Presenting Whitney Tilson's Performance Since Inception Relative To The S&P

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Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:52 | 1813093 jdelano
jdelano's picture

thanks whitney for the 12% gain on my crm puts you just handed me...but now that you're short I'm seriously considering getting out...

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:54 | 1813102 s2man
s2man's picture

J, why are you wearing a lifejacket? ;-)

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:55 | 1813111 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

Jumped ship. Comes from upbringing.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:08 | 1813128 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Wont the majority of hedge fund's charts look similar?

Isnt this why some of the big boys closed up shop?

Did those who closed see the shit storm coming?

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:12 | 1813163 redpill
redpill's picture

Many do.  If you can't do any better than S&P, you might as well quit, save yourself the embarrasment, and pray there's a market left to start up in again when dust finally settles.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:22 | 1813201 Hard1
Hard1's picture

I love the Hedge fund model, charge 2% of your assets, 20% on crazy bets income.  Just by forming a billion dollar hedge fund which is not an uncomon size the general partners have enough to live a lifetime.  Customers are left with 10-15% yearly attrition (funds that go bust!), a lottery ticket for next year's hopes and dreams!

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:04 | 1813138 jdelano
jdelano's picture

On the contrary, the jacket is stuffed with my pms which I plan on using to buy bread for my 'hood after the fall.  Will show them how to harvest methane from pig shit and teach them about crop rotation.  Hoping to be remembered as an Obama-like messianic figure and have a 16 foot tall bronze statue of myself erected in the center of town....

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:12 | 1813159 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

you know your av is from 'back to the future' don't you? i guess you didn't get the joke.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:13 | 1813166 jdelano
jdelano's picture

lol. yes, I'm aware of where my avatar came from.  And it wasn't me who junked you.  

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:13 | 1813169 redpill
redpill's picture

Master Blaster runs Bartertown!

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:23 | 1813202 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Nice. I imagine your ability to float without swimming will be something akin to Jesus walking on water.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:12 | 1813161 BandGap
BandGap's picture

An orange down vest is a lifejacket? And he's the stupid one?

Don't hunt much, do you? 

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:33 | 1813252 s2man
s2man's picture

see above reference to BTTF. and the wink in my comment.  looks like you're the only one who didn't get it.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:35 | 1813258 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

BandGap...so you missed Back to the Future part 2 then?

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 14:58 | 1813774 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Damn navy deserters. They are everywhere and clueless.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:09 | 1813145 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

At this point any question such as, "shouldn't Hedge Fund X outperform (__) index?" is akin to, "shouldn't the average drunk bum outperform that latest OTB race?"

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:08 | 1813147 kengland
kengland's picture

TD...

Who facking cares.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:23 | 1813204 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

I do ... free raw outspoken contrarian indicators aren't that plentiful in nature.

Plus, I use his kind as negative energy channeling buffer.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:40 | 1813282 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Every hedgie is a "legend", "guru", "titan", "genius".......in a fake Bernanke-induced bull market. As evidenced by the chart.....

The grizzly separates the wheat from the chaff.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:52 | 1813095 RacerX
RacerX's picture

ahh the Fall of 2010. Those were the best of times. Sigh..

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:53 | 1813097 achmachat
achmachat's picture

Bad ZH!
When I grew up, I learnt that you are not supposed to be mean to the slow kids!

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:55 | 1813106 s2man
s2man's picture

Its funny, 'cause its not me (or you)

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:57 | 1813118 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

Speaking of slow kids, I haven't seen my son running around here lately.

He probably got beat up by the cool kids.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:18 | 1813182 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

There's always one in every class, Mrs. Trader: the kid who got pantsed in gym. 

 

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 14:02 | 1813405 TravsMom
TravsMom's picture

Hey, mine used to complain about that every day.  Said they were the second worst thing kids did to him, behind swirlies, whatever those are.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:21 | 1813198 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

MILF

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:30 | 1813233 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

I'm really self-conscious I look too much like Blythe Masters.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 14:04 | 1813419 TravsMom
TravsMom's picture

Blythe ain't got nothing on you girl!

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 14:07 | 1813438 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

Thanks girlfriend!

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 14:56 | 1813754 Enceladus
Enceladus's picture

Mrs. Trader,
Robo got jacked up by TSA VIPERS on the freeway.

TSA launched a new campaign of random checkpoints on Tennessee highways last week, complete with a sinister military-style acronym--VIP(E)R

Ron Paul called to alert us. http://bit.ly/rDiE4x

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:53 | 1813098 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Their clients aren't allowed to access this site.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:53 | 1813101 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

Quite the (underperformance) gap there at the end.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:56 | 1813105 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Just seems like someone does not like him.  He tells everyone his positions and then someone in Wall Street trades against him.

After he said he was long NFLX I even though about shorting it.  I watched CRM go up after he said he was short.

Maybe he should figure out who is shorting against him.  Or is that why he now owns GS stock?

Plus, anyone who shorted NFLX when he was saying to short it got CREAMED.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:55 | 1813107 BillyTheBlade
BillyTheBlade's picture

It looks like it did outperform the S&P... until it didnt....

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:55 | 1813109 pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

higher highs and lower lows

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:57 | 1813119 Willzyx
Willzyx's picture

= leveraged beta

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:00 | 1813114 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Tilson shorted NFLX too soon, but went long NFLX recently, just after empirical proof was abundantly clear that NFLX has a fatally flawed business model (think of NFLX as Blockbuster 2.0 - because it really is), in an attempt to catch the falling Sword of Damocles.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:23 | 1813203 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

I don't know if their current value is fair value, I wouldn't buy it yet but NFLX doesn't have a fatally flawed business model, its stock just got way ahead of itself.  Sure people can find movies online for free but people will be willing to pay to have the ability to find movies in one place that can be streamed easily.  To say the company is worthless doesn't make sense, they were certainly overvalued.  

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:32 | 1813243 redpill
redpill's picture

DVDs will soon be an endangered species, and streaming content makes NFLX little more than an unnecessary middleman.  They don't own the content, they don't own the infrastructure, they don't own the presentation medium.  At some point they will be cut out of the picture entirely.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:42 | 1813291 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

not so sure about the "soon" part, as regards to the demise of DVDs. think of other legacy media that has lingered in the past......

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:49 | 1813312 redpill
redpill's picture

When was the last time you bought a music CD?

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:41 | 1813267 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I don't know if their current value is fair value, I wouldn't buy it yet but NFLX doesn't have a fatally flawed business model, its stock just got way ahead of itself.  Sure people can find movies online for free but people will be willing to pay to have the ability to find movies in one place that can be streamed easily.  To say the company is worthless doesn't make sense, they were certainly overvalued. 

 

 

Let's see:

1) Zero or the equivalent of business/enterprise real near zero cost (in the modern business era) barrier to entry.

Check

2) Lack of any significant intellectual property of a proprietary nature that forces consumers to use its service rather than current, or more importantly, emerging competitors (many of whom are far more well capitalized - think Amazon, Google, etc).

Check

3) Lacks any moat to not only prevent well capitalized competitors from stealing customers and compressing its margins (via price wars), but faces competition from alternative services essentially providing the same end user experience.

Check

4) Lacks ownership of the infrastructure upon which its core revenue generating activity depends on.

Check

5) Competes in a space that is likely to see the rapid onset of new technologies that bring better economies of scale and efficiencies to the playing field, as well as improvements to the quality of the product, which will not be benefits that accrue to it (see lack of proprietary technology and lack of ownership of 'infrastructure,' to allow it to build a moat to fix the aforementioned 'issues.'

Check

 

And as a bonus:

6) Faces hostile rebellion from former co-partners who see it as a threat to their own business model (ala Starz disaster).

Check

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:28 | 1813220 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I agree with you.  I do not think that NFLX is a buy here.  Just the fact that they are splitting the two business's I see as a problem.

I think the reason they are spliting the Businesses is so if necessary they could Bankrupt one of them.  I am thinking about the streaming business with all of the overhead costs.  Or the other option would be they could sell one of them and keep the other.  But I see this split as a real problem. 

I would have shorted them after that announcement but was tied up in another stock.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:57 | 1813115 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

 1/2 the game is having a waspy, dumb name.

 

  the other 1/2 is getting others with waspy dumb names to give you their inheritance to invest.

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:03 | 1813132 jcaz
jcaz's picture

LOL-  you just outed 90% of the hedge fund business....

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:11 | 1813156 i love cholas
i love cholas's picture

changed my last name to tennenbaum and my client list is through the roof!

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:13 | 1813165 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

the absolute return blue bloods will be tracking you thru the FED's Social Networking Data Mining Program.. so that they can...

LOL!!

These idiots don't care about the money they didn't earn or themselves enough to be a threat to anyone other than themselves!

Why would they care about anything else? other than spending a life time trying to milk someone else's hard works and fore thought!

The 6% (then 5% then 4% and now the sub 1%) Crowd has always been the best pigs to slaughter, why is it that they, in their purposeful ignorance are as well the most surprised when the losses mount?

These people (broadly) don't care enough about themselves to be engaged in their own lives.. so how could one reasonably expect them to care about someone else or anything else for that matter?

Blissfully Ignorant, Purposefully Disconnected and ready to be Milked (wholesale) by the Hungry, Greedy Nuevo Riche'!

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:19 | 1813188 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Goldman Sachs has to make payments into Lower Income Banks.. and becuase of the $10 Billion that Goldman Sachs took from the Government.. the requirement needs to be met!

Goldman then uses the money that they are required by LAW to pass out.. as a carrot.

the video is soooooooo worth the watch!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNif3r8sOO4&feature=relmfu

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Wed, 10/26/2011 - 13:38 | 1813275 Boston
Boston's picture

And going to Harvard.  He happens to be Ackman's classmate and buddy.  Coincidence?

Wed, 10/26/2011 - 12:57 | 1813117 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

whitney is the buffett replacement for cnbc

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