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Previewing Today's Market Moving Economic News - The NFP Report
In 20 minutes we will get the only market moving piece of news, which many hope will bring back volatility to the market. Or it might not. As Goldman says, 'nonfarm payroll growth should slow on seasonal and weather-related factors'
8:30: Employment Report (January): Slower payroll growth; lots of technical factors. Despite better signs in a number of labor market indicators, we forecast that payroll employment growth slowed to +125k in January from +200k in December. The deceleration largely reflects less of a weather-related boost (weather remains milder than usual, but not much more so than in December) and a reversal of positive seasonal adjustment distortions in the December survey (last month the category of “couriers and messengers” was boosted by 42k on temporary hiring for package delivery persons during the holidays; this increase is likely to be reversed in the January report). Even with slightly slower payroll growth, we still think the unemployment rate should fall to 8.4% from 8.5%, although this is a close call.
Today’s report will also include annual benchmark revisions to both the payroll and household surveys. In the payroll survey, the BLS we realign the level of employment with unemployment insurance records. In September 2011, the BLS estimated that this would add 192k to the level of employment. Today’s final announcement should be close to that figure. Historical data will also be revised for new seasonal adjustment factors and updates to the “birth/death” model. Separately, the household survey will be adjusted for new “population controls” incorporating data from the 2010 Census (essentially these are the scaling factors used to translate the monthly survey into a national estimate). These revisions mean that the raw change in household employment will have virtually no meaning. The BLS will report adjusted household employment estimates which remove the effect of revised population controls, and investors should focus on these figures.
Payrolls: GS: +125k; Consensus: +140k; Last +200k.
Unemployment: GS 8.4%; Consensus: 8.5%; Last 8.5%.
Earnings: GS +0.2%; Consensus: +0.2%; Last: +0.2%.
10:00: ISM non-manufacturing index (January): Little changed. Goldman forecasts that the ISM non-manufacturing index was unchanged at 53.0 in January. At its current level, the non-manufacturing ISM is consistent with GDP growth of about 1.5-2.0%.
GS: 53.0; Consensus: 53.2; Last 52.6.
10:00: Factory orders (December): Q4 GDP revisions? The already-released durable goods report suggests that total factory orders likely increased in December—we forecast a gain of 1.5% month-over-month. Revisions to durable goods shipments or news on inventories could imply revisions to Q4 GDP growth.
GS: +1.5%; Consensus: +1.5%; Last +1.8%.
from Goldman Sachs
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if Art cashin is right add on the courier data it should be a big miss on employment
What happens to the stock market if Obomacare is overturned and Mitt Romney looks to be the next president?
Absolutely nothing.
It's all about liquidity and new market participants entering. If the at least 2 of big 5 are not dead (let's say BAC and C), nothing matters. They're holding the country hostage.
Well, since Romney is the red team Wall St. candidate, I'm guessing it would go up.
ETA: Obamacare is a gift to insurance agencies, but it's not like they were struggling before it was passed. Its repeal would not move the market IMO.
thats negative thinking, we will rally into the stratosphere since more money printing assured for self distruction.
Again, primary dealers=plunge protection team will get the printed money first and let's assume they buy stocks. But.............nobody to sell them to. No more suckers.
Yup. I think that's what the market underestimates - no more suckers. Few shorts. Many hedge funds made their year just in January - they are not to likely to lose it defending 1325.
I heard it was going to beat by 20,000 jobs.... and then be revised 30,000 jobs lower next week...
Thats how it works now, and nothing else matters...not 'who's the puppet' not who wins a football game, or any of that crap. Stocks will fall when its the most benefit to bankers and thats it.
Oh come on Tylers.
There's no news that actually matters any more. Nobody is trading except for primary dealers = plunge protection team. I think they're stuck with a lot of rotten stocks in their hands and bid the price to high. The usual suckers of the past are no longer idiots. Your NYSE volume graph yesterday told the whole truth.
The game is 'keep 401K and pension holders calm as Hindu cows not suspecting a thing till slaughter time'.
Weather related?...maybe in Alaska, otherwise it has been very mild.
True, except for our blizzard across the plains last nite....WHAT 'weather'?
Goebbels would be proud. "Steady," "low," the appearance of stability. When this charade ends I'm going to punch anyone who says, "no one could have seen this coming," square in the face.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/03/us-usa-economy-jobs-idUSTRE80T07120120203
The only real number of interest out of this report is how many are leaving the job market all together. Long term unemployed. The participation decline is future poverty and is very telling of the current policies.
Spot on. All those people falling off unemployment rolls aren't doing so because they found jobs. Starvation is a helluva future indicator.
Moreover, they will decide about the numbers while drinking moonshine, basically right now. It's all so stale I'm pushing myself to even type up about this idiotic kind of data that nobody believes any longer.
What is the Food Stamp number.....
I told you. See.
No QE3 until March 20.
massive beat...
the joy of flexible government statistics in all it's glory.