea.

Besides, employment to population is at 58.5% has been so almost for Obama's entire Presidency.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/30860B-Bridgestone-J40-fairway-3-wood-RH-14-Proj...

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:15 | Link to Comment The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

"So let's get this straight: America has seen its unemployment "decline" by 0.7% YoY, which implicitly means employment should have increased, which also means more taxes paid and thus withheld, and yet the tax collections have dropped from a period when unemployment was 9.0%?"

 

Fully possible. Welcome to the McEconomy.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:19 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

Yup, Losing a 100k+ job during the crash to gain back 2 20k McJobs would make that math very possible.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 20:17 | Link to Comment PrinceDraxx
PrinceDraxx's picture

That is correct and it's only because the rich won't pay their fair share of taxes. Oh, by the by, next year rich will be defined as:

You make more than 10% over minimum wage.

Your tax rate may be up to 100% of the overage. Windfall profits...you know?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 20:49 | Link to Comment Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

For anyone interested in contacting the IRS, whether by phone or in person, here is a convenient list of all their office locations: http://www.irs .gov/localcontacts/index.html

Anyone named Jos eph St/ack need not view.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 05:19 | Link to Comment Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

+1 for humor Conrad.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:46 | Link to Comment Shocker
Shocker's picture

Got to love how numbers can be manipulated.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:16 | Link to Comment decon
decon's picture

Just like people, if you torture numbers enough they'll tell whatever you want to hear.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 17:38 | Link to Comment The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

It´s not torture or manipulation. If someone goes from building McMansions for 120K/year to flipping McBurgers for minimum wage there is no magic behind the drop in income and thus taxes paid. It sucks that numbers reflect reality but this is the truth. Get used to making less and less money, it is whats in store for us in the west.

 

 

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 20:45 | Link to Comment ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

Also now outsourcing white-collar $120k jobs to India...accounting now a huge target for outsourcing.

When they came for me there was no one left to speak out for me...oh the humanity... the irony.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 21:50 | Link to Comment sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

They always talk about outsourcing accounting, but it never turns out too well. It's hard enough for people born here to understand all the regulations, much less someone who can barely speak English. The basic data entry, bookkeeping side can be outsourced, but anything else would be like outsourcing trial lawyers or surgeons to India. 

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 23:08 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

" anything else would be like outsourcing trial lawyers or surgeons to India. 

 

Oh dear lord - I just had an ephiphany: Outsourcing trial lawyers.

The PTB ever jump on this, they have it made - *nothing* would ever come to trail again...

Tyler, can you delete these posts?

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 14:13 | Link to Comment ExpendableOne
ExpendableOne's picture

There are legal "worker bees" in india to do things like research.  Legal outsourcing is occuring though it takes a different form than you would expect.  Think cheaper lawyers working from home around the country on tasks that do not require phyisical presence.  It's like a 2nd tier farm team for the big firms.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Sisyphus
Sisyphus's picture

Sorry, but you haven't the clue as to what you are talking about. The Big Four have a huge presense in India. Most of accounting work undertaking by the Big Four are done in India. Labor arbitrage.

http://www.rediff.com/money/2006/nov/24bpo.htm

 

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 13:05 | Link to Comment sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Sorry, but you haven't a clue. They are there to audit and consult Indian companies. It's a booming industry over there

Like I said, what is outsourced there is the baisc accounting work. A person in India cannot conduct an audit in the US without being here. 

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:15 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

LARGER DEFICITS WILL SAVE US ALL!!!!!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Can the IRS issue IOU's ala Kalifornia?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:22 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

No, but they can collect future taxes now

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:26 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Good post. +1

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:58 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

They will probably start taxing Europeans soon...

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Z Beeblebrox
Z Beeblebrox's picture

America's number one export is inflation.

Inflation is a tax.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 23:23 | Link to Comment Tegrat
Tegrat's picture

America is exporting other countries' descision of making the USD the reserve currency. Federal government's addiction to overspending has come to roost. Blame the parasitic countries who chose to do this as much as America's politicians.

 

 

 

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 06:37 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

cute - "parasitic countries"+"decided to make the USD the reserve currency" - boy, you do have a good grasp of geopolitics

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 00:25 | Link to Comment X86BSD
X86BSD's picture

I thought it was terrorism?

 

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 11:46 | Link to Comment _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

inflation is outright criminal!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:59 | Link to Comment Mariposa de Oro
Mariposa de Oro's picture

I think they can do as they damn well please, after all laws are only for the 'little people', you know, folks like us.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 23:09 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Speak for yourself, motherfucker...;-)

 

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 01:33 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Not sure what kind of pussies are junking you. I like the 'tude.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Z Beeblebrox
Z Beeblebrox's picture

That is the job of its sister organization, also born 1913.

Ninety-nine years.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 19:23 | Link to Comment TonyCoitus
TonyCoitus's picture

ZH should throw a 100 year anniversary party for the Fed!

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 07:59 | Link to Comment uno
uno's picture

can't wait to see Banzai's 4-1-9 Salute to the Fed's 100 years of Utopia

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

It will be a thing of beauty....his work is nothing short of amazing.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:18 | Link to Comment clagr
clagr's picture

What would the unemployment rate be if the 2 million people who have dropped off the unemployment rolls becaused they switched to 'disabled'? We have to be coming to the end of the administrations ability to blow more smoke.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:25 | Link to Comment t_kAyk
t_kAyk's picture

the smoke is gone, people are just not willing to accept what is before their very eyes. 

 

the administration, however, will keep blowing... 

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 20:47 | Link to Comment ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

the smoke is gone, people are just not willing to accept what is before their very eyes

The mirror?

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 12:11 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Disability entitlements, welfare entitlements, being employed...with this government they are one and the same.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"creating jobs...all of them bad ones." broke is broke no matter how you look at it. Does Mitt Romney really want to be the next President? Does Barak Obama truly want to be re-elected? George Washington himself said it best when he said (and I am barely paraphrasing here...and I mean BARELY) "this President thing SUCKS ASS." I will say this: i hope i get my refund check...if i've got one coming of course...before the government goes under. or "at least before you do." competitive refunding..."it's the thing now."

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:21 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Half the country is unemployed... Untill you try to find a plumber....

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:25 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Most people I know do their own plumbing work.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:28 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

And what do they do when their hands are dirty?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:37 | Link to Comment dwdollar
Sat, 03/03/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

That shit is brutal!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 20:08 | Link to Comment PrinceDraxx
PrinceDraxx's picture

It works great!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:40 | Link to Comment Hulk
Hulk's picture

Call a hand washer, of course...

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 18:34 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

A all American Mexican one!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 21:53 | Link to Comment sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

For simple jobs in their own homes. 

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 11:45 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

+ dwdollar

 

I've never, even remotely, seen so many people who formerly couldn't distingguish between a wrench and a pliers (I'm speaking of some hot women, also, who never had to get their hands dirty - outside the bedroom, at least), order replacement parts on the net and install themselves on dishwashers, refrigerators and toilets.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 13:45 | Link to Comment Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Yep.  I am a Woman and I know how to replace a thermocoupler on a gas furnace,  prime an oil funace and clean the nozzel on an oil fired furnace.  I can replace a bathroom or kitchen foset, repair a pipe, replace seats in plumbing handles to stop leaks.  I can put down a one peace kitchen floor with a pattern, etc.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:23 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

There may in fact be more people employed, more jobs paying taxes, yet total paid into the system is less. That is because any new job created pays less than the previous lost job. In fact much, much less.

Many of these jobs created also now make millions of people eligible for the EIC, which increases tax refund payouts by more than what the worker probably paid in at his old job.

So not only do we have less paid into the system, we now have even more going out than before. Hmmm, isn't that the definition of insolvency???

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:25 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:27 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Can we start talking about China importing wage deflation now?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 21:54 | Link to Comment sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Don't forget India, where most of the IT jobs are going

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 06:40 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

together with accounting, some marketing and just wait for tele-medicine, where you are diagnosed by a doctor in India thanks to your iDiagnose gadgets built in China

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 08:42 | Link to Comment spankfish
spankfish's picture

Is there a jailbroken app for that yet?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:39 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

i swear i dont mind getting paid in gold and silver .. ill take the price risk

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 20:19 | Link to Comment CapitalistRock
CapitalistRock's picture

"Price risk"?

You're still thinking from a fiat framework just like your masters intend. Fix that when you get a chance.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 02:47 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

you just fucking OWNED me!
+1

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:01 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I think you've got the definition a bit muddy.

As near as I can tell, when you're talking about the government, "insolvency" could only mean "revenue can't cover interest payments on the debt."

Seems that'd have to happen at some point, but it's not "imminent."  There's always the possibility that if the Fed loses control of the auction process, the government would take emergency action to prevent hard default.

The only possible path to spending cuts?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment PrinceDraxx
PrinceDraxx's picture

OUr government is so limited in producing anything that an emergency action to prevent getting a dick stuck in their collective asses would probably fail to pass. In fact, I wouldn't even want to see that legislation in front of them since there is a high probability for failure.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 01:37 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Fellas, fellas, don't forget their ace in the hole: War.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 18:24 | Link to Comment Nid
Nid's picture

Yep yep....lots and lots of "refund" dollars going to folks with net-zero income taxes paid....EIC along with Child Tax Credit of $1000 per kid.....that's how we get to the "negative" percentage of income tax paid by nearly half of Americans with income....just wait for the Food-Stamp-Personal-Esteem credit to kick in.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 18:25 | Link to Comment Nid
Nid's picture

Dupe

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 21:00 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

Isn't this jsut too obvious to be true?  LOL.  adr, you aren't sufficiently baffled with the bullshit.  You ought to know that only PhD economists and other qualified folks like our celebrated CNBC folks are able to divine the truth!

 

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:27 | Link to Comment chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

The purely logical thing for Congress to do, under the circumstances,

is to eliminate ALL taxes

and run the government entirely on printed money ....

Why collect sham taxes when they clearly do not need them?

Plus, think of all the money they could save by eliminating the IRS and ceasing to send tax cheats to jail ....

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:31 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Absolutely. And finally MMT can be put to the test.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:03 | Link to Comment KK Tipton
KK Tipton's picture

It is.....right now!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:34 | Link to Comment Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

But wouldn't this curtail governmental social engineering through tax-code? Or am I missing something? Furthermore, where would favored entities get to maintain advantages they now enjoy due to the tax code? Surely some other form of coercion has to be constructed first. Ladders for access to newly created money or outright gifts to favored political contributors, maybe campaign finance replaces our current tax structure or perhaps it already has. Interesting to think about.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 18:30 | Link to Comment Nid
Nid's picture

.....and what about the Child Tax Credit? $1000 per kid? Doesn't that run counter the the agenda of the Federal Abortion-plex?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:32 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"purely logical"... if your name ISN'T "Rothschild"...

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:44 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

CXW would disagree about the tax cheats...

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:11 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

Or another way. You have to change the nature of money a little to make it work.

Gesell came up with the idea of "demurrage". Instead of getting paid for holding money, you have to pay for the social cost of not circulating it. i.e. the money loses value over time. Money is a public good, it's there to make transactions possible so the hoarding of money is a bad thing, not a good thing. It explicitly separates the store of value from the means of exchange.

There was an implementation in Wörgl during the Great Depression in the 30s whereby a holder of money had to purchase stamps to make the money valid. One per month. It should be possible for a government to exist on the charging of demurrage. What this means though is that the volume of money in circulation remains constant (inflation is limited); the supply is static but the velocity remains high, nobody wants to be left holding devaluing currency.

They try to do the same thing using inflation with normal currencies but the effects of inflation and demurrage are rather different.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 21:36 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I think instead of having the government charge me money to hold my collective earned wealth in savings, I should shoot the mother fucking government in the fucking head. I think people should be allowed to shoot people in the head who try to steal their hard earned wealth in the name of the "common good".

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 22:39 | Link to Comment beenburnedtwice
beenburnedtwice's picture

Careful there, that's some dangerous thinking that can attract some unwanted attention.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 00:14 | Link to Comment Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

A rather pithy reply to such an eruditely made case!

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 00:34 | Link to Comment Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

Now, now, tarsubil...it seems you might be blocking again...take a breath, let it out, tell us how you really feel...we're all here to support you...you are safe here, as are all of us...

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:12 | Link to Comment acetinker
acetinker's picture

Seems to me that income taxes are a kind of interest payment given over to BoA, JPM et. al.  Having long since given up the idea that our nat'l. debt could ever be paid down/off, the FedRes and member banks just take the tax receipts as profit to their owners.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:32 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

"Plus, think of all the money they could save by eliminating the IRS and ceasing to send tax cheats to jail ...."

eliminating the IRS thats ok

but

Jail is a multi-billion $$$USD$$$ industry.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:35 | Link to Comment Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

We all know folks in jail are more productive than out of jail. /sarc off

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 23:51 | Link to Comment archon
archon's picture

Yeh, careful there - cops are unionized.  They have a very storng incentive to put as many people in jail as possible.  More people in jail = need  more cops.  More cops = more people in cops's union.  More people in cops' union = more dues paid.   More dues paid = more contributions to politicians for patronage.  More money paid to politicians = political support for budgeting more money to hire more cops to put as many people in jail as possible... and the money laundering continues...

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 21:42 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I like this idea solely because I'm convinced that the dollar would be rejected domestically overnight. None of the citizens would take government paper as money as they saw prices in gold and silver go down while prices in dollars explode. It isn't a coincidence that the Federal income tax happened at the exact same time as the Federal Reserve. Militarism abroad is the pillar holding up the dollar internationally; the Federal income tax is the pillar holding it up domestically. That is why only Ron Paul dares suggest that the Federal income tax be completely abolished. 999 and the "fair tax" are just bullshit.

Sat, 03/10/2012 - 01:21 | Link to Comment Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Fiat destroys democracy.

 

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 23:16 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

that would instantly remove the dollar from having any demand whatsoever and it would become worthless.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:32 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Lies Carried Forward.....

And Obama is considering a tax cut  to encourage businesses to hire and invest in the U.S! 

not far from now, the unemployed and the ones who stopped looking for a job will be paying Taxes to SPUR the economy.

i can see that in Oil & Gas, thats one form of a hidden tax

FUCK THE GOVERNMENT

 

 

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:32 | Link to Comment Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

Worse than JAPAN!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:37 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Great comment. Between MoF/ BoJ monetary easing and that VAT they are phasing in, it looks UGLY! I won't even get started on age demographics. Those ( age demographics), are right on par with Italy and China.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:36 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

i think i now understand on the bailout, why they let the bankers continue to get those outrageous bonuses with no strings attached

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:38 | Link to Comment AndTheRest
AndTheRest's picture

The elite are sending a message to the useless feeders, "you are not wanted, please die."

 

Corporate profits have never been higher.  The stock market is booming.  The "system" has adjusted to fewer participants and is thriving.

 

Free "contraception" from the government soon to be followed by renewed sterilization efforts.  Or may Monsanto has that covered.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:05 | Link to Comment AndTheRest
AndTheRest's picture

Just found this...

 

http://www.infowars.com/monsantos-roundup-herbicide-found-to-destroy-tes...

 

Guess the answer was...yup.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:59 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

the stockmarket is hardly booming, especially if you allow for inflation. If anything it has been flat since the Tech bust. The only people making real money there are those with inside info and the CEO's.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 23:54 | Link to Comment Mike Cowan
Mike Cowan's picture

That's right and wait until more inflation kicks in.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:46 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The Death Star construction project is looking better and better.

He who rules the high ground rules the battlefield.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 18:03 | Link to Comment mt paul
mt paul's picture

the battle is

 usually won

before it starts

 

"the art of war"

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:45 | Link to Comment alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

  According to the BLS, a rise in unemployment is good for the economy because it needs to hire more people to count those recently unemployed!

   Yes, this from the BLS team who can actually print jobs!!!

(sic)

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:55 | Link to Comment selectricity
selectricity's picture

BAML pushing MBS yesterday! "Historic buying opportunity" lol

http://www.dailycollateral.com/2012/03/03/baml-cap-spreads-indicate-a-hi...

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 15:59 | Link to Comment larry david
larry david's picture

As long as they can kick the can until the next Census we're all good.  Actually we should have a Census every year, to provide good paying jobs that cannot be shipped overseas. 

Too bad we cant print some snow, ice, rain, and colder than normal temps. Maybe we need a department of government weather reporters for that. Problem solved, rally on, bitchez!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:01 | Link to Comment haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

Did anyone here not know this?

Devaluation of curency.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:03 | Link to Comment Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

One premise (lie) that is becoming part of the lexicon is that numbers can be manipulated.

We should go back and revisit that genetic mutation.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:32 | Link to Comment Manzilla
Manzilla's picture

Say word, son! This is really real yo.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:37 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

At least the BLS admits that they're full of shit

So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

And as Tyler has pointed out as soon as the government massages the labor force participation to 50% we can enjoy negative UE numbers which should be around the time U.S workers will have to pay for the privilege to work.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 22:07 | Link to Comment sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

We already pay for the privilege to work. It's called income taxes.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:39 | Link to Comment dolly madison
dolly madison's picture

The wages of new jobs are probably low, and then people get much money from the feds because of the tax credits.  Honestly, I was shocked at how big our "refund" was this year even though we had not paid any federal tax in.  It was a bad year for us, but that bad year turned into the biggest tax refund I have ever received.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:57 | Link to Comment AndTheRest
AndTheRest's picture

Good for you.  Whereas I worked 4 months of last year just to pay my federal, state, local, social security, medicare, property, and vehicle registration taxes.  You can go shit out a few babies and do nothing and collect 10 grand in "refunds" while paying in nothing.

 

Fuck the system.

 

Yea I said it again.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 18:18 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

you don't understand what she is saying, imo

that will not stop you

again

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 19:38 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I get it!

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment pauhana
pauhana's picture

I also remember a post on ZH about the possibility that the government is paying the smaller refunds but delaying the ones over $4k to as long as 7 weeks or thereabouts, noticed by a contributor who does his kids' taxes.  He found it fascinating that the refunds for the larger amounts seemed to be timed to bond auctions.  Yup, we're doin' just fine here in the good ole USA! 

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:47 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Commerical payment terms on US Tax Refunds have been extended N120.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 19:08 | Link to Comment PrinceDraxx
PrinceDraxx's picture

Anyone with a refund larger than $1000.00 coming needs to learn how to figure their taxes a little closer. The day is coming and very soon that the government will not issue your refund check. Maybe not this year but soon.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:50 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Lies backfire. "Massive economic recovery and improving job market" = people getting kicked off unemployment faster and high gas prices. Among other things.

One thing's for sure.........when tshtf our gazillionaire overlords will still have their trillions and spend their days telling us how they know the "American People" (I think they use these phrase so often because they are NOT American) are struggling.  That's actually the first step to resolving a problem is assuring everyone you know exactly what the problem is.  Of course the following steps that lead to solving the problem will NEVER be initiated because the fuckheads in charge are actually the problem and only when the pitchforks come out in the tens of millions can this problem be solved.  You can have all the protests you want. As long as the same assholes are in charge you'll get nowhere. Refer to recent history: Greece.

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment AndTheRest
AndTheRest's picture

All Western protests, like Occupy Wall Street, are masturbatory celebrations of Western Democracy and nothing more.  The elite can point to them and say, "See how long we humored these OWS fools?  Further proof of our moral superiority and the triumph of Western Democracy."

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 17:16 | Link to Comment Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

Be careful. Mentioning that insurrection is needed gets the trolls lambasting you as an "Internet Tough Guy"

I too can see where all of this is headed and it ain't pretty. Too many people I know are on a razor's edge of bankruptcy and essentially are already insolvent when you bring into focus their underfunded retirements and medical care.

If the youth in our country weren't so freaking ignorant and reasoning impaired they would be out in the streets burning shit instead of sitting in camps singing songs. There are no pensions, no retirements, no health care for them. Only obilgations and debts that they must service. Welcome to slavery, no not the illusion of freedom we have now which is still slavery, the down-right full-blown shackles type slavery. Coming to a bunch of ignorant idiots in a town near you.

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