This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Preview Of Today's Key Events: Chicago PMI And Case Shiller

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Busy day for headline chasers (which these days is everyone) with the ISM-leading Chicago PMI taking center stage at 9:45 am. At some point the economy will have to start 'confirming' the Bernanke Bear case or else one may get the impression that the Chairman was merely posturing with providing a perpetual LSAP open backstop to the Russell 2000. Also, the Case Shiller index which will report the 7th consecutive home price drop will likely not get a whole lot of attention.

 

8:30: Employment cost index (Q4): Moderate wage growth. Forecast agrees that growth in the Employment Cost Index (ECI) picked up from 0.3% (qoq, not annualized) in 2011Q3 to 0.5% in Q4.
GS: +0.5%; Consensus: +0.4%; Last: +0.3%.

9:00: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (Nov): Down. Asking prices point to another decline in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-city index during November.
GS -0.4%; Consensus: -0.5%; Last -0.6%.

9:45: Chicago purchasing managers’ index (January). Small decline? The Chicago purchasing managers’ index remains elevated compared to the other regional manufacturing surveys, and Goldman expects a small decline this month.
GS: 61.0; Consensus: 63.0; Last: 62.2.

10:00: Conference Board confidence index (January): Further improvement. Reported strength in the University of Michigan’s sentiment index points to another gain in the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence. The consensus forecast is for an increase to 68 from 64.5.
GS: 70.0; Consensus: 68.0; Last: 64.5.

From GS

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 01/31/2012 - 09:14 | 2112276 mattu13048
mattu13048's picture

BTFD, dude!

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 09:28 | 2112296 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Gentlement start your engine: Wave 5 to ES 1350 will soon begin.   All crashes have  been postponed until after the SuperBowl.   

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 09:15 | 2112277 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"Busy day for headline chasers (which these days is everyone)"

Which these days is every day.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 09:40 | 2112333 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, and of course all headlines are 'good news' of course.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 10:33 | 2112541 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Because all the bad news is priced in.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 09:21 | 2112282 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

This is getting crazy :

A civil war in Russia is the LAST THING we want...

http://www.kurat.com/links/-russian-protests-may-turn-into-civil-war-bil...

Moscow, Jan 31 : The stand-off between Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and anti-government protesters may escalate into a civil war, billionaire presidential candidate Mikhail Prokhorov has said. The businessman, whose fortune is estimated at USD 18 billion, urged "evolution, not revolution" and promised sweeping political and economic reforms if he wins the vote.

Many pro-Kremlin pundits have warned the rallies are a preparation for an "Orange revolution" scenario of removing the ruling establishment through street protests.

 

And more WARdware to the Persian Gulf.

http://rt.com/news/us-submarine-passes-suez-115/

Destination Persian Gulf? US nuclear sub and destroyer enter Red Sea

Two ships of the US Navy, the nuclear submarine USS Annapolis and the destroyer USS Momsen have passed through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea. Although their destination is confidential, they are now getting dangerously close to the Persian Gulf.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 09:24 | 2112287 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I understood that Prohorov is the new equivalent of Medeyev - a pro forma contender

don't see a civil war happening soon in Russia

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 09:25 | 2112290 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Medvedev is basically Putin's puppet. Prohorov is not. At all.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 09:30 | 2112299 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you might be right, I'll stay skeptical for a while

all surviving russian oligarchs have, as far as I know, ties to the current Kremlin team - the others are either dead or imprisoned

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 09:33 | 2112305 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The guy isn't a sellout apparently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Prokhorov

In May, 2011, Prokhorov announced a plan to join the leadership of the Russian pro-business political party Right Cause. While not antagonistic to the Kremlin, the party was seen as likely to support President Dmitry Medvedev rather than Prime Minister Vladimir Putin if the latter entered the 2012 presidential race. In June, Prokhorov was elected to the leadership of the party at the Right Cause Party Congress of 2011. At the acceptance ceremony, Prokhorov officially criticized the present ruling tandem of Medvedev-Putin, the structure of Russia, and vowed to bring Russia back to a stable development course.[19] However, in September, Prokhorov reversed course and resigned from Right Cause, "condemning it as a 'puppet Kremlin party' micromanaged by a 'puppet master' in the president’s office ..., Vladislav Y. Surkov". [20]

In December 2011, after the legislative elections, Prokhorov announced that he would contest the 2012 presidential election against Vladimir Putin as an independent.[21] Prokhorov called it at the time "probably[22] the most important decision of my life."[21]

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 09:45 | 2112352 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Whatever we want to say about Putin the fact is Russia is regaining its lost position in the world politics. They grow fast and of course all those "Soros" guys there want to get part of it. Prokhorow or anybody else is different than Mitt or Ging? Why so much attention on opposition in Russia, you have your own problems, don't you?

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 09:23 | 2112285 resurger
resurger's picture

Any news whether the FB IPO prices @ min 75bn is cheap!

 

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 10:00 | 2112293 Tortuga
Tortuga's picture

You forgot the ISDA credit event about to happen today, per Jim Sinclair interview over on his website. Per JS, the 5 biggest US banks; that own 97% of the cds', will take a 30%  haircut today on the cds' and be declared not insolvent because this is not a "credit event", but a realignment, similar to the circumstances that corzoni used to steal the funds of  Mo'F'ingGlobal. Got au folks!                                                          0753 ct. Well, they took the interview away. JS said it will be back this evening and that the isda decision will be in a couple days. Go figure? Good, give me some time to add to the stack.  Dammit, the interview is back, 0758 ct. Aaaah, the amazing versatility of the www. Au jumped up a little early, hope that doesn't mean the HFT's will target the pm stocks for risk off today.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 09:32 | 2112301 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

More made up news.  Believe no reports from this group.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 09:35 | 2112313 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -22 @ 680

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 09:38 | 2112320 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Record low 663, which should be taken out tomorrow.

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 09:59 | 2112393 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

I did this a couple of days ago, comparing Case Shiller with FN which comes out a week earlier.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/27/a-preview-of-the-case-shiller-home-price-index-for-tuesday-down-1/

Zillow says down -0.2% MoM, my model say -0.1% MoM. 

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 10:02 | 2112405 Tortuga
Tortuga's picture

Is your model a blonde?

Tue, 01/31/2012 - 10:00 | 2112401 quacker
quacker's picture

Only one key event today, it's Voting Tuesday, thus the markets must be pumped up. No way on a day people could actually go to the polls and register support for Ron Paul that they'll let the market go down - might remind people of '08 - '09.

Imagine a 300-400 point drop in the Dow on a day people could register support for RP! Even a 50 point, or 25 point - not gonna happen.

They want all smiley faces so the sheeple will vote Twitt.

Look for big profit taking April - July. This will be a safe zone - The Twitt will have it all sewn up but still early enough to pump it back up in late Summer and Fall to help Obama.

This is Voting Tuesday #4, and the 4th Voting Tuesday the markets are up. Coincidence? No way - the order is:

1) Help Twitt now (pump Dow up to at least 13.5k by April)

2) Take profits April - July (Dow down to about 9.5k by end of July)

3) Pump back up for Obama (Dow up over 13k by November 1)

I think this is exactly how it will be played - first pump up the Twitt, then destroy the Twitt and pump up the Kenyan. Look for a surging market and Mormonism to sudenly become fair game in the Fall. The news media will suddenly discover that Joe Smith taught that American Indians came into being as a curse by God, and boatloads of other Joe Smith lunacy will start appearing all over the media once the Twitt has the nomination sewn up, mark me.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!