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A Preview Of Monday Morning In Europe

Tyler Durden's picture





 

While most will be following what appears to be an almost certain Hollande victory in the French presidential runoff elections tomorrow (InTrade odds around 10%), it is very likely that the Greek election will have a greater acute impact on the political and financial facade of Europe, especially in the short term. As we noted in what we dubbed our first (of many) Greek election previews, the biggest problem facing the new political regime will be its near certain inability to form a coalition government (with just 32.6% of the vote going to PASOK and New Democracy)  that does not undo most of what has been achieved through popular sweat and tears over the past 2 years to assist Europe's bankers in transferring what little Greek wealth remains to fund the insolvent European bank balance sheets. This in turn could begin the latest cascading contagion waterfall, which coupled with an anti-austerity drive emanating from a newly socialist France will threaten to topple Angela Merkel's carefully constructed European hegemony.

As Reuters explains: "If the two parties fail to win a big enough majority to go into a coalition, they will have to woo groups opposed to the bailout, raising fears that Greece will renege on its promises to international lenders and head down a path towards bankruptcy and an exit from the euro, with dire contagion risks for other crisis hit EU states like Spain and Italy. A record 8-10 parties could enter parliament and four small groups are vying to become kingmakers after the poll." And the reason why we believe many more elections are coming is that "New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras is expected to win about 25 percent of the vote but insists he wants to rule alone. Analysts say that if he comes close to the numbers he needs he may be tempted to push for another snap election." And so on, allowing Greece to slowly enter a period of political vacuum. Yet unlike Belgium, it is unlikely that Greece can persist under anarchy, especially with another critical event coming due: a €430 million payment on an international law bond that matures on May 15, and whose owners have held out from the PSI process (remember that? apparently not all has been swept under the rug). In fact we now know that the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund could very well be the entity that will demand payment and when it doesn't get it will promptly proceed to sue Greece.

As a reminder, here is what the Greek political landscape looks like currently (much more here):

As Credit Suisse explained earlier this week, this is the procedure:

The election result will be known late at night on Sunday 6 May. Following that, if no party has the majority of the votes (which is the most likely scenario), the president will ask the leader of the first party in votes to try to form a government (e.g. through a coalition) that enjoys the confidence of the parliament. If this fails or the party withdraws from its right, then the second party is asked to do the same and so on. The process is repeated for the three largest parties and each one has a three-day deadline. If these attempts fail, the president calls the parliamentary leaders of the parties on a last attempt to form a broad coalition government. If that is also unsuccessful an interim government is formed that would lead the country to a new election within a month.

Alas, the bolded section is what we fear will happen again... and again... and again. If that is indeed the case, a downside scenario emerges:

What if Greece does not deliver? We think that there is a clear risk that the IMF simply refuses to make the next payment. In that case it is probable that the EU would follow suit. However, it is unlikely in our view that payments would stop altogether; rather, they might be postponed until Greece fulfills its obligations

And since the biggest losers from the gray swan outcome would be the firm that has expended substantial resources to preserve the European status quo, up to and including allegedly presenting its own alumni Carney and O'Neill to head the Bank of England, below we present how Goldman views the series of events that lead to a less than disastrous outcome. Because if things indeed unravel, the ultimate casualty will be none other than the Euro, the EMU, and from there, a tsunami contagion wave spreading to the US and farther.

The Challenge for The Next Government

 

From the first week in office, the next government will face significant challenges. First off, a decision will need to be made for the Greek international-law bond maturing on the 15th of May the owners of which have held out from the PSI process. The outstanding notional is not large (about EUR430mn) but the broader implications of a no-payment decision are unknown, while the political backlash from a payment may be large.

 

Second, by June, budget cuts worth about 11.5bn EUR for the rest of the program period will need to be specified. There is little room left in the budget to promote such an adjustment without affecting public sector wages and pensions.

 

Third, pressure from international lenders will likely shift on product market reforms going forward. This implies a focus on privatizations, opening up closed professions, reducing barriers to entry for new enterprises, reducing assured profit margins for various sectors etc. Previous governments have been unsuccessful in clashing with organized professional pressure groups and creating a true competitive market for goods and services. Thus the reduction in wages has not been followed by negative trends in market prices as well.

 

Fourth and final, the recapitalization of the banking system in a format that makes it easy for banks to attract private capital in the future is a key element of the recovery process.

 

Whether the dispersion of the EUR130bn rescue package continues depends on the new government’s actions, decisions and choices on the issues above. Greece needs the dispersion of funds in order to clear out arrears, avoid cash shortages, and build buffers for additional banking sector recapitalizations in the months to come.

 

Near Term Election Uncertainty is Probably Overstated

 

Given the pressing issues at hand for the next government and the downside that lack of policy action could entail, we are inclined to think that the political incentives are aligned towards the formation of some kind of government following the election on Sunday.

 

As we discussed in our latest note on the subject, despite the low polling rates of the two major parties, PASOK and New Democracy (ND), the electoral law provisions make it likely that they are able to form some type of coalition government on Monday. And even in the extreme event that they don’t, there are other small moderate parties who favor stability and government continuity who could be brought in to form an interim government.

 

What is more important to focus on is the balance of power within the next governing coalition, the number of seats it commands in the parliament as well as its composition. These factors would determine the room for the next government to be truly functional, its lifespan and its desire to proactively introduce crucial market friendly reforms.

 

How to Think of The Day After

 

Without diminishing the probability that an extreme and unexpected outcome occurs, we would focus on what we consider the most likely outcome, as discussed earlier. And based on this, we discuss the criteria to judge the result on Sunday.

  1. Parliamentary majority for the government. A wider parliamentary majority would allow any coalition government to legislate on the difficult issues at hand more freely. It would thus be best for the government to be backed by parties amassing more than 45% of the vote in total (whether this is just PASOK and ND or whether it also includes a third party).
  2. Parliament composition. A smaller presence of radical parties at the extremes of the spectrum and potential parliamentary representation by the two small liberal parties (called Democratic Alliance and “Action” respectively) would likely help improve the intra-parliamentary debate and provide checks and balances of higher quality and applicability for the next government.
  3. Government composition. The parties who will form the next government will need to agree on who becomes prime minister and which individuals staff the key ministries. The more skewed the composition of the government towards one party, the less the likely time horizon that the current government survives.
  4. Mandate. The individuals selected for the key ministries will be a good leading indicator on the success of the government towards meeting its targets. In order to achieve the demanding tasks at hand, it would be best for reform oriented and proactive individuals to take office in key ministries such as the ministry of labor, the ministry of health, the ministry of public transport, the ministry of finance etc

Finally, the biggest wildcard in all of this is Germany's Angela Merkel who stands to suffer a tripple whammy as soon as tomorrow. From Spiegel:

Angela Merkel's position as German chancellor is becoming increasingly contradictory. At the federal level, she reigns unchallenged, while her opponents falter. But at the level of Germany's individual states, her power is crumbling and her center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is bracing itself for further setbacks. At the European level, meanwhile, she has become a figure of hate for many, as her pet project, the fiscal pact, is increasingly called into question.

 

It seems that the German chancellor is currently inhabiting three different worlds.

 

But this weekend, those three worlds will converge, as people both in Germany and abroad go to the polls in three key elections which all take place on Sunday. In the northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein, the CDU's current coalition government with the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) is set to crumble, while in France, Merkel's key euro-zone ally Nicolas Sarkozy has cause to fear for his own hold on power in the second round of the French presidential election. At the same time, Greece threatens to descend into instability following its parliamentary elections. It seems likely that Merkel's worlds will no longer remain so neatly divided after this election "super Sunday." Even the staunchest of supporters sense the chancellor may be facing a turning point.

Oh yes, Germany has elections too:

Supposedly minor elections such as the one in Schleswig-Holstein have suddenly become important. Polls in the state put the CDU and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) neck and neck, while the FDP, Merkel's coalition partner in the national government, will struggle at the state level to clear the 5 percent hurdle required in order to take seats in parliament.

 

But things could still turn out well here for Merkel. If the CDU comes out ahead and the FDP manages to stay in the state parliament, it won't cause much of a shake-up in Berlin. But if the FDP loses its seats in the state parliament, the chancellor may feel the effects at the federal level. And things will get rough inside the FDP as well. The FDP's lead candidate in Schleswig-Holstein, Wolfgang Kubicki, has a reputation for firing broadsides at the party leadership in Berlin, whose recent haplessness has cost the FDP support across the country. If the state election result is disappointing, Kubicki is likely to make his displeasure felt.

 

The CDU is also potentially facing a highly symbolic loss. At the moment, the party still heads up the government in one state more than its main rival, the SPD, governing eight federal states to the SPD's seven. But if things go badly in Schleswig-Holstein, then the CDU, which seems to have held this lead more or less forever, will suddenly find itself at a disadvantage.

 

With one and a half years to go until the country's next national elections -- and just a week until a crunch election in Germany's most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia -- Merkel's opponents would do their best to exploit the shift in the balance of power, something that the CDU's strategists know all too well.

For now, like most, Merkel is primarily focused on Hollande:

the chancellor's camp is showing a cautious optimism. Merkel's supporters admit that a Socialist victory in France could certainly make things more difficult for them. They also expect that Hollande will remain in feisty campaign mode even beyond this Sunday, since elections to France's National Assembly come just a few weeks later. In private, though, the CDU is hoping Hollande will be forced to adjust to reality quickly. Once he's at the negotiating table and having to make decisions, they say, Hollande will revise his view of the situation. And he'll soon feel the pressure of the markets, they add.

Translated: expect the bond and stock vigilantes to make themselves heard loud and clear in the days and weeks following Hollande's ascendancy in order to put him in his place. After all, as the past two years have proven, no politicians is stronger than the shock and awe of waking up to a trading statement that shows a 20% overnight loss.

Yet while the strength French capital market does likely mean that Hollande has too much to lose by going out on a limb and doing his own thing, it is Greece, where the the myth of wealth through capital markets has been destroyed and no longer matters, that enforcing the behavior of the grand coalition through "capital market controls" will be impossible. As such it is once again the smallest Eurozone economy that will be the biggest wildcard in tomorrow's election day, and likely biggest challenge in the future.

Not even a grand coalition between the center-left Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) and the conservative New Democracy would really allow Merkel to breathe a sigh of relief. Such an alliance is the most likely outcome, and also, relatively speaking, the most stabile option, given the current situation, but it would bring New Democracy's leader Antonis Samaras to the table in Brussels, possibly even as Greece's prime minister. Although Samaras, during the current election campaign, has pledged his commitment to the austerity measures that Athens agreed upon with the EU in return for financial aid, it worries other EU conservatives that he has taken precisely the opposite position at times in the past.

 

That erratic behavior poses a danger for Greece and the EU -- and for the German chancellor as well.

For too long have Europe's taxpayers bowed down to greater financial interests, entwined in the mythical welfare state (long since insolvent) symbiosis. It is truly only those who have already lost everything (for now the Greeks but soon many others) that are free to do anything. And that anything will soon mean beginning to take back that what has been legally stolen from them for the past two years. Will the Great European wealth transfer come to a halt tomorrow, and possibly reverse? We will know in less than 24 hours.

Finally, Monday is just the beginning of the May 6 European election juggernaut. Then the real fun begins as the following forward calendar from Deutsche Bank shows.

May

  • 6 May: Second round of the French presidential elections (see 22 April entry). The results of the 22 April first round suggest  that the Socialist candidate, Francois Hollande, is on course for victory.
  • 6 May: Greek general election. Polls close at 7pm local time, with exit polls released at the same time. Real-time results will start streaming approximately an hour later, and the first reliable country-wide estimate should be available around 10pm local time. If the results are a close call, the final outcome may not be known until the early hours of Monday. The last batch of polls was published on April 20th, ahead of the poll blackout period. These pointed to a picture that has remained remarkably consistent  throughout the last two months: a large number of undecideds (~20%), record-low support for the two traditional governmental parties (New Democracy and PASOK) and rising extremes on both the left and right. The ultimate result is sensitive to how the undecideds vote. Assuming a proportional allocation, New Democracy and PASOK should be able to secure a decent majority. Polls using a more sophisticated allocation technique point to an inability to form a government however. The bottom line is that the result is too close to call.
  • 6 May: German state election in Schleswig- Holstein. On recent opinion polls, the current conservative-liberal coalition will lose its majority despite the fact that the liberals will most likely exceed the 5% threshold to enter parliament again. A CDU/SPD grand coalition is a possible outcome. However, it is open which of the two parties will receive the most votes and subsequently appoint the leader of the grand coalition government.
  • 6 and 7 May: First round of Italian local elections (second round on 20 and 21 May). This will be a first test to see the degree  of electoral support to those parties backing Monti’s government – nine million people are called to the polls (about a fifth of Italy’s total electors). The relative performance of the Northern League and Berlusconi’s PDL could be an interesting insight.  The two parties, which formed the core of the previous government, were unable to prevent and control the sovereign crisis.  Since then the PDL decided to support Monti’s government, contributing to avoid early elections, which would likely have had disastrous consequences for Italy. On the contrary, the Northern League opted to further increase its populist message and  move to the opposition against Monti.
  • 7 May: Germany to debate ESM. Parliamentary public hearing on the ESM Treaty.
  • 8 May: Greece auction. Bills.
  • 8 May: EFSF auction. Bills.
  • 11 May: European Commission to release spring economic forecasts.
  • 11 May: Italy auction. Bills.
  • 13 May: German state election in NRW. The vote in NRW can be seen as an important test of the electorate’s political mood. The polls indicate that the SPD (around 38%) and the Greens (about 12%) may win a stable majority. The CDU has support  levels at about 33% in the polls. NRW’s CDU party leader Norbert Röttgen may well achieve some 35% (roughly in line with national averages) but the Greens clearly have no preference for governing with him. Whether the liberals can clear the 5% hurdle remains to be seen. The election in NRW is the second-last state-level test before the national election in mid-
    September or October of 2013. In January 2013, state elections in Lower Saxony will expose the conservative-liberal camp to new risks (see German political update, Focus Europe, 23 March 2012).
  • 14 May: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 14 May: Italy auction. Bonds.
  • 14-15 May: Eurogroup and ECOFIN finance ministers meetings.
  • 15 May: Greece auction. Bills.
  • 15 May: Flash Estimate EU and euro area GDP. Eurostat to publish preliminary estimates for Q1 2012 GDP.
  • 17 May: Spain auction. Bonds.
  • 22 May: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 25 May: German parliament vote on Eurozone ‘Fiscal Compact’. The Fiscal Compact to strengthen budgetary discipline within the euro area will require a two-thirds majority in both the Bundestag and the Bundesrat, the upper house. Until now, cooperation between the coalition parties and the opposition has been smooth, underlining the pro-Europe sentiment. The SPD and the Greens are insisting on taxation of the financial sector and a growth package in return for their support. The latter fits into the broader debate on a European level, including modification of structural funds or even new financing  instruments such as project bonds. However, we do not feel this will pose a risk to the Fiscal Compact being approved as the opposition has no interest in sending such a signal to the EU. Most probably the compact’s approval will be linked to i) deciding on a growth pact by the end of the year and ii) agreeing on a roadmap for introducing additional taxation on the financial sector, or at least give the go-ahead for national solutions (see article on German politics in Focus Europe on 23 March).
  • 28 May: Italy auction. Bonds.
  • 29 May: Italy auction. Bills.
  • 31 May: Irish referendum on Euro zone ‘Fiscal Compact’. A recent opinion poll put the support for the Fiscal Compact at 47% (down 2pp), the No vote at 35% (up 2pp) and 19% Don’t Know. This equates to a 58%:42% Yes:No ratio when the undecided votes are excluded. The concern is the still high level of undecided voters. Although Ireland is making good progress through its EU-IMF adjustment programme — the sixth review was recently passed successfully — a ‘No’ to the referendum could compromise Ireland’s access to ESM funding should a second loan programme be required. Although a second referendum is a theoretical possibility (Ireland has a history of rejecting EU referenda before accepting), taking away the safety net could be a significant blow to Irish bonds.

June

  • 6 June: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by interest rate announcement and news conference.
  • 6 June: Portugal auction. Bills.
  • 7 June: Spain auction. Bonds.
  • 10 June: French legislative election (first round). Elections to entirely renew the deputies in the National Assembly (lower house of parliament). A risk is that the socialist party alone fails to secure an absolute majority and has to depend on the support of the radical left, which could push to try to transform what we hold for pure campaign rhetoric in actual legislation. However, it would be wrong to simply replicate Melanchon’s score in the first round of the presidential election into the number of deputies the radical left would secure, as the “personal factor” was important in Melanchon’s strong performance and as the “two  rounds” majority system of the parliamentary election should favour the socialists.
  • 12 June: Greece auction. Bills.
  • 13 June: Italy auction. Bills.
  • 14 June: Italy auction. Bonds
  • 17 June: French legislative election (second round) See 10 June entry
  • Mid-June: European Commission proposals on failed banks. The EC is due to present proposals for a bank crisis resolution scheme, potentially including plans for creditor writedowns, before the G20 leaders’ summit on 18-19 June. The proposals  being worked on have been reported not to directly involve the euro zone’s EFSF and ESM funds.
  • 18-19 June: G20 Leaders Summit, in Los Cabos, Mexico. Gathering of the leaders of the world’s twenty biggest economies. European Commission’s plan to resolve failed European banks among the issued to be discussed (see the entry above).
  • 19 June: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 19 June: Greece auction. Bills.
  • 21 June: Spain auction. Bonds.
  • 21-22 June: Eurogroup and ECOFIN finance ministers meetings.
  • 26 June: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 26 June: Italy auction. Bonds
  • 27 June: Italy auction. Bills.
  • 28 June: Italy auction. Bonds.
  • 28-29 June: European Council meeting. This is the meeting of the EU heads of state and government.
 


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Sat, 05/05/2012 - 17:52 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Hollande the EU and ECB shill will go back on all his promises, bet on it. More taxes on the middle-class in France are coming. A bigger EU, stronger EU is coming. All ur bases are belong to us, SLAVES!

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:17 | Link to Comment rajat_bhatia
rajat_bhatia's picture

Fuck Democracy! That is the culprit! Only the Bankers should rule for perpetuity!

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:22 | Link to Comment Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

If the world financial system is hanging by a thread called Greece, the system is a sand castle.

Brace for impact.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:52 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Baa, Greece cannot even pull Greece down..  Let  me know when there is no food to be had in Athens or better yet Nice..

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 19:27 | Link to Comment gangland
gangland's picture

eu hegemony in the shadow of us hegemony

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 20:20 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

This place has an uncanny resemblence to some sort of survivalists camp sometimes...

" If a check cashed in Greece, 25 euro's mind you, does not clear the ECB, Germany will abandon the Eu and Euro in favor of gold backed Deutschmarks, gold having been mined from under liberty plaza, leopards will be fueled immediately for the drive south to seize said check from Athens shortly therafter".

And a butterfly flapped its wings today in Brazil.  The complexity of the system is certainly a weak spot while simultaneoulsy being its great strength, not saying there is no fraud its obviously endemic, but the sytem is also resilient witness the last  five years.

Robotrader had one thing right other than staying in moms basement, that was play the PTB market moves until you cannot because nothing really monumental happens until the food runs out.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 22:32 | Link to Comment Arius
Arius's picture

Hip hip hooray

calm yourself - we need adults in the room ...

if i understood you correctly, chuck prince came up before robo with the phrase got to dance until your legs still could move ... or something like that ... lol...

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 09:10 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

 

Illustrating absurdity with absurdity is apparently beyond an astute adult such as yourself. Romper room is two doors down.  Arius was wrong by the way, no path to the father without the son...

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment Arius
Arius's picture

wow .... i do actually agree....

i liked the name before i heard of the story - thats all to it ....

btw, dont be so jumpy - stay true to your name

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 18:03 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

That name is so I remember to stay calm not because I advise others to stay so yeah your probably right :)

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 19:43 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Isn't shipping a big part of the Greek economy?

5 year BDI:

http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 20:36 | Link to Comment Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

Excuse me, but Greece has already defaulted.  Someone got screwed royally, but for whatever reason they're not making a stink about it.  The world turned as usual despite it.

I agree that the direction of events is towards calamity, but it seems it's going to be much slower than the hyperventilating around here would suggest.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 20:49 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Someone else gets it, the system is damn tough.  Right or wrong, good or bad it is tougher than chicken littles want us to think or perhaps we are just supposed to think that while they clean up..

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 07:09 | Link to Comment FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

"Someone got screwed royally, but for whatever reason they're not making a stink about it."

 

Because much of that risk got transferred to the U.S. taxpayer. The Fed can print in perpetuity to keep Europe afloat. AND WILL.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 15:17 | Link to Comment AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

...until it can't.  Then it won't.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:17 | Link to Comment sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

Even a fully-robust Hollande cannot stop the velocity of money, much less a glad-handing Hollande. The complexity of centralization is breaking down. They are not ready.  Eventually, the accumulation of socialized debt and graft will reach critical mass.  Whether the spark to the dry brush will be social, political or financial, who can say? 

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 19:08 | Link to Comment phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

For the love of God, lets get this train wreck over with... I'm simply tired of watching it unfold.

 

Fuck.... 

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 22:37 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

I noticed you spelled Gold wrong.

Otherwise I agree.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:44 | Link to Comment rotagen
rotagen's picture

Welcome to the 2012 Armaggedon Derby: Greasy zionist bankster elite and fukushima running neck and neck in the stretch.  I think I see some teetering on that wisely-placed 2nd story pool with 85 times Chernobyl's rads, but wait, Here comes a Goldman executive on the outside....

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

Have a look at the ECB Fear Indicator:  near record level

Banks deposited over 800  billion with the ECB

http://www.cds-info.com

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 20:36 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Oh Tyler! You've done it now...

~~~

Now some Bloomberg or CNBS hack (or worse, an 'algo') is going to read that... Interpret it as 'cash on the sidelines'... & the markets are going to soar on Monday...

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 02:27 | Link to Comment CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

None of this financial/electoral stuff matters anymore. The only thing that matters are the synapses firing in Netanyahu's brain. 90 days and counting.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 15:26 | Link to Comment AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

Its when the "financial stuff" leads to the "electoral stuff" that things get ugly.

Mob reactions give rise to electoral insanity, gives rise to totalitarian states.

Which is why you are right: Netanyahu or any other power-player making any sudden or extreme moves can be disaster.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 17:55 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Europe on Monday will test the newest Olympic sports of...

The bond throw and the margin call sprint.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:02 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

The first round of Molotov Cocktails is on me.................

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:30 | Link to Comment RacerX
RacerX's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHhrZgojY1Q

Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment l1b3rty
l1b3rty's picture

oh here comes the continentalists pushing past austerity!

http://silvervigilante.com

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 19:44 | Link to Comment smb12321
smb12321's picture

What's hilarious is the notion that those against austerity will institute "growth".  Who in their right mind thinks Europe's failing welfare states (rapidly depopulating as I write) will "grow" considering their bloated agencies, lack of capital and massive debt.  Hollande wants to "grow" by incurring yet more debt.  We all know how well spending trillions in the US has done and we're a thousand times more growth oriented than France.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:04 | Link to Comment vmromk
vmromk's picture

DOUCHEBAG Bernanke stands ready with more "swaps" to mask the Ponzi's collapse.

Hey FUCKHEAD Bernanke, all of your money printing WILL NOT, I repeat, WILL NOT stop the collapse, it is only buying you time to make the collapse that much greater a phenomenon to behold. 

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:00 | Link to Comment transaccountin
transaccountin's picture

Can Tyler or anyone else please post a calander for Italy and Spain bond auctions for the next few months? tHANK YOU

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:05 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:33 | Link to Comment CryingBear
CryingBear's picture

WOW, I LIKE THIS NEW TYLER. WAY HELPFUL. 

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 20:35 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

How about a calendar of printing and swaps which is the real activity behind these "auctions" and will keep them afloat with a combination of general naivety, ignorance and keep the system alive at all costs traders.  99% of you are better traders than me but I am apparently better at human behaviour.  Nothing changes until logistical systems fail.  Years of slow painful biflationary fade awaits.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 19:06 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

wonder who's buying all these up....what a sick joke at this stage.....i think i will introduce the ZH FU bomb bond.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 20:00 | Link to Comment Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

wonder who's buying all these up

Seriously?  Why it's the buyer(s) of first, last, and now only resort, the central banksters, of course. ....with magically conjured IOUs called currency (or their electronic equivalents).  Man, what a scam and a half.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 23:18 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

...and Benny with a slight of hand back door manuver...It's all Bullshit!

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 03:18 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yep.

U.S. hedge funds and invetstment houses buying up Euro debt like candy (a la MF Global).

When Spain or Italy or Portugal default and the U.S. buyers are caught with their pants down, the FED will bail them out; thereby propping Europe, the Euro, and their own hegemony at the expense of the "little people" who they will socialize the losses onto in the name of "stability".

Sick game, eth?

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 20:38 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

where are the agenda minutes that they block off to surf the internet for midget tranny porn?

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 09:29 | Link to Comment duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

Holy fucking cow. 5.5 TRILLION yen in a two week period.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 14:14 | Link to Comment Chief_Illiniwek
Chief_Illiniwek's picture

Is the 18th a scheduled maintenance day for the printing presses (50 trillion-cycle checkup)?  Or is it being left open just in case a "bank holiday" is needed?

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:26 | Link to Comment CryingBear
CryingBear's picture

I JUST LOOK AT SPAINS. TREASURIES ARE SOLD ON FIRST OR SECOND TUESDAY BUT I DONT REMEMBER WHICH ONE, THIS MAKES STOCK MARKETS GO UP BECAUSE ITS LESS THAN 3-YEARS. THE THIRD TUESDAY. SPAIN ISSUES 12-MONTH BONDS WHCH MAKES STOCK MARKETS GO UP. 

THE FIRST AND THIRD THURSDAY, SPAIN ISSUES BONDS > 3 YEARS WHICH MAKE STOCK MARKETS GO DOWN.

HOWEVER, YOU MUST PUT INTO OTHER FACTORS THAT WILL MOVE MARKETS, SUCH AS ECONOMIC DATA SUPRISES AND AAPL EARNINGS.

THANK YOU.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 15:32 | Link to Comment AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

Do you actually scream that all out loud as you type?

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:10 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble said that if Greece’s new government deviated from its commitments the country would have to “bear the consequences.”

 

Yup - says it all about sovereignty in the EU for these PIIGS. Embrace your German overlords or else.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 20:12 | Link to Comment Mary Wilbur
Mary Wilbur's picture

No doubt they're scared.

 

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:16 | Link to Comment djsmps
djsmps's picture

Am I reading this right? The US will be issuing more than $200 billion in debt in the next two weeks?

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:46 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The flight in panic from Europe will lend it.  That money is flowing into US Ts and London real estate.

We're at 1.88% on 10 year debt in the US and seriously I would not be even remotely surprised to see that number go negative, maybe to -0.25% within 18 months.

There is no growth.  There is fear.  That's where that scared money is going.  If you hold 10 year Ts, you have had a 23% gain since the day the US lost its AAA rating.  There is more gain to come.  The 0% point is not the end point.  

It's an insane world and that's the result.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:20 | Link to Comment phat ho
phat ho's picture

A-M-E-R-I-C-A........ F-U-K   Y-E-A............

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:39 | Link to Comment sunaJ
Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:23 | Link to Comment Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

The French solution to a failed socialist state is to elect a bigger socialist.

Wait till "sticker shock" sets in and they get the bill for who they elected.

The wealthy are already leaving.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:25 | Link to Comment Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

I am wondering were the wealthy are going.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:30 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Iceland

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:31 | Link to Comment CryingBear
CryingBear's picture

LOL, DONT YOU KNOW. THE RICH HAVE A SECRET PLACE THEY MOVE TO WHEN TAXES ARE RAISED. ITS LIKE YOU HAVE A SPOILED KID WHO THREATENS TO RUN AWAY.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 20:09 | Link to Comment Mary Wilbur
Mary Wilbur's picture

Wealthy Greeks moved to London. They brought their euros and bought real estate.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 20:39 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

 "I am wondering were the wealthy are going."

~~~

Not to jail (yet)... That's for sure...

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:25 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Like at the end of Animal House, "All is well!  All is well!!!!, as the masses run over authoritie.  Time to pull Madame Guillotine out of storage.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:43 | Link to Comment ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Forward.

Just 'shrug' it off?

How's that werkin out fer yah?

Instead of laughing at the idiots maybe you should read?

And think?

Is that a rhyme I sense?

Attempt to own it, fail, repeat.

If we do have a creator she/he must be getting quite bored.

Seriously people: this is ridiculous.

Fuck the parasites and let people be free.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 18:45 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yep, a few bullish weeks comming up as ordered.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 19:00 | Link to Comment I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Rich should move to Pakistan or Syria.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 19:05 | Link to Comment timbo_em
timbo_em's picture

"...it is very likely that the Greek presidential election will have a greater acute impact..."

 parliamentary election! The president is a rather ceremonial position.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 19:20 | Link to Comment iamsomeoneyouwi...
iamsomeoneyouwillneverknow's picture

More nonsense to keep the proles running in the wheel...

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 19:27 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And the latest bullshit from the US government :

Panetta: Climate change a national security threat

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/pa...

You know what that means right??? Agenda 21 all the way and whoever opposes it is putting the US at risk and is a military threat. The climate cops are coming.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

Hey everyone, look over there (ignore the markets' troubles), it's getting warmer...we need more power.  Oh, wait, now it's getting colder...we need more power....Oh wait, we were wrong; we need to undo what we messed up...we need more power.  Surrender your sovereignty, we are here to serve you.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 20:46 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Absolutely, follow the money it is what we are supposed to be good at until the subject of global warming comes up then its all save GAIA, kiss Uncle Al's ass, bullshit..  Scientists still cannot agree on gravity and its effects but a consensus believes in global warming.  If it does happen the way some way it will happen, TEOTAWKI I mean, mmm I would scrape that gw sticker of the Pious in your driveway with your toothbrush damn quick, just saying..

http://www.newscientist.com/special/seven-things-that-dont-make-sense-about-gravity

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 20:53 | Link to Comment Hohum
Hohum's picture

Calmyourself,

There is a consensus on gravity and on global warming.  We'll see if the consensus is wrong.  But some here just disagree with the consensus because it doesn't fit their ideology.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 21:03 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

You keep telling yourself that but Astrophysicists are now reconsidering whether gravity does in fact act the same throughout the universe as their observations do not fit.  By the way if computers could model the feedback forcing effects of the largest chaotic system on Earth (atmosphere)why not just turn your attention to the stock market, get super rich and move to high ground?  Because you cannot model any chaotic system well enough to predict it can you? Everything else is noise and politics my friend everything until you can predict something worthwhile a month out your models do not work, gigo..

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 22:04 | Link to Comment Hohum
Hohum's picture

Models are far from perfect--true enough.  I guess you believe that CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere can go to infiinity, right?

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 07:32 | Link to Comment FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

The day I see liberals wearing CO2 sequestration devices to keep the evil CO2 from coming out of their nose, and a methane capture system sticking out of their ass, is the day I MIGHT start believing in Global Warming, and the Religion of Climate Change.

 

Until then....

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Now we are getting somewhere you admit your models are worthless and you  just have a deep sense of foreboding and of course a consensus..  Explain why concentrations of co2 are so much higher in prehistoric silt samples and wher did it go and why your at it explain all solar activity maximums and minimums, when you can do that morph your foreboding into real concern and take two aspirin..

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

0.03% of air is carbon dioxide. Stop making up shit. Please?

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 21:17 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

QUANTIFYING THE DEATH SPIRAL OF CLIMATE SCIENCE: “In 2008, James Hansen declared that we were at a tipping point due to ice loss at both poles which was going to decimate life on the planet…Since the same date in 2008, Arctic ice has increased by more than 15%.”

Instapundit, Thanks Glenn

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 02:19 | Link to Comment CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Take your gravy-train "consensus" on "human-induced" global warming and shove it up your Socialist ass. Where it belongs.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 12:25 | Link to Comment djsmps
djsmps's picture

Al Qaeda will be starting forest fires this year too.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 20:26 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Pirate Party...ATTAAAAAAACK!!!!!!

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 21:35 | Link to Comment Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

To the good people of France,

The politicians have no answers, so vote in the direction of retaining Your Voice.

You will need it, you will want it, and you will rue the day you gave it up for lies.

Voicelessness kills the spirit, and without spirit, the organization withers and dies.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 21:45 | Link to Comment Auburn
Auburn's picture

The little red headed, 7 year old, freckled girl in me comes out .... 1+1 does not equal three, Monday's shorts will make a Queen out of me.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 22:48 | Link to Comment robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

So we're good to go until at least July 1st.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 22:50 | Link to Comment worbsid
worbsid's picture

It is 7:45PM PDST.  By tomorrow about this time we should know how it went in Europe ... Greece, France, Germany's partial elections.  Then we can speculate what the ALGOs will do Monday.

Also we will know if Ron Paul is Nevada's choice and the Republican Convention will be a farce without Nevada's delegates.

Pretty soon BBC's "Keeping Up Appearances" will be on PBS.  Hyacin reminds me of Europe and politic in general. 

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 23:26 | Link to Comment Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

Assuming a best case scenario…..

---will a Greek coalition government held together by string and sealing wax suddenly make Greece economically competitive within the euro?

---will an upset Sarkozy re-election suddenly make French banks solvent?

---will a CDU victory in Schleswig-Holstein suddenly make the German people eternally amenable to funding the shortcomings of the EU periphery?

---would the achievement of all three of these unlikely outcomes suddenly lead to Eurogrowth, serviceable budgets, and a public acceptance of austerity?

The best case means nothing has changed, while the worst case could see a multi-handle EURUSD gap opening and 3-5% downdrafts in equities.

They call it stormy Monday, but Tuesday's just as bad.......T-Bone Walker

CdM

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 02:08 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Schleswig Holstein is irrelevant - Nordreheinwestfalen votes on 13 May and that is the MOST important German State with a population of 17 million equal to East Germany and 4 of the 10 largest cities

http://www.wahlergebnisse.nrw.de/

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 04:53 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

it is very likely that the Greek presidential election will have a greater acute impact

 

Greece is having a PARLIAMENTARY election....their President is irrelevant

The President of the Republic is elected for five years by the Parliament (not through direct popular vote). Article 32 of the Greek Constitution provides that a President should be elected by roll call by a special session of Parliament and at least a month before the incumbent President is due to leave office

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 03:13 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

You mean the big banks and banksters may not be bailed out on the backs of individuals and families again?

Tears, I shed tears for those banksters - crocodile tears - but tears nonetheless.

The poor dears. 

*sob*

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 05:30 | Link to Comment MoreLiver
MoreLiver's picture

I've collected the recent articles to a linkfest and plan to update it as the "elections" and their aftermath progresses.

http://morelivers.blogspot.com/2012/05/5th-may-weekender-elections.html

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment mrdenis
Sun, 05/06/2012 - 10:01 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

S&P500 closed below weekly support that goes back to October 2011.  I don't think an election result in France is going to alter this change in trend.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/index/sp-500/weekly/

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment PeeramidIdeologies
PeeramidIdeologies's picture

Possibly OT, possibly not, but when I see uncle Buffet out lying through his teeth for no apparent reason, I tend to believe otherwise....

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-05/buffett-says-u-s-banks-a-cla...

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 13:37 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Yeah, they only have to monetize 1 country's shitty sovereign debt (we'll pretend those swap lines are "between friends").

 

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 13:06 | Link to Comment Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

I turn the big 55 this year and I have been thinking about when I was a teenager during the Vietnam war,and how incredible I found the amounts of money being spent then (THINK SMALL BEER NOW). This was the fatal ramp up in money printing,then the French suspected the US of shenanigans in the '68 riots and started accessing the gold window (repatriation of fiat for physical). Nixon closes the gold convertability,scraps Bretton-Woods treaty,and the world currency floats.First Japan buys our debt,then China,while everything is off-shored.The thing that truly pisses me off is that all those long hairs protesting the war have been proven correct.I never ever thought I would think of Nixon as a decent sort,but compare the situation then to now....Turn Wall Street into a parking lot,End the Fed,clear the debts.Time to start over.

Criminal penalties for financial fraud,confiscation of assets,long jail terms....

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 13:57 | Link to Comment Jake88
Jake88's picture

Tyler would benefit greatly in taking some courses in English communication. 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!