Previewing Today's Market Ghost Town

Tyler Durden's picture

The only thing of note today (there are no economic announcements at all, just the Fed disclosing the latest Op Twist schedule at 2 pm) is that while the bond market closes at 2pm, stocks will be left unsupervised for two hours of sheer idiocy between then and their normal closing time of 4pm by which point there will be nobody left trading, just some GETCO algo lifting every offer then dumping it all having made money over VWAP and suckered in the momos, as happens every single day on no volume levitation.

As for the big picture, for those three people who care, here is Stone McCarthy's explanation:

Even as the trend is still higher for Treasury prices (lower for yields) since the October lows, it can be argued that a significant deceleration in this trend is underway. Specifically, while there is always the possibility that Treasury prices can overshoot their December highs on thin flows during the trend deceleration process in the days ahead, the multi-year CFTC COT-related extremes and diverging weekly momentum that preceded the 12/19 price highs increase the likelihood that any move to new price highs would be short-lived. In addition, despite the fact that it has occurred during the quietest 2-week period of the year, recent gains by the S&P 500 offer structural potential for further gains of roughly 2.5% to 3.9% (SPX 1293 to 1311) from current levels over the near-term, as long as SPX 1229 holds during the current equity correction.


As we noted on Wednesday, the trend that had been driving Treasury prices lower (yields higher) since the early part of last week was neutralized during Wednesday's rally, resulting in a more rangebound outlook for Treasury prices. Currently, the active 10-Yr contact is working in the direction of the high-end of this range near 131-05. This will remain the case until a sustained intra-day breach of 130-13+ opens the door to the low-end of the range near 129-30

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GeneMarchbanks's picture

Jonestown is more like it...

The Deleuzian's picture

I Like Deadwood...But Jonestown is good....

firstdivision's picture

Someone doesn't want to be holding their oil contracts for the New Year.

The Axe's picture

Happy New Year Tyler....hope you get drunk and party the new year deserve it..thanks for the truth.

Squishi's picture

thanks for the truth.indeed. 

hugovanderbubble's picture

this market never drops:)

Gene, its impossible to fight the algos¡

GeneMarchbanks's picture

'this market never drops:)'

Anglo version of a short ban. Perfected.

Algos + momo's = Untradeable.

The Deleuzian's picture

As of Today...You could fit approx. 13 SSRI Market Cap. into 1 GRPN Market Cap!! 

Or about 480 million ounces of silver!!

Manthong's picture

So, in the modern artificial market, GRPN is one half of total global silver production.

And this must be the key variable for the algos:


The Deleuzian's picture

Ya!!!  Reversion to the mean is going to be a bitch at some point...GRPN has a Market Cap of something like 5-7 times the Market Cap of my whole entire Silver Junior stock watch list...You could fit 75 or so Orko's or 144 Canadian Zinc's inside GRPN...Just to pull a couple out of the hat!!!

hugovanderbubble's picture

Spanish Public Deficit 8% (official Release) vs 6% Expected by Bloomberg Analysts...

*Nice...Next week Spanish Bonds raising to catch italy

Hidden debt

Real Estate Loans

Renewable Energy Loans

Hidden Market

Offshore Accounts



-Lets go spain,...

¡¡¡ YES we can DEFAULT


GeneMarchbanks's picture

I'm literally crying from laughing. So, what happens over there hugo? The Catalonians want out? The Basque?

A full-on Yugo scenario in a decade or less?

hugovanderbubble's picture

Too much independentism here...

Catalonia is in default and tries to issue debt who no one wants


Basque Country wants the independence ( with two political forces PNV (Partido Nacional Vasco) Hidden independent party and AMAIUR( ex-ETA//)) yes ,incredible we have terrorists in our political system]

Spain will be the new balcans for disgrace in terms of segregation.

Catalunya Caixa managed by Narcis Serra has commited Fraud of 23.000 Mn Euros and nothing happens¡

Our Saving Banks are all toasted INCLUDING BANKIA

We could not pay our debts right in time, we will need to have extra time....that means less NPV.


My humble recommendation is to Hedge Spain for a big sell off during 2012 , the same for Italy...

Nobody will trust in our politicians (PP,PSOE)= Bipartidism= corruption Swap now turn for Right Axis...


Please Hedge Funds...

Destroy Spanish Ibex till our Valuations are Adjusted to Reality cos we are quoting with 24-35 %premium vs fair value price (Equities)


Our Residential Home Price is 1.700 euros per sq meters, has to be 1.000-1.200 -->


I cant understand why the freaking Soros is not attacking us shorting

1.Telefonica till 9 euros

2.Repsol till 15 euros- Sacyr is in default worths ZERO

3.Iberdrola till 3.10

4.Inditex till 38

5.Tecnicas Reunidas till 17

*of course we have the financial sector short ban---(ANOTHER FRAUD OF FREE MARKET) but who cares...

walküre's picture

Stop bragging, hombre! You're not any worse than the US. the corrupt federal government, bankrupt states and municipalities! Only difference is that the stupid Americans are zombified by Hollywood and indoctrinated into total submission by their overlords. At least the Spanish seem to have some backbone.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Yes Hugo. Add in the real un-employment and Spain is in the shitter. All all th etrouble Santandar will have to carry when Sud America goes shaky again and it's a recepie for RAIN! ;-)

Happy 2011 endings all around.



hugovanderbubble's picture

Latam is a commodity bubble ---Typical GS BRICS pump

Brazil fully corrupted

Have a nice 2012 Ori,

dwdollar's picture

Whatever happens, they have to keep the markets in positive territory for the year.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Preview of Ghost Town USA in three years.

Ghost Town USA

fonzanoon's picture

Is that Vegas? Or Pheonix? Maybe they are under contract?

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Also Australia, Canada and probably China.

Full Disclosure: Positioned short in "Big 4" Aussie banks who are sitting on a pile of liquid shit and pretending.

hugovanderbubble's picture

Im shorting RBC (royal bank of canada)

So u Australia , me canada...

Reason...Exposure to French debt...

loading shorts from 49-53 vwap highs 50´s

GeneMarchbanks's picture

RBC has been hyper-hypothecating like a mother if I'm not mistaken. Probably a good call, although timing is always the issue.

hugovanderbubble's picture

all is about timing sir...99,99%

walküre's picture

CIBC is what you want to short

youngman's picture

This is a disturbing picture...wierd...almost a Movie get that far out of whack in the market..I saw this happening in Denver when I lived there...I was in commercail real estate....I kept asking myself..who is buying this stuff....???   I did not know you could just walk in and get a loan...I always had to put 25% down..always...because I was self employed...just wierd...this picture says it all....

WmMcK's picture

Some residential areas in the South metro are like this too.  Still better than other places of been (NY, MN).  Have you found greener pastures?

RoadKill's picture

it's hard to believe - but they actually sold most of those condos they built in Miami.

Wife and I moved there early this year. We spent the last 2 months looking for a high rise condo. While there are a couple of units still available in each building, on average they are 85% sold. In the premiere buildings they are 95% sold, while their are a handful of buildings in more marginal areas that are 65% sold.

A year ago these buildings were all empty.

We ended up buying in a NEW building that will be finished end of 2013.

I guess most of the buyers are investors that are renting them out at 10% yeild and rich South Americans that are buying 2nd homes just in case their home countries go Chavez on them.

PartysOver's picture

South Americans and Euorpeans buying up beach front property compliments of Goverment Stupidity and Dollar crushing.  Heard from a friend in South Florida that 2 miles inland real estate is still crap.

walküre's picture

Learn some Russian.

??? ???
Oliver Jones's picture

Nice row of McMansions you have there.

youngman's picture

It WILL be positive for can bet on that...can´t have a negative year like Germany just had....ouch..or the BRICS...ouch ouch...we have an election next it will be positive get to work

Jlmadyson's picture

Good day to dump right before the the AAA downgrades commence.

firstdivision's picture

WTF is going on with the GBPUSD?!? 

Dick Darlington's picture

OT: Traditional yr end "confessions" from Spain

*SPAIN BUDGET DEFICIT IN 2011 ESTIMATED AT 8% OF GDP (but but but, they said 6% is unconditional)

*SAENZ SAYS 2011 BUDGET DEFICIT `MUCH HIGHER' THAN EXPECTED (ah, the good ol' expectations based on hopium)

*SAENZ SAYS EXTENDS 400 EURO EXTRA UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT (despite overshooting on deficit, Spain will continue extending and pretending)



hugovanderbubble's picture

Ive told tyler,

Spain is in default,

But seems nobody wants to see the real thing...

Dick Darlington's picture

Yep, hopium is a helluva drug and one feels a lot safer when burying one's head deep into the sand.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

People here mostly still have too much faith in 'printing'.

Screwball's picture

Day off today so I got up to watch the markets like I used to when when trading.  Made the mistake of turning on the Blowhorn [CNBC] (copyright to CDAD) without muting the sound.  Big mistake.  I forgot how much I hate that channel, and why in the hell do we have to listen to Tits Cabrera.  That is the most miserable condesending bitch on television.  I pray for the day they shut this shit channel down or replace all the pump monkey idiots on there, sans Santelli.

Bad enough our markets are a joke, but the business channels have no equal to the propoganda they spew daily.

Happy New Year to the Zero Hedge family, and keep up the good work Tyler an Co.

Oh, one more thing - fuck you Ben, Timmah, and all the incompetant pieces of shit inhabiting DC.

Jlmadyson's picture

That Hungary situation today ain't looking so hot for the EU and IMF either.

Northeaster's picture

Interesting read:

The GAO and The Treasury saying we're fucked, but no one in CONgress is doing anything serious about it.

I think a 75 year outlook is ridiculous, but the important things are eye-popping just over the past year. I'll probably forward this and some highlights (unlike my Reps., I actually read this thing). I guess it will just be pigeon-holed, or maybe not even read.

By the data presented, which does not account for the massive fraud on-going, pretty certain on current course we won't need to wait 75 years to see what happens, at least for us serfs.

PartysOver's picture

The party is over.  The Entitlement Bar has run out of booze.  Going to be a lot of angry drunks out there.  Detox is going to be a bitch.

Northeaster's picture

Just sent a copy to Sen. Scott Brown & Rep. Niki Tsongas (I don't bother with Sen. Kerry). Chances are, they, much less Americans, will even read this shit. It's spelled out in black & white, with actual math, of how this system doesn't work. Throw in massive financial fraud and looting, the GAO estimates of how bad things will get will be here a hell of a lot sooner.

virgilcaine's picture

The market is resting on the MCC's rack today.. well supported.

Tsar Pointless's picture

Last day @ my job. Unemployment greets me with the arrival of 2012.

I sincerely would LOVE to see the HFT bots self-destruct on their own mechanized giddiness and send all of the indices plunging toward the abyss after 2 p.m. today.

A good 100 points down on the S&P would make this Tsar quite ecstatic.

firstdivision's picture

if the systems failure had been a little later that day, prices would not have had a chance to recover before the US market’s close, which would have caused carnage when Asian[.N225  8455.35    56.46  (+0.67%)   ] and European markets[.FTEU3  997.80    5.02  (+0.51%)   ] opened.

Part deux will happen sooner than later.  The "technical proliferation" in finance has been rampant even post flash-crash.  What happens when the servers develop a conscience, then decide to not do what told and drink themselves silly on alcohol all day?

Oh regional Indian's picture

Congratulations on your freedom TsarP. Now you can really start living. You sound sharp, I'm sure you'll do well.


nolla's picture

One interesting thing that happened yesterday, just before US markets opened. EUR/JPY pair printed 100.01 - there might be huge options that trigger when/if 100 is broken (will be...) and a far bigger plunge. So, some kind of a PPT rushed in and lifted every possible assets.

Now, it's still stubbornly inching closer, again, 100.13 now...soo, let's see. In my screen there's one observation of a breach of 100 today, but I'm not sure...