Previewing NAR's Humiliating Multi-Year Existing Home Sales Downward Revision

Tyler Durden's picture

Today at 10:00 am the National Advertiser [sic] of Realtors, aka the NAR, headed by chief advertiser Larry Yun, will share its latest mockery of "numbers" about the state of the existing home market. Concurrently it will also admit that as Zero Hedge has been asserting for years, those very numbers are a complete fabrication, and should be widely ignored by the broader analyst population, when it also releases an extensive downward revision of all home sales from 2007 to the present. Naturally, the revision will be a humiliation for all banks which built bullish theses on the housing sector based on this data, and most will have to re-revise their data even lower. As such, don't expect extensive post-facto analyses of what this revision means for future forecasts and readers will likely have to reach their own conclusions on the true state of the US housing market. The only good thing to come out of this revision is that, finally, the NAR monthly update will be relegated to the dustbin of economic indicators where it belongs. In the meantime, here is Goldman with an advance preview of what to expect.

10:00: Existing home sales (November): Downward revisions. We forecast that existing home sales rose by 1.0% (month-over-month) in November. The pending home sales index (a leading indicator) has picked up, which should imply moderate growth in existing home sales.


More interesting than the November result may be benchmark revisions to existing home sales scheduled for today’s report. The National Association of Realtors (NAR)—the group that compiles the existing home sales data—announced in a recent press release that existing home sales are likely to be revised down because the NAR has discovered “a notable upward drift in the data compared to other data measurements such as courthouse deeds records”. The bias appears to have resulted from a variety of factors: (1) sales of existing homes by property owners (i.e. without use of a realtor) declined during the housing recession, which caused the NAR’s realtor-based sample to increase as a share of total existing home sales; (2) a greater number of sales of new homes were mistakenly recorded as existing home sales; (3) some localities began reporting sales over a larger geographical area; and (4) some home sales may have been double counted in the underlying source data. According to the NAR, the revision will affect both sales and the number of homes on the market from 2007-present. The revision will not affect the “months supply” of homes or the report’s estimate of median sales prices

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the not so mighty maximiza's picture

So for the past 4 years all numbers were BS.  Nice!!!!!!!!   I am sure all data for the past 4 years were BS too.

LibertyIn2010's picture

beLIEve the NAR...ignorance is strength

Ruffcut's picture

can't believe any of the numbers. Like GDP is worth a shit, too. Gross default prediction.

The trend is your friend's picture

we can send a man to the moon, make telescopes that find planets like ours light years away, but can't seem to be able to accurately count a few hundred thousand home sales correctly....hhmm

smlbizman's picture

i say fuck it...go all in and revise upward!!

Surly Bear's picture

An 'auditor' would say 'if I cannot trust your numbers from before, then what changes in personnel or methodology have you made that would lead me to trust your numbers now?' After the auditor receives the reply, the auditor would quietly request all data for independent verification....

I don't see that happening so I call shenanigans.

redpill's picture

The answer is to use a better data source. And yes they do exist!

eureka's picture

Real Estate = leverage for dummies. Just what are US citizens to do now that "The Millionaire Next Door" is no more - and just what is US Empire to do now that the last convenient bubble has burst?

Out-Source the last productive jobs, Off-Shore the last profits, Socialize the last losses and Make War!

Empire, Bitchez!

twotraps's picture

exactly....although I Hate to be reasonable at this late stage.  We could give the task to the Govt., they run an ass-kicking accounting scheme over there.  Oh, and there's no conflict of interest or anything.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Now that the 'market' no longer is interested they can send out the actual numbers...

Da55id's picture

Release the revision when everyone is busy shopping. Trees/forest/sound?

Next year, real estate rallies against now honest 4 year dumpster numbers.

1835jackson's picture

But, but, but....oh fuck it....ok we at the NAR are a bunch of liars....our bads

chunga's picture

Show me the fax.

hugovanderbubble's picture

France downgraded * ALL THEIR BANKS ARE KAPUT ALL...Specially Credit Agricole and Societe Generale.


Honkong Downgraded * HSBC

Australia Downgraded

Canada Downgraded * Royal bank of canada kaput

Japan downgraded

Austria Downgraded

Sweden Downgraded

And GERMANY YES YES; GERMANY ...this country has cooked all the National Accounts book, their landesbanks are all Toasted and undercapitalized...






Neither norway...or Singapur

2012 will be funny....and scary


BOND bubble will blow up...soon...And its not a movie...

GeneMarchbanks's picture


Hugo you're like a Spanish Sean Egan ;)

distopiandreamboy's picture

We can start booking the profits we're going to get from mining Martian gold!

Yen Cross's picture

The only Triple-A I see , rises every morning.  +1

youLilQuantFuker's picture

It doesn't matter. The game was to use volatility to move speculative small money to the sidelines in equities. That money is restless and is now headed back into real estate.

Bubblicious II.

jtmo3's picture

I can see it now....we were wrong by 20%. Less houses moved and were built than we said. Oh and BTW, sales rose 1% last month. Trust us this time.


What a fuck nut that yun is.

Pegasus Muse's picture

NAR -- the BLS of housing stats

Sardonicus's picture

meanwhile they will continue counting dog houses, tree houses, doll houses, inflatable bounce houses, and cars that homeless people have been sleeping in.

fourchan's picture

dont forget out houses in the!

Gully Foyle's picture


And reruns of House seperately in each individual market

Captain Kink's picture

In the early '90s I lived here in the city and owned a '82 Ford Bronco that I parked on the street where I lived in Hell's Kitchen.  The triangle window was smashed so many times that I started leaving the rig unlocked and just let the homeless guys use it as their apartment during the winter nights.  Used to find syringes, McDonalds leftovers, etc on the floor.  I left a note asking that he/they please clean up after themselves---And they did start doing so.  Poor bastard(s) had some decency and apparently appreciated the gesture...

DB Cooper's picture

So NAR thought you had built a house - sounds logical to me.

Captain Kink's picture

It may have been multi-family.  That rig was huge.

Infinite QE's picture

Actually, you triggered gains in numerous economic categories:

1. New vehicle sales, as a new window equaled a new vehicle
2. Mobile home sales, for the above mentioned reason
3. Multi family home activity
4. Medical goods sales activity
5. Manufacturing activity as McDs are considered mfg goods

Well done

fonzanoon's picture

In what fucking profession can you incorrectly report the one fuckin thing you are supposed to report and then go ahead and give a current fuckin report and expect fuckin idiot media people to pontificate on this report, which the do. Fuckin fuck.

ceilidh_trail's picture

I watched the first 10 minutes of ABC GMA and couldn't stand it. These twits CANNOT really be as stupid as they sound. It only means THEY ARE LIERS. They do not even pretend to have honesty anymore. They had a Bloomberger (trish regan?) on just bubbling about the fantastic housing numbers of yesterday... I guess BB gives an air of validity?

Herkimer Jerkimer's picture

I've got to second that "fuckin' fuck" about these fucks!

In what world are these people living in, that they can consistently get it so wrong, for whatever reason,
let alone the insinuation that they are deliberately skewing the data,
and they are constantly given a pass or a do-over?!?


I must be living in bizarro world, because I get my ass handed to me, IF I SCREW UP, but not these fucks!


Neither does my mommy, who'se sitting on a pile of dough, waiting to invest, but is too scared fuckin' shitless of what's coming,
or more so, what she doesn't know is coming, because nobody is telling her the truth,
because I send her copies of ZeroHedge to read!

And she's long given up the idea that what she sees and hears is just too outrageous,
as we passed the "outrageous" stop, miles ago!

Up here in Canada, when I showed the ol' bat the orginal bit from August on the Canadian BANKS she nearly croaked!

And now we have all the rest of the news on hypothication and all the rest of it? And not a peep from our media!

She's heading for the hills. She believes nobody.
And when 81 year old mothers don't believe anything they hear, you know we're all in big trouble.

Keep up the great work, ZeroHedge!

Once again, you bring it!


Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

Amen, brotha.

As for the NAR's apparent "error", really, what penalty might there be? They're not an investment service, not govt, etc. They are merely reporting "in good faith". They will fear no reprisals or knocks on the door from finance police. But what sort of f*nut would actually listen to the equivalent of a used car salesman to determine ANY course of action on investments? 

ceilidh_trail's picture

This data is equal in value to the numbers coming out of BLS- GIGO.

death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

I see this as Bullish. I mean Bullshit.

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

a local man I know told me this week that he refi'd at 3% plus points. his home appras'd at 290,000 this go round..he bought it in 2008 for get ready: $460,000..and better news yet..home next door been on market for 8 months..highest offer $200,000!

the numbers are worse than they will report and have reported. at least here.  We are Not in Detroit or rust belt area.

fourchan's picture

i live in the city of detroit and have seen all your futures, its not good.

Gully Foyle's picture


Did it involve Peter Weller and the Dad from That 70's show?

JPM Hater001's picture

Im in Wisconsin and they busted our unions up.  This makes me sad as I was hoping to become the disney land unions created in detroit.

twotraps's picture

Seriously, I have family there and when visiting I wonder about buying up some land in the city and they just laugh.   Can that thing ever bottom?

westboundnup's picture

NAR is representative of real estate agents generally.  From 2007 onward the local real estate association has claimed that it was a good time to buy.

Silverhog's picture

All the vacant trashed houses in my area are still there. Long live the recovery.

1835jackson's picture

Had a friend tell me the other day that a realtor is one step up from hair stylist

Big Corked Boots's picture

Actually, my barber IS a real estate salesman... he cuts hair so he can buy food.

Optimusprime's picture

Hilarious.  Now that you mention it, the same is true here locally--the RE agent who sold my son his house started and continues as a hair stylist.

homersimpson's picture

more like one step up from being a car salesman - or a loan officer. At least the hair stylist makes an honest living.

youLilQuantFuker's picture

Mine is basically an insider trader who cuts hair as part of his interrogation technique.

Larry Dallas's picture

Realtors are all whores. Brainwashed too. It's a strange cult of narcisists that one can find no where else, perhaps on local TV as anchor men and women.

William Murderface's picture

C'mon now, being a hair stylist does require some skill.  A realtor however, requires..........well let's se........requires that you be able to fog a mirror perhaps?