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Previewing Next Week's Events

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Next week will be relatively light in economic reporting, and with no HFT exchange IPOs on deck, and the VVIX hardly large enough to warrant a TVIX type collapse, it may be downright boring. The one thing that will provide excitement is whether or not the US economic decline in March following modestly stronger than expected January and February courtesy of a record warm winter, will accelerate in order to set the stage for the April FOMC meeting in which Bill Gross, quite pregnant with a record amount of MBS, now believes the first QE hint will come. Naturally this can not happen unless the market drops first, but the market will only spike on every drop interpreting it for more QE hints, and so on in a senseless Catch 22 until the FRBNY is forced to crash the market with gusto to unleash the NEW qeasing (remember - the Fed is now officially losing the race to debase). For those looking for a more detailed preview of next week's events, Goldman provides a handy primer.

From Goldman Sachs

The data releases last week were a bit mixed, with strong export orders in Taiwan and continued strong US Jobless claims, but weaker flash PMIs in Europe and China. In contrast to the PMI, the French business confidence survey improved in March.

In the coming week, it will be interesting to watch if German IFO index also contradicts the surprisingly weak Flash Eurozone PMI, similar to the INSEE already. In Europe, the focus will also be on the Euro area flash CPI, where we expect some moderation to 2.5%yoy as the decline in non-core components will likely continue. Aside from the inflation numbers, there will be an informal EcoFin Meeting on Friday and Saturday, where an increase of the ESM is likely to be discussed again.

In terms of US activity data, the focus will be on the Chicago PMI, Durable Goods and Personal Income. Though we do expect a technical rebound in the durable good orders after the weakness in the previous report, we think the Chicago PMI could slip by more (to 60 from 64) than consensus expects. Overall, the message from US activity data may therefore remain mixed outside the still-strong labour market data.

In terms of Asian activity data, the end of the week will be important. The official China PMI for March will be interesting after the weakness in the Flash PMI. Korean trade is the first non-survey based activity indicator published globally that is published for the previous month. Both are due next Sunday.

In terms of FX markets, we will remain quite focused on the Yen, partly because of our recommendation and partly because of the fiscal year-end in Japan and related possible last-minute volatility. The IP number for February could be important as the main data release for Japan in the upcoming week. Given the focus on rate differentials for $/JPY, but also more broadly for the Dollar, three speeches by Chairman Bernanke on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday could be relevant. The upcoming week is very heavy on Fed speeches with at least one scheduled every day.

Finally, there are central bank meetings in Turkey (watch for any references to Lira weakness), Hungary, Czech Republic, and South Africa.

Monday 26 March

Germany IFO (Mar): Consensus expects 109.7 after 109.6 in February.

Singapore IP (Feb): Consensus expects 4.1%mom after 303% in January.

Israel CB Meeting: We expect no change from 2.50%, in line with consensus.

Argentina GDP (Q4): We expect 7.8%yoy vs consensus of 7.5% after 9.3% in Q3.

Ben Bernanke Speech

Draghi Speech

Tuesday 27 March

US Consumer Confidence (Mar): Consensus expects 70.4 after 70.8 in February. GS: 71.0

S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Jan): Consensus expects -0.3%mom after -0.5 in December. GS: +0.2%

Turkey CB Meeting: We expect no change from 5.75%, in line with consensus. The focus will be on the guidance from the central bank with respect to the tighter liquidity conditions to manage money market rates in face of continued Lira depreciation pressure.

Hungary CB Meeting: We expect no change from 7.00%, in line with consensus.

Ben Bernanke Lecture

Italian Bond Auction (2/10yr)

Wednesday 28 March

Germany Flash CPI (Mar): Consensus expects 0.4%mom after 0.9% in February.

US Durable Goods Orders (Feb): Durable goods orders likely rebounded smartly in February after a sharp drop at the start of the year. Consensus expects 2.9%mom after -4.0% in January, GS: +3.5%.

Sweden NIER Survey (Mar): Consensus expects -1.5 after -3.2 in February.

ECB's Weidmann Speech

Also interesting: France/UK Q4 GDP (3rd)

Thursday 29 March

Japan Retail Sales (Feb): Consensus expects -0.2%mom after 4.1% in Januray.

US GDP (Q4 3rd): We expect no change from the second reading of 3.0%qoq ann, in line with consensus.

South Africa CB Meeting: We expect no change from 5.50%, in line with consensus.

Czech Republic CB Meeting: We expect no change from 0.75%, in line with consensus.

Italian Bond Auction (5/10yr)

Friday 30 March

UK Consumer Confidence (Mar): Consensus expects no change from -29 in February.

Japan CPI (Feb): Consensus expects 0.0%yoy after 0.1% in January.

Euro area flash CPI (Mar): We expect 2.5%yoy after 2.7% in February, in line with consensus.
US Personal Income/Spending (Feb): Consensus expects income to grow by 0.4%mom after 0.3% in January (GS: +0.5%), whereas spending is seen to have risen by +0.6%mom by GS and consensus from +0.2% in January.

Switzerland KOF (Mar): Consensus expects 0.1 after -0.12 in February.

Canada GDP (Jan): Consensus expects 0.1%mom after 0.4% in December.

US Chicago PMI (Mar): Consensus expects a moderate decline to 63 from 64 in Feb. We see the risk skewed to a bigger decline to 60.

EU finance minister meeting (informal EcoFin)

Also interesting: South Korea Q4 GDP (3rd), Chile/Mexico Central Bank Minutes, US Mar Chicago PMI, Japan/South Korea Feb IP

Saturday 31 March

India Current account balance (3QFY12): We expect the current account deficit to rise to US$20.1 bn (4.4% of GDP) in 3QFY12 from the US$16.9 bn (3.8% of GDP) previously, on a higher trade deficit. Coupled with capital outflows due to the European crisis, this is expected to keep the BBoP in deficit.

Sunday 1 April

China Official PMI (Mar): We expect the March official PMI to be largely stable. The flash reading of the HSBC/Markit PMI fell by more than 1 percentage point from its January-February average, which suggests weak growth. However, loan supply has been picking up recently which may raise the final reading and seasonal patterns also suggest a slightly stronger March reading in the official PMI.

Korea Trade Balance (Mar): We expect exports to maintain a positive sequential momentum following weaknesses in January and early-February. High frequency data suggests that daily exports in March could have increased around 5% yoy (0% yoy on the headline) if the recent trends continue. Korean trade data is globally the most timely activity indicator not based on surveys.

 

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Sun, 03/25/2012 - 19:05 | 2289262 knukles
knukles's picture

Been shortchanged, it's not complete.
No O'Neill self effacing congratulatory egocentric selfcentered diatribe of useless pabulum decomposed to appear intelligent.
Ah, but the snowy morning in Chiswick or the spiritual moment flying over the Wailing Wall.
Jesus...
My granny once told me prayer can help...

Dear Lord, please strike down those motherfuckers in a world of pain for no better reason than they've pissed me off.
Amen


Sun, 03/25/2012 - 20:52 | 2289490 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Amen to that, brother.

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 19:11 | 2289283 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Just what the doctor ordered. Will the Yen repatriate?

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 19:14 | 2289296 asteroids
asteroids's picture

It'll be interesting to see if the SEC or BATS has details on trades of AAPL or BATS.

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 22:26 | 2289803 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

not holding my breath on that one...shit, they're still confused about the first flash crash as well as MF Global.

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 19:15 | 2289300 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

It will be a strange week in a run of them

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 19:18 | 2289308 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Every week stranger than the one before. It's a weird world.

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 19:21 | 2289316 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 You are just" MORE" tuned in my friend.

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 20:19 | 2289431 knukles
knukles's picture

Don't know if it's the strangeness of reality or HAARP waves, but sure makes my nuts shrivel.

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 19:24 | 2289325 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Since those making the rules routinely change them to manipulate the data to present suit there needs, there's almost no point in even watching it.  I don't trust the numbers to begin with, I suspect they're cooked to preserve the 'no harm in adding a little more debt to the system' status quo, and as the majority of the mainstream investment community accepts them at face value, I also expect them to have the desired effect of keeping everybody complacent and fully believing that everything's fine, problems all solved, even though I personally think they're bullshit.

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 20:26 | 2289441 knukles
knukles's picture

Ya know, Al, I'm not entirely sure that most of the formal investment community buy into the propaganda charade that's taking place all about us.  Seems to me from my personal contacts that most folks are highly suspicious of the status quo's pabulum and rubbish, but nobody within the community wishes to Break the Nash Equilibrium.
There's just too much in the sense of security, riding upon it.  The paycheck, health care bennies, paying for college, vacations, mortgage... think about it.  And most professional portfolio managrs make pretty damned good bucks.
Listen, a old friend of mine, visible, known name, goes on with the biz as he has for many years... but on the QT, there's something dramatically fucking wrong.  And this, my friend, is what I'm finding more and more to be the New Status Quo.  Playing the game at the office, officially but believing differently inside the head.  True cognitive dissonance.
Reminiscent of the olde Soviet Union and satellite countries.
Everybody knows whose got a decent IQ... or at least suspects something's amiss.

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 22:53 | 2289857 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Interesting perspective, thanks.  In a way even more disconcerting, to have everybody playing along even though they know the game's going to end.  I talk to people in the industry and get a mixed response.  Some seem suspicious that maybe things aren't all they're cracked up to be, others seem to just accept whatever they're told.

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 20:55 | 2289470 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


don't forget the korean trade balance, next sunday!

  1. Pending Home Sales on Monday,
  2. the Case-Shiller 20-city Index and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday,
  3. Durable Goods Orders on Wednesday,
  4. Initial Jobless Claims and GDP on Thursday,
  5. and Personal Income and Spending, Core PCE Prices, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Sentiment on Friday

tarbender!  back tyler up again, ok?  we're gonna need some xtra dionysian, w/ three fuking benzelbub episodes!  and another plate of those deep-fried QE'z, too please! 

wtf!  extra B12 and everybody takes a shot every benZ shoulda said "zombie" and didn't; or you may alernately havaToke or take off a piece of clothing at each instance

you will need plenty for the FEDz0mBeepar-teez;  i am gonna get another bong, too

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 20:50 | 2289488 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

OK - is "qesing" pronounced "kwi- zing"? New term and I like it. 

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 21:13 | 2289540 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i was goin w/:   cue-eZin'

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 20:59 | 2289505 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

This is all wrong

The most important item of this week is the price of oil.  How it ends the quarter determines Q1 GDP because of its influence on the GDP price index.

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 21:15 | 2289546 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

link?

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 02:53 | 2290114 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Look in the GDP wiki.  The GDP components are all defined largely by the GDP price deflator (index).  That is NOT the CPI.  It weights rent much lower than the CPI does and therefore oil (gasoline) is weighted higher.

If oil closes March above, say 108, that's a 10% gain for the quarter because it closed last year just under 100.  Gasoline is likely worse.  The Q1 GDP calculation will be slammed by this.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 04:29 | 2290154 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

well, i get your drift...

yes there are 2 sets of numbers:  the nominal and the deflator-adjusted GDP

the nominal is usually the headline GDP, tho, isn't it?  then the deflator-adjusted figure is also given, too? 

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 21:05 | 2289523 Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Well....this is the week I was predicting the market crash and the start of Iranian military action back in late 2011. Busy week but nothing to major on the radar.....

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 23:02 | 2289843 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

well, p_A, there was a ton af sabre-rattling around christmas and all the bowl games and the NFLplayoffs plus the "holiday shopping news" for those who still haven't made the personal choice to stop watching TV completely

maybe you'll still hit the dailyDouble, tho: your race isn't over

i still maintain iran is a stable situ and a good place for all parties to accept the situ for a good, long while, and that it is to no one's advantage to start a war

as always, the devil is in the details; no hurry; the situ is stable; the EU made it thruMarch, too!

maybe things are as shitty as people think, but not quite as unstable, at the present?

it gets crazy in the present from time-to-time, but this has been crazy enuf for slewie w/out rushing things

trust me

as i try to maintain my life and sail my course thru better and worse; i don't mind the iranians or anybody else getting the same deal

we're only talking the US, russia, china, israel, iran, india, the EU and also the UN and NATO plus 0PEC involved

these are the slewie peace talks; pirates everywhere!

these fuktards can do it, too:   think of all the people, world-wide, who are gonna wanna wring their little puppet necks if they don't

disregard the propaganda on the screen, there,  and hold er steady, now

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 23:43 | 2289944 oldman
oldman's picture

pi-rat

"slewie peace talks"

I like that!  When do we get started?  Life is just too damned easy to have all these wars---how can humans complicate things so?

Too many dumb questions---thanks for the great idea  

  peace talks are the same as doing-nothing, an idea whose time has come            om

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 04:51 | 2290160 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

well, yes!

the slewiePeaceTalks have been in session about three months now;  some days are better than most...

i'm fightClub serious, BiCheZ,  and these "elites" are starting to get the message now, too!

so there!

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 13:19 | 2291575 oldman
oldman's picture

@pi-rat

slewie,

Does this   "-----these "elites" are starting to get the message now, too!"  in any way refer to the 'intel'ies leak three fridays ago about iran being a non-threat at present and with Lord Fisher's rant against the 2big2fail?

I'm trying not to make too much of either, but it is tempting to think about.

In addition, as you well know, the mood at ZH, barring the rednecks, has shifted significantly from a year ago---since my first comments not even a year ago there seems to be a shift away from death and destruction as the answer to everything-----

Maybe I'm just seeing what I want to see   om

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 21:33 | 2289599 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Mortgage giants Fannie Mae (OBB:FNMA.OB - News) and Freddie Mac (OBB:FMCC.OB - News) are being pushed to reduce borrowers' mortgage balances in order to shield U.S. banks from taking losses on distressed housing debt, the companies' regulator said in a Financial Times interview published on Sunday. "If you do principal forgiveness, who is it benefiting? ... Doing principal forgiveness is what would protect the big banks," said Edward DeMarco, the acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency."

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-regulator-feels-pressure-over-233410508....

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 21:34 | 2289601 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

probably old news

 

has unveiled legislation enshrining police powers to hold people at unknown locations, but has removed a controversial secrecy clause after an outcry.

Experts had warned that the original draft would have legalised disappearances by allowing police to hold some suspects for up to six months without informing their families.

The revisions to the criminal procedure law were unveiled at- -Congress on Thursday, and will be passed by what is essentially a rubber stamp 

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/08/china-legislation-police-pow...

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 21:38 | 2289611 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

and now a puke moment

 

From IndyMac to OneWest: Steven (Goldman Sachs) Mnuchin's Big Score

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-03-22/from-indymac-to-onewest-...

the puke is mostly for the Mayor's rosy perspective on this most excellent gift

Rattner, I say Rattner get me a deal like this, UNDERSTOOD!!

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 22:28 | 2289809 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Hmmm, slow week eh?  Sounds like a great time for a black swan landing...

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 22:44 | 2289824 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

2

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 22:52 | 2289854 oldman
oldman's picture

Hey pi-rat,

I left you a long 'thank you' at #2289011 for the help you gave me yesterday.

Thanks again, dear brother                     om

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 23:32 | 2289920 mendigo
mendigo's picture

"but the market will only spike on every drop interpreting it for more QE hints, and so on in a senseless Catch 22 until the FRBNY is forced to crash the market with gusto"

Tyler is too funny!

I think maybe they put bens testcles away until after the election. In the meantime they're just jaw-boning it.

I wonder if the last great depression was really this much fun.

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