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Previewing Today's Busy Economic Agenda
Lots of stuff happening today.
Here is a full rundown from GS:
8:30: Consumer Price Index (April): Firm core. CPI inflation likely decelerated in April on a decline in energy prices. We forecast an increase of just +0.05% (month-over-month) for the all-items index. In contrast, we expect another firm reading for the core CPI of +0.19%. Although we expect that apparel and new vehicle prices declined during the month, this was likely offset by stable rent inflation and faster price gains in used vehicles and a few other items.
CPI: GS: +0.05%; Consensus: Flat; Last +0.29%.
Core CPI: GS: +0.19%; Consensus: +0.2%; last +0.23%.
8:30: Retail sales (April): Below consensus. We forecast that retail sales declined slightly in April, given weak chain-store sales results, weather payback and flat vehicle sales during the month. The core (or "control") measure should increase modestly.
Total: GS: -0.1%; Consensus: +0.1%; Last: +0.8%.
Ex-autos: GS: -0.1%; Consensus: +0.2%; Last: +0.8%.
Ex-autos, gas & building materials: GS: +0.1%; Consensus: +0.3%; Last: +0.4%.
8:30: Empire State Index (May): Slightly better? The Empire State index will provide an early read on manufacturing activity in May. The consensus forecasts a small improvement to +9.0 from +6.6 previously.
Consensus: +9.0; Last +6.6.
9:00: TICS net inflows (March). Foreign inflows into long-term US securities slowed in February on lower net inflows into Treasuries. Net inflows into agency securities have been roughly steady, while inflows into equities have increased.
Consensus: +$33bn; last +$10bn.
9:30: Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke on "Prescriptions for Housing Recovery".
10:00: Business inventories (March). Not a market mover, but the report could have implications for revisions to Q1 GDP growth (originally reported at +2.2% annualized; now tracking +2.1%).
Consensus: +0.4%; last +0.6%.
10:00: Housing Market Index (May): Steady? The NAHB's homebuilder sentiment index lost some steam in April after generally improving figures over the preceding 6-9 months. The consensus looks for a rebound to 26 for May, but this would leave the index below its March level (28).
Consensus: 26; Last 25. MAP: 1
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What happened to this?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greece-virtually-out-cash-one-day-critical...
Maybe ZH have the inside info and it was a fizzer :(
<edit> or maybe that TD isn't out of bed yet :-D
...and they're already goosing the futures in anticipation of some serious fraudulent bullshit data flowing out these reports.
I just read Bill Gross talk down treasuries again. He made sense. I then read that he cut his treasury holdings down to 1/3 of his flagship funds portfolio....who the fk owns 1/3 of something that they constantly make passionate arguments against.
Jim Rogers says he is holding more dollars right now than ever. He then goes on to totally trash the dollar.
It hurts bad right now but I am sticking with Schiff. At least the guy puts his money where his mouth is.
If you bothered to read more than the headlines you'd actually understand something. Rogers says he is long the dollar because everyone else was betting against it; I was (and still am) long UUP for the same reason, not to mention 50% of the DXY is in the Euro which is going to falter far worse.
Step the fuck back and look at the big picture. We are all walking around buying Ipads with bits of paper that some asshole prints with the push of an ENTER key. Insanity.
And his name is Bloomberg not Bernanke. Now keep staring at that little picture. You're doing JUST fine...
So, the Bloomberg ticker says Retail Sales ^0.01%... Ex-Auto ^0.01%.
Meh.
I voted "5" on this article because, while it lacks the sensationalism we have come to expect as our view of the abyss, and those slipping into it, has become clearer, it provides an important "heads up".
TICS net OUTflows= 49BN - YIKES.
net outflow of $49.9bn made up of private outflows of $57.7 bn and official inflows of $7.8 bn.