Print, Rally, Then What?

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Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:32 | 1886379 spiral_eyes
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print, rally, then slump, then print some more, then rally, then...

in the end, saving zombie institutes begets a zombie economy with elevated unemployment and no growth. japan, and now america are empirical evidence of that.

http://azizonomics.com/2011/11/15/zombie-economics/

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:34 | 1886388 SGS
SGS's picture

Bankers dont get bonuses with write downs.  They will print.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:36 | 1886396 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

then europe will zombify.

the key difference is that moreso than america and unlike japan, europe is a tinder-box of discontent, nationalism and old rivalries ready to explode.

the euro was the worst idea since making germany pay all those war reparations.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:48 | 1886449 GeneMarchbanks
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'then europe will zombify' doesn't really match up with:

'the key difference is that moreso than america and unlike japan, europe is a tinder-box of discontent, nationalism and old rivalries ready to explode.'

We've 'zombified' years ago now it's the snapback that's next.

Yeah, deglobalization's a bitch.


Thu, 11/17/2011 - 11:04 | 1886816 Fukushima Sam
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We've already started printing, so we will continue to print until inflation is so bad it seizes-up the gears of commerce.  It is inevitable.  The only question is timing and the amount of hand-wringing along the way.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:07 | 1886529 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

 

 

We've entered the "print or die" phase

Which creates an unsolvable maze

All truth will be spin

Until Kleptocrats win

The collapse may be measured in days

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:34 | 1886381 GeneMarchbanks
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'Before taking the step to print, all that I can hope for is that someone will actually do some serious analysis of the potential consequences, beyond the immediate relief rally.  We need to make a decision based on the risk/rewards of the various steps we can take.  We need to give MORE weight to the longer term than the shorter term.  Too much that has been done to avoid short term pain, has led to bigger problems down the road – and not as far down the road as initially thought.  On Greece I was quite certain that default would have been better.  On EFSF I was completely certain it wouldn’t work in the way they said it would.  On printing, my gut feel is that it will actually turn out far worse than people expect, but I’m not convinced.  I am open to the idea that it could work, in spite of my concerns, maybe the arguments are persuasive, but we need to have those arguments.  We need to realistically look at potential outcomes of printing, including the bad ones, and see if they can be mitigated.  It may be the best solution, but until I see some real analysis convincing me the consequences of printing have been thought out, I will remain in the camp that letting some defaults, break-ups, write-downs, is the best longer term solution in spite of short term pain.'

You do comedy now? Well, good for you.

Hank P 2.0 ... only different continent same empire.


Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:45 | 1886432 spanish inquisition
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"But we want to finish the new world order NOW! If we allow stuff to default, we will have to rebuild and never see it in our lifetime." - Coalition of all groups united, living and dead to secure our place on top of the heap for at least, say 1000 years?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:33 | 1886383 fonzanoon
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They will print

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:40 | 1886406 SWRichmond
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We don’t know what would have happened had Greece been allowed to default, but we do KNOW that not letting Greece default HAS lead to disaster and contagion.

One-line illustration of the problem of managed economies: the managers can't do "nothing," as that would reveal their incompetence, and the fallacy of the managed-economy model.  So, they will keep doing "something" until it all blows up. 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:50 | 1886461 i-dog
i-dog's picture

I still have this picture in my mind of monkeys loose in the control room ... pulling levers and turning knobs ... and chattering excitedly to each other ... while the pressure gauges just continue to climb well into the red....

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:21 | 1886583 Mike2756
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They'll probably print just enough to cap rates along with writedowns and austerity. Might be enough to keep things stumbling along.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:33 | 1886384 Global Hunter
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Liesman just said that 388k initial claims is positive and shows payroll growth in the US so rally on

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:36 | 1886397 Josh Randall
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It's hard for him to talk this early usually when he's on jelly donut number 29 -- are you sure thats what he said ?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:42 | 1886413 Global Hunter
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he definately used the phrase "payroll growth in the US" and he might have said "mildly positive" rather than positive or "more positive" but yes that's pretty much what I heard.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:41 | 1886411 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Are these numbers better than expected?  Yes, even unadjusted numbers fell.  Does it mean all is well and rally on?  Nope, not even close.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:43 | 1886427 Global Hunter
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I didn't put my sarc button on

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:55 | 1886484 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Apologies, my sarc detector batteries need recharged.  Now in process *shot of vodka*

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:33 | 1886387 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Billy Miller...out on the porch.....Legg Mason has had enough.....long tee times

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:36 | 1886389 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

lol.. Does anyone else notice a German BDSM thematic to this whole crisis.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:35 | 1886390 cossack55
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To print or not to print? That is the question. Weather tis nobler to spread the ink and save the corrupt and criminal bankers and screw the people...... sorry. The Bard always gets me going.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:35 | 1886391 Carlyle Groupie
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"I will remain in the camp that letting some defaults, break-ups, write-downs, is the best longer term solution in spite of short term pain."

These logical conclusions have no place in our current reality. It's called The American Dream for a reason.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:36 | 1886395 GoldBricker
GoldBricker's picture

Be contrarians, bitches!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:37 | 1886398 equity_momo
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The Germans reluctance to allow the ECB to print is the last hurdle preventing Gold from making its moonshot. It will make its moonshot eventually but ECB printing will be the trigger for a disorderly unwind of all paper. The Germans are about the only sane people left in the Western World. Alanis Morrisette had a song about that.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:48 | 1886452 Iam_Silverman
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"The Germans reluctance to allow the ECB to print is the last hurdle"

This is the corner that Angela Merkel has deliberately painted herself into.  If they are the lone country dissenting to Euro QE, then that sets the stage for them to politely withdraw from the EMU and go on their merry way.  As long as they maintain this stance, they will be setting the stage for them to be "excused" from the EMU - thus all parties save face, the Germans keep their economy intact, and the rest circle the drain (even though they won't admit/notice it).

 

Well played, Sir Angela, well played!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:08 | 1886531 reload
reload's picture

Definately - that may be a possibility.

I am pondering what the oucome of that would be.

I get to - new German DM - very strong, enabling a massive bail out/ re capitalisation of German Banks.

Printing of Euros for the weak euro nations - all of them. Euro gets toasted and Germany looks east to old Mother Russia and ex USSR (Ukrain etc) countries for export demand and energy security.

It could work for Germany, but I am not convinced they have the strength of character.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:52 | 1886470 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

The Germans may be disciplined, but like China they have been enjoying their surpluses regardless of the effect on the rest of the system. It looks like all those surpluses wil now amount to a big fat zero.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:57 | 1886492 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Depends who owns the gold and the industry. Theres always a need for industry , especially with a likely war effort coming. German companies will remain relatively competitive no matter what.

China have little to feel good about. Just alot of paper and peasants and plastic. Unless they invade Russia for her oil and gas the only real advantage China has on the World is its rare earths.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:40 | 1886400 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Then what...Food Stamps at Taco Bell/Pizza Hut!!!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:40 | 1886407 El Viejo
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Soon, all restaurants will be Taco Bell.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 11:07 | 1886831 Willzyx
Willzyx's picture

seashells??

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:38 | 1886401 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

You left out Collapse.

Collapse, Print, Rally, Then What?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:46 | 1886441 Carlyle Groupie
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Collapse, Print, Rally, Then What?

Corpse.

Collapse, Print, Rally, Corpse.

“Once we squeeze all we can out of the United States, it can dry up and blow away.” — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 2002.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:55 | 1886485 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

This is a serious quote. What is the source?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:41 | 1886696 i-dog
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It never ceases to amaze me how some people have no idea that google is used for searching! WTF do they normally use it for!?!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:38 | 1886403 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

we may have a rally ...after all...

http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:39 | 1886404 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

less loss is positive only in 3 places, Crap, Nothing But Crap, and FED speak, and the 535 during erection [sp]year

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:41 | 1886412 Caveman93
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Print, Rally, ThenPrint, Rally, ThenPrint, Rally, ThenPrint, Rally, ThenPrint, Rally, Then...

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:43 | 1886428 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Printing will not solve the problems we face, but it will at least hasten the end game.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:48 | 1886437 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

let creative destruction happen.. Stop propping up failed banks, which prop up failed structures & inefficent enterprises.  Let the capital flow to credible, innovative start ups (not Groupon/web 2.0 build to flips).  WE must reform the mechanism of capital distribution (big banks) for capital to properly flow again.  Thus government should start its own bank for this purpose.  Then privatize it once the economy, and debt levels are sustainable.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:46 | 1886438 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

It's just the Soviet Union in a new hat.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:13 | 1886552 SofaPapa
SofaPapa's picture

+10.  Perfectly stated.  Both the US and Europe.  I don't care if you call it capitalism or communism.  Central planning doesn't work.  Never has, never will.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:47 | 1886443 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

TPTB will one way or another create crisis after crisis in various areas and asset classes til they have everyone totally confused and broke. Then they will let us bow down before them and accept the scraps they hand out after they have stolen everything while we were watching the news they were fabricating for us.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:48 | 1886451 Nate Taggart
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"They will print to infinity or this fucker is going to zero"  -Bears

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:49 | 1886457 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

So much printing and so little cash. Where is it all going?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:25 | 1886605 DrunkenMonkey
DrunkenMonkey's picture

Into central bank deposits to make the leverage numbers look less insane.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:53 | 1886476 jhm
jhm's picture

As a german citizen my answer is NO.

Printing is not an option. Period.

I am not responsible for that ponzi scheme the whole planet is engaged in and i am not willing to pay further. So sorry.

Let them bankster bastards drag us germans into a third war. They managed to get us into utter destruction often enough and always found good reason and enough blame and guilt for half the universe to suffer for generations. Of course, we alone, and only we alone, and absolutely without the shadow of a doubt we alone have been the single definite root and cause for all evil in Europe whatsoever since the start of the ice age. No one else. Only and always and surely the germans. Always!

We are used to be scapegoat and, hence, eternal paymaster, and we survived far worse before and will do so again.

Honestly, i don not care at all anymore if whatever country, mine included, blows due to this whole mess. Let everything fall apart, it will not be the end of the world as long as the planet does not stop rotating, generations before have managed in far worse circumstances, we will do so as well, if we like it or not.

Sooner or later the truth will come out and the schemes of the bastards will be dragged into light. Oh that will be a day, when sheeple wake up.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:09 | 1886536 shortus cynicus
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As German citizen you have nothing to say, Sir !!!

Just follow orders until Endsieg is reached.

Natural selection takes care of the rest.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:14 | 1886557 reload
reload's picture

Well said -

Out of interest do you think your views are fairly mainstream or becoming more mainstream?

Is there growing pressure on German politicians (we only ever get Euro friendly Germans on UK tv)

to do the right thing and keep the ECB operating according to its charter?

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