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Presenting For Your Correlation Consideration: THE Transfer Payment

Tyler Durden's picture


We know correlation is not causation, but... Black line is student loan debt; Orange line is AAPL total cash. 2+2 just may ≠ 5 in this case.


Chart: Bloomberg


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Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:44 | 2374135 mayhem_korner
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Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:45 | 2374140 jcia
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but but but but but... it's SHINY

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:47 | 2374151 slaughterer
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Topeka Capital's Brian White, who made waves by setting a $1,001 PT on Apple (AAPL +9%) 3 weeks ago, is raising it to $1,111 following the company's FQ2 beat

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:51 | 2374180 SheepDog-One
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Well good for him, I'm sure he's all-in Apple fully margined.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:56 | 2374212 slaughterer
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SD-1: don't you see, AAPL is #1 four times in a row.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:01 | 2374239 Buckaroo Banzai
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Well, at least Apple customers get something of value for their purchase.

BTW, it's "hoard" not "horde".

Although the the vision of a "horde" of Apple dollars sweeping across the Asian steppes is a funny one.

Mongol General: Hao! Dai ye! We won again! This is good, but what is best in life?
Mongol: The open steppe, fleet horse, falcons at your wrist, and the wind in your hair.
Mongol General: Wrong! Conan! What is best in life?
Conan: To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.
Mongol General: That is good! That is good.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:04 | 2374262 Arthor Bearing
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My only regret is having but +1 to give

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:08 | 2374285's picture


Wed, 04/25/2012 - 15:24 | 2374627 Thomas
Thomas's picture

The techical term is "I-Whored"

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:08 | 2374283 SheepDog-One
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And ding dong Bill Gates is dead, The Guru is gone. 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:18 | 2374337 derek_vineyard
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Steve jobs.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:52 | 2374185 Arthor Bearing
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Step 1: Pump.
Step 2: ?????

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:55 | 2374205 slaughterer
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Step 2: repeat Step 1.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:03 | 2374249 Arthor Bearing
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I have a hunch that if a professional trader is predicting the world's most overbought stock is going to double in price, he's looking for somebody to pick up his shares so he can cash in

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:07 | 2374278 CvlDobd
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Same as it ever was.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:23 | 2374373 derek_vineyard
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I saw my first crack in the apple armour when 2 (yes two) different 20 somethings told me that wanted a droid and apple was over priced and hyped-----this was last week.   Apple and facebook are now too trendy to be trendy anymore.  On to a new trend here in USA.  Foriegn countries lag behind us as new trends are set.


Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:33 | 2374425 crawldaddy
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yep,  hard to be cool and trendy as a young adult if your freakin mom has the same thing you do.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:45 | 2374489 CvlDobd
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All the dipshits I know that play WOW think they are cool and they use droids.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 16:56 | 2374898 trebuchet
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droid      ...............................   cooool

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 19:11 | 2375210 koperniuk666
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Surely Performance and Price are more important - or am I just being stupid???

The last mac I bought (a G4 in 2005) was  3 times the price of a crappy PC. And I was happy

The most recent mac I bought (a Pro) is disappointlngly ..... crappy. I will not be buying another one. 

Dont ALL products have life cycles?????

I mean, do you remember when 'North Face" was a QUALITY brand???????


Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:37 | 2374449 Chaffinch
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Are you sure Brian White is human? These price targets look awfully like binary code to me... ; )

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 20:54 | 2375330 Acorn10012
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iOwe,'s off to debtor prison we go.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:45 | 2374137 cougar_w
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Chart porn for the _________ crowd

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:48 | 2374165 Arthor Bearing
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for the anti-yuppy finance crowd?

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 15:10 | 2374552 TheGardener
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Chart porn indeed it is; two different right hand scales adjusted for one chart curve correlation

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:48 | 2374139 vast-dom
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yes of course!


so it then follows that AAPL bites the dust when the student loan bubble blows.....ah but timing is central obsession and i've been ocd'ing on SP at 800 for over 9months...


(as a student i actually did go into debt for a macbook pro once....)

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:50 | 2374178 Arthor Bearing
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I'm sure it's common, thus the chart. I'm sure you could put many lines that look like that from that same time period together. How about gold price? What would the causation be between AAPL, student loans, and gold?

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:05 | 2374255 vast-dom
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hey man i could make causation between charts and piles of iShit and squiggly heberphrenic scrawl from the insane asylum! and then i could provide some impenetrable ironclad algos and formulas.

iFuckingiNsaneiMotherfuckingPods as function of iFuckYouUpwiTiCharts.


Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:47 | 2374146 Temporalist
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That chart just shows that we need more students.  This message was approved by Barack Obama.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:48 | 2374160 SheepDog-One
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Time to fill the college classrooms with every EBT card holder out there...Kenyanomics, bitchez!

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:22 | 2374366 Nobody For President
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Actually SD, you're right, maybe not in the sarcastic way you thought = it is a lot cheaper than puttin' em in jail:

In CA, cost per inmate per year = $47K

Cost per student (including living costs) = $22 K (Community college living on campus) to $45K (Private college living off-campus)

Amusing, eh?

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:02 | 2374247 GubbermintWorker
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And he said that he and his wife just recently paid their student debt off? Doesn't that scream that "something" is wrong here!?!?!

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:47 | 2374149 SheepDog-One
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2+2 may question 5? 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:50 | 2374177 Dr. Richard Head
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Reminds me of the old ZH captchas.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:53 | 2374191 SheepDog-One
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LOL I do remember those...-250x-275= (answer must be shorter than 1 character)....WHAT?

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:06 | 2374268 cougar_w
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You will have to admit though, the captcha practice did serve to prepare us all for the running test of absurdity that became BLS data.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:53 | 2374196 cougar_w
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I swear, the articles were better back then, too.

Not saying anything about correlation and causation and all that. Though it seems fashionable these days to imply such things.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:13 | 2374301 Dr. Richard Head
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Correlation and causation for lack of trolls could be deduced.  At least the trolls back then were inteliigent....mhhhmmmmm....MillionDollarBOnus.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:47 | 2374152 kridkrid
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You could throw the chinese factory worker suicide rate over that as well.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:48 | 2374156 vast-dom
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someone's gotta pay.


and it's not personal.....

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:45 | 2374153 kevinearick
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So, the Bataan Death March through stupidity continues...the Fed battles volatility behind the margin, while pumping the margin, racing to avoid transparency...

Apple is the empire bet, assuming the path through which it must betting on the Dallas Cowboys... America's Team right? How's that $2B stadium working out? Great if you're San Francisco, or a league owner.

Load the kids down with debt and hope you catch 1 in a thousand with some kind of intelligence to turn over...of course you must control everything to make it work. They call it noise.

In the meantime, how's the family, and business? Are you getting enough sleep?

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:48 | 2374161 zhtidbits
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Nice chart, but 60% of revenue comes from overseas.  Agree with the long term non-sustainability of their competitive advantage, but the peak could be tomorrow or 3 years from now.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:49 | 2374168 TideFighter
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I called the rental equipment place to rent Al Gore's cherry picker, we're gonna need it. 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:52 | 2374179 Dr. Richard Head
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It's right over there by the lock box and the internet.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:09 | 2374289 NotApplicable
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Which are behind that rather large pile of carbon credits.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:51 | 2374171 hedgeless_horseman
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It is a wonder how my wife, children, and I can live so well without student loans and iPhones.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:49 | 2374173 Temporalist
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It's all good.  Housing is bottoming:

Housing Declared Bottoming in U.S. After Six-Year Slump

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:54 | 2374197 TideFighter
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Brilliant piece of work. "Bottoming (seeking a bottom)" vs. "Bottomed"

sarc off 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:10 | 2374297 SheepDog-One
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OH right, housing itself declaring its bottoming! Well its been either recovering or bottoming for 4 years now so I guess someday it will actually bottom. Of course that doesnt mean it heads right back up either....the Titanic also bottomed.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:51 | 2374181 cnhedge
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An update on TARGET2

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:52 | 2374190 Bam_Man
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At least the debt-burdened students have an iPad or iMac to go with their worthless degrees.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 15:58 | 2374725 e_goldstein
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Not that it will do them much good. The newest version of OS(u)X is twitchier than an epileptic and buggier than a Columbian whore's snatch. 

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 21:02 | 2375345 Acorn10012
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Previously employed by the SS?????

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:53 | 2374198 q99x2
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Student loan graph doesn't include Grants does it? I've been fixin to ride the free Pell on my rounds.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:54 | 2374201 CvlDobd
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Are you fucking kiddin me? Every business professional I know is tripping over themselves to buy iPads. It isn't just broke people buying this shit!


Apple could pull a James Cameron, do nothing for 10 years. Live off the cash from their last great idea, let the stock stagnate even, then introduce the next world beating idea, and kick the AAPL bears asses all over again!

Of all the shit out there to pick on I can think of nothing more stupid than AAPL. Until I see evidence of accounting fraud at AAPL the bearish fundamental story is bunk!

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:58 | 2374225 tarsubil
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James Cameron?

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:04 | 2374258 CvlDobd
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James F. for Fucking Cameron

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:02 | 2374244 CryingBear
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the next world beating idea will never come from aapl again, jobs is gone.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:06 | 2374266 CvlDobd
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I can appreciate that argument but as of yet I see no evidence of it having affect.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:24 | 2374385 crawldaddy
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why would you, they are still peddling his stuff, we will see whether the pipeline dries up or not.  What happened to apple the last time he left?  umm yeah, it collapsed.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:49 | 2374509 CvlDobd
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As I said, I can appreciate the argument.

Especially considering Henry Ford, JP Morgan, Charles Ranlett Flint, and Ronald McDonald all went tits up and their companies soon went bankrupt.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 19:35 | 2375243 Bollixed
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Yea baby, it's hard to refute the old Ronald McDonald argument...

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 21:05 | 2375353 Acorn10012
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Mayor McCheese was the brains behind the operations...and he's still kicking.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 21:05 | 2375354 crawldaddy
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good god man, the clown died,  why wasnt I notified?  Is Mayor McCheese still alive?

Thu, 04/26/2012 - 00:26 | 2375634 CvlDobd
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They all died!


Corporate McDeath Burger Ronald McDonald!  Google it.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:38 | 2374456 Nobody For President
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If the Iphone was a 'world beating idea', then I say good riddance to more such.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:05 | 2374260 SheepDog-One
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Um, Bill Gates 'The Guru' is dead. That will be reflected in reality shortly.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:29 | 2374410 The Swedish Chef
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Breaking news! Bill Gates is dead!

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:07 | 2374276 Temporalist
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It's not about the company it's about the culture that is pumping it.  It represents a bubble while it may not be a total bubble in and of itself.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:16 | 2374327 The Swedish Chef
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Save your breath. Unless you're here to watch the world burn, get your gold bug bias confirmed and say "bitchez" a lot you're just gonna get junked in to oblivion.

Don't ever say anything positive about any equities. Less than 0,001% ZH readers own any stock or does any investing at all apart from stacking PMs. Nothing wrong with stacking, just that occasionally it would be nice if actual traders/investors took part in the discussions.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:29 | 2374409 crawldaddy
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investor?  who the hell would be an investor and deal with equities?   Lets see, buy and hold over the last decade would of brought you exactly what on the broad market?   umm that would be a return of NOTHING,  negative returns if taken inflation into account.


Investing and equities in the same breath, you sir are a comedian.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:33 | 2374429 The Swedish Chef
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Buy and hold, now the only strategy availble. Who are you, the inverted Warrant Buffet?

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:41 | 2374472 crawldaddy
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buy and hold is what "investing" is about.  Now if you want to talk trading thats a different animal not to be confused with investing as it has more in common with gambling.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 17:39 | 2374991 The Swedish Chef
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Thats why I deliberately left that door open with "traders/investors".


Wed, 04/25/2012 - 22:47 | 2375475 Maxter
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I am not wich business professional you are talking about, but the ones I know are not touching it because of security issues (namely the fact that they can spy on your device

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:54 | 2374203 LouisDega
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Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:57 | 2374216 tarsubil
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I only took out one college loan and I used it to buy a used car. I believe this single episode shows how stupid student loans are.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:57 | 2374217 BLACK_DOG
BLACK_DOG's picture

iOwe, iOwe, but off to school I go.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 13:57 | 2374218 simpleminds
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I went to college, but all I have to show for it is a worthless piece of paper, 2 ipads, a imac, 4 iphones, and 100,000 itunes....yeah!

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:00 | 2374232 sbenard
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LOL! That's hilarious! I'm glad to know Tyler has a sense of humor after all that is going on! Thank you, Tyler!

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:00 | 2374236 sangell
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You know Jerry Brown is lying awake at night trying to figure out how to get his hands on AAPL's cash horde.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:01 | 2374242 GeneMarchbanks
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Put this up Durden:


Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:09 | 2374286 Paul Atreides
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Weird facial features....looks like he spent his whole childhood sucking the inside of a cup.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:04 | 2374257 kralizec
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Heh, good one TD.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:04 | 2374259 CryingBear
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i went to college a couple years ago. every student had an ipod then an iphone. well 8/10 at least. its a neccesity for college students.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:05 | 2374264 CryingBear
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i actually put all my money into AAPL because of this.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:07 | 2374272 CryingBear
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i think visiting your local college and observing the students for a week would make you a ton of more money than watching CNBC or reading ZH

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:06 | 2374267 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Makes sense.

Students get into debt, take on huge loans, go and buy shiny things.

I think we have too many women going to college, what would apple do without all those bimbos buying shiny junk with a cutsy apple logo glued to it? ;p

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:21 | 2374356 CryingBear
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What are you talking about. The males in college were the first to own iphones. chicks didnt like it at all when the iphone first came out.  i wanted to buy my gf a iphone instead of a ipod for her birthday but she didnt want something so "big" and "complicated". the chicks finally gave in after a few of their friends "gossiped" about how good it was.

I think its all downhill from here for AAPL. Alot of people i know who were the first to get iphones and ipads changed to the galaxy note this year because it was big enough to use as a tablet and small enough to use as a phone. something jobs was very afraid of since it would eat into both of his products. a tablet/laptop wont work until way later but a phone/tablet will work very soon.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:26 | 2374395 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

plus windows 8 will make all types of tablets out there actually more than just social networking toys.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:47 | 2374501 Uncle Remus
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Care to expand on that a little? Windows 8 is essentially an adaptation of the WinPho 7.x interface to the PC OS. WinPho 7.x was designed to be a social networking toy and is crippled by a dearth of business grade applications and utilities. I use an Android phone because it has tools I use in my profession - IT. I don't do social networking at all.

Sans a touch-screen, Windows 8 (preview) is a real PITA to navigate with. I haven't even d/led the server incarnation.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 21:11 | 2375359 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

whats to expand on? windows OS is a real OS, not some toy. I can write and produce .net, java, c++,, Its the backbone of the entire business world.  Windows runs 92% of the world business.  Windows 8 is just more tablet friendly in interfaces and so forth.  An ipad is a toy. A windows 8 tablet can be a toy or serious work station.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:06 | 2374269 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

makes a helluva lot of sense. Go to school and buy an Apple MAC, an Apple ipod, and Apple iphone to call home and ask for money..

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:20 | 2374350 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

hell, if a kid working at McD has an iphone ...

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:30 | 2374413 SimpleandConfused
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ZH is just grinding me down.  Who is disconnected from reality?  Every day ZH details all the reaaons the ponzi will collapse; every day the markets just grind higher, higher, higher........

I think the central planners have won: game, set and match.  I wish things were on the up and up, fair and understandable but the reality is the feds own the currency so there is no way this market is going down to any significant degree.  Might pull back a few percent here and there but overall, as long as there is ZIRP (and it appears that will be in perpituity) this market will simple grind higher, and higher and higher......

Hats off to Dr. Bernanke.  He has won where others have lost.  And ZH?  Your meme has failed.  There will be no collapse but a grinding 2% gdp over and over and over as the unemployed sheeple wander about in a daze, unable to understand what happened and unwilling to do anything to effect a change.

You have had a great run and have educated millions, but the reality is just what it is: Stick a fork in it ZH; it is done.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:39 | 2374455 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

you keep telling yourself that, THE only reason I exist is because ZH isnt wrong.  My grandparents fled Germany before they met seperately because of hyper inflation. They met over here in the US, they met, they got married and down the road I exist BECAUSE hyper inflation is a real thing and does happen even to modern, educated societies.


Your problem is your part of this commerical break generation, just because it hasnt happened in the time span of a few commercial breaks you dont think its going to happen. Default, war, and/or hyper inflation is the ONLY endgame coming. When does it come, who knows, I sure the hell dont mind waiting cause it wil suck.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 15:47 | 2374688 SimpleandConfused
SimpleandConfused's picture

I appreciate the perspective and agree that in a few billion years or so the earth is literal toast.

But the markets?  Not in our lifetimes and by the way, I have been following ZH for three years and so far, no collapse.  Hardly the time frame of a commercial break.

My point is that I agree with Farber's sentiment he spoke today; buy anything that cannot be replicated as is paper and that includes equities.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 21:13 | 2375361 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

so you werent alive in 2008?  

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:40 | 2374462 PeterLemonJello
PeterLemonJello's picture

Really?  You didn't think that the status quo would pull out every possible idea to keep it going?  It's inevitable....only time will pull back the curtain on the magician.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:42 | 2374471 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

No, the Tylers are absolutely correct, you just need to adjust your timeframe. Collapse will come, don't ya worry.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 15:08 | 2374566 besnook
besnook's picture

watched a great interview with marc faber the other day(sorry, don't have the link). he explained very simply that the reason he lives in northern thailand is that he fears total economic collapse simply based upon the concept that all markets collapse and globalization has set up the impending world wide failure of this market due within the next ten years and as soon as a coupla years. he said the goal is asset protection and only losing 50% of net worth may be a winner. the usual stuff.

one bit he revealed was the reason he lived in rural northern thailand. he said the urban areas were not the place to live in a collapse in general but if the world economy collapses the best place to live was where living is least affected.  paraphrasing his words he said, "what do a bunch of third world rural farmers care about derivatives blowing up the world economy? they are not affected."

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 16:10 | 2374761 css1971
css1971's picture

Oh wow. You know it's going to be 20 years right? We`re talking the collapse of civilisation here, the end of the American Empire. It doesn't happen overnight.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 16:47 | 2374875 Doomer
Doomer's picture

Sounds like somebody was short today.


Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:38 | 2374453 TooRichtoCare
TooRichtoCare's picture

We're all just lying in pods with our juices being sucked up by the Matrix. None of this is real. Don't try to wake up, it's all just too scary.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:42 | 2374463 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Another example of how all subsidies rise to the top.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:42 | 2374474 adr
adr's picture

Students have to buy an iPhone and an iPad. Since all the "intelligent" professors have them, being seen with a Droid could be grounds for failure.

"But I got every answer right?"

"Yes the answers were right but your method was wrong. I only accept answers in iFormat."

Oh the horror when I was in college and gave Adobe files to my professor in IBM format.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:48 | 2374505 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I know some teachers that still use AOL.  Even knew some that still paid for it until not long ago.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:46 | 2374495 DOT
DOT's picture

iEBT,  iEBT  buys me all the crap I need.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 14:59 | 2374536 BORT
BORT's picture

Here is my perspective, for what it is worth

The student debt started going up in 2008 and 2009 because the parents college funds got trashed and the only way to go was to have the kid go into debt.  Those kids are just now starting to graduate this quarter.  They will then face the task of starting to pay off that loan.  The spare cash is going to be gone, and jobs will not pay what they thought.  just saw a BS degree with 5 years experience being offered at $18 /hr.  Household formation is way down, as is the ability to purchase homes.  For profit schools, who graduate more in the two year time frame are starting to see enrollment decline.  Kids are beginning to understand that they paid to go to this depressions CCC camp.  Thanks Mom and Dad and Boomers.  I understand that Apple is also selling more in China.  Great, but how does that help anything in the US?  Why woud it influence the Rut 2000.  This sham Apple economy is so concentrated and laughable.  It is going to crater, and we will be in worse shape.  Wait until someone tells GM to stop building inventory

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 15:15 | 2374599 Centurion9.41
Centurion9.41's picture

Please, the chart is utter BS. 

Compare both on a % or log basis and watch what happens...

For those of you out there who dropped out of "math" because you wouldn't need it.  It is a VERY COMMON ploy of Wall Street and those who make a living off of commentating on Wall Street to increase/decrease the interval of two different vertical scales to make two charts look very similar. 

There's probably a dozens of companies one could do the very same thing with; for example CMG.

When you see charts like this paraded out, that's your chance to learn a LOT about the true motives &/or intelligence of the one making the assertion.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 16:53 | 2374890 Doomer
Doomer's picture

Relax, Einstein.  No doubt there would be fewer iPhones around without all the .gov money proping up the Ponzi.

Wed, 04/25/2012 - 15:25 | 2374629 Jena
Jena's picture

Clearly, AAPL will be tasked to pay off all student loan debt.  Under the Obama redistribution plan, they don't "need" all that cash.

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