Previewing Today's Main Event
Today we get the December employment report and a murder of Fed Doves speaks later in the day.
8:30: Employment Report (December): Goldman sees firmer job growth and forecasts that nonfarm payroll employment rose by 175,000 in December. The pickup from a gain of 120,000 in November reflects mainly the continued decline in initial unemployment claims and an improvement in consumers’ assessment of current conditions in the labor market. Based on the latest available data—most importantly, the weaker-than-expected employment component in the non-manufacturing ISM index for December—GS sees moderate downside risk to our call. Because the stronger-than-expected ADP report was likely distorted by seasonal adjustment problems it is not considered a source of upside risk for payrolls. In terms of components, watch for a potential slowing in retail employment following exceptionally strong growth in November. In contrast, growth in a few sectors, such construction and leisure/hospitality, may have been supported by relatively warm weather last month.
Goldman forecasts that the unemployment rate rose by one tenth to 8.7% following a sharp decline in November. Today’s report will contain revisions to the seasonal adjustment of the labor market indicators derived from the household survey (but not the payroll survey). The revisions could affect recent trends in the household survey’s measure of employment growth, the unemployment rate, and the labor force participation rate. The more important annual benchmark revisions to the household and payroll surveys will be released next month.
Payrolls: GS: +175k; Consensus: +155k; Last +120k.
Unemployment: GS 8.7%; Consensus: 8.7%; Last 8.6%.
Earnings: GS +0.1%; Consensus: +0.2%; Last: -0.1%.
9:00: Dove 1 - New York Fed President William Dudley speaks at economic forum. Q&A expected.
10:20: Dove 2 - Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren on the economy.
12:40: Dove 3- Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke on the economy and housing market.
13:00: Dove 4 - Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin on community banking supervision.