Previewing Today's Busy Day
Busy day today with lots of economic data and some more Fed good cap-bad cop theater as both hawk Bullard and dove Pianalto pretend to give an objective picture of what is on CTRL+P's mind.
8:30: Retail sales (March): No weather payback (yet). We expect that warm winter weather boosted retail sales over the last several months, but it is probably too soon to expect a negative payback in today's report, given that temperatures were still higher than normal in March (and to a greater degree than in February). In addition, chain-store sales results suggest that household spending held up well during the month. Although the decline in vehicle sales should weigh on the headline figure, non-auto and "core"/control retail sales look set for strong gains.
Total: GS: +0.6%; Consensus: +0.3%; Last: +1.1%.
Ex-autos: GS: +0.8%; Consensus: +0.6%; Last: +0.9%. MAP: 4
Ex-autos, gas & building materials: GS: +0.4%; Consensus: +0.5%; Last: +0.5%.
8:30: Empire State Index (April): Small decline? The consensus expects a small retreat in the Empire State manufacturing index to +18.0 from +20.2 previously. Last month the headline series from this report edged higher, but its new orders and shipments components both declined.
Consensus: +18.0; Last +20.2.
9:00: TICS net inflows (February). Net foreign inflows into "long-term" US securities increased sharply in January as overseas investors stepped up purchases of Treasuries. Foreign inflows into corporate bonds and equities also increased moderately in that month, but net purchases of agency securities declined.
Consensus: +$40bn; last +$101bn.
10:00: Business inventories (February). Not a market mover, but the non-auto retail inventory component could have implications for our Q1 GDP tracking estimate (currently 2.5% annualized).
Consensus: +0.6%; last +0.7%.
10:00: Housing Market Index (April): Steady? After rising quickly between October and February, the NAHB's homebuilder sentiment index stabilized at 28 in March. The consensus expects another flat reading for April.
Consensus: 28; Last 28. MAP: 1
12:30: Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto gives speech titled "Banking and Economic Outlook".
15:30: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on the economy and monetary policy. Q&A expected.