Q2 GDP To Be Second Consecutive Sub-1% Print Following Surge In Trade Deficit

Tyler Durden's picture

Update: According to Stone McCarthy the pain will be even worse: "we suspect GDP will be revised downward to around 0.5% from the 1.3% advance estimate."

Prepare for two consecutive quarters of sub 1% GDP. The culprit: the surge in the June trade deficit which came earlier at $53.1 billion, far, far higher than expectations of $48 billion, and much worse than the May $50.8 billion which also was a major downside miss. So following the revised 0.4% GDP in Q1, we are about to get a second revision to Q2 GDP that will bring it below 0.9%. And Obama bitches at the S&P for not believing (as neither does his former budget chief Orszag) that America will grow at a rate of 5% for the next decade. Sigh.

Goldman explains

The US trade balance unexpectedly deteriorated in June, falling to -$53.1bn from -$50.8bn previously. The weakness reflected a sizable decline exports. Real goods exports fell by 3.3% (mom), following a decline of 1.4% in May. Export growth was far weaker than assumed in the Commerce Department's advance estimate of Q2 GDP growth. Data released since the advance estimate was published (trade flows, inventories, and construction spending) imply a downward revision to Q2 GDP to around 0.9% (qoq ar) from 1.3% originally reported. Real goods imports declined slightly during the month, dropping by 0.2% (mom) after a 1.9% gain in May. The deterioration in the trade balance was concentrated in non-petroleum goods (the trade balance for oil was about unchanged).

And an even uglier number from SMRA:

According to the source data from the advance estimate of second quarter GDP, BEA had calculated a roughly $49.7 billion June trade deficit. The wider figures from the actual June data will likely provide a smaller than estimated contribution to Q2 GDP. In fact, we suspect GDP will be revised downward to around 0.5% from the 1.3% advance estimate.

At least going from 0.4% to 0.5% is, well, growth.

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Debtless's picture

Not to worry - we'll be out of this recession by the time it gets acknowledged. Or we'll all be dead from the zombies. Either way - nothing to worry about.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Friskies always puts a tiger in my tank.

Tiger in your tank

Manthong's picture

Just keeps getting better and better..

Cognitive Dissonance's picture


Time to revise the master plan. Or should I say that it's time to revise the PR master plan.

Sudden Debt's picture

I'll take a new Post-it note and start writting right away!


slaughterer's picture

Just revising the teleprompter would be a good start.

marsdefIAnCe's picture

if the teleprompter breaks before the markets, we might have a fighting chance at recovery...

tmosley's picture

What is that in real terms?  -4%?

Johnny Lawrence's picture

The market loves trade deficits and jobless claims!

Jim in MN's picture

They are forgetting to blame Japan?  Well Japan will just have to work harder to get back in the blame spotlight!


Nuclear commission erases children's exposure data

Japan's nuclear watchdog has been found to have erased from its website, data on the results of thyroid checkups for children in Fukushima Prefecture.

The Nuclear Safety Commission had uploaded the test results carried out by the government in March. More than 1,000 children aged 15 or younger were checked to see whether radioactive substances are accumulating in their thyroid.

youngman's picture

The key is that it is the revised number..no one reads that except us......the sheeple do not read past page 1......this is on page 30....

Rastadamus's picture

I can't wait to see him get reelected. Then I'll believe anything.

LongSoupLine's picture

You should have reached the "believe anything" point when Bush got his second term.

gtb's picture

Not too difficult to believe. His opponent was John Fuckin' Kerry.

DarkAgeAhead's picture

True but who'll be the GOP candidate this time around?  The John F@ckin' Kerry of the GOP.

We have no real leaders in power or running for power at this point in history.

JohnG's picture

After the debt ceiling charade, I'm thinkng the Boner will run.

citta vritti's picture

The kind of leadership we need we’ll never get. Continued crisis means we’ll get leadership, alright, but probably not to many ZHers’ liking. Better a do-nothing president (and Congress) who allow things to work, than another set of potato heads who tinker and tweak to take advantage of the crisis. Crisis always (I’ll go out on a limb there) ends up justifying government growth over individual liberty, if not by TPTB already in power, then by a new group (revolution) purporting to fix things. 

Start by acknowledging that various levels of government have taken on too large a role in the economy by virtue of promising (including regulating), taxing, borrowing, and spending for decades in ways that mean cutting any of them back will unsettle long established expectations, which if done in turn will mean severe recession or depression or whatever you want to call it for years until capital is reallocated and people and businesses begin to trust again that the system, once healthy, won’t be turned back into what it had become, a pinata for redistributing resources to those with the biggest sticks and greatest propensity for peeking through the blindfold.

DarkAgeAhead's picture

Agreed.  Great post.

The sad truth is that an alternate state always existed, but as you write, we may never again see that sort of leadership.

The less done by higher levels of government, i.e., the state level and up, the better shot we'll have.

Sudden Debt's picture

maybe if we give the billionaires a few trillion dollars, they'll create jobs? ....




LongSoupLine's picture

uhhhm, the Bernank already has that one patented.  It's called "QE".  He was almost on patent infringement territory with Paulson's "TARP" 

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Is this why futures exploded back to highs?

LawsofPhysics's picture

Futures always explode when margins on PMs get hiked.  The elastic will snap us back to reality shortly.

nantucket's picture

I've loved hearing the phrase "second half recovery" for over 10 years now...I've been hearing it since working in the financial industry since about the mid 90's. 

The best all time use of it was back in Jan-May of 2001.  every a-hole institutional equity salesmen that called on our account parroted that jerked-off mantra every day for 2 full quarters.  They trotted it back out in 2008, and now again in 2011.  Man I love the Fin industry,...nothing ever seems to change.

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

what? markets gone nowhere in 12 years and you say there is no growth?? unfuckingbelievable

SheepDog-One's picture

GDP -1%, record high foreclosures, unemployment, bankruptcies, poverty....hey I know lets have an election we'll keep our phony baloney jobs for sure!

SheepDog-One's picture

DOW now up +200? Completely insane manic depressive markets, totaly broken. Probably end down -300 or so. Real confidence inspiring FED, great job!

adr's picture

ahahahaah, they probably know that the computers are programmed to buy like mad on a headline print below 400k. Futures were way down and now we get a 200+ point opening surge after the employment data hits. The buy volume at the open was incredible, all computers.

Chipolte is up $8.50. At least that BS stock Sodastream is down 17% and that brings it down to the high point of JUNE, f'n BS.

And now a few moments later Dow 80, wait a few seconds later Dow 100, wait Dow 85, wait Dow 110, wait Dow 85.



Stoploss's picture

The whole thing appears to be riding on the RUT. It has not broken the weekly 200 day, yet the dow and s&p stay below. Pop the stops on the RUT and we get a ROUT fo sho.

Deepskyy's picture

Rally... fading

marcusfenix's picture

the markets bounce again off a temporary sub 400k claims print that will be 400k+ next week, with a GDP revision looming? 

just another day in schizophrenic paradise...

fuu's picture

For mercy's sake we should just take these markets out back and shoot them.

dwdollar's picture

Haha...  Bipolar indeed.

Spastica Rex's picture

Why can't we just move the zero three or four places to the left on the number line? Wouldn't that substantially improve GDP?

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

Obuma econmoron plans big vacation to help PCLN hit new highs..

watch him and his big ass wife live the good life ..rub the poor and soon to be poor white man's nose in his revenge for his father's tribe selling slaves to the west ( ironic so many american blacks think the white devil was out in the bush getting slaves)

johngaltfla's picture

That's got to be bullish. Right? I mean we need some excuse to print even more money and get total Fed holdings over $20 trillion.

slaughterer's picture

No need to panic.  GDP revision is on August 26th.  We all know what comes before it.

GolfHatesMe's picture

Didn't I read here that .5% GDP was from squatters rent.  Awesome,  If we could just triple the amount of people to stop paying their mortgage, we should print at 1.5% for Q3

Nate H's picture

Q2 GDP revision will be to much lower than 0.9% -probably 0.0% and even negative. Government miscalculated the 400billion in govt spending - it will hit in next revision

and what will policy wonks say then - in the midst of reflation central bank expansion and guarantees we still have negative GDP?  Many doors will shut..

nufio's picture

i thnk silver is just waiting for my call options to expire before moving up again.

chinawholesaler's picture

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