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Looking Ahead To Today's Noisy Non-Farm Payroll Number
Here is what Wall Street expects will be announced at 8:30 am Eastern today:
| Barclays Capital | +150K |
| Deutsche Bank | +175K |
| Goldman Sachs | +125K |
| JP Morgan | +145K |
| UBS | +170K |
| Morgan Stanley | +130K |
| HSBC | +170K |
| Bank of America | +155K |
And while as usual the actual number will be largely meaningless, and is merely an indication of our headline chasing nature since as the BLS itself says the error interval is +/- 100,000, a few hnndred purely statistical jobs will make or break the market and send it soaring on either "virtuous circle" expectations, or on NEW QE coming back with a bang.
Here is the broad consensus, as summarized by RanSquawk:
Unemployment Rate M/M (Apr) Exp. 8.2% (Prev. 8.2%, Feb 8.3%)
In terms of recent data, Wednesday’s ADP employment change was a sharp miss on the street estimates, however, the correlation over the last twelve months has seen ADP outperform NFP on six occasions and underperform on six, offering little correlation. The latest Initial Jobless Claims showed the biggest drop since May 2011 yesterday; however the trend for the past month has seen consistent figures averaging 379K, a large increase on the previous month’s average of 354K. The employment constituents for Philadelphia Fed and Empire manufacturing were both stronger than last month’s data and the ISM Manufacturing constituent was the highest since June 2011, although the ISM Non-Manufacturing employment constituent was slightly down on February’s data. The potential influence of warmer winter weather on the Q1 employment figures saw a strong start to the year, it is widely expected for the impact of warmer weather on the data to decline in the coming months.
The current consensus range (+89-210K) for today’s report is somewhat wider than last month, with the bulk of estimates lying between +150-175K; overall NFP for April is expected to register a slender improvement on March’s figure, eyes will also be fixed on revisions to last month’s figures. The unemployment rate is widely expected to be in-line at 8.2% (range 8.1%-8.3%), with an even balance from analysts expecting a decrease or increase of 0.1% on the headline data. A large decline in the unemployment rate is unlikely as analysts are widely expecting the labour participation rate to stabilise during the next few months after the large declines seen at the end of 2011.
In terms of market reaction a reading below 120K and any downward revisions to March’s figure, will likely be seized upon by market bears and consequently a move higher in T-Notes. Any fast money move lower in equities could be retraced as a disappointing reading could lead to speculation the Fed may conduct further easing following comments from the FOMC that further stimulus would only be required if there is a decline in the economy. A reading over 200K would give cheer to investors that the US labour market will continue to improve in 2012 and could see an initial spike to the upside in the equity markets following the release
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Praying for a recession this Fall/Winter, got some stocks I want to buy on sale. We all become the thing we hated the most, don't we?
"We all become the thing we hated the most, don't we?"
If that were true, I'd be Richard Simmons and out shopping for short shorts...
So, what exactly breaks the "heads I win, tails you lose" market? Reality seems to have zero effect...
The market will break when it's algo-driving and politically-motivated owners decide a correction is in their interests. Or possibly a tsunami-like true black swan event would do it. Goldman traded positive every day before the tsunami but lost it when an act of God changed things. We're getting a lot of 'sell in May' MSM agitprop from the MSM so we may be getting prepped for the correction. I'm looking for a pop today to set my pre-selloff positions but won't be surprised if they stop out. They can't keep the balls in the air forever but thay can do it a lot longer than we suppose.
This insane fixation on a number that may be off by 100,000 is indicative of a controlled economy - dominated only by the Fed and not by free market forces.
It's a corrupt, captured economy - no wonder Jim Grant calls the Fed the ultimate vampire squid - it has sucked out all the life blood from the free economy. We all bow and pray to the Fed now.
Hypothetical employment. "Stop it Benny! You're killin' me"!
Look at the big picture - the trend is down: http://i49.tinypic.com/b3kk8w.png
dont put too much trust in this curvilinear method, especially for a chart with 100% manipulated data
Everyone expects this number to be awful. So I think it will print high. Remember, it's an election year. I say +200 k then revised down next month when no one is looking
Couple those low expectations with the last two days of unusual selloffs and it does look like a trap for those bears that jumped in early. I'm guessing in the coming days we will see today's (conjectured) pop as an event to drive down out the bears right before the real event. They can make money on the way down as well and they don't like sharing it.
i agree. seems like a lot of traders have jumped in on the short side. but there is no more significant volume to the downside and vxx looks like its about to break support. i could be wrong, but this seems like the perfect bear trap
For real... seems the only sure play these days is volatility. Some big algo is even doing a market-ratling dress rehearsal:
http://www.nxcoreapi.com/aqck/3271.html
Could be the same player who put a mega bet on DJX Vega yesterday...
http://www.istockanalyst.com/finance/story/5819896/vega-trade-on-djx-see...
CNBC has an employment report countdown timer. I can't believe it. It's a GOVERNMENT report, during election season. It will be a non-event.
It is truly a beautiful set up:
1) Low number market ramps on more QE hopes
2) High number means things are really getting better
Welcome to the worlds first Centrally Planned Marketplace where it is Heads You Win & Tails You Win!!!
How many of the jobs are make work or worse....destructive to economic activity ! 4,000 new IRS agents to monitor Obamacare compliance isn't helpful ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Socialist Circle Sex
I want to win a HAT!!!! U16? guess??
How do they come up with these numbers? An office pool or a monkey with a calculator?
Monkey with a calculator may be to honest.
I imagine they either have a giant roulette wheel or otherwise they get out the dartboard have a couple of swiggs of hooch and start a'flogging
All the hype about the one per cent....deflects attention from the truly angst free privileged....government workers and their entitlement wards ! The jack boot on our neck....is government issue ! Monedas 1929 High Pay Government Ponzi Suck for "THEM"....7 Eleven graveyard shifts for us !
The odds for this round number of +-100 000 being accurate are pretty low..
I used to work for a company that made national surveys about various things. The surveys had 30-40 pages and the response rate was AT BEST around 70%, and those were people who were INTERESTED in taking part and promised to answer. The weren't required to answer all of the questions either.
I'd like to get some in depth data about the way this BLS survey is done. It would give better grasp on how inaccurate the BLS data is.
Are they casual liars....or chronic, pathological, crimminal liars ? Monedas 1929 You know what I think !
The TSA agents are better paid than the families they grope and molest ! Grandmothers and WWII Grandfathers....who've lost their homes and 401Ks and savings....get especially rude treatment ! Monedas 1929 Where's the "Zimmerman" perp walk for BO's boys ?
The number is totally irrelevant and unrelated to real people