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Previewing Next Week's Main Events

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Curious what the investing world will focus on next week? Here is a recap courtesy of Goldman Sachs, though for those who want the punchline now, just fast forward to Thursday when get Spain and French bond auctions. In the meantime just ignore all the intraday trading halts of Intesa, UniCredit And Banco Popolare. The rest is just the supporting cast.

For the week ahead, we are focused on retail sales, government bond auctions in Spain and France, and central bank meetings in Chile, India, the Philippines, and Sweden.

Monday Apr 16

India WPI (Mar) We expect March WPI inflation at 6.7% yoy, essentially in line with consensus but lower than the 7.0% yoy in February on strong favorable base effects from last year. Primary articles inflation, which led the rise in February WPI and double-digit fuel inflation are expected to keep the headline reading from declining too low. The highlight is core WPI, which is expected to decline further to close to 5% yoy.

US Retail Sales (Mar) We forecast that retail sales increased strongly in March, despite a decline in vehicle sales during the month. We forecast a rise of 0.6% mom, above consensus (0.4% mom). Chain-store sales results were solid and warm weather was probably still a modest positive.

US Long-Term TIC Data (Feb)

Tuesday Apr 17

India Central Bank Meeting We expect the Reserve Bank of India to cut repo rates by 25 bp in its Annual Monetary Policy Meeting, in line with consensus. We do not expect the language to be very dovish, as the Reserve Bank of India mentions risks from suppressed inflation. We continue to expect 125 bp of rate cuts in 2012.

Chile Central Bank Meeting Consensus expects the central bank to stay on hold.

US Housing Starts (Mar) Housing starts likely rebounded in March after declining in February. The sharp drop in single-family starts last month seemed at odds with improving permits and better survey-based data, and should partly reverse. We forecast a rise of 5.0% mom, above consensus of 1.0%.

US Industrial Production (Mar) We are in line with consensus, looking for a reading of 0.3% mom after a flat reading in February.

Wednesday Apr 18

Malaysia CPI (Mar) We expect inflation to come in at 2.1 % yoy for March, in line with consensus. Previously, CPI inflation came in at 2.2% yoy.

Turkey Central Bank Meeting Consensus expects the central bank to stay on hold.

Sweden Central Bank Meeting Consensus sees the Riksbank on hold, as do we. We expect the Riksbank to be on hold for the rest of the year, before hiking rates in Q2 2013. While we see some downside risk in the short run (from European sovereign tensions), the Riksbank will likely also remain concerned about the build-up of domestic household debt.

Thursday Apr 19

Philippines Central Bank Meeting We expect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to hold at 6.00% for the policy repo rate and 4.00% for the reverse repo rate, in line with consensus. Pressure from higher fuel prices has raised the hurdle for further rate cuts after 50 bp cuts so far since the last easing cycle ended in July 2009.

Spain and France Bond Auctions

US Initial Claims (Apr 14) Consensus is looking for a reading of 370k after a reading of 380k last week.

US Philadelphia Fed Survey (Apr) The Philadelphia Fed’s business activity index will provide an early indication of manufacturing sector momentum for April. We expect a slight decline to +10.0 from +12.5. Consensus expects +12.0.

Friday Apr 20

Germany IFO (Apr) Consensus expects a reading of 109.5, down slightly from 109.8 in March.

 


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Sun, 04/15/2012 - 17:05 | Link to Comment Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

I am getting itchy for a nice sale on the PM's.  Thats what I would like to see!!

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 20:23 | Link to Comment TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Me too. Not sure why people would downvote you for that.

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 20:45 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

Seriously...it's like playing Monopoly and getting a bank error in my favor.

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 17:09 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Can't wait till France goes the way of PIIGS.  Hope it happens before JAPAN becomes FUBAR. Maybe France will get hit this Thursday.  Yippee!  

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 17:24 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hollande looks like he will win.  Bad for business, worse for the economy.

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 17:47 | Link to Comment TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

"Hollande looks like he will win. Bad for business, worse for the economy."

Good for corporate fascism.

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 18:28 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

ZeroHedge quoted a report I think from Switzerland's UBS, saying, don't worry about France's Hollande, he talks more leftist than he acts, won't be a very dramatic change in France's economic policy.

On the other hand, from Bruce Krasting here on ZeroHedge - Something really radical that may be led by France, regardless of who wins, given the impossibility of bailing out Spain and Italy -

From Bruce's talk with a French-government related source in Paris, what may happen is the wealthier EU countries, guarantee to cover interest payments and trade deficits for countries like Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland ... but NOT bond rollovers.

Instead of repayment of principal, bondholders get 3-year new bonds at EU-determined yield rates, rolled over indefinitely ... yes, technically a 'default' ... and 'breaking' the EU bond market ... but as it seems to be essentially already broken anyway ...

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-15-12/three-conversations

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 17:12 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

Interested to see what the revision is going to be for last week's jobless claims. Will the revision put us back over 400k?

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 19:53 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Should not the headline read "Previewing THIS Week's Main Events"?

Why jump over what is going on this week?

Or has leap year and/or Daylight Saving Time confusion and temporal blobbing-up struck once again?

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 17:24 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

"Review of Barron's, Dated 16 April" is now up at my blog.  "Marginal Utility and Gold" is still there on the first page, but will be off after my next piece.

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 17:39 | Link to Comment luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

It's time for men to be men!...If your lady is part of the 99.9% of the  shoppers, I see in the mall, carrying a shopping bag, five day's out of the week, have the gut's to sit her down and explain the situation to her... Even though, she may be the major contributor!...

In my case, in one ear, out the other...At least I tried!

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment kill switch
kill switch's picture

By James Howard Kunstler
on April 9, 2012 9:26 AM

Is there a Baby Boomer so dim in this land of rackets and swindles who thinks that he or she will escape the wrath of the Millennials rising? The developing story is so obvious that only an academic economist could fail to notice. Here's how it will go: some months from now, as the financial unwind worsens, and the mirage of gainful employment shimmers away to nothing, and the technocrats of Europe meet nervously by some Swiss lakeside (and are seen glumly shaking their heads), and Romney and Obama try to out-do each other peddling miracle cures for the tanking national self-esteem - a dangerous meme will go forth across the internet, and this meme will say: Millennials, renounce your college loans and set yourselves free! And then something truly marvelous will happen. They will at once disempower the swindling generation of their fathers, teachers, loan officers, and overlords and quite possibly bring on, at long last, the epochal collision of pervasive American control fraud with the hard hand of reality. I think this will happen, and I would venture even to set the meme loose here and now and watch it go viral. The college loan racket has been an even more cynical enterprise than the mortgage racket was because so many people who ought to have known better, people of supposed intelligence such as college deans, cabinet secretaries, and think-tank Yodas, all colluded to support the false promise that the gigantic cargo cult of higher ed would keep churning out fresh careers forever - when the truth was that the entire groaning vessel of hopes and dreams was already under water and sinking into the eternal darkness. And is there a Millennial so dim who believes that the promised package of lifetime goodies once called "a job with benefits" waits like a liveried servant to conduct them without friction through the ceremonies of career and family according to premises and promises of an obsolete American Dream? Dreams do die hard. As dreams go it was a pretty good one while it lasted, but like all dreams, it has vanished in the mists of a new morning leaving the dreamers half-sick, anxious, and drained. They have nothing to lose but their fears of the re-po man and the simulated dudgeon of telephone robot debt-collectors. This idea should catch on as the election season heats up. Like the anti-war youth of August, 1968, burning their draft cards in the streets of Chicago, the Millennials should flock to Charlotte and Tampa this summer and fill the parking lots (there are no streets in these places) with the smoke of their burning loan contracts - and then proceed with the loud repudiation of party politics in its two current useless, lying, craven, feckless factions. The effrontery of these rogues, promising a hundred years of shale gas, and jobs, jobs, jobs, and a personal relationship with Jesus! Send them packing into the bowels of history, then go home and make it work locally, where it will have to happen in any case because the arc of events has a velocity of its own now and that is our certain destination. The colleges themselves will, of course, implode shortly, along with everything else currently organized on the super-gigantic scale. They are no more prepared for what is about to happen to them than the chiselers in government, banking, medicine, and global corporate enterprise. We will wonder in retrospect how they ever managed to winkle 50-grand a year for their absurd promises, and how we permitted young people with undeveloped powers of judgment to sign their financial lives away on terms even more stringent than their parents' mortgages. When the universities do go down, tossing their employees overboard in the process, it will be interesting to see the former faculty chairpersons and distinguished professors of econometric modeling learn how to plant kale and care for chickens side-by-side with their formerly-indentured students. I can imagine a period of turmoil in America even harsher than, say, the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s in China where officials, professors, and authorities of all kinds were paraded through the angry mobs wearing dunce caps. Weird things happen history. The college loan money will not be paid back anyway, so Millennial youth ought to seize the golden opportunity to make the deliberate point that the years of swindling are officially over now. This strange jubilee could, and should, change everything.
Sun, 04/15/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment IToldYouSo
IToldYouSo's picture

If only eyes would open wide and see the bright light of reality that faces them and do something about it

I've tried very hard to show others but it is so bloody hard

Some people cant understand and more just wont 

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 19:12 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Yeah?... Well, the jackbooted thugs of the Department of Education OIG might have something to say about that. They’ve got the kids cell phone numbers and will triangulate and hunt them down from the beaches South Padre Island to the bars of Daytona. There will be no escaping the iron debt grip that the banks have on those ungrateful kids.

"He [a federal agent] had his knee on my back and I had no idea why they were there."--Kenneth Wright, victim of a Dept. of Education SWAT team raid

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-w-whitehead/swat-team-mania-the-war-a_b_875967.html

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 19:23 | Link to Comment boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

....NOT dunce caps!!!

I DO hope they weren't too tight.

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 19:41 | Link to Comment Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

They will get put to work.  Don't worry.  They will get some boots and a helmet and a fancy machine gun.  And they will take a nice trip to a far away land.

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 17:46 | Link to Comment Eclipse89
Eclipse89's picture

Will be a very interesting week..

Fasten your seat belts and get the party started!

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 18:03 | Link to Comment IToldYouSo
IToldYouSo's picture

Every Monday, without fail, I get the popcorn in and chill my beers in anticipation that this will be the week when the beautiful moment will occur and all this shite that passes for an economy caves in..... I can dream, I suppose, that THIS is the one :-)

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment IToldYouSo
IToldYouSo's picture

Tyler, is this a verbatim cut of what Goldbum Sucks put out? if so, I was tickled that the entry on thursday for the French and Italian bond auctions carries no opinion!

Have GS finally run out of positive spin for the euro nightmare AND dont know what the fuck is going happen me wonders? he he snigger

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 18:11 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

big EU firewall test onThursday, BiCheZ! 

L0L!!!

Mon, 04/16/2012 - 00:32 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
Sun, 04/15/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Silberadler
Silberadler's picture
ECB Inflation guardians demand inflation protection for themselves

LOLWUT !?!?

run this:

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/0,1518,druck-827681,00.html

through google translator.

 

You will be amazed ...

Can anyone tell me where to get the application from for inflation protection ?

 

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 18:36 | Link to Comment IToldYouSo
IToldYouSo's picture

kind of reminds me a little of Men in Black, the bit where Agent K says watch what the other bugs do if you wanna know where the shits happening

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 18:52 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

yeOldeCoyneShoppe

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 19:42 | Link to Comment Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Good call on the code talk.  Im reading you 5 by 5.

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 20:04 | Link to Comment schatzi
schatzi's picture

Yeah read that earlier today. So these ECB shysters that should be protecting us from inflation, are getting tax paid salaries that in addition we taxpayers need to index to inflation, while our own savings are getting diluted? Don't know whether to laugh hysterically or go cry in a corner.

Sun, 04/15/2012 - 21:27 | Link to Comment gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Can't see anything but gently sauteed data followed by massive ECB buying on Thursday, with ecb intervention as necessary in the PIIGS bonds......... also look for QE3 hints as well....as wrong as it is this week is green. When it unwinds it will be something out of Looney tunes........

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