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Presenting The Ultimate 'Muppet' Indicator

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today's MANU fiasco tipped the scale for us on the dichotomy between the seeming exuberance that occurs on the stock exchange floors (and the incipient media attached to it) and the reality of what an IPO is and what exchanges do.

Since the middle of last year - when the impossible was suddenly made possible by the US debt downgrade and markets realized that Keynesian arithmetic was an academic version of three-card-Monti - Bloomberg's IPO index has dramatically diverged in performance from the ever-exuberant S&P 500. This index of post-IPO performance sends an ominous signal. It must be clear by now that IPOs now occur when when MANAGEMENT want to cash out - simply put they are trying to maximize their gain; unlike the textbook role of markets to provide capital to new entrants to enable growth in a win-win relationship (that every underwriting broker will sell you), the IPO index clearly signals management's knowledge that 'it ain't getting any better than this' by the dismal reality of its performance.

 

 

The stock market itself is levitated (a la JPM whale-trade in IG and bottom-less pockets of vol-selling exuberance currently) to maintain the appearance of order as Muppets are stripped bare of their remaining cash in IPO after IPO while management exits, piles cash, and hunkers down. With underlying fundamentals leaking everywhere, the IPOs are crushed since there are no comps to manipulate to and hide fair-value with.

 

The divergence between new-money weakness and stuck-money strength highlights more than ever the Muppet-fleecing purpose of 'our markets'.

 

(h/t Brad Wishak of Newedge)

 

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Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:03 | 2695539 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Cashout ...does this mean Fakebook goes to 9 when the lockup ends next Friday...?? oh, the humanity !

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:06 | 2695545 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Just came from the streets.....Muppet pieces and parts everywhere.

 

Oh the puppetanity.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:26 | 2695605 F22
F22's picture

+1 for puppetanity

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 19:24 | 2695724 Dr Benway
Fri, 08/10/2012 - 20:51 | 2695889 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Wow.....that's about the size of Blankfein's head.

 

Coincidence........or not?

 

Read the instructions again....are you sure it said hand?

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 21:12 | 2695927 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

By now, the muppets have been ravaged so thoroughly that your choice of insertion is bound only by your imagination.

Sat, 08/11/2012 - 00:08 | 2696341 strannick
strannick's picture

America has become a Muppet state for US Banks

Sat, 08/11/2012 - 00:29 | 2696361 indygo55
indygo55's picture

Got a call from Fisher Investments today. They want me to invest 500K with them because they don't want me to lose out on the bull market run. I told him to blow me and hung up.

 

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 19:06 | 2695695 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Call me when you see parts of a splattered Bernank-Dimon-Blythe-Liesman-Cramer and Co. lying about, then I'll be interested.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 23:14 | 2696240 philipat
philipat's picture

Jim O'Neil was the original "Red Knight" and had the inside track. That Goldman wasn't invilved in the IPO tells you all you need to know.

PS. Is Facefuck WORTH 9??

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:05 | 2695544 JawsMusic
JawsMusic's picture

Not 9, 0.9 or maybe 0.09......

 

 

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:31 | 2695612 Daily Bail
Daily Bail's picture

Speaking of Muppets:

Perhaps this secret revelation might have something to do with DOJ's announcement yesterday that Goldman Sachs would NOT be facing any criminal charges:

REPORT: Five Senior Goldman Sachs Execs Gave $130K To 'Obama Victory Fund' WHILE Eric Holder Was Deciding Whether To File Criminal Charges

 

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 19:59 | 2695792 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

Daily:

 

Absolutely, totally, completely, relentlessly, irrevocably, corrupt.

-30-

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:08 | 2695553 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

I think when Kanjorski demanded that assets on the books be intentionally mismarked, there was a clear signal to the world that we will lie until the system breaks.  And break it did.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:08 | 2695555 Dina Strange
Dina Strange's picture

How sad.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:09 | 2695560 malikai
malikai's picture

I just told my broker to buy it ALL at $0.01.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:28 | 2695610 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

... sugesst he delivers the phyzz ... Toilet paper discount ...

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:26 | 2695608 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Keep playing in the sandbox.

You might be the lucky guy to find the prize the cat left in there.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:29 | 2695611 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i heard kermit was cashing out at 1400. lulz

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:30 | 2695613 saturn
saturn's picture

I like the BIPO chart very much, thank you.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:30 | 2695615 Umh
Umh's picture

Incipient?

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:33 | 2695622 Mary Wilbur
Mary Wilbur's picture

Another word for "muppet" is "dumb money." If people are stupid enough to buy an IPO, especially one as hyped as Fake Book, then they deserve to lose their money. The greater the hype, the greater the loss.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:44 | 2695641 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

 Me thinks there would be some probs with Dept of Homeland Gestapo when all the Muppet-Pension-Funds start to dump all  stocks & T-dypers and start stackin gold, weapons & ammo ... :-P

Tylers reported already executed  dutch gold confiscation . TINA - feed the bulimic beasts ....

 

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 19:01 | 2695643 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Mary, you're passing the buck ...bullshit/ers deserves a heavy punch in the face at source, don't further patronise the dumb money

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 19:22 | 2695720 knukles
knukles's picture

Is that what they meant when they called me....

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 21:08 | 2695921 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

the more they advertise, the less you need it.  i forgot to eat today because i missed the mcd's ad?

 

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 19:00 | 2695636 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"...highlights more than ever the Muppet-fleecing purpose of our markets."

this era well-deserves a grizzly end, let's hope the scum that ram the financial industry and are little more than fraudsters get taken to the cleaners in the great collapse

asset strip the crooked fat cats and their gobby shills 

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:45 | 2695644 Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

Anyone selling itself today is doing it for a reason.  The company I last worked for sold itself this summer to an investment group.  I'm ROTFLMAO cause I know what shape that company was in.  Not the EPS, EBITA, etc.  But the underlying problems that the new owners will have to deal with when they finally uncover them.  Not all is what it seems, LOL, and as they say, there's a sucker born every minute. 

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:55 | 2695667 vegas
vegas's picture

What do exchanges do? Seriously, you have to have your fucking head in the sand to not realize they exist to promote price skimming, political money laundering, and outright theft of client funds. Did I miss anything? Of course, they will pimp IPO's until the end of time; or until the revolution, whichever comes first.

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 19:16 | 2695707 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

The smart money's on the end of time.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 18:56 | 2695669 Pancho Villa
Pancho Villa's picture

The very successful Netscape IPO in August, 1995 is viewed by many as the kick-off event for what became the dot.com bubble. It went from $28 to $75 on the first day of trading. And actually, they had originally planned the IPO at $14, but they upped it to $28 just before the offering.

How far we are from those heady days of the mid-90's!

Of course, we are wiser now. What is Netscape worth today?

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 19:44 | 2695760 magpie
magpie's picture

Those days were great, downloading Netscape
on a 33.6 modem while i was being laughed at for buying gold and silver.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 19:06 | 2695694 q99x2
q99x2's picture

WWIII is starting. BTFD.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 20:16 | 2695825 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'm long GLW already!  GORILLA  GLASS, Broken window theory.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 19:18 | 2695710 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

and the gift obama got back is your ramp in the market. See. everyone is all happy happy

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 19:34 | 2695745 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Funny.

 

Dow volume was low to the extreme, yet the market climbed higher.  Let's see what the algo's bring us on Monday.

 

http://bit.ly/NsVPEy

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 21:06 | 2695917 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

depends on what's fixed.  seems everything is fixed, so at this point, maybe waiting for good news.  that's a lot of fun.  it's hilarious. 

for us muppets, it's all fixed.  but at the top - it's still a huge power struggle.  i break it down here, but there are still other players, this is the simple version.

right now what is going on is this.  jamie dimon at jpm is either long or short and wants qe5 or doesn't.  lloyd blankfein is either long or short and does or doesn't want qe6.  poor bennie is trying to figure out who he loves more (or who loves him more).  

old story the fed doesn't play politics is really appearing silly.  obama loses, bennie has to cool his jets at princeton and can't get to experiment any more on his theorys of global economys.  

morgan stanley is loved and is out of biz.  but poor timmie hasn't closed the deal yet, does he give ms assets to jamie or lloyd  ?lloyd has clearly been the smarter - he's kept his nose out of the news.

 

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 19:35 | 2695748 I am on to you
I am on to you's picture

Aint this, MANU(er), former known as ,AIG(S).

Why not put, Norwegian Wood, at the New York Slot exchange.

Somebody is running out of Derives and Runs.

Funny, Humans had two choises,war or peace,that was one to much,they had to pick the wrong one,just like being number two in a Boxing match!

Well done!

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 19:41 | 2695765 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

An IPO in August, before a Preseidential Election, for a European Soccor Club, during the worst international debt crisis in 100 years in Europe...........Ya that should go great!!!!

 

Would you like your shares diluted in dollars, Euro's, Pound's, Duetch Marks, Franc's, or Greek toilet paper????????

 

Gold???....no we cant issue shares for MANU in gold backed coinage, sorry!!

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 20:55 | 2695896 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

been to greece?  flush is a luxury.  mostly you deposit in a dust bin, and add to the general rubbish to be taken out.

had to edit myself.  plumbing in greece doesn't handle a lot of paper.  tends to back up :) :)

 

 

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 19:49 | 2695779 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Also, $TNX getting dangerously high with negative implications for mortgage rates.  Central planners will need to prop 10y prices again, sacrificing a few % points in the ES.

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 20:28 | 2695794 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  The Muppetual "P'pump & D'dump"...  IPO's in this market are a joke! Corporate financing/borrowing costs are dirt cheap! That just shows you how sideways assed out M.U's credit standing is! Yea, Europe is about to disintegrate, but I need my football tickets, and team "paraphernalia"!

  It also shows you the "Risk profile" of Faceplant stock! How much cash does a company need to raise, when it doesn't produce tangible products? AAPL was born in a garage, "went ass end up", until they Incorporated the name with something " Tangible"!

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 20:04 | 2695801 hannah
hannah's picture

now this was a great article....

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 20:11 | 2695809 GoldandSilverTrain
GoldandSilverTrain's picture

Gold & silver, all the way

https://miningstockvaluator.com/

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 21:28 | 2695973 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

The divergence between new-money weakness and stuck-money strength highlights more than ever the Muppet-fleecing purpose of 'our markets'

 

Particularly when you consider how with scam IPO’s like Facebook, a large percentage of buyers are virtually guaranteed. By launching a company big enough make it into the S&P 500 or other major index, funds that track those indices must make purchases of the IPO shares to balance their Portfolio. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, and that’s a lot of 401k’s and retirement plans getting fleeced without the investors really even being aware of what’s happening to them.

 

All that Wall Street does to make money these days is look for opportunities to manipulate weakness in the structure of the markets they created and find ways to violate the regulations which they wrote.

 

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 23:16 | 2696248 FRBNYrCROOKS
FRBNYrCROOKS's picture

When are the poor slobs, who get raped everytime we get a pay cxheck stub, going to stand together in one place; carrying our razor sharp machetes, and cut the cables to every HFT.....colocated facility? We get to read about "those guys who go to Temple on Saturday" gutting the value of our savings and our Gov't (enemy) does nothing? Where is Eric Holder? What the fuck is that guy doing; other than getting gold ingots delivered to his Swiss Box, to indict the criminals on Wall Street? I read today "Not enough evidence to charge Goldman-Sachs for defrauding Joe six-pack"? WTF? When are we going to sharpen our pikes and march? How awful for the children with such flacid parents!!!! WEAK!!!!!!!

Fri, 08/10/2012 - 23:53 | 2696322 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Actually the IPO quid pro quo trade does more than stick cash in the hands of company insiders and pump fees to underwriters. It also allows banks to turn debt into equity and equity into collateral.

Obviously there is attempted public fleecing and bagholdering ... but the biggest issue I see for the banks is: once they have turned debt into equity and collateral, they cannot allow that equity/collateral to decline in value, otherwise it increases their leverage ratio.

The stock market MUST stay up, otherwise the banks are screwed.

Sat, 08/11/2012 - 10:28 | 2697015 WarPony
WarPony's picture

This IPO "un-load" rung bells for me when Carlyle Group went public - somehow, they beat the recent trend (so far)?

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