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Previewing Today's Main Event And Overnight Summary

Tyler Durden's picture




 

There is only one event on pundits and traders minds today: the ECB's press conference, during which Draghi will announce nothing material, as the substance of the bank's message has been leaked, telegraphed and distributed extensively over the past three weeks before just to gauge and test the market's response as every part of this latest "plan", which is nothing but SMP-meets-Operation "Tsiwt" was being made up on the fly. And not even a weaker than expected Spanish short-term auction in which €3.5 billion in 2014-2016 bonds were sold at plunging Bids to Cover, sending yields paradoxically spiking just ahead of what the ECB should otherwise announce will be the buying sweet spot, can dent the market's hope that Draghi will pull some final detail out of his hat. Or any detail for that matter, because while the leaks have been rich in broad strokes, there has been no information on the Spanish bailout conditions, on how one can use "unlimited" and "sterilized" in the same sentence, and how the ECB can strip its seniority with impairing its current holdings of tens of billions in Greek bonds without suddenly finding itself with negative capital. Elsewhere, the Swedish central bank cut rates by 25 bps unexpectedly: after all nobody wants to be last in the global currency devaluation race. Ironically, just before this happened, the BOJ's Shirakawa said that he won't buy bonds to finance sovereign debt: but why? Everyone is doing it. Finally, in news that really matters, and not in the "how to extend a ponzi by simply diluting the purchasing power of money" category, Greek unemployment soared to 24.4% on expectations of a rise to "just" 23.5%. This means there was an increase of 1.3% in Greek unemployment in one month.

SocGen previews the main event:

All eyes on the ECB today! After much hope for several weeks and as some information has filtered over the past few days, Mr Draghi will have to deliver concrete measures today to keep from disappointing investors. A 25bp cut in the repo rate is widely anticipated. There will be even greater expectations regarding non-conventional measures, particularly the bond buying programme. These should focus on the short end (up to three years). Yesterday, the talk was about unlimited amounts and sterilisation. What is left to announce? We still need the details on conditionality and when, this will undoubtedly determine the market reaction. Overall, if Mr Draghi simply confirms the information of the past few days, EUR/USD should benefit from an extended honeymoon period. Nonetheless, we will be watching closely as investor expectations are high and Mr Draghi will have to present some fresh elements for EUR/USD to continue to strengthen towards its end-July high of 1.2755. Otherwise, profit-taking could prompt profit taking. We will also be looking at how Spain's 2/10 spread reacts.

For those who missed the key leaks from yesterday here is a summary via Deutsche Bank:

Bloomberg news yesterday suggested that Draghi's bond-buying proposal (apparently dubbed "Monetary Outright Transactions") will involve unlimited purchases of government debt targeting the front end of the curve up to 3 years but subject to ESM/EFSF conditionality. It appears that the ECB will also refrain from publicly setting yield caps and will sterilise the purchases to ensure the actions have a neutral impact on money supply. As DB rates strategist Mohit Kumar pointed out the issue of sterilisation is a bit of a red herring though given the unlimited liquidity operations already in place. Other reports also noted that the ECB is ready to concede its super senior creditor status but rate cuts will not be discussed at today's meeting. For the record the market consensus (and DB economists) is looking for a 25bp cut.

 

An update on how Draghi is dealing with the ongoing opposition from Bundesbank's Weidmann will probably get some Q&A airtime at the press conference later although German officials yesterday were quick to play down these tensions. German Finance Minister Schauble yesterday dismissed talk of a conflict between the two men. He expressed confidence that the ECB knows its mandate is to protect price stability and not to finance governments. Speaking to lawmakers yesterday, Mrs Merkel said that she backs both Draghi and Weidmann and sees no contradiction in dual support. German MP Norbert Barthle said that Merkel is against unlimited ECB bond-buying but would be willing to accept temporary intervention in the shorter dated bonds. Interestingly CDU deputy leader Fuchs reckons Draghi doesn't have too much support from Merkel but also added that Germany supports ECB bond purchases if there are certain conditionalities. Anyway the ECB's rate decision will be out at 12:45pm (London time) and get your speakers ready for Draghi's press conference at 1:30pm.

Of course, the "conditionality" will be the biggest issue: Spain will not request a bailout as long as its short-term bonds are trading artificially tight on fears of ECB intervention, leading to a Catch 22 outcome. But at least Spain was generous enough to agree to demand money... if there are no new conditions.

Spain is willing to request a full sovereign bailout but without any extra conditions, as the country is unable to finance itself at the high borrowing costs seen recently, especially with debt payments of EUR24 billion due in October, reports El Pais in its Thursday Internet edition, citing government sources.

 

Spain's Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, will try to convince German Chancellor Angela Merkel that Spain is willing to ask for the bailout as long as there aren't any tough conditions attached to it, such as having to cut pensions, adds the newspaper.

Needless to say this will not fly with Germany.

Finally, again from DB, these are the events that America slept through:

Overnight markets are trading with a cautious tone ahead of the ECB event. The Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Nikkei (-0.1%) are both lower while the ASX 200 (+0.7%) is outperforming on a mixed August labour market report in Australia. Headline unemployment fell more than expected (-8.8k v +5k) but unemployment rate was lower than expected (5.1% v 5.3%). Korean markets (+0.2%) are probably helped by statements from the Korean finance ministry that it will focus policy efforts on boosting exports and consumption. In China, rate cut expectations have returned with domestic media pointing out that two previous two PBoC rate moves in June and July have coincided with ECB/BoE meetings (a day later in June and the same day in July).

Turning to other European headlines, the WSJ reported that the Bank of Spain has made available EUR400m of loans to Spanish banks through the Emergency Liquidity Assistance program. The news follows earlier reports from the WSJ that Spanish banks are having difficulty getting funding from the ECB due to the shortage of acceptable collateral. Meanwhile, Germany issued EU3.61bn in 10-year bonds yesterday which fell short of its maximum target of EU5bn.

In terms of the day ahead, we also have BoE policy meeting today. The market is expecting no changes to interest rate and its asset purchases program. Prior to that, we will get the preliminary Eurozone Q2 GDP, French unemployment and German factory orders data. Spain's bond auction across 2014, 2015, 2016 maturities ahead of the ECB meeting will also be interesting. Spanish PM Rajoy will also host Merkel in Madrid today with a joint press conference expected at 1.30pm London time. Draghi and Schauble are also scheduled to speak at an award event tonight in Germany where Draghi will receive an annual award. In the US, the ADP employment change report will be a highlight ahead of Friday's payrolls. We also have non-manufacturing ISM and weekly jobless claims but all eyes will be on Draghi when he takes the mic later today.

 

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Thu, 09/06/2012 - 06:42 | 2767396 TwoJacks
TwoJacks's picture

what time is this non-event supoosed to go down?

 

never mind. reading comprehension.  I see it now

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 07:38 | 2767427 distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

ECB Press Conference at 8:30 and Draghi speaks again at 1230 http://www.forexlive.com/economic-calendar/

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 08:18 | 2767585 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Fire brigade just called to the ECB building in Frankfurt - picture here

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9523681/Debt-crisis-...

'Pull it'

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 06:50 | 2767399 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

New clusterfuck, same as the old clusterfuck.

WB7 needs to do Draghi in drag.  Which is what he'll be on the Euro before all is said and done.

Does anyone believe that Angela Merkin and BM Ramjoy will come to any true solutions?  Puh-lease!

When things get serious, you need to lie!  Sociopaths one and all.

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 06:46 | 2767401 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Metals running. Anyone just see Marc Faber? He was sounding batshit crazy. Andrew Ross Dorkin couldn't take it.

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 08:09 | 2767559 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

New audio podcast up today:  http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/9/6_Dr._Marc_Faber.html  

The first third of it is standard stuff.  Then Faber gets rolling.  No batshit ... just staight talk.

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 06:49 | 2767402 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

In the end it will be all about furthering the agenda of the NWO; regardless of the continuous, never ending dog and pony show.  In order to capture national sovereignty, the cartel must print, and print and print (with onerous stipulations and conditions) to gain the full totalitarian control that is required.  It will be interesting to see if the European sheeple roll over as easy as the Americans have done when confronted with extreme fascism.

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 06:57 | 2767407 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the ecb is the fed's mini-me. just as evil, but can't quite reach the ctrl-print button.

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 07:29 | 2767450 machineh
machineh's picture

... this latest "plan", which is nothing but SMP-meets-Operation "Tsiwt"

Probably Tyler meant to type 'Operation Twit.'

Or maybe 'Operation Twerp.'

Real men don't stoop to central banking.

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 08:25 | 2767603 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

LOL! +1, this is a really good one. I had more a picture in mind of the girlfriend of a gangster, all clad in black and trying to get some distance from the abusive cad that still does not give her her jewelry back since that August 15th.

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 07:04 | 2767411 Bogdog
Bogdog's picture

can kicking. again.

conditionality my ass.

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 07:08 | 2767415 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

again "it's all about the money transfers." this is simply...is it glossed over by the media? more like GLOBBED over actually as their "financial overlords tell them to make it look like sex" instead. Not when they're not broadcasting the real thing to the entire planet of course. the fact of the matter is that this is far more than a mere "balance of payments crisis" as i posted vis a vis the gold price. you see "there's the problem of when the ship rights itself" as well. call it a "snap back rally in reverse" when "the reality of non-repayment at the ECB is realized vis a vis Target 2." People staring to bitch about the "Northern yield advantage"? hahahahaha! that's a good one! "you ain't seen nothin' yet." you see "the snap back" involves...what is the word i'm looking for...is it subservience?...to the very real power of "money at a given rate"...and i ain't talkin' exchange rates. the implications are profound since "Spain ain't no rinky dink." and no...there's isn't going to be a bailout. Spain MUST exit...or be EJECTED FORCEFULLY. Italy now making claims on "German largesse" is your tell...simply not do gonna be there folks. This will then smash into Russia which is so over-leveraged to commodities it's hard to imagine that glob holding together either. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-06/gazprom-first-quarter-net-fa.... that means Mexico, Canada http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/t... and anyone else with an "all gold all the time" bent. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/09/06/uk-safrica-mines-idUKBRE88507P2.... once the US Army moves "look out below" outside of energy, the softies, transports and tech. iron ore prices have collapsed...and will fall MUCH further...hell, General Motors had to be bailed out by you folks! the collapse in the EZ is EPIC. next to Chicago i'm watching one single place on the map right now:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thessaloniki world's 5th best party City folks!

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 07:08 | 2767416 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

<-----EUR Bullish

<-----EUR Bearish

Straw poll of ZH posters

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 07:18 | 2767428 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

 

 

Draghi is speaking today

Here's what he's going to say

With bonds he will buy

PIIGS will now fly

And bond vigilantes are Gay!

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 07:19 | 2767430 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

The Criminal Elite all got the message for their secret de-coder rings last night I'd guess. They know what's coming and are possitioned to profit accordingly.  If you believe anyting else after 4 years of this on-going charade....well, I just can't help you.

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 07:23 | 2767438 JackT
JackT's picture

Greece
Unemployment rate of 55% for those up to 24 years of age.

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 07:23 | 2767439 JackT
JackT's picture

Greece
Unemployment rate of 55% for those up to 24 years of age.

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 07:28 | 2767445 Confundido
Confundido's picture

EVERYBODY THINKS THE RESOLUTION OF THE GERMAN COURT ON THE ESM ON SEP 12TH IS A DONE DEAL....Timeo danaos et dona ferentes....

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 07:28 | 2767446 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Even if no one pays their taxes, the "system" remains resilient, i.e., Greece etc.

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 07:40 | 2767474 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

In a word: Print!

Thu, 09/06/2012 - 07:42 | 2767480 chump666
chump666's picture

bad vibes.   no one is short.   looks.ready to blow

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