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Previewing Today's Market Ghost Town

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The only thing of note today (there are no economic announcements at all, just the Fed disclosing the latest Op Twist schedule at 2 pm) is that while the bond market closes at 2pm, stocks will be left unsupervised for two hours of sheer idiocy between then and their normal closing time of 4pm by which point there will be nobody left trading, just some GETCO algo lifting every offer then dumping it all having made money over VWAP and suckered in the momos, as happens every single day on no volume levitation.

As for the big picture, for those three people who care, here is Stone McCarthy's explanation:

Even as the trend is still higher for Treasury prices (lower for yields) since the October lows, it can be argued that a significant deceleration in this trend is underway. Specifically, while there is always the possibility that Treasury prices can overshoot their December highs on thin flows during the trend deceleration process in the days ahead, the multi-year CFTC COT-related extremes and diverging weekly momentum that preceded the 12/19 price highs increase the likelihood that any move to new price highs would be short-lived. In addition, despite the fact that it has occurred during the quietest 2-week period of the year, recent gains by the S&P 500 offer structural potential for further gains of roughly 2.5% to 3.9% (SPX 1293 to 1311) from current levels over the near-term, as long as SPX 1229 holds during the current equity correction.

 

As we noted on Wednesday, the trend that had been driving Treasury prices lower (yields higher) since the early part of last week was neutralized during Wednesday's rally, resulting in a more rangebound outlook for Treasury prices. Currently, the active 10-Yr contact is working in the direction of the high-end of this range near 131-05. This will remain the case until a sustained intra-day breach of 130-13+ opens the door to the low-end of the range near 129-30

 

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Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:15 | 2021289 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Jonestown is more like it...

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:26 | 2021310 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

I Like Deadwood...But Jonestown is good....

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:21 | 2021298 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Someone doesn't want to be holding their oil contracts for the New Year.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:21 | 2021300 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Happy New Year Tyler....hope you get drunk and party the new year in...you deserve it..thanks for the truth.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:31 | 2021318 Squishi
Squishi's picture

thanks for the truth.indeed. 

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:22 | 2021303 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

this market never drops:)

Gene, its impossible to fight the algos¡

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:29 | 2021315 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'this market never drops:)'

Anglo version of a short ban. Perfected.

Algos + momo's = Untradeable.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:41 | 2021324 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

As of Today...You could fit approx. 13 SSRI Market Cap. into 1 GRPN Market Cap!! 

Or about 480 million ounces of silver!!

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:21 | 2021407 Manthong
Manthong's picture

So, in the modern artificial market, GRPN is one half of total global silver production.

And this must be the key variable for the algos:

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/are_traders_really_just_driven_by_the_sun/

 

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:26 | 2021423 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Ya!!!  Reversion to the mean is going to be a bitch at some point...GRPN has a Market Cap of something like 5-7 times the Market Cap of my whole entire Silver Junior stock watch list...You could fit 75 or so Orko's or 144 Canadian Zinc's inside GRPN...Just to pull a couple out of the hat!!!

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:48 | 2021337 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Spanish Public Deficit 8% (official Release) vs 6% Expected by Bloomberg Analysts...

*Nice...Next week Spanish Bonds raising to catch italy

Hidden debt

Real Estate Loans

Renewable Energy Loans

Hidden Market

Offshore Accounts

Fraud

*

-Lets go spain,...

¡¡¡ YES we can DEFAULT

 

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:55 | 2021352 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

I'm literally crying from laughing. So, what happens over there hugo? The Catalonians want out? The Basque?

A full-on Yugo scenario in a decade or less?

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:14 | 2021395 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Too much independentism here...

Catalonia is in default and tries to issue debt who no one wants

ALL of our "COMUNIDADES AUTONOMAS"...-SUBGOVERNMENT BONDS are in DEFAULT----( THATS THE REAL THING)

Basque Country wants the independence ( with two political forces PNV (Partido Nacional Vasco) Hidden independent party and AMAIUR( ex-ETA//)) yes ,incredible we have terrorists in our political system]

Spain will be the new balcans for disgrace in terms of segregation.

Catalunya Caixa managed by Narcis Serra has commited Fraud of 23.000 Mn Euros and nothing happens¡

Our Saving Banks are all toasted INCLUDING BANKIA

We could not pay our debts right in time, we will need to have extra time....that means less NPV.

 

My humble recommendation is to Hedge Spain for a big sell off during 2012 , the same for Italy...

Nobody will trust in our politicians (PP,PSOE)= Bipartidism= corruption Swap now turn for Right Axis...

 

Please Hedge Funds...

Destroy Spanish Ibex till our Valuations are Adjusted to Reality cos we are quoting with 24-35 %premium vs fair value price (Equities)

*

Our Residential Home Price is 1.700 euros per sq meters, has to be 1.000-1.200 -->

*

I cant understand why the freaking Soros is not attacking us shorting

1.Telefonica till 9 euros

2.Repsol till 15 euros- Sacyr is in default worths ZERO

3.Iberdrola till 3.10

4.Inditex till 38

5.Tecnicas Reunidas till 17

*of course we have the financial sector short ban---(ANOTHER FRAUD OF FREE MARKET) but who cares...

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 11:30 | 2021602 walküre
walküre's picture

Stop bragging, hombre! You're not any worse than the US. the corrupt federal government, bankrupt states and municipalities! Only difference is that the stupid Americans are zombified by Hollywood and indoctrinated into total submission by their overlords. At least the Spanish seem to have some backbone.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:09 | 2021384 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Yes Hugo. Add in the real un-employment and Spain is in the shitter. All all th etrouble Santandar will have to carry when Sud America goes shaky again and it's a recepie for RAIN! ;-)

Happy 2011 endings all around.

ori

/world/

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:23 | 2021415 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Latam is a commodity bubble ---Typical GS BRICS pump

Brazil fully corrupted

Have a nice 2012 Ori,

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:25 | 2021308 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Whatever happens, they have to keep the markets in positive territory for the year.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:29 | 2021311 Cognitive Dissonance
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Preview of Ghost Town USA in three years.

Ghost Town USA

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:32 | 2021320 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

Is that Vegas? Or Pheonix? Maybe they are under contract?

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:32 | 2021321 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Also Australia, Canada and probably China.

Full Disclosure: Positioned short in "Big 4" Aussie banks who are sitting on a pile of liquid shit and pretending.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:51 | 2021340 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Im shorting RBC (royal bank of canada)

So u Australia , me canada...

Reason...Exposure to French debt...

loading shorts from 49-53 vwap highs 50´s

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:00 | 2021360 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

RBC has been hyper-hypothecating like a mother if I'm not mistaken. Probably a good call, although timing is always the issue.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:16 | 2021402 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

all is about timing sir...99,99%

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 11:32 | 2021604 walküre
walküre's picture

CIBC is what you want to short

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:39 | 2021326 youngman
youngman's picture

This is a disturbing picture...wierd...almost a Movie set...to get that far out of whack in the market..I saw this happening in Denver when I lived there...I was in commercail real estate....I kept asking myself..who is buying this stuff....???   I did not know you could just walk in and get a loan...I always had to put 25% down..always...because I was self employed...just wierd...this picture says it all....

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:46 | 2021334 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Some residential areas in the South metro are like this too.  Still better than other places of been (NY, MN).  Have you found greener pastures?

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:03 | 2021368 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

it's hard to believe - but they actually sold most of those condos they built in Miami.

Wife and I moved there early this year. We spent the last 2 months looking for a high rise condo. While there are a couple of units still available in each building, on average they are 85% sold. In the premiere buildings they are 95% sold, while their are a handful of buildings in more marginal areas that are 65% sold.

A year ago these buildings were all empty.

We ended up buying in a NEW building that will be finished end of 2013.

I guess most of the buyers are investors that are renting them out at 10% yeild and rich South Americans that are buying 2nd homes just in case their home countries go Chavez on them.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:20 | 2021409 newstreet
newstreet's picture

Same here in Naples. 

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:30 | 2021428 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

South Americans and Euorpeans buying up beach front property compliments of Goverment Stupidity and Dollar crushing.  Heard from a friend in South Florida that 2 miles inland real estate is still crap.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 11:34 | 2021608 walküre
walküre's picture

Learn some Russian.

??? ???
Fri, 12/30/2011 - 11:36 | 2021616 Oliver Jones
Oliver Jones's picture

Nice row of McMansions you have there.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:29 | 2021316 youngman
youngman's picture

It WILL be positive for today...you can bet on that...can´t have a negative year like Germany just had....ouch..or the BRICS...ouch ouch...we have an election next year...so it will be positive damit..now get to work

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:30 | 2021317 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Good day to dump right before the the AAA downgrades commence.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:45 | 2021332 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

WTF is going on with the GBPUSD?!? 

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:47 | 2021335 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

OT: Traditional yr end "confessions" from Spain

*SPAIN BUDGET DEFICIT IN 2011 ESTIMATED AT 8% OF GDP (but but but, they said 6% is unconditional)

*SAENZ SAYS 2011 BUDGET DEFICIT `MUCH HIGHER' THAN EXPECTED (ah, the good ol' expectations based on hopium)

*SAENZ SAYS EXTENDS 400 EURO EXTRA UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT (despite overshooting on deficit, Spain will continue extending and pretending)

 

 

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:52 | 2021345 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Ive told tyler,

Spain is in default,

But seems nobody wants to see the real thing...

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:55 | 2021351 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Yep, hopium is a helluva drug and one feels a lot safer when burying one's head deep into the sand.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:58 | 2021357 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

People here mostly still have too much faith in 'printing'.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:50 | 2021344 Screwball
Screwball's picture

Day off today so I got up to watch the markets like I used to when when trading.  Made the mistake of turning on the Blowhorn [CNBC] (copyright to CDAD) without muting the sound.  Big mistake.  I forgot how much I hate that channel, and why in the hell do we have to listen to Tits Cabrera.  That is the most miserable condesending bitch on television.  I pray for the day they shut this shit channel down or replace all the pump monkey idiots on there, sans Santelli.

Bad enough our markets are a joke, but the business channels have no equal to the propoganda they spew daily.

Happy New Year to the Zero Hedge family, and keep up the good work Tyler an Co.

Oh, one more thing - fuck you Ben, Timmah, and all the incompetant pieces of shit inhabiting DC.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:53 | 2021347 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

That Hungary situation today ain't looking so hot for the EU and IMF either.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:57 | 2021349 Northeaster
Northeaster's picture

Interesting read:

http://fms.treas.gov/fr/11frusg/11frusg.pdf

The GAO and The Treasury saying we're fucked, but no one in CONgress is doing anything serious about it.

I think a 75 year outlook is ridiculous, but the important things are eye-popping just over the past year. I'll probably forward this and some highlights (unlike my Reps., I actually read this thing). I guess it will just be pigeon-holed, or maybe not even read.

By the data presented, which does not account for the massive fraud on-going, pretty certain on current course we won't need to wait 75 years to see what happens, at least for us serfs.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:43 | 2021437 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

The party is over.  The Entitlement Bar has run out of booze.  Going to be a lot of angry drunks out there.  Detox is going to be a bitch.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 11:36 | 2021614 Northeaster
Northeaster's picture

Just sent a copy to Sen. Scott Brown & Rep. Niki Tsongas (I don't bother with Sen. Kerry). Chances are, they, much less Americans, will even read this shit. It's spelled out in black & white, with actual math, of how this system doesn't work. Throw in massive financial fraud and looting, the GAO estimates of how bad things will get will be here a hell of a lot sooner.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 09:54 | 2021350 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

The market is resting on the MCC's rack today.. well supported.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:00 | 2021354 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Last day @ my job. Unemployment greets me with the arrival of 2012.

I sincerely would LOVE to see the HFT bots self-destruct on their own mechanized giddiness and send all of the indices plunging toward the abyss after 2 p.m. today.

A good 100 points down on the S&P would make this Tsar quite ecstatic.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:00 | 2021362 Irish66
Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:16 | 2021401 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

if the systems failure had been a little later that day, prices would not have had a chance to recover before the US market’s close, which would have caused carnage when Asian[.N225  8455.35    56.46  (+0.67%)   ] and European markets[.FTEU3  997.80    5.02  (+0.51%)   ] opened.

Part deux will happen sooner than later.  The "technical proliferation" in finance has been rampant even post flash-crash.  What happens when the servers develop a conscience, then decide to not do what told and drink themselves silly on alcohol all day?

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:19 | 2021406 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Congratulations on your freedom TsarP. Now you can really start living. You sound sharp, I'm sure you'll do well.

ori

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:43 | 2021465 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Thanks, ORI.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:01 | 2021361 nolla
nolla's picture

One interesting thing that happened yesterday, just before US markets opened. EUR/JPY pair printed 100.01 - there might be huge options that trigger when/if 100 is broken (will be...) and a far bigger plunge. So, some kind of a PPT rushed in and lifted every possible assets.

Now, it's still stubbornly inching closer, again, 100.13 now...soo, let's see. In my screen there's one observation of a breach of 100 today, but I'm not sure...

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:03 | 2021366 Elmer Fudd
Elmer Fudd's picture

Tried to look it up online, but didnt find a decent definition, so what does MOMO stand for or mean in ZH?

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:09 | 2021385 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

I always thought it meant Momentum (chase em' up) Dogshit stocks that are synthetically kept up by the Darkside...But that's me!!

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:13 | 2021391 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Momentum monkey(s)

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:25 | 2021420 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

It's very common terminology on "the Street" (not just ZH). Essentially refers to momentum traders

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 10:17 | 2021403 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Only a few points needed 6-7 to get the S&P negative for the Yr.! What's Cabrerra wearing today?

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 11:01 | 2021511 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

You can already see the constant grind / overbidding going on.  Of course, REITS just higher and higher and higher.

What exact time will they really grip it and yank the shit out of it higher?  I suspect right at 11:30am.  Then just drift into the close.

Who wants the over/under on it?

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 11:04 | 2021520 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

S&P positive....Jesus Christ. 

LMFAO...ain't no off position on the 'fuck the shorts' switchs.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 11:13 | 2021559 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

No off button for the roaring tens (decade). Everything is prosperous and all is well in the social/fiscal/political front = market upwards.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 11:06 | 2021527 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

DOW positive....

Now let's just JACK THE SHIT out of it!

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 11:21 | 2021582 Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

It will be Tuesday before people can do anything about what they missed while they were distracted by the noise and commotion of New Year's. The world certainly changed for the worse, in 2011. But we'll leave the new year to it's own trouble. We will come back to see who's being downgraded, who's lining up at the Fed to get some more funny money, and we always have political intrigue and scandal. Catch your breath and rest. We're going to need it.

http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 11:29 | 2021598 i love cholas
i love cholas's picture

Happy New Year Zerohedge and same to fellow readers.

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 13:46 | 2021979 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Here is my bond, mortgage and housing market 2011 review.

2011: A Year In Review For Bonds And Mortgages – Treasuries Big Winner, Europe Big Loser, U.S. Housing Flat-lined

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2011/12/30/2011-a-year-in-review...

Fri, 12/30/2011 - 14:15 | 2022047 merchantratereview
merchantratereview's picture

If EU cant close above 1.3000 and EJ cant close above 100.00 perhaps ALL HELL IS READY TO BREAK LOOSE!

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